具有约束的均值——半偏差投资组合优化模型

这篇文章以Markowitz的组合投资决策模型为基础,针对该模型以及其改进模型中风险计量方法的缺陷,提出了以半偏差测度风险的思想,并建立了相应的组合投资优化模型。     

The origins of the mean-variance approach in finance: revisiting de Finetti 65 years later

Abstract In a recent critical review of de Finetti’s paper “Il problema dei pieni’’, the Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz recognized the primacy of de Finetti in applying the mean-variance approach to finance, but pointed out that de Finetti did not solve the problem for the general case of correlated risks. We argue in this paper that a more fair sentence would be: de Finetti did solve the general problem but under an implicit hypothesis of regularity which is not always satisfied. Moreover, a natural extension of de Finetti’s procedure to non-regular cases offers a general solution for the correlation case and shows that de Finetti anticipated a modern mathematical programming approach to mean-variance problems. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B30, 90C20 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G11, C61, B23, D81, G22     

Volatility transmission across currencies and commodities with US uncertainty measures

This paper uses the Multi-chain Markov Switching model (MCMS) conditioned on US uncertainty measures (VIX, VIX-oil and FSI) to examine the patterns of volatility transmission across the resource, major and safe haven currencies The results with and without the uncertainty variables generally identify three patterns of volatility transmission: interdependence, spillover and comovement. They reveal the dominance of interdependence over spillovers and comovements when the uncertainty variables are excluded, highlighting the significance of mutual reciprocity of individual market shocks over common shocks across the selected assets. Within portfolios of a two-variable framework (two variables representing two minimum variance portfolios (à la Markowitz), containing a weighted combination of the currencies and of the commodities, respectively), we find interdependence between the two portfolios with and without the VIX, a spillover from commodities to currencies in the case when the FSI is included and independence between the two portfolios in the case when the oil-VIX is accounted for. The implications of the results are important for the portfolio managers in selecting portfolios’ components during high oil volatility periods.     

基于风险预算的资产配置方法

本文根据Markowitz投资组合理论进行最优资产配置的思想,用风险贡献率作为风险预算的表示,提出了基于风险预算理论的次优资产配置方法,为投资者在有多种风险约束和偏好的情况下,确定符合其特定风险预算需求的次优资产组合提供了一种思路。     

论投资连结保险的收益

投资连结保险作为寿险公司的投资型险种,其收益和风险均有投保人承担。收益的取得来源于投资账户投资于银行存款、债券、基金及股票的加权平均收益,即投资组合收益。文中运用马科维茨的均值方差模型及多目标非线性规划模型,引入投资者偏好系数,对投资连结保险的收益进行分析,以期对消费者购买投资连结保险有所帮助。     

An examination of the dynamic behaviour of local governments using GMM bootstrapping methods

Even though recent Monte Carlo evidence has shown that the use of bootstrap critical values, instead of asymptotic ones, improves the size of the tests substantially, empirical applications using GMM bootstrap techniques are largely missing. In this paper, the dynamic relationship between local government revenues and expenditures is re‐investigated using GMM bootstrapping techniques on a panel of 265 Swedish municipalities over the period 1979–1987. A lag of one year is found in the expenditures equation, while no dynamics is found in the own‐source revenues and grants equations. These results, while contrasting sharply with those obtained when asymptotic critical values are used, are well in line with the theoretical explanations given in the literature for dynamic behaviour in the local public sector. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximating exact expected utility via portfolio efficient frontiers

Expected utility theory is nowadays accepted as the standard for rational choice among risky assets. However, as Harry Markowitz recently pointed out, the problem of how the maximum expected utility along the risk–return portfolio efficient frontiers approximates the exact maximum expected utility is still open. This paper shows that some popular risk–return models are actually able to approximate expected utility maximization with respect to classical and new distance measures. It also analyzes the ability of the whole risk–return efficient frontiers to approximate the exact one. Our empirical analysis is based on recent publicly available real-world data sets.     

