房产市场虚拟需求的影响分析

当前，上海、杭州和宁波等城市的房产市场发展迅速，在房产投资迅速增加、房产价格大幅度上升的同时，消费需求保持旺盛增长趋势，整个市场呈现出供需两旺的局面。市场真的形势一片大好吗？经过对几个增长较快的房产市场的需求结构分析，可以发现虚拟需求在这几个房产市场发展较快的城市普遍存在，而且形成的市场力量不可小看，因此有必要对虚拟需求的产生机理、现状及其对房产市场的影响进行分析。一、虚拟需求的产生机理虚拟需求是市场的自然产物，产生的前提条件包括两方面：第一是处于卖方市场，住房需求的强烈和房产开发的有限两者形成…     

创新水平对电信设备企业出口影响的实证研究

本文使用中国电信设备企业的面板数据,首先运用固定效应模型与随机效应模型,实证检验了影响中国电信设备企业出口的因素。然后考虑到企业出口决定和出口量是两个相互联系的过程,我们采用Heckman两步选择模型进行估计发现:创新水平、人均工资、人均产出、以及宏观经济政策对中国电信设备企业的出口增加决定和出口增加都存在显著为正的影响。     

需求驱动下的经济增长及增长中的价格水平波动——基于投资与消费本质属性分析框架的阐释

基于投资与消费本质属性的理论框架和实证分析表明:(1)消费需求是经济增长的最初需求动力,对经济增长的驱动作用由强变弱再变强,受消费需求导向的投资需求对经济增长的驱动作用由弱变强再变弱;(2)均衡增长状态下,产出与投资、消费同步增长,价格水平基本稳定;(3)相对于消费需求而言,投资需求的"投资滞后性"和"投资惯性"的存在使投资常与消费非同步增长,导致经济失衡和价格水平规律性波动,即经济发展早期阶段的价格水平上升多为消费需求拉动,经济发展中后期阶段的价格水平上升多为成本推动,而结构性价格水平上升会随着消费结构升级而成为一种常态;(4)1978年以来,中国经济增长的总体态势良好,但长期高投资率导致的强"投资惯性"致使当前产能过剩及通货膨胀预期并存,对中国经济持续稳定增长形成较大威胁。政府应通过以消费结构升级为导向扩大投资,努力提高农村居民收入水平,推进农村居民消费结构升级和稳定粮食价格等措施进行化解。。     

基础工作决定成败——电信业的成功从营业厅做起

作为我国电信行业的三大巨头：中国移动、中国电信、中国联通，几乎占据了我国电信（移动电话和固定电话）业务的全部。目前我国手机的用户已经超过7亿部，而固定电话的数量尽管趋于下降，但仍能在2亿部以上。     

非线性定价下的移动通信需求行为

本文研究多产品移动通信业务以及非线性定价条件下的消费者需求理论,并利用话单层级的用户消费数据,建立离散选择结构计量模型,并对用户资费选择行为与个人属性、资费属性和换网行为之间的关系进行研究,最后利用估计出的需求结构参数,就资费优化对企业收入和用户资费选择概率的影响进行分析。     

基于客户需求的物流企业市场定位问题的研究

从物流客户需求的角度出发研究了物流企业市场定位中的市场细分、目标市场选择和相关营销策略问题,分别从国民经济其他产业的行业客户需求、区域客户需求、单个最终物流用户需求以及层次性的市场物流需求等几个角度研究了物流企业的市场定位问题,并在每个角度的研究中指出了存在的问题,给出了相关建议和理论构想.     

移动电话引发的腐败现象

据报载,目前,我国拥有移动电话数不断增多,其中中国电信用户达到1000万户,中国联通用户也超过20万户。这意味着我国移动电话用户总数跃升为继美国、日本后的第三位。然而,移动电话用户总数在世界的排名,却并不能以此论证普通中国人对移动电话的消费情况,因为在移动电话购置中,是公款使移动电话消费成为热点,是公款使移动电话用户数扶摇直上。据《工人日报》载,江西省某市邮电部门统计,1994年至1996年上半年,该市销售移动电话2000余部,其中85%以上是公款购置。江苏盐城市去年初清理出公费购置话机4603部,占该市购置总数的60%。据湖南省统计,全省约40万部移动电话,其中公款购置的约有20万部,占了一大半。     

未雨绸缪:电信业务模式创新中的服务质量研究

分析电信业务模式创新六个主要途径对服务质量的影响，包括需求和市场分析、价值链重构、市场营销、客户服务以及管理和监督，探讨如何在创新过程中为业务开展过程中获得更高的服务质量打下基础，特别是针对目前各个运营商非常重视的增值业务服务质量。作为电信服务质量定义的扩展，本文还对电信服务软质量的概念进行了探讨，进一步丰富电信服务软质量的内涵。     

基于灰建模技术的移动电话通话业务预测研究

根据灰色GM(1,l)模型的建模机理,利用2006-2010年我国电信业务的统计数据,构建了中国电信移动电话通话业务GM(1,l)预测模型,对十二五期间中国国移动电话通话业务量进行预测。实例分析表明,建立的GM(1,1)模型具有较高拟合精度,十二五时期中国国移动电话通话业务量呈现高速增长态势。     

住宅房地产的需求市场细分

何谓市场细分?市场细分就是对用户需求的细分,是对大市场上辨别不同需求的用户群,并加以分类的过程。市场细分的前提是用房需求的异质和差异性,这样才有必要对市场细分,开发出不同的产品。众所周知,现在房地产市场相当不景气,由卖方市场转为买方市场,房产市场低迷状态已持续很长时间了。然而,人人知道人必须有房居住,人     

