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1.
In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However, predictions of the available null-model methods can be derived analytically only under assumptions (e.g., sparseness of the network) that are unrealistic for most economic networks like the world trade web (WTW). In this paper we study the evolution of the WTW using a recently-proposed family of null network models. The method allows to analytically obtain the expected value of any network statistic across the ensemble of networks that preserve on average some local properties, and are otherwise fully random. We compare expected and observed properties of the WTW in the period 1950–2000, when either the expected number of trade partners or total country trade is kept fixed and equal to observed quantities. We show that, in the binary WTW, node-degree sequences are sufficient to explain higher-order network properties such as disassortativity and clustering-degree correlation, especially in the last part of the sample. Conversely, in the weighted WTW, the observed sequence of total country imports and exports are not sufficient to predict higher-order patterns of the WTW. We discuss some important implications of these findings for international-trade models. 相似文献
2.
Different theoretical perspectives support opposite views on convergence: although the dominant view is that convergence is the inevitable outcome of globalization, divergentists (that is, world-system economists and, potentially, also evolutionary geographic ones) argue that convergence forces could be annihilated by the need to keep power relationships within the international division of labor. Even when limiting the convergence issue to international trade, the debate has so far been inconclusive, because various studies have dealt with different and/or short time series or selected too small and different sets of countries. Moreover, none of these studies have analyzed trade patterns and have instead been limited to the aggregate value. Here, through a social network analysis, we examine the world trade patterns from 1980 to 2016 (1980–1992, 1993–2007 and 2008–2016) of at least 164 countries, which have been divided into import and export patterns and into four groups of countries: from core countries to far periphery ones. We test the convergence hypothesis in two directions: the level and trend of convergence, and its possible determination by means of structural or economic globalization, measured in terms of exchanges density and economic values, respectively. We have found that the convergence hypothesis only seems to be confirmed when considering the pure structural aspect and core countries. Conversely, economic convergence—which also includes the structural dimension—has been found to be high for core countries and to increase over time. Moreover, our analysis shows that economic globalization influences convergence, albeit in a strongly negative way. Therefore, our findings seem to support divergentists and the convergence hypothesis should be rejected. 相似文献
3.
This paper provides an analysis of outsourcing and trade in a spatial model à la Hotelling. In this setting, we discuss the trade-off between transport-cost-related disadvantages and outsourcing-related production cost advantages of a large economy and we investigate how the existence of national transport costs influences both the structure of industrial production and the pattern of final goods trade. In addition, the model gives a rich picture of the possible welfare effects of trade liberalization. In particular, we show that a final goods exporting country definitely gains from economic integration, while a final goods importing country may lose. Finally, when lowering domestic outsourcing activities, trade liberalization may reduce world welfare, even if pro-competitive effects lead to a decline in consumer prices. 相似文献
4.
This paper proposes a simple procedure for obtaining monthly assessments of short-run perspectives for quarterly world GDP and trade. It combines high-frequency information from emerging and advanced countries so as to explain quarterly national accounts variables through bridge models. The union of all bridge equations leads to our world bridge model (WBM). The WBM approach of this paper is new for two reasons: its equations combine traditional short-run bridging with theoretical level-relationships, and it is the first time that forecasts of world GDP and trade have been computed for both advanced and emerging countries on the basis of a real-time database of approximately 7000 time series. Although the performances of the equations that are searched automatically should be taken as a lower bound, our results show that the forecasting ability of the WBM is superior to the benchmark. Finally, our results confirm that the use of revised data leads to models’ forecasting performances being overstated significantly. 相似文献
5.
This paper describes an extension of Duchin's world trade model to include the explicit representation of transportation costs, permitting the endogenous determination of bilateral trade flows and region-specific prices. The original model is a linear program that, based on comparative advantage and the minimization of factor use, determines regional production and trade flows as well as world prices and scarcity rents for m regions, n good, and k factors. The new world trade model with bilateral trade achieves its objectives by introducing transportation services and geographically dependent transportation requirements for each traded good and each pair of potential trade partners. The formulation of this model and its major properties are presented, and results from a preliminary analysis with 11 regions, eight goods, four transportation sectors, and six factors of production are reported and compared with corresponding results from the world trade model. On the basis of this comparison, we conclude that transportation costs have little impact on a region's total imports or exports of a given commodity. 相似文献
6.
