美国见闻录

今年6月29日至7月21日,在国家外国专家局的支持下,我随同参加过国内1000户重点企业领导人员工商管理培训的部分企业家继续赴美国培训.在美国培训考察21天,参观了旧金山、洛杉矶、纽约、费城、华盛顿等城市和一些高新技术企业及高等学校,对美国的社会、政治、经济、科技乃至历史有了比较直观的感受.可以说,百闻不如一见.现将所见所闻追记下来,并略加议论,以飨读者.     

Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom

Was UK inflation more stable and/or less uncertain before 1914 or after 1945? We address these questions by estimating a statistical model with changing volatilities in transient and persistent components of inflation. Three conclusions emerge. First, since periods of high and low volatility occur in both eras, neither features uniformly greater stability or lower uncertainty. When comparing peaks with peaks and troughs with troughs, however, we find clear evidence that the price level was more stable before World War I. We also find some evidence for lower uncertainty at pre-1914 troughs, but its statistical significance is borderline.     

Sadat's Negotiations with the United States and Israel

A bstract The outcome of the negotiations between the Egyptians and the Americans and the Israelis reflected the balance of power between the negotiators in the period 1974-1979 But a realistic assessment of the forces at play at the beginning of negotiations in 1973 could have facilitated a fir more effective utilization of the Arab coalition power that was successfully marshalled for the 1973 military operation and for the brief political battle which ensued Anwar Sadat based his strategies on a highly personalistic assessment of the relevant policies of Israel and the United States, and of their respective relative power Sadat's decision-making and his ability to make concessions was facilitated by the authoritarian character of his rule The documentary record suggests that Egyptian decisions and negotiating strategies from Sinai to Camp David fundamentally reflected President Sadat's psycho-political perceptions and his highly personalized approach to diplomacy     

在美国吃快餐

每天的午餐是美国人一日三餐中食品最简单、食量最少、最好对付的一餐,通常都是吃快餐.到了中午,美国的大街小巷上食客众多热闹异常.有一边看书报一边吃、一边听着音乐手舞足蹈一边吃的,有坐在车里吃、站在路边吃、蹲在树下吃的,甚至走在路上吃、连跑带吃的也随处可见.美国人追求效率效果,讲究省时省力,注重方便实惠,正是这一特点,使得作为美国餐饮文化特征的快餐渗透到美国社会的各个角落.     

Occupational and industrial mobility in the United States

Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and using both the original and the new series of occupation and industry codes, we investigate occupational and industrial mobility of individuals over the 1969–1980 and 1981–1993 periods in the U.S. We find that workers changed both occupations and industries more frequently in the later period. We also find that for men occupational and industrial changes are associated with lower earnings, though this effect has lessened somewhat over time; while for women the results are mixed. Our results also indicate that older and better paid men are less likely to shift occupation or industry.     

Self-selection and internal migration in the United States

"Within the conceptual framework of the Roy model, this paper provides an empirical analysis of internal migration flows [in the United States] using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The theoretical approach highlights regional differences in the returns to skills: regions that pay higher returns to skills attract more skilled workers than regions that pay lower returns. Our empirical results suggest that interstate differences in the returns to skills are a major determinant of both the size and skill composition of internal migration flows. Persons whose skills are most mismatched with the reward structure offered by their current state of residence are the persons most likely to leave that state, and these persons tend to relocate in states which offer higher rewards for their particular skills."     

National skill-creation systems and career paths for service workers: hotels in the United States,Germany and the United Kingdom

Creating sufficient opportunities for individuals to develop their capabilities and earn a living wage is one of the central challenges facing all countries. However, some types of vocational education and training (VET) institutions may be more effective than others in promoting the development of career-enhancing ‘transferable’ skills. In order to investigate the links between national skill-creation systems and individual career paths, this study focuses on three countries with very different VET systems: the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. The comparison is based on closely matched samples of three- and four-star hotels. The results suggest that individual career development and outcomes, such as wages and turnover rates, are strongly influenced by the interplay of three key elements – the breadth, relevance to employment and degree of standardization – of national initial VET systems. Our analysis identifies strengths and weaknesses of the different systems and key lessons for improvement.     

Different Manifestations of the Concept of Empowerment: The Politics of Urban Renewal in the United States and the United Kingdom

Over the course of the 1990s the concept of empowerment became firmly established within the vocabulary of urban politics in several different national contexts. This article analyzes the spread of this concept by looking at the politics of urban renewal in the United States and the United Kingdom. It shows that even if (and possibly because) the definition of empowerment remained vague, the turn to empowerment came out of and contributed to a shift in the nature of urban politics and to a reconfiguration of governmental methods, the role of the state and, consequently, to changes in civil society, all of which were associated with a rise to prominence of a neoliberal perspective.     

Energy demand and interfuel substitution in the United Kingdom

This paper sets out to examine the demand for energy in the United Kingdom. All energy sources are demonstrated to be substitutable. Coal is the most price responsive with natural gas, oil and electrical energy following. Moreover, when the issue of stability is considered, the suggestion is that the demand for coal, oil, natural gas and electrical energy have remained virtually constant over the past three decades.     

Income distribution and income dynamics in the United Kingdom

In this paper, we propose a model of income dynamics which takes account of mobility both within and between jobs. The model is a hybrid of the mover‐stayer model of income dynamics and a geometric random walk. In any period, individuals face a discrete probability of ‘moving’, in which case their income is a random drawn from a stationary recurrent distribution. Otherwise, they ‘stay’ and incomes follow a geometric random walk. The model is estimated on income transition data for the United Kingdom from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and provides a good explanation of observed non‐linearities in income dynamics. The steady‐state distribution of the model provides a good fit for the observed, cross‐sectional distribution of earnings. We also evaluate the impact of tertiary education on income transitions and on the long‐run distribution of incomes. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economics and urban transportation policy in the United States

This article examines the role that economics can play in analysing problems with urban transportation in the United States. The specific problems addressed are failing infrastructure, financially weak public transit, environmental impacts of motor vehicles, motorvehicle accidents, and traffic congestion. Simple quantitative analyses, even though approximate, can help to focus attention on the most promising classes of policies. Those classes involve some technological measures and some narrowly targeted behavioral changes, but not the widespread curtailment of motor vehicle use.     

Urban Ethnographies in the United States

Books reviewed in this article: Gamm, Gerald, Urban Exodus: why the Jews left Boston and the Catholics stayed Pattillo‐McCoy, Mary, Black picket fences: privilege and peril among the black middle class     

Informal Housing in the United States

Research on informal housing tends to focus overwhelmingly on less developed countries, downplaying or ignoring entirely the presence of informality in United States housing markets. In actuality, a longstanding and widespread tradition of informal housing exists in the United States but is typically disregarded by scholars. In this article we draw on three definitions of informality—as non‐compliant, non‐enforced, or deregulated economic activity—to characterize examples of informality in US housing markets, focusing in particular on five institutions that govern housing market activity in this country: property rights law, property transfer law, land‐use and zoning, subdivision regulations, and building codes. The cases presented here challenge the notion that informality is absent from US housing markets and highlight the unique nature of informal housing, US style—namely, that informal housing in the US is geographically uneven, largely hidden and typically interwoven within formal markets. We conclude with a discussion of how research on informal housing in the US can inform research in the global South.