当前央行货币政策工具运用对商业银行的影响

近期,央行通过对存款准备金率、利率等连续多次调整,明显加大了运用货币政策工具进行宏观调控的力度,对经济的调整作用将逐渐显现出来,同时对商业银行的经营战略和盈利能力也将产生一定的影响。商业银行应积极响应央行的货币政策,进一步转变经营理念,优化盈利模式,加快金融创新步伐。     

浅谈稳健的货币政策对商业银行的影响及对策

近期,中央银行通过对存款准备金率、利率等连续多次调整,明显加大了运用货币政策工具进行宏观调控的力度,对经济的调整作用将逐渐显现出来,同时对商业银行的经营战略和盈利能力也将产生一定的影响。商业银行应积极响应中央银行的货币政策,进一步转变经营理念,优化盈利模式,加快金融创新步伐。     

货币政策应注意前瞻性与平衡性

商业银行经营仍面临四重挑战 　　适度宽松的货币政策在一定程度上改善了商业银行的经营环境.但2009年经济增长的不确定性和前期的调控政策对利润空间的压缩作用仍然给商业银行的经营带来了较大的挑战. 　　……     

商业银行适应新形势下货币政策变动的思考

货币政策与商业银行的发展紧密相关。货币政策的变化对商业银行存款、信贷、资金等业务都会产生直接影响,要确保商业银行收入,确保商业银行资产质量不断提高,就必须主动、积极的去适应发展变动中的货币政策,充分利用政策,发挥优势,规避风险,商业银行才能赢得又快、又好的发展。     

我国紧缩的货币政策对商业银行盈利的影响分析

本文研究了紧缩的货币政策对我国商业银行盈利的影响。通过选取四家上市银行作为样本进行实证检验,结果表明:货币供应量增速减少能显著地导致银行盈利减少,商业银行盈利对数量型货币政策反应较为直接;利率上升对银行盈利的影响却是正向的,这与贷款数量对利率的反应不敏感有关。在实证的基础上,进一步提出建议:中央银行在制定货币政策时应考虑商业银行利益,商业银行应积极调整资产负债结构、增加中间业务收入,从而使紧缩的货币政策在取得预期效果的同时增加商业银行的盈利。     

论货币政策工具新常态

在当前经济形势下,新货币政策工具应运而生。文章通过总结新型货币政策工具的推出和操作情况,从烫平经济剧烈起伏,精细化市场操作,增加商业银行补充流动性渠道,降低融资利率等几个方面论述了其对实体经济及商业银行的影响。     

基于EVA的国内上市银行绩效评价体系研究

商业银行作为中国最主要的金融企业既是中国货币政策传导的"枢纽",也是中国资金流动最主要的"调节阀"。商业银行经营业绩的高低对银行体系自身的稳健发展以及国家整个宏观经济的稳定运行都会产生十分重要的影响。近年来,对商业银行绩效评价的研究引起了越来越多商业银行的股东和管理者的重视。如何找到一个可以公正有效地评定银行经营业绩的指标真实地反映银行绩效?在此背景下,一种符合"企业价值最大化"财务管理目标的绩效评价指标EVA产生并得到广泛关注。     

利率期限结构、商业银行投资组合与宏观经济波动——基于DSGE的分析框架

将包含同业业务的商业银行投资组合、利润和利率期限结构的局部均衡模型嵌入以家庭、资本投资者、商业银行、中间厂商和最终厂商为经济主体的DSGE模型中,分析商业银行风险错配、货币政策工具和经济增长对利率期限结构的影响。结果表明:经济增长冲击和商业银行的风险错配冲击对我国利率期限结构的影响最大,其次是数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策冲击。     

我国金融监管的现状及模式选择

一、我国金融监管体制的现状及存在的问题 1.我国金融监管体制的现譧`创我国现行的金融监管模式是分业监管模式.1983年,工商银行作为国有商业银行从中国人民银行中分离出来,实现了中央银行与商业银行的分离,从而使人民银行集金融监管、货币政策、商业银行职能于一身的金融管理体制宣告结束,现代金融监管模式初步成形.当时,人民银行作为超级中央银行既负责货币政策制定又负责对银行业、证券业和保险业进行监督.这时的专业银行虽然对银行经营业务有较严格的分工,但并不反对银行分支机构办理附属信托公司,并在事实上成为一种混业经营模式.     

当前通货膨胀对商业银行经营的影响分析

机后的经济刺激政策带来货币超额投放,从而引起滞后的通货膨胀压力,宏观经济已进入通货膨胀状态。在此背景下,央行货币政策发生重大变化,多次上调存款准备金率和存贷款利息,对商业银行的经营产生重大影响。     

货币区建设与货币政策的独立性：一个分析框架

美国次贷危机引发了全球性金融危机,这凸显了以美国为核心的“金融资本主义模式”和以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行的以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区不可避免会出现“三元悖论”困境。本文提出的贷款准备金政策框架模型,能够解决货币区在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员保持货币政策的独立性问题。     

Structural vulnerability and resilience to currency crisis: Foreign currency debt versus export

Is there any factor that is not analyzed in the literature but is important for preventing currency crises? I argue that exports are an important factor to prevent currency crises that has not been frequently analyzed in the existing theoretical literature. Using the third generation model of currency crises, I derive a simple and intuitive formula that captures an economy’s structural vulnerability characterized by the elasticity of exports and repayments for foreign currency denominated debt. I graphically show that the possibility of currency crisis equilibrium depends on this structural vulnerability and also analyze how this vulnerability impacts the effectiveness of monetary policy response.     

