Information asymmetry,sentiment interactions,and asset price

We develop an asset pricing model with sentiment interactions between institutional and individual investors under the condition of information asymmetry. Our model considers private information and investor sentiment, two imperfections in securities markets, and integrates them into a theoretical model to investigate the role of the interaction between information asymmetry and investor sentiment in asset pricing. We show that the joint effect of private information and investor sentiment deviate the price of risky assets and efficiently explains anomalies in the stock market. Investor sentiment changes the effect of information on the equilibrium price relative to a world where all investors are completely rational. Private information changes the effect of investor sentiment on the equilibrium price in comparison with a scenario with symmetric market information. In addition, the individual investors’ learning and the disclosure of information both allow private information to be better integrated into the price and simultaneously changes the effect of investor sentiment on the equilibrium price.     

Dynamic competition with consumer inertia

We study a framework where two duopolists compete repeatedly in prices and where chosen prices potentially affect future market shares, but certainly do not affect current sales. This assumption of consumer inertia causes (noncooperative) coordination on high prices only to be possible as an equilibrium for low values of the discount factor. High discount factors increase opportunism and aggressiveness of competition to such an extent that high prices are no longer sustainable as an equilibrium outcome. Moreover, we find that both monopolization and enduring market share and price fluctuations (price wars) can be equilibrium path phenomena without requiring exogenous shocks in market or firm characteristics.     

Resale price maintenance in a model of consumer search

A retail search model of Salop and Stiglitz (1977) is adapted to analyze manufacturer incentives for resale price maintenance. For some retailer cost functions and distributions of consumer search costs, imposition of a minimum price for retailers causes a price distribution to collapse to an intermediate price. Manufacturers may benefit from price floors when sales to high-search-cost consumers that have obtained lower prices increase sufficiently so as to offset decreased sales to other consumers facing higher prices. In contrast to previous work, no free-riding problem with respect to dealer services is necessary for manufacturers to prefer banning discounting of their products.     

Hedging and the competitive firm under correlated price and background risk

This paper examines the behavior of the competitive firm under correlated price and background risk when a futures market exists for hedging purposes. We show that imposing the background risk, be it additive or multiplicative, on the firm has no effect on the separation theorem. The full-hedging theorem, however, holds if the background risk is independent of the price risk. In the general case of the correlated price and background risk, we adopt the concept of expectation dependence to describe the bivariate dependence structure. When the background risk is additive, the firm finds it optimal to opt for an over-hedge or an under-hedge, depending on whether the price risk is positively or negatively expectation dependent on the background risk, respectively. When the background risk is multiplicative, both the concept of expectation dependence and the Arrow–Pratt measure of relative risk aversion are called for to determine the firm’s optimal futures position.     

Distorted prices and producer efficiency: the case of Romania

This research aims at shedding empirical light on the relative efficiency of small-scale maize producers in Romania. Farmers in transition countries still face heavily distorted price systems resulting from imperfect market conditions and socioeconomic and institutional constraints. To capture such distortions we formulate a stochastic shadow-cost frontier model to investigate the systematic input-specific allocative inefficiency. We further adjust the underlying cost frontier by incorporating shadow price corrections and subsequently reveal evidence on farm specific technical inefficiency. Different models are estimated due to the imposition of curvature correctness and the effects on the individual efficiency estimates are shown. The empirical results show a relative high technical efficiency of the small-scale farmers but relatively poor scores on systematic input price efficiency. The usage of extension services as well as agricultural training on the farm level are found to have a positive effect on the technical efficiency level of the farms. All model specifications further agree on the negative effect on efficiency with respect to the use of insecticides. The imposition of functional concavity on the shadow cost frontier leads to relative differences in the efficiency estimates of up to 240%.      

Pricing and the flat-maximum principle

Profit-maximizing price conditions are well established in economic theory. However, less attention has been directed to the effect on profits of deviations in price from the profit maximizing position. The conditions governing the emergence of a flat-maximum principle are established for both an absolute and relative concept of flatness.     

