标准化战略与经济全球化研究

随着经济全球化的发展,国与国之间的经济交往、技术交流逐渐打破原有的界线,形成全球范围的大生产和大流通。标准不仅是企业之间的竞争,更是国与国之间的竞争。标准,已成为世界各地通用的一种技术语言,尤其是国际标准已成为国际贸易有效规则的一部分和产品质量仲裁的准则。国际上的标准化组织和一些工业发达国家为了在国际标准化活动中争取主动权、发言权,反映本国的要求,体现本国的利益,开始制定并实施标准化战略,全球形成了一股标准化战略热。文章详细分析了经济全球化的特征和表现,提出了标准化战略是经济全球化强有力的技术支撑和管理工具,成为企业跨国经营、产品跨国生产、商品和资源跨国流动及世界范围技术交流的规则和准则。     

World trade: Modest recovery continues

The latest indicators suggest a modest recovery in world trade. The apparent upswing in US import demand over the last couple of months is a notable positive signal for the global economy, and the constraining impact on world trade of the Eurozone recession of 2011–13 is also easing. The pace of world trade growth is, however, still relatively slow; our forecasts suggest world trade growth will only recover to its long‐term average level of just under 6% per year by end‐2015. Trade growth in key emerging markets also remains soft, although some indicators from Asia suggest an improving picture. One reason for the relatively weak growth in world trade may be a restructuring of global supply chains, reducing the growth in trade in intermediate goods. If so, this is not necessarily bad news for the global economy but may have distributional consequences, for example bearing down on growth in countries that have specialised in providing such goods including some emergers.     

Keeping track of global trade in real time

This paper builds an innovative composite world trade-cycle index by means of a dynamic factor model for short-term forecasts of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. Trade indicators are selected using a multidimensional approach, including Bayesian model averaging techniques, dynamic correlations, and Granger non-causality tests in a linear vector autoregression framework. To overcome real-time forecasting challenges, the dynamic factor model is extended to account for mixed frequencies, to deal with asynchronous data publication, and to include hard and survey data along with leading indicators. Nonlinearities are addressed with a Markov switching model. Pseudo-real-time empirical simulations suggest that: (i) the global trade index is a useful tool for tracking and forecasting world trade in real time; (ii) the model is able to infer global trade cycles very precisely and better than several competing alternatives; and (iii) global trade finance conditions seem to lead the trade cycle, a conclusion that is in line with the theoretical literature.     

The universal pathway to commodity structure upgrading in global trade evolution

Some scholars have proposed that economies grow by upgrading the commodities they produce and export. Product space theory holds that the export structure is determined by a country’s factor endowment and technological level, proposing the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) to analyze the specialization on commodities for countries. With the development of global trade, the network of multilateral trade relations has become increasingly hierarchical and complex. It would, therefore, be valuable to identify general patterns across countries of upgrading the commodity structure in the evolution of their participation in global trade. This paper shows that a typical pattern of change in the dominant types of foreign trade occurs when an economy has grown to a certain scale. With economic development, the advantages of high-technology commodities in trade gradually become more prominent.

     

全球化对城市空间结构的作用机制分析

论文认为城市空间结构的演进归根结底是微观经济主体,尤其是企业的生产行为和区位选择行为推动的。企业对生产组织和空间布局的不同选择,直接影响着两种不同的空间发展模式——集中化和分散化。全球化和信息化推动了生产技术方式和生产组织方式的演进,对企业区位选择、产业的空间布局,以及城市空间结构和空间组织产生了重要影响,都市圈、城市群成为当今先进生产组织方式的重要空间载体。     

Weak world trade could spark competitive devaluations

• World trade growth has slowed sharply in 2015, with our forecast for growth just 1% for the year. High frequency indicators suggest a stagnant picture, with trade in key emerging markets (EM) especially weak. Import growth in the US and Eurozone remains positive and is holding up world trade, but there are downside risks here also. Very slow world trade growth risks incentivising competitive depreciations and depressing global bond yields.
• In August our OE export indicator fell to its lowest level since late‐2012 –; the point when the US announced ‘QE3’. Its weakness is corroborated by other indicators such as container trade and air freight.
• The main drag to world trade is from emerging markets, especially the BRIC‐4 whose import volumes contracted sharply in H1 2015, cutting more than 1 percentage point from annual growth in goods trade.
• US and European import growth looks stronger and should be supported in 2016 by firming GDP growth. This is an important support for world trade, but the latest data suggest some downside risks here also.
• The weaker world demand growth is then the more that trade will appear like a zero‐sum game where a country can benefit only at the expense of its competitors. This has potentially important implications for asset prices: in particular, countries may turn to competitive depreciation, adding further to global deflationary pressures and holding down global bond yields.

     

National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany

Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany`s export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.     

EMBODIED CARBON IN TRADE: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper critically reviews the literature on embodied carbon in trade and evaluates our present empirical understanding of these flows. A careful comparison of quantitative results from this literature exposes significant inconsistencies. For instance, estimates for emission embodied in world trade in 2004 range between 4.4 Gt and 6.2 Gt CO2, the difference corresponding to around half of Europe's annual emissions. A few consistent themes do nevertheless emerge from the literature. Most importantly, emissions in trade constitute a large and growing share of global emissions. Uncertainty about country‐level embodied emissions remains large, however, which presents severe limitations for the practical application of embodied carbon principles in climate policy.     

