Market power of large cities and policy differences in metropolitan areas

When a single city, the ‘central city’, has a large share of the metropolis population, it will influence housing prices in other, smaller cities, the ‘suburbs’. This market power leads to differences in government policy and property values between the central city and suburbs even when residents and amenities in the two regions are identical. When the central city's government is controlled by property-owning residents, its property tax rate exceeds the rate in the suburbs. The central city will also have lower property values than suburbs.     

Implementation of enterprise resource planning in China

ERP implementation is a ‘Triple Play’ that combines people, technology, and processes. It embodies a complex implementation process, especially in developing countries like China, often taking several years, huge amount of fund and involving a major business process reengineering exercise. In this paper, an attempt has been made to identify some Chinese-specific difficulties in the implementation process and provide solutions to implement ERP system successfully through questionnaire survey, interviews, and secondary data. On the basis of analysis of questionnaire results, some common difficulties have been explored by authors, such as support of top management, costly and time-consuming, cultural differences, technical complexity, lack of professional personnel, and inner resistance. The difficulties are largely due to the nature of enterprise's ownership and size. Suggested solutions to overcome these difficulties: ERP software packages selection, ERP implementation team, BPR, Training, and Outsourcing-Application Service Provider. These solutions can effectively solve ERP difficulties.     

Stability and efficiency from a Neo-Keynesian viewpoint

This paper raises once more the Keynesian challenge of the classical doctrine that an unguided market economy has a natural tendency towards optimal employment of resources. By means of a simple macromodel, we show that if quantity expectations are incorporated into the Walrasian model, then it is no longer generally true that the ‘invisible hand’ leads the economy to Walrasian equilibrium. Instead, it may lead the economy to a kind of Keynesian equilibrium in which the firms' sales expectations constitute a binding constraint on production. Moreover, while Pareto optimum is unstable and hence unattainable in our model, a ‘second-best’ optimum among stable equilibria exists and requires a public sector. Accordingly, a trade-off between efficiency and other policy aims occurs only at tax rates above the positive tax rate in optimum     

Patents for genetic inventions: a tool to promote technological advance or a limitation for upstream inventions?

Today's conventional wisdom among economists and lawyers is heavily weighted toward the proposition that strong and broad patent rights are conducive to economic progress. Concerns have been raised as to the extent to which strong patent rights could build up barriers to follow-up research and thus hinder technological advance. This poses a number of difficulties particularly in the area of genetics with respect to the scope of protection and the definition of what is patentable. This article considers the problems of ‘anti-commons’, limitations for upstream inventions, patent thickets and royalty stacking with licenses for genetic inventions. A survey of 53 biotechnology companies in Switzerland builds the empirical basis of the investigation. The survey results confirm that the concepts of ‘anti-commons’, ‘patent thickets’ and ‘royalty stacking’ are indeed relevant. However, they are not highly relevant for the Swiss biotechnology industry from an economic point of view. A broad research exemption combined with a protection limited to concrete disclosure functions of DNA patents and compulsory licensing arrangements are considered as feasible remedies for overcoming certain difficulties with gene patents.     

Inside the queue:: hypercongestion and road pricing in a continuous time–continuous place model of traffic congestion

This paper develops a continuous-time–continuous-place dynamic economic model of traffic congestion, based on car-following theory. The model integrates two archetype congestion technologies used in the economics literature: ‘static flow congestion’ and ‘dynamic bottleneck congestion.’ With endogenous departure times and a bottleneck along the route, ‘hypercongestion’ arises as a dynamic equilibrium phenomenon on the upstream road segment. Congestion tolls based on an intuitive dynamic and space-varying generalization of the standard Pigouvian tax rule can hardly be improved upon. A naïve application of a toll schedule based on Vickrey's bottleneck model performs much worse and reduces welfare in the numerical model.     

Networked creativity: a structured management framework for stimulating innovation

The effect of today's turbulent environment means that organisations need to improve their competitive advantage and swiftly respond to changing technology and markets. An organisation's ability to continuously innovate its products and business systems is essential to its future success. However, this ability to stimulate innovation is highly dependent upon the stock of potential ideas and problem solutions, which is available to feed the innovation process. These ‘seedlings of innovation’ are the product of the creative processes of an organisation. Whilst continuous, sustainable innovation is an essential competitive capability for future organisational success, to date the creative process has been allowed to operate in an ‘ad hoc’ and serendipitous fashion. Continuous innovation means that organisations need to be able to effectively manage their creative processes to ensure their innovation process has a plentiful supply of good ideas and solutions. To this end, a framework for enhancing networked creativity is presented as a means towards the effective management of the creative process within organisations.     