An economic analysis of Japanese distribution systems

We investigate Japanese distribution systems by using a successive monopoly model in which the dealer can increase demand for the commodity. We compare the Tatene system (TS) with the open price system (OPS), and show that in cases where the dealer's power of sales promotion is small (large), the total profits obtained through TS become larger (smaller) than those of the OPS. This result justifies the actual change from TS to OPS from an economic point of view. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intraday portfolio risk management using VaR and CVaR:A CGARCH-EVT-Copula approach

The study forecast intraday portfolio VaR and CVaR using high frequency data of three pairs of stock price indices taken from three different markets. For each pair we specify both the marginal models for the individual return series and a joint model for the dependence between the paired series. We have used CGARCH-EVT-Copula model, and compared its forecasting performance with three other competing models. Backtesting evidence shows that the CGARCH-EVT-Copula type model performs relatively better than other models. Once the best performing model is identified for each pair, we develop an optimal portfolio selection model for each market, separately.     

Quantity precommitment and price-matching

We study the effects of price-matching in a capacity-constrained duopoly setting. We show that no firm does worse at any pure equilibrium under price-matching relative to Bertrand, but as capacity increases, one or both firms do better relative to Bertrand. If the firms choose their capacities simultaneously before making pricing decisions, then the effect of price-matching varies with the cost of capacity. Specifically, when the cost is “high” price-matching either (i) has no effect on the market price, i.e., the market price associated with the pure SPEs is the Cournot one, or (ii) weakly decreases the market price relative to Cournot. Furthermore, when the cost is “low” price-matching leads to a set of (pure) SPE prices that includes the Cournot price in the interior. Therefore, price-matching does not necessarily benefit the firms when firms select their capacities before competing in price.     

The Relative Price of Non‐traded Goods under Imperfect Competition*

We consider the role of imperfect competition in explaining the relative price of non‐traded to traded goods within the Balassa–Samuelson framework. Under imperfect competition in these two sectors, relative prices depend on both productivity and mark‐up differentials. We test this hypothesis using a panel of sectors for 12 OECD countries. The empirical evidence suggests that relative price movements are well explained by productivity and mark‐up differentials.     

Individual versus institutional investors and the weekend effect

Since the late 1980’s, considerable research has focused on the behavior of individual versus institutional investors and the potential patterns which may emerge from their trading activities. Miller (1988) and Abraham and Ikenberry (1994) posit that the tendency for negative Monday returns on equity (i.e., the weekend effect) is at least partially explained by the trading behavior of individual investors. Sias and Starks (1995), on the other hand, present empirical evidence showing a dominant role played by institutional traders. This study contributes to the literature by distinguishing between individual versus institutional trading as it relates to the weekend effect. We find that the information-processing hypothesis is consistent with observed institutional trading patterns, thus supporting the results of Sias and Starks (1995). In addition, these results are shown to be robust with respect to market type (i.e., auction and dealer markets).     

Visiting the effects of oil price shocks on exchange rates: Quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches

We employ the relatively novel quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches to empirically address the effects of oil price shocks on exchange rates of developed and developing countries. We find the evidence of the effects of oil shocks on exchange rates vary across quantiles. In addition, the effects and causality of oil price shocks are asymmetric and the slope of the coefficient in quantile-on-quantile analysis shows a relatively extreme fluctuation. Furthermore, for the developed currencies, the Granger causal relationship in both the mean and the variance running from oil shocks to exchange rates is always evident at all quantiles, while for the developing countries, the causal flow in the first and second moments is insignificant at middle quantiles.     

The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk

We examine the effect of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk derived from DJIA and S&P500 index returns. Consistent with behavioral asset pricing models, we find significant positive response of rational sentiment suggesting greater incentive for rational investors to engage in arbitrage when the compensation for taking risk is greater. Further, an increase in irrational optimism leads to a significant downward movement, but an increase in rational sentiment does not lead to a significant change market price of risk. These results are robust for both market indexes, DJIA and S&P500 and for both individual and institutional investor sentiment.     

ELUSIVE PERSISTENCE: WAGE AND PRICE RIGIDITIES,THE NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE AND INFLATION DYNAMICS

Abstract We review the main New Keynesian inflation equations that have arisen as a result of aggregation from individual firms' price rigidities. We find that, on the whole, they cannot account for inflation persistence, a key feature of the empirical dynamics of inflation, and with important policy implications. The only exceptions seem to be when indexation is allowed in price setting or when price stickiness is combined with wage rigidity and staggering.     