低碳贸易壁垒的内容、影响及应对措施

发展低碳经济,减少碳排放,是延缓全球气候变暖的迫切需要。以低碳经济为代表的新技术革命也是全球经济复苏的引擎和下一轮经济增长的动力。制定碳标准,征收碳关税,一方面起到了监督减排责任的作用,但另一方面也成为新的技术性贸易壁垒。低碳贸易壁垒是在应对气候变化的大背景下产生的一类新型贸易措施,贸易保护主义将来更多是以低碳壁垒等技术性壁垒出现。由碳关税和低碳壁垒衍生的税收成本和技术标准的提高,将给包括中国在内的新兴经济体的出口产品增加生产成本,影响其出口贸易的发展。为应对世界经济和贸易格局向低碳化演变及发达国家设置低碳贸易壁垒对出口造成的严峻挑战,中国必须实施贸易低碳化战略,加快转型步伐。     

论我国碳排放权交易体系的构建

全球变暖是当今世界必须面对的重要环境问题,而碳排放权交易正是最有效的减排制度。目前,该制度在各国已得到广泛实践,而我国碳排放权交易体系的构建尚处于探索阶段。为此,我国应借鉴国际经验,选择适合中国的碳排放权交易机制,构建起有中国特色的碳排放权交易体系。     

Antecedents of organizational identification in multinational corporations: fostering psychological attachment to the local subsidiary and the global organization

This article reports the results of an empirical case study of the antecedents of organizational identification among local managers in a multinational corporation (MNC). Organizational identification, which refers to an individual's psychological attachment to the organization, has gained increasing attention because of its assumed link with behaviour associated with enhanced organizational performance. Yet little work has been done on what fosters organizational identification, particularly within the context of a MNC. Moreover, there is empirical evidence showing that managerial employees of MNCs draw a distinction between their local subsidiary and the global organization as manifest in separate group identifications. This suggests that there may be differential sets of antecedents of identification with the local subsidiary and with the global organization. The results of the present study indicate that there are different sets of factors that promote identification with the local and global levels of the organization. The results further show a complementarity of causal variables; identification with the local subsidiary is fostered primarily by factors which pertain to the local company context, while identification with the global organization is fostered primarily by factors which pertain to the MNC as a global entity.     

Null models of economic networks: the case of the world trade web

In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However, predictions of the available null-model methods can be derived analytically only under assumptions (e.g., sparseness of the network) that are unrealistic for most economic networks like the world trade web (WTW). In this paper we study the evolution of the WTW using a recently-proposed family of null network models. The method allows to analytically obtain the expected value of any network statistic across the ensemble of networks that preserve on average some local properties, and are otherwise fully random. We compare expected and observed properties of the WTW in the period 1950–2000, when either the expected number of trade partners or total country trade is kept fixed and equal to observed quantities. We show that, in the binary WTW, node-degree sequences are sufficient to explain higher-order network properties such as disassortativity and clustering-degree correlation, especially in the last part of the sample. Conversely, in the weighted WTW, the observed sequence of total country imports and exports are not sufficient to predict higher-order patterns of the WTW. We discuss some important implications of these findings for international-trade models.     

World trade forecasts upgraded,but headwinds from Asia

• ? Most leading indicators of world trade point to growth remaining robust in the next few months, but there are some headwinds, especially from Asia. Overall, we expect trade growth to decelerate this year, yet the outlook has improved since August. We see world trade rising by 6.1% in 2017 and by 4.8% this year, up from our previous forecasts of 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively .
• ? The latest trade volume data for the major economies support our forecasts, as does our survey‐based export indicator, which leads trade by around three months. This indicator and the main measure of global freight volumes are consistent with world trade continuing to grow by around 6% y/y in the near term.
• ? World trade growth is likely to be supported by emerging markets (EMs), which made a large contribution to the trade recovery last year. Another factor that may be supportive – especially for EMs – is the slippage in the US dollar last year, as there is some evidence of a negative correlation between dollar strength and world trade.
• ? The recovery of demand in the Eurozone and expected fiscal stimulus in the US add to the positive constellation of factors supporting world trade growth. Business sentiment indicators remain positive and imply upside risks to our forecasts. Yet it is not obvious that they have a strong leading relationship with trade – and the statistical relationship has become weaker since 2007–2009. This reinforces our view that there has been a structural change in the relationship between world trade and world GDP.
• ? The main near‐term downside risks to world trade come from Asia. Freight indicators for Shanghai and Hong Kong have slowed markedly, as have semiconductor billings. Although Chinese activity indicators have also moderated, China's trade volume growth remains surprisingly strong.

     

Does regionalism lead to more global trade integration in East Asia?

