现在防通胀后果可怕

今天的情况更加复杂了。如果中国经济已经复苏，政府还有没有必要继续刺激经济？宏观调控什么时候应该变向？政府的下一步应该治理通胀吗？但是如果中国经济还未复苏，我们的手中还有哪些牌能出？对经济形势的判断将直接影响政府的调控政策，错误的判断将会把经济带入更大的深渊。这在历史上并不是没有发生过：日本费了九牛二虎之力，     

美国经济的低就业复苏

今年二季度,美国经济复苏态势平稳。然而,经济的平稳复苏并没有带来就业状况的显著改善,当前美国失业率仍维持在9.5%的高位。造成这一现象的原因是什么？美国金融危机爆发后,失业率从5%急剧攀升至2009年10月的10.1%的高点。     

中国经济复苏的条件

现在对于世界经济何时复苏还没有定论。悲观论者认为衰退会达到5年以上,甚至像日本“失去的十年”一样漫长。乐观论者认为世界经济2010年即会复苏。而对于不同经济体,显然复苏的时间也会有所差异。中国2009年保持了8％以上的增长,而有些欧洲国家却几近破产。也正因为如此,强调中国率先走出危机的呼声很高。那么,这种说法有理由吗？决定中国经济复苏的主要因素到底有哪些？总的来讲,一个经济体的复苏取决于其初始条件、发展阶段以及经济体的弹性。以下将从国际比较的视角来审视中国在这几个方面所具备的优势或不足。     

新经济在中国为时尚早

在“新经济”红火登场之际，人们都为新经济折射出来的辉煌前景兴奋不已，很少有人冷静地问一声：什么是新经济？新经济在中国已经出现了吗？中国国际金融有限公司董事总经理许小年在一篇题为《新经济为时过早》的报告中明确指出：我们没有发现足够的证据表明美国当前的经济繁荣与以往的那些有什么本质上的不同，中国是世界上信息技术基础设施最落后的国家之一，这意味着新经济不会很快在中国成为现实。 美国经济繁荣与新经济无关 报告认为，８０年代也是低通胀高增长。除去衰退的年份，美国国内生产总值（ＧＤＰ）在９０年代的年平均增长率…     

寻找增长新引擎——在“找死”和“等死”之间

自4万亿投资计划公布以来，人们对以投资为主要引擎拉动的中国经济能否持续复苏表示了质疑。如果货币政策从宽松变为明宽暗紧，那么中国经济还能继续复苏吗？一次货币政策的微小调整，就导演了自8月A股的重挫，似乎人们的信心很脆弱。     

企业因小而美

今天．人们看起来要乐观许多．似乎都认为经济已经触底反弹。但是，经济究竟是否已经真正复苏？当前．资金都投向了大企业、基础设施和股票市场．而忽略了中小企业．而中小企业没有复苏，经济怎么可能复苏？     

物资供应与城市

在生产体系的调整过程中，物资供应起着越来越重要的作用。这只是一个简单的技术措施吗？它对组织区域经济和构成区域框架的城市网络有没有影响呢？     

大佬们抛售黄金

美国经济复苏势头持续，机构抛售黄金，金价牛市是否到头？     

抹茶在中国市场是如何复苏的？

抹茶，曾是中国古代茶饮的主流，但600多年来，在中国居然奇迹般地消失了。那么，抹茶这样的产品，在当代的中国市场还能做起来吗？什么样的营销力量，才能让传统复苏？     

电子游戏成为美国经济救命稻草？

2002年美国经济增长接近3%,似乎已经接近复苏的水平。但是,目前的美国经济还没有完全从阴影中解脱出来。以     

The US Recession

In the last five months US industrial production has fallen 71/2 per cent, while GNP fell by over 2 per cent in the second quarter. In April, when the latest figures were indicating that industrial production had fallen 1 per cent in February-March, President Carter admitted that the economy was "probably now in recession", with the qualification that it would be "mild and short". This was followed almost immediately by the news that the index of leading indicators had recorded its largest ever fall in April, and, from President Carter, the admission that recession had come to the US "quicker and steeper than we thought" and that the outlook looked "serious". Subsequently the fall in industrial production has gathered pace and in the last three months alone output has fallen by nearly 7 per cent. In the recession of the mid-19 70s industrial production fell by over 15 per cent in the space of six months, from September 1974 to March 1975. Over a rather longer period from the end of 1973 to March 1975 GNP registered a fall of over 5 per cent most of which was concentrated in the latter six months. In this Forecast Release we examine the cyclical behaviour of the US economy and, by comparing the recent experience with that of 1974-75, attempt to throw some light on the likely extent and depth of the current recession. As in our Forecast Release of May we remain of the opinion that the recession is unlikely to be either "mild"or "short"     

在经济衰退中创新

中国正在经历经济减速。我们尚不清楚这种减速是否会和世界其他地方一样剧烈，但可以确定的是任何减速都会迫使公司行动起来，拿出更多的创新。如果做不到这一点．只有死路一条。不过．对于商业创新活动有很多误解，我们必须首先了解：     

重复大萧条时代?

有一句老生常谈的话:"历史总是惊人的相似。"不过,人类的记性似乎并不是太好。"前车之鉴"的话虽说常常挂在嘴边,可"重蹈覆辙"的事从来都不少见。于是,历史也就只好这么"惊人的相似"下去。人类似乎还有一种由来已久的习惯,这就是:每当有重大的社会变革或社会危机出现的时候,总有人喜欢去翻翻历史这本老账,这一翻不打紧,往往会把自己吓一大跳,或者倒吸一口凉气:何其相似乃尔!     

Uncertainty and the Great Recession

Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the United States? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. The answer is no. In total we find that increased macroeconomic and financial uncertainty can explain up to 10% of the drop in GDP at the height of the recession and up to 0.6 percentage points of the increased unemployment rates in 2009 through 2011. Our calculations further suggest that only a minor part of the rise in popular uncertainty measures during the Great Recession was driven by exogenous uncertainty shocks.     

Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification

We demonstrate the use of a Naïve Bayes model as a recession forecasting tool. The approach is closely connected with Markov-switching models and logistic regression, but also has important differences. In contrast to Markov-switching models, our Naïve Bayes model treats National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle turning points as data, rather than as hidden states to be inferred by the model. Although Naïve Bayes and logistic regression are asymptotically equivalent under certain distributional assumptions, the assumptions do not hold for business cycle data. As a result, Naïve Bayes has a larger asymptotic error rate, but converges to the error rate more quickly than logistic regression, resulting in more accurate recession forecasts with limited data. We show that Naïve Bayes outperforms competing models and the Survey of Professional Forecasters consistently for real-time recession forecasting up to 12 months in advance. These results hold under standard error measures, and also under a novel measure that varies the penalty on false signals, depending on when they occur within a cycle; for example, a false signal in the middle of an expansion is penalized more heavily than one that occurs close to a turning point.     

区域间衰退产业竞争的博弈策略研究

衰退产业的有效调整是保证区域产业结构合理有效的重要前提。文章分析了产业间竞争关系,建立了产业博弈竞争模型并求解,并以两省纺织产业为例进行实力研究。     

Causes and Cures of the Great Recession

The Great Recession was not a failure of free markets. Rather it was a classic example of the undesirable unintended consequences of government intervention, both through expansionary monetary policy and misguided attempts to bolster the housing market in the USA. Getting government out of banking is the best way to end the disastrous boom and bust cycles that have characterised the last century and a half.