Large traders and illiquid options: Hedging vs. manipulation

In this article, we study the effects on derivative pricing arising from price impacts by large traders. When a large trader issues a derivative and (partially) hedges his risk by trading in the underlying, he influences both his hedge portfolio and the derivative's payoff. In a Black–Scholes model with a price impact on the drift, we analyze the resulting trade-off by explicitly solving the utility maximization problem of a large investor endowed with an illiquid contingent claim. We find several interesting phenomena which cannot occur in frictionless markets. First, the indifference price is a convex function of the contingent claim – and not concave as in frictionless markets – implying that for any claim the buyer's indifference price is larger than the seller's indifference price. Second, the seller's indifference prices of large positions in derivatives are smaller than the Black–Scholes replication costs. Therefore, a large trader might have an incentive to issue options if they are traded at Black–Scholes prices. Furthermore, he hedges option positions only partly if he has a negative price impact and thus exploits his ability to manipulate the option's payoff. For a positive price impact he overhedges the option position leading to an extra profit from the stock position exceeding a perfect hedge. Finally, we also study a model where the large shareholder has a price impact on both drift and volatility.     

Learning in Advance Selling with Heterogeneous Consumers

Advance selling occurs when consumers order a firm's product prior to the regular selling season. It reduces uncertainty for both the firm and the buyers and enables the firm to better forecast its future demand. The distinctive feature of this paper is that there are both experienced and inexperienced consumers, with the former knowing their valuations of the product in advance. We show that pre‐orders from experienced consumers lead to a more precise forecast of future demand by the firm and that the optimal pre‐order price may be at a discount or a premium relative to the regular selling price. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Price dynamics, retail chains and inflation measurement

We use a large scanner price dataset to study grocery price dynamics. Previous analyses based on store scanner data emphasize differences in price dynamics across products. However, we also document large differences in price movements across different grocery store chains. A variance decomposition indicates that characteristics at the level of the chains (as opposed to individual stores) explain a large fraction of the total variation in price dynamics. Thus, retailer characteristics are found to be crucial determinants of heterogeneity in pricing dynamics, in addition to product characteristics. We empirically explore how the price dynamics we document affect price index measures.     

Microsimulation of Business Performance

Microsimulation of business performance based on sample survey data is a relatively underdeveloped field, but its application in government economic policy formulation is potentially great since it can be used to measure the distributional effects of change rather than just average change. Techniques which account for the dynamic response of businesses to macro level price expectations have recently been developed (Kokic et al. , 1993). These allow individual level business performance to be forecast from sample survey data. In this paper we outline a general methodology for combining these forecasting techniques with Monte Carlo simulation in order to produce a microsimulation of business performance that accurately captures the true distributional characteristics of the underling survey data. Applying this methodology to Australian farm survey data, we show that these methods may be used to forecast the distribution of farm business production and performance within arbitrary subdomains of the surveyed population conditional on a given set of expected commodity price outcomes. The microsimulations reflect both the uncertainty due to climatic variation from one year to the next, which in the Australian context depends largely on geographic location, as well as the uncertainty of commodity prices.     

Production and hedging in futures markets with multiple delivery specifications

This paper examines the behavior of the competitive firm under price uncertainty. To hedge the price risk, the firm trades unbiased commodity futures contracts with multiple delivery specifications from which delivery risk prevails. We show that the firm optimally produces less in the presence than in the absence of the delivery risk. We show further that the concept of expectation dependence that describes how the delivery risk is correlated with the random spot price plays a pivotal role in determining the firm’s optimal futures position. Specifically, an under-hedge is optimal if the random spot price is positively expectation dependent on the delivery risk. The firm’s optimal futures position becomes indeterminate if the random spot price is negatively expectation dependent on the delivery risk.     

Price versus Quantity in a Duopolistic Market with Bargaining over Managerial Delegation Contracts

This paper studies the endogenous choices of strategic contracts in a duopoly with bargaining between the owner and manager of each firm over the content of the managerial delegation contract. We show that when the bargaining power of the manager relative to that of the owner within each firm is sufficiently high, quantity competition based on the quantity contracts chosen by the owners of both firms can be uniquely observed in the equilibrium, whereas quantity competition and price competition can be observed in the equilibrium when this relative bargaining power is sufficiently low. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.