Risk contagion in the banking network: New evidence from China

Based on data from 111 Chinese banks over the 2013–2016 period, this paper estimates the interbank bilateral lending matrix using the maximum entropy method. The estimated matrix is used to simulate the effects of credit and liquidity shocks on China’s banking network. Simulation results show that, under the extreme pressure scenario, the contagion arising from a liquidity shock is significantly stronger than the effect of a credit shock, indicating the importance of liquidity in the banking system. The contagion effect arising from a credit shock does not vary much over the sample period. However, the contagion effect arising from a liquidity shock decreases significantly, which could be attributed to contraction in interbank business due to stricter interbank business supervision. The simulation results also identify the most important and most vulnerable nodes of the banking system. An increase in the level of capital level can enhance the ability of banks to withstand credit and liquidity shocks. Our analysis also suggests that risk contagion faced by China’s banks varies across banking network structures.     

Environmental Credit Risk Management in Banks and Financial Service Institutions

How do Canadian banks integrate environmental risks into corporate lending and where are they located compared with their global peers? In this paper we report a mixed method analysis of the integration of environmental risks into the credit management. The qualitative and quantitative analyses suggest that all analyzed Canadian commercial banks, credit unions and Export Development Canada manage environmental risks in credit management to avoid financial risks. Some of the institutions even connect environmental and sustainability issues with their general business strategies. Compared with other countries, Canadian banks are best in class, as all six Canadian commercial banks, comprising over 90 percent of Canadian assets, systematically examine environmental risks for credits, loans and mortgages. We conclude that Canadian banks are proactive regarding environmental examinations of loans and that there is a need for a more accountancy related reporting on environmental risk management in financial institutions. Further research is needed to be able to calculate costs and benefits of integrating environmental and sustainability issues into the credit risk management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Topological properties of reconstructed credit networks and banking systemic risk

Financial bipartite networks provide channels for contagion risks and their topological properties determine financial stability. We enrich the bipartite network reconstruction methods proposed by Ramadiah et al. (2020) and extend them to the Chinese banking system. By comparing the reproducibility of the real credit market and the corresponding systemic risk, the impact of topological properties for different reconstructed bipartite networks on financial stability is analyzed. The empirical evidence shows that network reconstruction methods based on maximum entropy ensembles capture more properties in the real credit network. It also highlights that the different systemic risk level is mainly contributed by the topological properties based on common exposures. These analyses for topological properties provide regulatory insights for systemic risk prevention. It shows that reducing credit similarity across banks while increasing credit diversification in different sectors helps to control systemic risk. The results imply the possibility of increasing financial stability through the macro-regulation of the credit market structure.     

Off the radar: Factors behind the growth of shadow banking in Europe

This paper uses novel data from the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem on non-bank financial intermediation to investigate the potential factors of shadow banking growth for a panel of twenty-four countries in the European Union (EU). We find that the EU shadow banking system is highly procyclical and positively related to increasing demand by long-term institutional investors and to more stringent capital regulation. We show that individual entities in the shadow banking system can act as both complements and substitutes to traditional banking. In addition, we estimate four country-specific models using a Bayesian estimation method. We supplement the panel model estimates, which serve as a priori information, with data from a specific economy. We assert that, although some shadow banking determinants are uniform across countries, other may have heterogeneous effects across countries because of country-specific characteristics.     

MODELS OF BANKING INSTABILITY: A PARTIAL REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract. This paper critically examines the theoretical literature on banking instability that has followed Diamond and Dybvig (1983). It explores the extent to which it (a) explains banking instability within a theoretical context in which financial intermediaries improve on unintermediated markets, and (b) justifies government involvement in the financial intermediation industry. It suggests that the literature has yet to provide a satisfactory theoretical basis for banking instability as such since the intermediaries which arise from it are peculiar mutual funds that bear little resemblance to real-world banks. In addition, the paper challenges the widespread belief that this literature provides a sound foundation for government involvement in the industry. It suggests that arguments for government intervention are open to objection on various grounds, the most important one being that they are inconsistent with the existence of properly motivated financial intermediation in these models.     

