比率税制下的乘数:理论推导和探讨

目前国内权威版本的《宏观经济学》教材,对三部门经济中比率税制的各种乘数的推导和论述存在相互矛盾的结果。本文基于宏观经济学的基本原理,运用数学模型推导了三部门经济中比率税的各种乘数,得出真正的平衡预算乘数恒等于1的结论。     

加入世界贸易组织以来中国外贸乘数效应问题研究

外贸乘数与被乘数均为影响开放型经济国家经济发展速度的主要因素.换句话说,两者是做大一个国家国民收入"蛋糕"的主要途径.2001年末,我国正式加入世界贸易组织,对外开放进入一个新的阶段,开放型经济在我国已经基本成型.此前,虽国内有一些学者测算过我国外贸乘数,但大都基于20世纪90年代的外贸状况,而且多就乘数谈乘数.本文首先对常见的乘数模型进行评价,在此基础上,选取最新数据进行测算,并且首次对外贸乘数与外贸被乘数的关系进行探讨,就当前争议的有关问题进行分析,提出了相关的政策建议.     

冬奥会对北京经济的影响预测

奥运会的举办必然会对举办地的经济产生巨大影响,即形成奥运经济。中国在获得2022年冬奥会举办权后,其经济效应成为国内经济学者研究的焦点。本文主要运用投资乘数和旅游乘数的计量经济学模型,预测冬奥会前后十年对北京GDP的影响。具体结论为：冬奥会前,随着投资的逐渐增加,最终消费的增长,冬奥会拉动GDP增长的百分点逐渐扩大,可以拉动北京GDP平均每年增加2.1%;冬奥会对经济的影响在举办年达到峰值,可以拉动北京GDP增长3.0%;2022年以后,冬奥会对两地滑雪产业产生的长期促进作用将逐渐释放,可以为北京GDP年均贡献1.6%。冬奥会前后十年年均带动北京GDP增加2.2%。     

SAM乘数效应链接模型设计与应用研究

目前国内外对投入产出模型的研究已经成熟,但如何将其扩展到整个国民经济收入分配和金融领域,还没有特别成熟的模型。有人尝试在社会核算矩阵（Social Accounting Matrix,SAM）上建立投入产出模型,但其应用的灵活性会受到限制。本文将SAM流量矩阵划分为投入产出表、国民收入流量表、金融流量表三张表,先分别建立三个模型,然后将其链接起来,形成一个能够反映国民经济所有环节乘数关系的模型系统。然后利用中国2012年的SAM数据,举例说明了其在实际经济分析中的应用。     

动态外贸乘数模型与我国对外贸易的实证分析

文章将外贸乘数模型扩展为动态形式，用Z变换方法推导外贸乘数。该方法能说明在经济变量改变的情况下，国民经济系统以何种速度、结构和规模运动，最终趋于稳定还是发散。最后结合我国实际，对1986—2005年的外贸乘数进行实证分析。     

政府如何使可再生能源具有竞争性

商业化开发和利用可再生能源的主要方向是可再生能源发电,制约可再生能源发电市场快速发展的主要因素是上网电价.综合考虑可再生能源产品的特殊性以及发展可再生能源对调整能源结构、增加能源供应和促进经济发展的特殊意义,对可再生能源电力产品在一定的时期内应实施政府定价机制.     

我国对外贸易的乘数效应

本文立足对外贸易与国民经济发展的关系,提出进口贸易乘数概念,并根据建国以来的基础数据,计算分析了我国各种情况下的短、长期贸易乘数,为我国沿海开放地区发展外向型经济和制订进出口战略提供了客观上的理论基础。在一个开放的经济系统中,对外贸易与经济发展构成正反馈回路。对外贸易对经济增长的贡献,就是对外贸易的乘数效应,我们称之为外贸乘数。     

日本地震对中国主要产业的影响

日本地震之后,东京电力福岛核电站的核泄漏事件,正在对中国的产业发展产生不可估量的影响.中国新能源产业的格局将由此调整,原规划2020年占装机总量近10%的核电发展比例很可能减少,可再生能源中海上风能和太阳能的发展将成为新兴能源发展的寄望之所在.     

智能电网和新能源的开发利用及发展对策

目前,气候变暖、能源短缺是人们最为关注的话题,发展新能源、低碳经济已成为我国能源战略的重要内容,而发展新能源对电网又提出了新的要求。因此,中国应通过加强石油,煤炭,电力与其他能源产业之间的合作,提高新能源在整个能源结构中的比重从而发展利用分布式可再生能源的智能电网。本文主要讨论了新能源在智能电网中的综合运用和发展情况。     

生态文明机制下我国可再生能源投融资困境研究——基于绿色电力证书交易的思考

文章从生态文明的问题引出可再生能源产业发展的大趋势,指出可再生能源产业投融资困境的3种解决办法:政府财政补贴、绿色金融支持和绿色电力证书交易的支持。     

SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX FOR INDIA

This paper provides the latest Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the year 2003–2004 for the Indian economy with a wide variety of disaggregation for the Energy sector and the sectors that are relevant for environmental and climate policy evaluation. This SAM shows the interaction between production, income, consumption and capital accumulation. It can be used to provide an analysis of the interrelationship between the production structure of an economy and the distribution of incomes and expenditures of different household groups. In addition, it can be used for multiplier analysis to capture direct, indirect and induced impact on input use due to any exogenous changes in the economy. This SAM consists of 85 sectors of the economy, three factors of production and nine categories of occupational households. The Indian economy is becoming structurally biased towards capital intensive sectors, such as service and energy production. The energy production sector itself is the most energy intensive sector as of 2003–2004.     