The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices. To this end, most previous studies used aggregate trade data. To avoid aggregation biases potentially hidden in aggregate data, recent studies have relied on bilateral trade data. Since import and export price data is not available on bilateral level, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows. The models are applied between the US and her 19 industrial trading partners using recent advances in time-series modeling. 相似文献
7.
Non-survey techniques have previously been devised for adjusting regional technical requirements matrices so as to account for commodity imports. Surrogates such as the location quotient have been utilised for estimating trading coefficients in a regional input output table. Extensions of these techniques to an interregional system are generally considered. It is shown that non-survey techniques are conceptually improved as a result of this extension. Particular regard is given to calibration methods that achieve consistency between estimates of exports and imports within an interregional system. The RAS method and some variants are compared and an additive algorithm is demonstrated to be efficient for this purpose. 相似文献
8.
- ? A new indicator of exposure to the world trade slowdown points to Asian economies like Taiwan and Korea being most exposed, but also to significant vulnerability in Germany. Better insulated from the slowdown are the less open economies, such as the US, Brazil and India.
- ? Asian economies’ exposure is greater due to their generally high export orientations and strong trade integration with China – especially significant given the escalation of US‐China trade tensions. Likewise, Germany is highly export‐oriented but is also specialised in capital goods exports, which tend to weaken most in trade downturns.
- ? The indicator used is based on factors including trade openness, export specialisation in weakening sectors and exposure to spillovers from US‐China tariffs. It explains around 40% of the pattern of economic slowdown from 2017–2019 across a sample of key economies.
相似文献
9.
- World trade growth has slowed sharply in 2015, with our forecast for growth just 1% for the year. High frequency indicators suggest a stagnant picture, with trade in key emerging markets (EM) especially weak. Import growth in the US and Eurozone remains positive and is holding up world trade, but there are downside risks here also. Very slow world trade growth risks incentivising competitive depreciations and depressing global bond yields.
- In August our OE export indicator fell to its lowest level since late‐2012 –; the point when the US announced ‘QE3’. Its weakness is corroborated by other indicators such as container trade and air freight.
- The main drag to world trade is from emerging markets, especially the BRIC‐4 whose import volumes contracted sharply in H1 2015, cutting more than 1 percentage point from annual growth in goods trade.
- US and European import growth looks stronger and should be supported in 2016 by firming GDP growth. This is an important support for world trade, but the latest data suggest some downside risks here also.
- The weaker world demand growth is then the more that trade will appear like a zero‐sum game where a country can benefit only at the expense of its competitors. This has potentially important implications for asset prices: in particular, countries may turn to competitive depreciation, adding further to global deflationary pressures and holding down global bond yields.
相似文献
10.
A number of recent studies have tested the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, for various country pairs. These have found that risk can increase as well as decrease trade, but that oftentimes industries are not affected. This study examines trade between the United States and Spain over the period from 1962 to 2009, for 131 U.S. export industries and 88 import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has short-run and long-run effects in only a fraction of the cases, but that exports respond more to increased uncertainty than imports do. In all, only 35 of the 74 U.S. export industries are affected (11 positive, 24 negative), whilst only three out of 37 import industries have positive coefficients and 11 have negative ones. We find no evidence that durable or nondurable goods are more likely to respond to volatility, whilst small industries or specialized goods might show more of a positive response. 相似文献
11.
区域经济一体化作为国家或地区实行某种经济联合的过程 ,在第二次世界大战后得到迅速发展。区域经济一体化对国际贸易的增长、贸易格局、商品结构、国际市场竞争和国际贸易体制都产生较大影响。 相似文献
12.