Dynamic programming for non-additive stochastic objectives

We derive the existence of an optimum and the techniques of dynamic programming for non-additive stochastic objectives. Our key assumption for non-negative objectives is that asymptotic impatience exceeds asymptotic ‘mean’ growth, where ‘mean’ growth is derived not only from intertemporal inelasticity and the random return on investment but also from the curvature of the non-additive stochastic aggregator (i.e. the ‘certainty equivalent’). We provide broad families of new, interesting, and tractable examples. They illustrate that ‘mean’ growth can exist even when the distribution of returns has unbounded support, that power discounting often implies infinite asymptotic impatience, and that non-positive objectives are easily handled with few restrictions on growth.     

A Hotelling model with a ceiling on the stock of pollution

Environmental agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol aim to stabilize the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, which is mainly caused by the burning of nonrenewable resources such as coal. We characterize the solution to the textbook Hotelling model when there is a ceiling on the stock of emissions. We consider both increasing and decreasing demand for energy. We show that when the ceiling is binding, both the low-cost nonrenewable resource and the high-cost renewable resource may be used jointly. A key implication is that if energy demand were to decline in the long run, we may supplement energy supply through ‘clean’ renewables to meet the environmental standard, but then revert back to using only ‘dirty’ fossil fuels in the future when the ceiling has become non-binding. That is, the much heralded societal ‘transition’ to clean energy resources may be short-lived.     

Economic dynamics of reservoir sedimentation management: Optimal control with singularly perturbed equations of motion

We analyze the economic dynamics of reservoir sedimentation management using the hydrosuction-dredging sediment-removal system. System dynamics depend on two interdependent hydraulic processes evolving at different rates. The accumulation of water impounded in the reservoir evolves on a ‘fast’ time scale, while the loss of water storage capacity to trapped sediments evolves on a ‘slow’ time scale. We formulate a multidimensional optimal control problem with singularly perturbed equations of motion to accommodate the disparate time scales. We apply singular perturbation methods to approximate (via polynomial series expansion) a ‘slow’ manifold reducing multi-dimensional solution space to the single-dimensional subspace confining long-term dynamics.     

Principles of controlling traffic noise : Solving a multi-objective decision problem

The main objectives for a government to control traffic noise are such as economic efficiency, a reasonable welfare distribution and acceptable noise standards. The instruments available for arriving at these objectives are traffic control, emission regulation and environment protection. This paper analyzes how to make trade-offs between such objectives and how to choose a combination of noise control instruments. Special attention is then made to one welfare distribution objective, namely the ‘polluters-pay-principle’. That principle demands using the vehicle tax to finance investments to protect environment. And in order to stimulate the development of less noisy vehicles such a tax has to be progressively increased for noisy cars. The analysis is demonstrated on the situation of Sweden where a differentiation of norms as well as of vehicle taxes is proposed.     

National policies towards biotechnology

The ‘new biotechnology’ is still a very young technology - half-in, half-out of the research laboratory. This paper surveys the policies that have been emerging towards this new technology from six governments - those of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany and the Netherlands. It suggests that the publicity ‘hype’ associated with the new biotechnology firms of the U.S., and the naming of biotechnology as a ‘next generation base technology’ by the Japanese government, together played a seminal role in pressurising governments into a positive policy stance. Looking across national policies, eight common characteristics of policy are identified: substantial support for basic research; increasing emphasis on applied research; expansion of traditional policies for supporting R & D; a new emphasis on linkage between academic and industrial research; gradual convergence towards corporatist or quasi-corporatist policies; the popularity of the collaborative approach; the promotion of small firms and the venture capital market; concern with the regulatory environment.     

