寿命延长与延迟退休：国际比较与我国实证

基于国际比较的视角,探讨人口寿命延长与延迟退休之间的机制关系,分析国际上人口寿命延长与延迟退休的实践。通过对我国人口寿命延长趋势的研究,在一定的精算假设下,测算延迟退休对我国养老金支付压力的影响,并分析经济、制度等因素变动对测算结果的敏感性。结论表明,我国人口寿命延长趋势显著,延迟退休能够有效缓解老金支付压力,但在不同的性别之间有所差异。经济、制度等因素与延迟退休之间具有一定的替代效应,尽管延迟退休是未来我国应对人口寿命延长的必然选择,但目前建立二者的调整机制条件尚未成熟。     

我国基本养老保险体系中个人账户余额发放方式合理化探讨

本文通过精算分析，揭示了目前我国社会养老保险制度中个人账户养老金支付方案的弊端，进而通过基于“选择生命表”的在两个不同假设下的个人账户精算模型的运算，提出个人账户余额发放方式的两种可供选择的替代方案，并经过比较，最终确定其中一种方案为较优的替代方案。     

分账式基本养老金投资管理模式研究——基于产权视角的分析

我国养老金面临着资产价值缩水和支付缺口放大的双重风险,其保值增值问题直接关系到基本养老保险制度的可持续运作。因此,有必要构建新的养老金投资管理模式,在保证安全的基础上提高管理效率。本文从养老金的产权属性出发,提出了对社会统筹养老金和个人账户养老金分别采取委托代理和信托管理两种不同的投资管理模式及相应的法律安排和管理措施。     

弹性退休制下中国基本养老保险隐性债务的测算

伴随人口老龄化,弹性退休制已成为中国养老保险制度改革的重要选项,而解决养老金隐性债务是现行养老金保险制度长期稳定运行的重要保证。作为政策评价的基础,必须对这一养老制度下的养老金隐性债务进行测算。本文根据2013年统计数据,运用非连续的随机精算模型对弹性退休制下中国基本养老保险隐性债务的规模进行测算,为相关部门在弹性退休制下应对隐性债务的相应积累基金的建立、防范养老账户债务风险决策等提供了有效参考。     

中国个人账户的支付能力研究

确保个人账户具有充足的支付能力,是我国养老保险制度具有可持续性的根本前提。本文通过构建我国个人账户的精算模型,改进了支付能力的计算方法。研究结果表明,现有方法将导致个人账户出现支付能力不足;使用国务院有关决定中的养老金计发办法,个人账户将出现严重的支付能力不足,在长期内不具有财务可持续性;若通过调整退休年龄等因素来提高支付能力,应全面分析它产生的影响,否则将适得其反。     

精算技术在企业年金计划中的应用

一、引言职工退休后的收人保障主要来自三个方面,一是政府提供的国家养老金,二是企业提供的补充养老金,三是个人的储蓄,这三方面就是我们通常所说的＂社会保障三支柱＂。虽然各国养老金的政策不同,但都是基于人口统计、生命理论等精算技术,以人口结构、生育率、劳动参与率、经济增长、收人分布等数据,推算出缴费率和替代率及替代率的未来趋势。在社会保障的三支柱中,     

随机利率下新农保个人账户养老金积累金额精算模型研究

随着人口老龄化速度的加快,人口老龄化问题日益突出。将Vasicek模型引入新农保个人账户养老金积累金额精算模型中,得到随机利率下养老金积累金额精算模型,并运用蒙特卡罗方法进行算例分析。结论在估算新农保个人账户养老金积累金额的实际问题中,具有一定的应用价值。     

我国政府综合财务报告试编的难点与对策

本文通过实地调研当前政府综合财务报告试编过程中遇到的难点后发现,当前亟待确定系统的政府财务报告分析方法和指标体系,并解决公共基础设施资产价值的计量和公务员养老金负债的计量列示问题.本文给出了两种财务分析方法和五类财务指标,并建议全面清查存量公共基础设施,根据情况采用四种不同的方法确定基础设施的价值,此外,确定公务员养老金缺口的精算现值,将其作为负债在政府资产负债表中列示.     

数字

养老金缺口达2.5万亿元劳动和社会保障部郑斯林部长曾透露出一个数字——目前我国养老金缺口达2.5万亿元,这个资金缺口相当于我国近一年的国民经济总收入。2005年,我国60岁以上的老年人口已达1.45亿,占总人口的11%,而且每年以3.3%的速度增长。预计到2020年,我国60岁以上老年人将达2.43亿,占总人口的17%。这一缺口将如何解决?劳动和社会保障部部长郑斯林在接受记者采访时表示,养老金不会出现断裂,养老金缺口将由政府出钱补。“国家已成立一个养老基金,由专门的部门来负责。国家拿出钱来作为战略储备,以备将来到老龄化人口高峰     

城镇职工养老保险基金收支不平衡的现状及优化方案分析

借鉴基金收支平衡精算模型,考察退休年龄、养老金投资收益率与养老保险缴费率变动情形下的养老保险基金收支变化.结果显示,2021-2035年城镇职工养老保险基金均存在当期收支缺口,且收支缺口逐年扩大.建议进一步提高基金投资收益率、加大财政补贴力度、合理调整退休年龄,不断提高基本养老保险制度的可持续性.     