Since early 1999, global trade liberalization has been sidelined as regional trade agreements (RTA) have become the preferred choice in East Asia. Does this shift suggest that global trade and welfare levels will be raised? In contrast to unilateral trade liberalization, RTAs may well cause both ‘trade creation’ and ‘trade diversion,’ so that their net effect on global trade and welfare becomes ambiguous. It is conjectured that RTAs among “natural trading partners” are more likely to be trade-creating, and less likely to divert trade from non-member countries, in which case welfare will improve. We find that if an RTA involves geographically proximate countries (measured either by distance or border), trade significantly increases among them. At the same time, geographical proximity also contributes to increasing trade between members and the rest of the world. We examine how existing or proposed East Asian trading blocs affect intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade and thereby global trade. We find that the East Asian RTAs are likely to create more trade among members without diverting trade from non-members.     

面对全球化过程中台北市的都市现实

在 2 1世纪开始的此时此刻 ,全世界的城市和社会都共同正在经历一个在我们自身结构内的巨大历史性转化。在这样的转化核心环绕着资讯技术所组织起来的技术革命。立基于新技术的基础设施 ,经济与传播的全球化过程已改变了我们生产、消费、管理、告知和思考的方式。所有层级的策略性支配的活动 ,都是在全球决策和交换网络中被组织 ,从金融市场到视听讯息 ,世界是不对称地相互依赖着。而这样的不对称互赖关系经由新资讯与传播技术 ,全球、即时地联系起来 ,这就是我们要面对的结构性转化所透露的新世纪 ,资讯时代、全球经济、与网络社会。文章针对作为全球城市 (globalcity)的台北市 ,在面临全球经济中的再结构与都市再结构的巨大变局时 ,就它的都市政策研拟首先要面对的现实课题 ,提出分析 ,换句话说 ,这也是一个正在横渡全球化恶水中地方政府 ,摸索它的新角色转化时必须先面对的地方真实情境。     

Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context

This paper examines the implications of international production fragmentation for global and regional trade patterns, with special emphasis on countries in East Asia. It is found that, while trade in parts and components (fragmentation trade) has generally grown faster than total world manufacturing trade, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialization is proportionately larger than in North America and Europe. International production fragmentation has certainly played a pivotal role in the continuing dynamism of the East Asian economies and increasing intra-regional economic interdependence. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that this new form of international exchange has contributed to reducing the region's dependence on the global economy. On the contrary, growth dynamism based on vertical specialization depends inexorably on extra-regional trade in final goods, and this dependence has in fact increased over the years.     

Identifying hubs and spokes in global supply chains using redirected trade in value added

The increasing importance of global supply chains has prompted the use of analytical tools based on trade in value added – instead of traditional measures in gross value. We use this analytical framework to develop indicators that identify production hubs and supply spokes in global supply chains. Using these indicators and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, we quantify the relative importance of redirected value-added trade and the hub and spoke relationships at the aggregate level and for specific highly integrated industries.     

我国服务贸易的发展现状研究

世界经济正在从制造型经济向服务型经济转型。服务贸易在世界经济舞台中扮演着越来越重要的角色,未来服务贸易领域的竞争势必更加激烈。文章在对我国服务贸易近十年的历史数据整理研究的基础上,指出了我国服务贸易中存在的问题,分析了我国加快发展服务贸易的战略意义,并有针对性地提出了加快发展我国服务贸易的措施建议。     

Local trade networks and spatially persistent unemployment

This paper studies the effects of local trade networks on the spatial distribution of employment in a model that allows for effective demand externalities as well as home bias. It is shown that, if labor can be hired in continuous quantities, then the long run spatial distribution of employment is uniform, and independent of any trade network topology. When labor has binary support, however, local trade networks are found to generate spatial unemployment clusters which can persist indefinitely.     

World trade recovering but still reasons for caution

• ? World trade has picked up in recent months, expanding at the fastest pace in six years in the first quarter, with the rise fairly evenly split between advanced and emerging markets. Stronger activity in China and a broader upturn in global investment have been key factors. But there are still reasons for caution. Although the ‘cyclical’ element in world trade is improving, the ‘trend’ element is not thanks to changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation.
• ? World trade growth looks set to reach about a 4% annual rate in Q1 2017, the fastest pace since 2011. Alternative freight‐based indicators confirm the upturn. This suggests some modest near‐term upside risk to our world growth forecasts.
• ? Recent growth has been evenly split between advanced countries and emerging markets (EM). In EM, the end of deep recessions in Russia and Brazil and an upturn in China have been key factors. China directly added 0.5 percentage points to annual world trade growth over recent months and firmer growth there has also pushed up commodity prices and the spending power and imports of commodity exporters.
• ? Another important positive factor is an improvement in investment, which is a trade‐intensive element of world GDP. Rising capital goods imports across a range of countries suggest the drag on world trade from weak investment is fading.
• ? The decline in the ratio of world trade growth to world GDP growth over recent years has both cyclical and structural elements. But while the cyclical component now seems to be improving, there is little evidence that the structural part – responsible for between a half and two‐thirds of the recent decline – is doing likewise.
• ? Key factors behind the structural decline in world trade growth are changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation/protectionism. Both are likely to remain a drag over the coming years. Meanwhile, a levelling‐off of growth in China and drop back in commodity prices could curb the recent cyclical uptick.