Modelling the UK gilt-edged market

In this paper we examine the sectoral demand for UK gilt-edged securities. The Tobin–Markowitz model of portfolio choice generates the prediction that asset holdings should be negatively correlated with the own price, and positively correlated with the prices of major substitutes. In contrast, for all the five major groups of UK gilt holders, we find evidence consistent with a reverse correlation between the own price and market holdings which we argue arises due to the passive revaluation of existing holdings. We examine the empirical evidence using both cointegration analysis of stock holdings and a dynamic model of net transactions.     

Gold shares or gold bullion—which is the better investment?

This paper examines, from the standpoint of the US investor, the illative merits of an investment in gold bullion vis-à-vis South African gold shares. Markowitz portfolio-selection techniques are used to examine the relative performance of gold bullion and SA gold shares quoted on the New York stock exchange over the period 1978 to 1983. It concludes that, on average, of the period examined gold shares have proved to be significantly better investments than gold bullion and considers possible reasons for this.     

Back to the roots of the M/D/s queue and the works of Erlang, Crommelin and Pollaczek

A.K. Erlang introduced the M/D/ s queue in 1917, while F. Pollaczek and C.D. Crommelin formalized the theory using complex analysis and transforms. Let D ( s , λ ) denote the stationary probability of experiencing no waiting time in the M/D/ s queue with arrival rate λ and service requirement 1. We use D ( s , λ ) as a vehicle to give an overview of some of the results we obtained over the last years, including explicit characterizations of the roots, the derivation of infinite series from expressions in terms of roots using Fourier sampling and heavy-traffic limits obtained from square-root staffing. We propose to call D ( s , λ ) the Erlang D formula, for which several new results are presented and compared with the results of Pollaczek.     

Do investors still benefit from international diversification with investment constraints?

This paper empirically investigates the potential benefits of international diversification for the U.S. investor with various investment constraints from both long-term and time-rolling perspectives. While the addition of portfolio bounds makes asset allocation more feasible, our findings suggest that adding short-selling and over-weighting constraints reduce but do not completely eliminate the diversification benefits of international investment. The over-time analyses show that diversifying portfolios internationally is still beneficial even though financial markets are becoming more integrated. The out-of-sample test suggests that the Markowitz model does not necessarily realize improved mean–variance efficiency but demonstrates risk reduction. The significant time variation in optimal asset allocation implies the necessity for the fund manager to rebalance international portfolio dynamically.     

风险投资多项目多阶段投资组合决策研究

针对多项目多阶段风险投资,以提高风险投资收益率、成功率和降低投资风险为目标,构建了多项目多阶段投资总体概念模型。在此基础上,利用马可维茨投资决策模型进行项目筛选,然后建立决策树和三级模糊评价模型对单个项目多阶段投资进行决策,得到了在风险资本投资总额一定的情况下的多项目投资组合、项目的投资比例以及单个项目多阶段的投资方式和资金比例。     

A SIMPLE TEST FOR UNIFORMITY

Abstract A new and very simple test for uniformity is proposed. An exact formula for the distribution under H₀ of the corresponding test statistic is derived. This formula is only suitable for computer-oriented use. For other circumstances a table of critical values is given. The power of the test is compared with that of two well-known alternatives: the χ²-test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.     

Changes in supply leadership

The chief purchasing officer (CPO) plays a critical role in ensuring the supply function contributes effectively to organizational goals and strategies. Furthermore, the executive in the organization to whom the CPO reports, the executive report (ER), plays a vital role in breaking down corporate roadblocks, setting priorities and ensuring the proper profile for supply within the organization. This research focuses on supply leadership changes in which an incumbent CPO is replaced and/or the CPO reporting line is changed. Using a case-based methodology in 30 large North American and European organizations a total of 41 CPO replacements and 43 reporting line changes were documented. Data collection and analysis covered drivers, CPO background, key decision makers and tenure for both the outgoing and incoming CPOs and reporting line. The potential implications of these research findings for supply executives are discussed along with opportunities for future research.     