Financial intermediation costs in low income countries: The role of regulatory,institutional, and macroeconomic factors

We analyze factors driving persistently higher financial intermediation costs in low-income countries (LICs) relative to emerging market (EM) country comparators. Using the net interest margin as a proxy for financial intermediation costs at the bank level, we find that within LICs a substantial part of the variation in interest margins can be explained by bank-specific factors: margins tend to increase with higher riskiness of credit portfolio, lower bank capitalization (or lower risk aversion), and smaller bank size. Overall, we find that concentrated market structures and lack of competition in LICs banking systems and institutional weaknesses constitute the key impediments preventing financial intermediation costs from declining. Our results provide strong evidence that policies aimed at fostering banking competition and strengthening institutional frameworks can reduce intermediation costs in LICs.     

Are universal banks bad for financial stability? Germany during the world financial crisis

This case study explores the contribution of universal banking to financial stability in Germany during the recent financial crisis. Germany is a prototype for universal banking and has suffered from a rather small number of banking crises in the past. We review the banking literature and analyze the major institutional and regulatory features of the German financial system to establish a nexus between universal banking and stability. We focus on the following questions. First, which banks failed and did they because they were universal or because of other reasons? Second, which types of distress beside outright bank failures resulted from the crisis and how did German universal banks dealt with them? We show that only few German banks failed and these banks did so not because they were universal banks but because they were publicly owned. Most banks instead contributed to reduce the impact of the recent crisis.     

中国影子银行部门系统性风险的形成、影响与应对

本文分析了影子银行风险传染机制及其影响,在违约风险基于会计账户传染的马尔科夫过程假设下,运用投入产出法构建影子银行系统性风险测度模型,以2007-2012年中国影子银行业务数据进行检验,结果显示：信托公司部门是主要的风险源,银行部门是系统性风险最主要的承担者,观测期内影子银行部门系统性风险整体呈现上升趋势。防控系统性风险应从影子银行业务风险隔离机制、资本与杠杆率监管、信息透明度、宏观审慎框架和风险应急机制等建设着手。     

Structural changes,competition and bank stability in Malaysia’s dual banking system

This paper assesses Malaysia’s competition landscape and its risk implications subsequent to conventional banking consolidation and Islamic banking penetration in the aftermath of the 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis. Employing a panel sample of conventional and Islamic commercial banks, it arrives at the following conclusions. First, the consolidation exercise, which has led to a significant reduction in the number of domestic commercial banks, has not stifled banking competition. Second, the paper provides empirical support for the competition-stability relationship, particularly for the conventional banking sector. Islamic banking sector risk appears to be neutral to market competition or market power, although there is limited evidence that it increases with overall market concentration. Finally, the analysis uncovers the risk-increasing effect of the Islamic banking market structure on the conventional banking sector. By contrast, conventional banking market concentration tends to reduce the credit risk of Islamic banks.     

Credit risk pricing and the rationality of lending decision-making within dual banking systems: A parametric approach

The reduction of non-performing loans, and making correct provisions for them, plays a primary role in the management and minimization of banking credit risk. However, these actions depend primarily upon the cost at which banks may dispose of these bad loans. Hence, this study aims to perceive the price of banks’ credit risk via estimating the shadow price of non-performing loans. We assess and compare the perceived price of the credit risk of Islamic and conventional banks operating in 9 countries from the Middle East and Asia, using a quadratic directional distance function. Following this, we evaluate the impact of different settings of directional vectors on shadow prices by conducting a risk-sensitivity analysis. Applying bootstrap regression, the factors affecting NPLs’ prices are further investigated. The paper concludes that the estimation of the shadow prices of bad loans can provide important elements in favor of credit risk management and, therefore, credit risk mitigation.     