Recent research on trade and multinationals highlights that multinational firms’ integration strategies are complex and the degree of vertical integration varies in a multilateral world with many possible locations of activity. In particular, multinationals control a large fraction of trade within the block of developed countries. The most important regional trade agreements (RTAs) are signed between members of the very same block of economies. This gives rise to the question asked in the present paper: what is the impact of RTAs on FDI in an interdependent world? Recent spatial HAC estimation techniques are applied to both estimation and testing. 相似文献
13.
The world’s nations often produce commodities for which they have no apparent comparative advantage, and do so with techniques
that are not particularly efficient by world standards. These inefficiencies may arise from various forms of trade and domestic
distortions, as described in Chau et al., Int Econ Rev 44:1079–1095, ( 2003). We estimate these distortions for 33 countries of the world using a newly compiled data set. We find that domestic distortions
tend to be slightly more important than trade distortions. For the average country, revenues in the agricultural sector would
be 26% higher if domestic distortions were eliminated, but 21% higher if trade distortions were eliminated. Our measures of
trade and domestic distortions across countries provide a complement to measures of protectionism such as producer subsidy
equivalents. 相似文献
14.
Many organizations are devoting enormous amounts of financial and human resources to improve corporate communications. Among the many forms of communication produced by firms, the Chief Executive Officer's (CEO) letter to shareholders is perhaps the most strategic in conveying the well-being and future direction of the enterprise. These letters have become even more visible with the advent of World Wide Web and its use as a primary forum for communicating the CEO's message. Surprisingly, there has been little research into dimensions that characterize the effectiveness of the CEO's letter and how this communication may benefit the overall enterprise in terms of improved financial position. Utilizing both theoretic and practical perspectives as well as the web-based letters of prominent organizations, this study frames CEO's letter effectiveness (CLE) along dimensions of credibility, efficacy, commitment , and responsibility . These first-order constructs appear to be statistically coaligned by a second-order construct of CLE. In turn, CLE is shown to be directly associated with favourable financial performance in terms of share price and trading activity. This study provides a useful framework for assessing strategic communication through the CEO's letter and for operationalizing a key dependent variable in future studies related to strategic corporate communications through digital media. 相似文献
15.
一个小孩正在河边走着,忽然看到水边有一只陷在网里的鳄鱼。鳄鱼也看到了男孩,求道:“你能可怜可怜我,把我救出去吗? 相似文献
16.
This paper describes the World Trade Model, a linear program that determines world prices, scarcity rents, and international trade flows based on comparative advantage in a world economy with m regions, n goods, and k factors. The new model generalizes the World Model of Leontief et al. (1977) in ways that make it particularly useful for analyzing scenarios about sustainable development. Major properties of the model are demonstrated, and sources of the gains from trade are identified for the world as a whole and for individual regions. Illustrative results are reported for a 10-region, 8-good, 3-factor model of the world economy. 相似文献
17.
富有的家族背景及商人的家庭熏陶。在战火硝烟中攫取财富,在冒险中追逐刺激,乐此不疲。 相似文献
18.
当人类明进入廿一世纪,珠宝早已不再为王公贵族所独享。拥有珠宝、佩戴珠宝已成为种化、一种时尚、一种生活态度。 相似文献
19.
一、客户信用风险产生的原因 客户的信用风险首先来自客户的失信行为,一是承租人的经济状况不佳,职业和收入不稳定,当经济情况恶化或者投资失败时,不能支付或者不能按时支付租金;二是承租人的素质较低,对租赁物缺乏责任感,造成非正常的、过度的磨损,或者偿债意愿不够强烈,不愿支付租金;还有极少数的顾客,在租赁之初就心存不轨,恶意骗租和欺诈。 相似文献
20.
In Kalecki's outline for a perspective plan a distinction is drawn between demand-determined and supply-constrained industries. Foreign trade operates on a vent-for-surplus principle whereby supply industries are run at full capacity and excess supplies (demands) are exported (imported). This policy is assessed using a simple two-sector model and is given only qualified support. Modifications to his plan procedure are accordingly suggested. 相似文献
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