改进后的PERT方法在进度风险分析中的应用

风险分析是进度控制中的重要内容。针对经典PERT网络的假设和计算过程,分析出它存在的三方面缺陷。并提出解决问题的三种具体措施,从概率论与数理统计的角度,对关键线路和关键工作进行了重新定义和确定的方法。     

基于最大熵原理的地铁换乘站乘客流线优化模型

合理的乘客流线设计是地铁换乘站客流组织的关键技术之一。通过引入乘客流线优化测度熵的概念,基于最大熵原理,将乘客流线优化抽象为最大化测度熵的非线性约束优化问题,并构建了乘客流线优化模型。算例结果表明,不同O-D需求下,由于流线方案与换乘站建筑空间布局匹配程度的不同,导致流线方案集合Г的概率分布p(xj)差异显著。     

工作研究在通用汽车GA车间的应用

本设计综合运用了项目管理学中的网络计划技术与生产线产能平衡的相关技术手段对东岳汽车GA车间内饰1线生产系统进行初步改造,并应用Witness系统仿真优化技术对改造后的生产系统进行模拟运行,通过对运行结果的统计分析,发现了影响生产线效率的瓶颈环节,设计的最后应用工作研究的基本方法对存在问题进行了分析与优化,并为重点控制的工位制作了标准化作业指导书,基于项目管理和仿真优化技术的工作研究极大丰富了基础工业工程研究的内涵,对推动现代工业工程在制造型企业的应用与发展具有重要意义。     

Are top human resource specialists 'strategic partners'? Self-perceptions of a corporate elite

Despite the existence of various large-scale surveys of human resource specialists, there has been little research focusing specifically on the top cohort of HR practitioners. In addition, the surveys offer little insight into the ambiguous, but important questions associated with the strategic management process in large, complex corporations. This article reports a study of the qualifications, work histories, role orientations and strategic contributions of the most senior HR specialists in the New Zealand business sector. These elite practitioners typically demonstrate a 'dual background' in specialist HR activities and line management, and strongly subscribe to Legge's notion of 'conformist innovation'. As in the United Kingdom, they tend to focus primarily on the management of managers and, to a lesser extent, the management of industrial relations. Their work is increasingly integrated with other spheres of the business such as quality management. Whether their contribution is regarded as 'strategic' depends on the model of strategic management that informs the question. This paper argues that the survey-based studies have inappropriately adopted 'outside-in' models of strategic management which privilege marketing notions and assume that 'formulation' is more strategic than 'implementation'. The work of these senior HR specialists is more fairly assessed under a conception of the strategic problem which balances external and internal concerns. Given the present realignment of strategy theory, the challenge facing these HR specialists is that of developing frameworks for corporate planning and performance analysis which attribute a more central role to the critical elements of HRM.     

Heavy tails of OLS

Suppose the tails of the noise distribution in a regression exhibit power law behavior. Then the distribution of the OLS regression estimator inherits this tail behavior. This is relevant for regressions involving financial data. We derive explicit finite sample expressions for the tail probabilities of the distribution of the OLS estimator. These are useful for inference. Simulations for medium sized samples reveal considerable deviations of the coefficient estimates from their true values, in line with our theoretical formulas. The formulas provide a benchmark for judging the observed highly variable cross country estimates of the expectations coefficient in yield curve regressions.     

Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio optimization in a jump-diffusion market

In this paper, we take up an approach of (Lindberg, in Bernoulli, 15(2):464–474, 2009) who introduced a new parameterization of the Black–Scholes model that allows for an easy solution of the continuous-time Markowitz mean-variance problem. We generalize the results of (Lindberg, in Bernoulli, 15(2):464–474, 2009) to a jump-diffusion market setting and slightly correct the proof and the assertion of the main result. Further, we demonstrate the implications of the Lindberg parameterization for the stock price drift vector in different market settings, analyse the dependence of the optimal portfolio from jump and diffusion risk and finally indicate how to use the method. We particularly also show how the optimal strategy can be obtained with the restricted use of historical data.