Portfolio diversification and systemic risk in interbank networks

This paper contributes to a growing literature on the ambiguous effects of risk diversification. In our model, banks hold claims on each other’s liabilities that are marked-to-market on the individual financial leverage of the obligor. The probability of systemic default is determined using a passage-problem approach in a network context and banks are able to internalize the network externalities of contagion through their holdings. Banks do not internalize the social costs to the real economy of a systemic default of the banking system. We investigate the optimal diversification strategy of banks in the face of opposite and persistent economic trends that are ex-ante unknown to banks. We find that the optimal level of risk diversification may be interior or extremal depending on banks exposure the external assets and that a tension arises whereby individual incentives favor a banking system that is over-diversified with respect to the level of diversification that is desirable in the social optimum.     

Does transparency of central banks communication affect credit market? Empirical evidence for advanced and emerging markets

This study examines the effect of the transparency of central banks communication on credit market. In particular, this study investigates how central banks’ effort to provide more detailed information about their objectives regarding the price stability (monetary policy transparency) and financial stability (financial stability transparency) policies are able to mitigate information asymmetry on credit market, through the net interest margin charged by the banks to engage in financial intermediation (credit spread). The findings denote central bank transparency is able to reduce the credit spread. Additionally, the evidence suggests the effect of central bank transparency on the credit spread is greater in emerging markets, where there is less information available on credit market. In brief, transparency in central banks communication is an important tool to mitigate the information asymmetry in the credit market.     

Why Does the Negotiable Certificate of Deposit Matter for Chinese Banking?

The Negotiable Certificate of Deposit (NCD) is a major financial instrument in China; the value of outstanding Chinese NCDs was approximately RMB8 trillion (equivalent to USD1.2 trillion) in mid‐2017. This article reviews the most recent developments in the Chinese NCD, including its effect on interest rate pass‐through and money creation. Empirical results show that the introduction of the NCD in 2014 influenced the relationship between the policy rate and the lending rate of Chinese commercial banks, and the interest rate pass‐through from the policy rate to the lending rate of commercial banks improved subsequently. However, this process has also been accompanied by maturity mismatch, increasing leverage, and decreasing credit ratings for the assets of banks and other financial institutions. Consequently, systemic risk in the Chinese banking system has increased.     

Robustness of banking networks to idiosyncratic and systemic shocks: a network-based approach

We propose a network-based structural model of credit risk to demonstrate how idiosyncratic and systemic shocks propagate across the banking system and evaluate the costs. The banking system is built as a network of heterogeneous banks which are connected with one another. In such a system, single credit events propagate through the interbank market from debtors to creditors and across the system. The shock is imposed as an unexpected event. We demonstrate that while idiosyncratic shocks cannot substantially disturb the banking system, a systemic shock of even a moderate magnitude can be highly detrimental. Such shock includes a huge contagious potential. We demonstrate that the costs of the shock are largely determined by the extent of contagion and range from negligible to catastrophic. The results imply that a severe crisis has to be initiated by a systemic shock of at least moderate magnitude. Capital ratio and the bank size are two additional factors of the banking system stability. Finally, credit risk analysis is sensitive to the network topology and exhibits a profound nonlinear characteristic.     

ISLAMIC BANKING AND FINANCE: RECENT EMPIRICAL LITERATURE AND DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

This paper examines the recent empirical literature in Islamic banking and finance, highlights the main findings and provides a guide for future research. Early studies focus on the efficiency, production technology and general performance features of Islamic versus conventional banks, whereas more recent work looks at profit‐sharing and loss‐bearing behaviour, competition, risks as well as other dimensions such as small business lending and financial inclusion. Apart from key exceptions, the empirical literature suggests no major differences between Islamic and conventional banks in terms of their efficiency, competition and risk features (although small Islamic banks are found to be less risky than their conventional counterparts). There is some evidence that Islamic finance aids inclusion and financial sector development. Results from the empirical finance literature, dominated by studies that focus on the risk/return features of mutual funds, finds that Islamic funds perform as well, if not better, than conventional funds – there is little evidence that they perform worse than standard industry benchmarks.     