货币替代和反替代对我国汇率影响的实证研究

货币替代和反替代会影响一国汇率政策的有效性和汇率的决定.我国目前货币替代和货币反替代并存,其中货币替代的程度呈现不断下降的趋势,而货币反替代的程度则不断增强.选取2001Q1-2011Q4之间的相关数据为研究样本,通过构建包含货币替代和货币反替代的粘性价格货币模型,实证检验了我国货币替代和货币反替代对人民币汇率的影响程度.结果发现:货币替代和货币反替代都会影响到我国的汇率,进而会降低我国汇率政策的有效性,但货币反替代的影响更加强烈.     

Second Generation Models of Currency Crises

Until the beginning of the 1990s, currency crises were typically analyzed within the framework of a generation of models that assumed that the foreign exchange reserves of a country that was running a fixed exchange rate policy were falling (because the government was running a deficit on its budget that was financed by printing money). When the foreign exchange reserves reached a lower bound, a speculative attack on the fixed exchange rate was launched. Today, this theory is no longer the benchmark when explaining the occurrence of a currency crisis. Actually, a new generation of models that seeks to take explicitly into account the costs and benefits associated with the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate has emerged. This paper surveys these 'second generation models of currency crises'. This generation of models emphasizes that it is an endogenous decision if a government chooses to abandon a policy of fixed exchange rates. The survey pays special attention to the fact that the second generation of currency crises models often generates multiple equilibria for the rate of devaluation given one state of the economic fundamentals. A currency crisis can thus occur even if no secular trend in economic fundamentals can be identified, as in recent currency crises.     

货币供应量对价格体系的传导效应分析

货币作为中间目标变量存在于经济生活中的任何一部分。国民经济的健康运转离不开货币,而货币政策作为重要工具在宏观经济调控中起着举足轻重的作用。本文选用2004年1月-2014年3月货币供应量与价格指数的季度时间序列数据,通过非线性平滑转换模型,实证研究了货币供应量与价格体系之间的动态关系,得出我国货币供应量对价格体系具有较强的传导效应。在基于以上研究结果的基础上对我国货币政策提出了相关的政策建议。     

Negative nominal interest rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound

The paper considers three methods for eliminating the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and thus for restoring symmetry to the domain over which the Central Bank can vary its official policy rate. They are: (1) abolishing currency (which would also be a useful crime-fighting measure); (2) paying negative interest on currency by taxing currency; and (3) decoupling the numéraire from the currency/medium of exchange/means of payment and introducing an exchange rate between the numéraire and the currency; this exchange rate can be set over time to achieve a forward discount (expected depreciation) of the currency vis-à-vis the numéraire when the nominal interest rate in terms of the numéraire is set at a negative level for monetary policy purposes.     

How important is fiscal policy cooperation in a currency union?

By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which assumes a currency union consisting of two countries with nontradables, we study the importance of fiscal policy cooperation. As shown in the previous studies, we find that the role of fiscal policy is important in maximizing social welfare. However, we have a contrary result for fiscal policy cooperation. While the previous studies highlight that fiscal policy cooperation has a nontrivial effect in maximizing social welfare, we show that fiscal policy cooperation has no benefits, regardless of the share of nontradables. Self-oriented fiscal policy can replicate social welfare under the cooperative setting.     

2010年影响我国货币政策走向分析

今年以来,在宽松货币政策的刺激下,我国实体经济呈现出良好的增长势头。但是,我国的货币供给高位和资产价格爬升也已经显露无遗,股市和楼市泡沫经济现象明显,国内通胀阴影笼罩不散。我国的货币政策如何调控现行经济走向是个值得深思的问题。     

Which exchange rate regimes in an era of high capital mobility?☆

This paper asks what influence increasing capital mobility has on the choice of exchange rate regime. Among exchange rate regimes considered are currency boards and dollarization. It is argued that a key lesson of the recent currency and financial crises in the emerging markets is that corner solutions in exchange rate policy may be preferable to less rigidly fixed exchange rates. The paper concludes that in the end the optimal exchange rate regime depends on the circumstances of a particular country and time, because each exchange rate system requires the fulfillment of certain preconditions. The paper then discusses institutional measures and innovations that may be necessary to enable exchange rate arrangements to avoid financial and currency crises or to dampen their consequences.     

The British economy: the way forward

The present government's commitment to economic stability and its depoliticisation of monetary policy are welcome. But saving has been penalised, the flexibility of the labour market has been reduced and so far there has only been tinkering with welfare provision. The government seems intent on joining the single currency but the arguments in favour are weak.