Network effects with quality change: an empirical analysis of the Japanese mobile telecommunications market, 1995–2001

This study assesses the role of network effects under rapid quality change in the Japanese mobile telecommunications market by utilizing a simple framework based on a discrete choice model of product differentiation. The results indicate the existence of network effects in the Japanese mobile telecommunications market during the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, changes in the value of mobile telecommunications services mainly depend on quality changes; the contribution of network effects is negligible. Additionally, over time, network effects make a diminishing contribution to improving consumers' valuations. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

住房市场的刚性需求与投资需求测算——以北京市为例

对微观经济学中的需求价格弹性进行了修正,提出了测算住房市场中刚性需求和投资需求的方法,并实际测算了北京市住房市场的刚性需求和投资需求。结果表明,北京市住房市场刚性需求和投资需求的比例在每一年度都不尽相同,部分年份刚性需求占主导地位,部分年份投资需求占主导地位;同时,投资需求和住房价格增长率之间呈现很好的同步关系,在投资需求占主导地位的年份,住房价格增长速度明显加快。     

The effect of enhanced competition on the equity values of the regional bell operating companies

Recent developments in the telecommunications industry have increased the likelihood that the Regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) will face new competition in the market for local telephone services. These developments include (1) regulatory decisions by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to facilitate competitive entry or the application of new technologies (e.g. personal communications services) to the local communications market, and (2) strategic decisions by AT&T, MCI Communications, and Time-Warner to enter the local communications market. The entry of new firms is expected to reduce the cash flows of the RBOCs. Using the event study methodology, this paper examines the announcement effects of several of these developments on the values of the RBOCs. Collectively, the announcements are associated with a significant decline in the aggregate value of the RBOCs.     

Property taxation and the demand for housing: An econometric analysis

There is disagreement among economists regarding the effect of a local increase in property taxation on the housing market. In defining the price of housing services studies of the demand for housing have treated the property tax exclusively as an excise tax on housing consumption. Two recent theoretical developments suggest this is a misrepresentation of the tax. One theory holds that the excise effects of property taxation may be shifted backward to the factors employed in the production of housing. The other theory concludes that the property tax is not an excise, but rather serves as an efficient price for local public services. To investigate these hypotheses, data from the Annual Housing Survey were employed to estimate a housing demand model which included the net effective property tax rate among the set of independent variables. In addition to revealing the property tax-housing demand relationship, the model provides more reliable estimates of income and price elasticities by eliminating specification errors found in previous studies. Results indicate that the property tax reduces the housing consumption of central city homeowners, but does not distort the suburban housing market.     

Optimal Two‐Part Pricing under Demand Uncertainty

This paper examines the pricing behavior of a risk‐averse monopolistic firm under demand uncertainty. The firm produces a single good at a constant marginal cost. To facilitate sales, the firm uses a two‐part pricing contract that includes a membership fee and a selling price per unit. The good is sold to a continuum of heterogeneous consumers who are subject to a common demand shock. We show that the global and marginal effects of risk aversion are to push the unit price closer to the constant marginal cost and to shrink the market coverage so as to limit the firm’s risk exposure to the demand uncertainty. The more risk‐averse firm as such charges a higher membership fee to consumers. We further show that an increase in the fixed cost of production induces the firm to lower (raise) the unit price, to raise (lower) the membership fee, and to shrink (enlarge) the market coverage under decreasing (increasing) absolute risk aversion. The firm’s optimal two‐part pricing contract, however, is unaffected by changes in the fixed cost under constant absolute risk aversion. Finally, we show that a mean‐preserving‐spread increase in the demand uncertainty induces the firm to lower the unit price, to raise the membership fee, and to shrink the market coverage under either decreasing or constant absolute risk aversion. The firm’s risk preferences as such play a pivotal role in determining the optimal two‐part pricing under demand uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the Demand for Housing, Land, and Neighbourhood Characteristics

This paper provides estimates of the structure of demand for individual housing and neighbourhood characteristics and for land in two British cities. We estimate a hedonic price function, and from this obtain the implicit prices of house attributes. These prices are used to estimate a demand system for each city. These perform well, and enable us to calculate price and income elasticities for each of the non-dichotomous characteristics and for land. To counteract criticisms of demand estimates derived within the hedonic framework a method is developed for selecting an appropriate set of instrumental variables. Estimates derived from this method, however, differ only slightly from those obtained using the conventional techniques. Several features of these estimates provide insights into the unusual characteristics of the British housing market, the effects of constraints imposed by land use planning, and the effects of changing income distribution on the structure of demand.     

Anti-Abortion Activities and the Market for Abortion Services: Protest as a Disincentive

Cross-section data for the US are used to estimate the effects of anti-abortion activity on the demand and supply of abortion services in 1992. Empirical results show that anti-abortion activity had a signi~cant negative impact on both the demand and supply of abortion services. Using estimates from a two-stage least-squares estimation of demand and supply, anti-abortion activities (measured as picketing with physical contact or blocking of patients) have decreased the market equilibrium abortion rate by an estimated 19 percent and raised the price of an abortion by approximately 4.3 percent. Taken together, the empirical results show that anti-abortion activities have been successful in making abortion services scarcer.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Precautionary Demand for Oil

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market, which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future supplies. A two‐stage identification procedure is used. First, daily changes in the futures–spot price spread proxy for precautionary demand shocks and the path of oil prices is estimated. This information is then exploited to restrict the oil price response in a vector autoregression. Impulse responses suggest that such shocks reduce output and raise prices. Historical decomposition shows that they contributed significantly to the US recessions in the 1990s and in the early 2000s, but not to the most recent slump. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.