Industrial Pollution Linkages in North America: A Linear Analysis

In recent years, a surge of interest in the linkages between trade and the environment has occurred in the contexts of both regional and multilateral trade agreements. In this paper, we utilize a three-country, social accounting matrix (SAM) of the North American economy and data from the World Bank's Industrial Pollution Projection System (IPPS) to conduct a linear multiplier analysis of industrial pollution linkages in North America. We provide estimates of both direct and indirect inter-country effects for a detailed set of industrial pollutants. The strongest linkages occur in the petroleum, chemicals, paper, base metals, and transportation equipment sectors.     

EXTENSIONS TO THE MULTIPLIER DECOMPOSITION APPROACH IN A SAM FRAMEWORK: AN APPLICATION TO VIETNAM

The aim of this paper is to provide an extension of a technique recently introduced by Pyatt and Round (2006) to decompose each element of the ‘global multiplier matrix’ in ‘microscopic detail’ in order to capture the linkages between each household groups’ income and the exogenously injected income of other accounts. The methodology we propose allows dividing the impact of exogenous injections into four different effects: direct-direct effect (D-D); direct-indirect effect (D-I); indirect-direct effect (I-D) and indirect-indirect effect (I-I). Results using the 2000 Vietnamese SAM show that the highest direct effects on the income of household groups are related to exogenous injections into the agricultural sector, while the highest indirect effects result from investing in other agriculture-related sectors such as, for example, food processing. Policy interventions focusing on the agricultural sector and on rural households will thus have the greatest effect on reducing the level of income inequality.     

探究分析风能发电的现状和未来发展趋势

因为风能具有可再生、无污染以及蕴量比较大等一些优点,所以国际电力的发展趋势就是利用和发展风能等一些可再生资源,在未来的发展过程当中,风能发电肯定会具有更加广阔的前景。本文主要就对风能发电的现状以及未来的发展趋势进行了探究和分析。     

我国可再生能源发电产业区域发展能力评价

正确评估我国各省区可再生能源发电产业的发展能力,是制定产业规划、优化资源配置、促进产业快速发展的前提。论文以区域产业发展理论和可持续发展理论为基础构建了评价指标体系,并运用AHP(层次分析法)对全国各省区的可再生能源发电产业发展能力进行了综合评价。     

Enhanced network effects and stochastic modelling in generation expansion planning: Insights from an insular power system

Electricity generation capacity expansion is driven by both economic and socio-political realities. Policy makers determine public infrastructural decisions, such as climate and renewable targets, and transmission infrastructure, and the optimal generation capacity expansion follows. Policy makers therefore require planning models that can determine the optimal generation capacity mix in the long run under various scenarios, including policy choices. This work presents a planning model based on linearised alternating current optimal power flow which determines optimal generation capacity expansion and operation, in a least-cost manner, given global and local technical constraints, as well as policy decisions. We apply the model to a test case of the island of Ireland, which has two weakly interconnected systems, high renewable generation targets and low storage and interconnection. We determine the optimal generation expansion and operation out to 2030 considering the effects of increased multi-area interconnection, existing fossil fuel generation phase-out and increased renewable generation targets and carbon prices. Our results find that costs and emissions are driven primarily by the decommissioning of old inefficient generation units. High renewable targets, on the other hand, render increased carbon prices relatively ineffective in reducing system emissions. Furthermore, high renewable generation targets crowd out low-carbon power generation options such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). The strategic north-south interconnection has little effect on renewable energy source installations required to achieve renewable power generation targets but does impact on security of supply and the congestion level across the island.     

On input-output type output multipliers from incomplete information

Incomplete knowledge of data usually hinders the establishment of detailed input-output tables. It is for this reason that up-dating procedures (RAS) as well as short-cut methods have been developed. In this paper the short-cut output multiplier formula by Drake (1976) is compared with the output multiplier involved in the RAS procedures. It will turn out that both these output multiplier estimates are two special cases of a more general class of estimating procedures. It is demonstrated by an empirical example how this generalized procedure should be applied in practice. The kind of reasoning underlying this paper can be extended to other problems of input-output analysis as well.     

中国风电产业技术创新对风电投资成本的影响

本文通过对学习曲线模型进行拓展,将规模效应对成本下降的影响从技术创新的影响中分离出来,解决了变量遗漏偏差的问题。并采用过程仿真方法,解决了中国风电时间序列数据样本过小的难题,提高了测算风电产业对新技术学习率的准确度。研究发现,中国风电产业的学习率仅为12.7%左右,即当风电累计装机容量增加2倍时,风电的单位投资成本因技术创新的下降率只有12.7%左右。由技术创新带来中国的成本下降不仅远远低于发达国家的,而且低于中国的太阳能等其他的新型可再生能源。因此政府在加大对风电基础科研投入的同时,应将政策的重点放在新技术的转化上。     

Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration

We compare alternative univariate versus multivariate models and frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy sources. The accuracy of point and density forecasts is inspected in four main European markets (Germany, Denmark, Italy, and Spain) characterized by different levels of renewable energy power generation. Our results show that the Bayesian vector autoregressive specifications with exogenous variables dominate other multivariate and univariate specifications in terms of both point forecasting and density forecasting.     

谈电力垄断行业的改革

电力垄断行业的改革对于我国电力行业的发展具有重要意义。这就要求相关部门人员从多个方面考虑,实现水电等可再生能源的发展,提高能源的利用效率,以此来为我国社会发展创造一个崭新的电力行业。