A theoretical comparison of the opportunity and gravity models

This paper compares the opportunity model with the gravity model from a theoretical view- point. First, based on a reexamination of Schneider's model, the ‘perceived opportunity model’ is proposed as a generalization of Schneider's model. Second, the similarity of the opportunity and gravity models is examined. In particular the condition of the opportunity model behaving like the gravity model is presented. Third, the difference of these models is investigated in terms of certain general model-theoretic properties. The behavioral ‘sensitivity’ of each model to spatial configuration changes is revealed by these properties.     

Unpacking the client(s): Constructions, positions and client–consultant dynamics

Research on management consultancy usually emphasizes the role and perspective of the consultants. Whilst important, consultants are only one element in a dynamic relationship involving both consultants and their clients. In much of the literature, the client is neglected, or is assumed to represent a distinct, immutable entity. In this paper, we argue that the client organisation is not uniform but is instead (like organisations generally) a more or less heterogeneous assemblage of actors, interests and inclinations involved in multiple and varied ways in consultancy projects. This paper draws upon three empirical cases and emphasizes three key aspects of clients in the context of consultancy projects: (a) client diversity, including, but not limited to diversity arising solely from (pre-)structured contact relations and interests; (b) processes of constructing ‘the client’ (including negotiation, conflict, and reconstruction) and the client identities which are thereby produced; and (c) the dynamics of client–consultant relations and how these influence the construction of multiple and perhaps contested client positions and identities.     

Linear-quadratic approximation, external habit and targeting rules

We examine the linear-quadratic approximation of nonlinear dynamic stochastic optimization problems. A discrete-time version of Magill [1977a. A local analysis of N-sector capital accumulation under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Theory 15(2), 211–219] is generalized to models with forward-looking variables paying special attention to second-order conditions. This is the ‘large distortions’ case in the literature. We apply the approach to monetary policy in a DSGE model with external habit in consumption. We then develop a condition for ‘target-implementability’, a concept related to ‘targeting rules’. Finally, we extend the approach to a comparison between cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria in a two-country model and show that the ‘small distortions’ approximation is inappropriate for this exercise.     

Inter-jurisdiction subsidy competition for a new production plant: What is the central government optimal policy?

This paper models inter-jurisdiction competition for foreign direct investment and optimal government policy intervention to protect the national interest. The inter-jurisdiction competition for a multinational has the potential of favouring the multinational and of becoming detrimental for the host country. The central government wants to limit such competition but it cannot tax-discriminate between different types of multinationals. We find that the central government would use tax policy to create asymmetries even when the underlying structure is symmetrical. This offers a novel explanation for the creation of ‘Special Economic Zones’ in many countries, which are well known to be aimed at the attraction of foreign direct investment.     

Japan

Our outlook for domestic demand remains reasonably optimistic, notwithstanding recent financial market turmoil. A tight labour market and a pick‐up in wages will bolster consumption and incentivise investment in labour‐saving technology. Meanwhile, firms continue to expand capacity and raise R&D expenditure for new technologies, boosting investment. While growth in 2018 was set back by weather‐related contractions in Q1 and Q3, we expect demand to have rebounded in Q4 and look for GDP to have grown by 0.8% in 2018 as a whole. We expect growth of 1.0% in 2019 but just 0.3% in 2020, with the key drivers being:

• ? Robust labour market to support consumption: as the labour market continues to tighten, we expect household spending to continue to support growth in 2019. We project consumption to accelerate ahead of the scheduled rise of the consumption tax in Q4 2019, before falling back as the tax hike feeds through. However, given the stimulus measures planned by the government to soften the impact of the tax rise, we then expect consumption to show a faster recovery relative to previous consumption tax increases.
• ? Solid investment intentions despite rising uncertainty: business sentiment and investment intentions remain above historical averages and firms continue to expand capacity and increase R&D for new technologies, despite rising uncertainty over the durability of global economic momentum. And although softening recently, machinery orders remain high. Looking ahead, we expect investment growth to lose some momentum as the investment cycle begins to turn and global trade continues to ease.
• ? Low export growth to carry over into 2019: export volume growth has been weak of late, reflecting the softening in external demand. Import volumes have continued to grow at a robust pace, given solid domestic momentum. We expect export growth to remain weak going into 2019, in line with slowing global trade.
• ? Industrial production to continue growing: industrial output has recovered of late, after weather‐related disruption had weighed on growth earlier in 2018, while the PMI has remained stable at 52–53. We expect industrial production to continue growing in line with domestic demand, but slower than in previous years given less buoyant external prospects.
• ? No fiscal consolidation without economic revitalisation: the government is planning measures to support growth after the consumption tax rise in Q4 2019 including a diverse range of policies to incentivise consumption and an expansion of free childcare and education. It has also signalled that it stands ready to provide additional stimulus if needed.
• ? Monetary policy to stay put amid low inflation and falling bond yields: inflation has remained stagnant while 10‐year government bond yields fell into negative territory for the first time in two years, putting an end to speculation about monetary policy tweaks. With the consumption tax rise drawing closer, we do not expect the BoJ to move again any time soon.
• ? Equity sell‐off to prove temporary, but yen strength will persist: we expect current equity weakness to be temporary, but market volatility and more cautious Fed tightening indicate a stronger yen in 2019. Ongoing trade frictions and political attention on the exchange rate will also support the yen, which we see averaging 107 yen per US dollar in 2019.