What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation

Using a two-step system GMM approach on a unique bank-level dataset for the period 1998/99–2013/14, this paper tries to explore the key determinants of credit risk in the Indian banking industry. The main premise of this paper is that, along with regulatory and institutional factors, both macroeconomic and bank-specific variables influence the formation of credit risk in a banking system, and their influences vary across ownership groups. The empirical findings suggest that lower profitability, more diversification in the banking business, the large size of banks and a higher concentration of banks in lending increase the probability of defaults in India. We find a significant degree of persistence in credit risk, and the observed persistence is higher in the gross non-performing loans (NPLs) specification relative to what has been observed in the net NPLs specification. In the case of public sector banks, NPLs are more sensitive to internal bank-specific factors, while for private and foreign banks, macroeconomic and industry-related factors play a significant role in determining credit risk. Our results are robust for different panel data estimation models and sub-samples of ownership groups. The findings of this paper provide important insights into the formation of default risk in the banking system of an emerging market economy.     

FINANCIAL CRISIS RESOLUTION – THE STATE AS A LENDER OF LAST RESORT?

What is the theoretical basis for spending billions of dollars to fight the financial and economic crisis? Neither the model of an omnipotent state nor that of a welfare‐maximising state seems appropriate. We propose a model of a contractual state resulting from an exchange of protection against systemic risks against regulation of the banking sector. During the years of globalisation governments have neglected to install institutions to reduce systematic risks and currently pay the price for their laxity. We evaluate what can be undertaken in both the short and long run and how far a framework can be enforced internationally.     

Indirect Convertibility,Equity‐Based Banking and Financial Stability

Banking reform proposals put forward in the wake of the recent financial crisis maintain that equity‐based banking would be stable and would prevent bank runs. This article argues that complementing this form of banking with an indirect convertibility monetary standard and thereby dispensing with base money would enhance financial stability further. Banks would not hold a distinctive asset (base money) that would be called upon by customers at short notice, thereby removing the possibility of bank runs. No discrepancy in value between the two sides of a bank's balance sheet would arise as its assets (securitised loans) would be marked to market. Unlike other recent contributions, the intermediation model outlined here is not ‘limited purpose’ in nature as banks would not be restricted in the form of lending activity they can pursue. Common sources of banking and financial instability – liquidity risk, solvency risk, moral hazard – would be absent.     

Financial stability of Islamic banking and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council

Using a sample of 76 banks from the Gulf Cooperation Council region, we use accounting- as well as market-based measures of financial stability to examine whether Islamic banks outperformed conventional banks in the time of financial shocks during the period 2000–2013. We find that the difference between the two banking types was initially not significant during the GFC. However, when the financial shock spread to the real economy during the later phases of the crisis, Islamic banks suffered a significantly higher level of financial instability than conventional banks. This result holds true for large banks but not for small Islamic banks. Small Islamic banks demonstrated a relatively better handling of the economic downturn than large Islamic banks, supporting the argument that Islamic banks are more stable when they operate at a small scale but lose this stability when they increase their scale of operations. Hence, while Islamic banks may have escaped the consequences of highly volatile financial instruments, they were not spared from a major shock in the real economic sectors.     

浅谈我国金融风险成因分析及会计防范措施

银行经营活动的运作过程,与会计工作十分密切,几乎每一笔业务都需要银行会计的核算与操作,防范金融风险的前提是防范银行会计风险。我国金融风险的成因有:商业银行的资产结构不合理,资产的盈利性及流动性差;金融机构采取粗放式经营方式,盲目扩张;金融机构内部管理松弛,运作不规范,约束机制不健全;银行自身风险意识差;中央银行的监管侧重于计划型和行政性、不适应市场经济。