     

The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis

This paper systematically reviews empirical studies looking at the effectiveness of the Delphi technique, and provides a critique of this research. Findings suggest that Delphi groups outperform statistical groups (by 12 studies to two with two ‘ties’) and standard interacting groups (by five studies to one with two ‘ties’), although there is no consistent evidence that the technique outperforms other structured group procedures. However, important differences exist between the typical laboratory version of the technique and the original concept of Delphi, which make generalisations about ‘Delphi’ per se difficult. These differences derive from a lack of control of important group, task, and technique characteristics (such as the relative level of panellist expertise and the nature of feedback used). Indeed, there are theoretical and empirical reasons to believe that a Delphi conducted according to ‘ideal’ specifications might perform better than the standard laboratory interpretations. It is concluded that a different focus of research is required to answer questions on Delphi effectiveness, focusing on an analysis of the process of judgment change within nominal groups.     

Theoretical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis in economic dynamical models

This paper examines different theoretical stability tests of infinite-horizon rational expectations equilibria. These ‘tests’ have different status: two of them express that the considered equilibrium is ‘isolated’ [neither (non-sunspot) equilibria (test 1) nor (well-behaved) sunspot equilibria exist in a neighbourhood (test 2)] and two of them are learning criteria [either standard ‘evolutive learning’ (test 3) or game-theoretical ‘eductive’ learning (test 4)]. Surprisingly, these four tests select the same steady state equilibria in the class of one-dimensional one-step-forward looking economic models. The extension of this equivalence theorem to n-dimensional and then more complex systems is discussed.     

Stochastic processes of temporary equilibria

It is the aim of the paper to study within the framework of an ‘overlapping generation model’ the evolution of temporary equilibria. At date t, there are ‘newborn’ agents and ‘old’ agents who were born in previous periods; the old agents hold cash balances (fiat money) that they carried over from the previous period. At the beginning of period t, all agents receive a random endowment of consumption goods. Then the agents exchange these endowments and money on spot markets at date t (trading in future markets is not considered). Once a temporary equilibrium is reached, the economy move to the next date. Agents who were born at date t then become old and meet agents born at period t+1.It is shown that the evolution of temporary equilibria in this model leads to analyse the ergodic properties of a certain class of Markov processes with stationary transition probability.     

Technology policy in Japan: A short review

This paper examines technology policy in Japan. Following a brief introduction, we review trends in Japanese technology policy: in the 1950's and through to the mid-1960's, the main policy concern was to facilitate the importation of technology. However, in the mid-1960's, the emphasis had shifted to promote domestic R & D, and various policy measures like tax breaks, subsidies and research contracts were employed to encourage R & D in private firms. In the 1970's, public policy became more selective, and R & D on pollution control, energy, space and ocean resources was encouraged. Currently, the policy discussion is centered around the problem of how to enhance Japan's technology base in basic technologies in order to promote a shift to high-technology production. The third section examines the various policy measures in detail; preferential tax treatment, subsidies, research contracts, low interest loans, public research institutions, public corporations, and research associations. It is argued that Japanese technology policy worked alongside market forces rather than replacing them with the political process. This approach was successful in the sense that it contributed to the promotion of technological progress and a high rate of economic growth. However, as the promotion of basic research becomes more important, a new approach must be devised. The brief concluding comments discuss current and future problems to be addressed by technology policy in Japan.