The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe: The case of Poland

This paper studies the impact of the recent weakening of Poland's fully funded defined contribution second pension pillar on (i) the long-term sustainability (the deficit and implicit debt) of the full pension system and (ii) the implications for pension benefits (gross replacement rates). Simulation results, based on a stylised version of the Polish pension system, show that, in the baseline scenario, the weakening of the second pillar would permanently lower future pension system debt, chiefly as a result of a cut in replacement rates. But using a combination of pessimistic assumptions including strong population ageing, low real wage growth and an indexation of existing pension benefits on nominal wage growth rather than inflation coupled with bringing in tax expenditures related to the third voluntary pension pillar and an increase in the share of minimum pensioners leads to higher pension system deficits and eventually more public debt at a very long horizon. The simulation results also suggest that if Poland had not transformed its pay-as-you-go first pension pillar into a defined contribution from a defined benefit system, the weakening of the second pillar would deteriorate fiscal sustainability relatively quickly in the baseline scenario. This result suggests that the Hungarian pension reversal would reduce deficit and debt only temporarily, mainly because of Hungary's costly defined benefit first pension pillar: the weakening of the second pillar is tantamount to swapping low current replacement rates (in the defined contribution second pillar) against high future replacement rates in the defined benefit first pension pillar.     

延长退休年龄能降低个人账户养老金的财政补助吗？

本文运用精算模型发现,当女性退休年龄延长至60岁,2039年及以前个人账户养老金的财政补助较现行政策下降0.3%至9.83%,但2040年及以后上升0.44%至4.67%;当男女退休年龄延长至65岁和60岁,2037年及以前财政补助较现行政策有所降低,但2038年及以后不断提高;当男女退休年龄均延长至65岁,2040年及以前财政补助较现行政策有所减少,但2041年及以后不断增加;即使改变任一参数设置,类似情况仍会出现。所以,延长退休年龄只能减少25至28年个人账户养老金的财政补助,之后政府负担逐年加重。     

DETERMINANTS OF PUBLIC PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT RETURN. The role of fund value maximization and public choice theory

Public pension plans are a major type of institutional owner during the new era of investor capitalism, yet little is known about them. Based upon fund value maximization (FVM) and public choice theory (PCT), we develop hypotheses on the determinants of plan performance as measured by plan annual investment return. FVM espouses that the plan's fund or investment portfolio will be invested to maximize return for a given level of risk, while PCT holds that agency costs are significant in the public sector, and will have a negative effect on plan return. Using biennial pension plan data for 1992–96 for several hundred plans, we found that fund value maximization has a much greater influence on plan performance, but that plan performance is also subject to agency costs associated with public choice theory.     

我国养老基金投资的财务分析

养老基金在资本市场中的投资回报是养老基金增值的唯一途径,如何投资运营养老基金是养老金计划中最重要的财务决策。随着我国人口老龄化程度的提高,养老基金的支出压力越来越大。为此,有必要对我国养老基金的投资现状进行分析,探寻提高我国养老基金运作效率的方法和途径,真正实现养老基金的保值增值。     

SAVINGS IN TIMES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE: LESSONS FROM THE GERMAN EXPERIENCE

Pension reforms in many developed countries make individuals shoulder a bigger share of longevity and income risks. The desired response is that individuals accumulate private assets for retirement. Whether this actually takes place, is of paramount relevance for scientists and policy makers. We take Germany as an example: Twenty years of pension reform have transformed the monolithic German pension system into a multipillar system. Formerly generous public pension benefits are gradually being reduced, whereas substantial incentives are granted to occupational and private saving schemes. Has this transition worked out? We survey the reform steps and households’ reactions: How did individuals adjust their labor market behavior? How did private and occupational pension plans take off? How do behavioral adjustments vary in the population? Most Germans adapted to the new situation. Both actual and expected retirement decisions changed and the share of households without supplementary pensions decreased from 73% to 39% in little more than a decade. This is a remarkable success. Nonetheless, households with low education, low income and less financial education did neither adjust their retirement behavior nor pick up supplementary pension plans and are thus likely to face difficulties in bridging the gap arising in future pension income.     

养老金入市的风险控制VAR模型的修正

本文围绕养老金投资股市的市场风险评价和市场风险控制，分析传统市场风险控制模型VAR的不足及技术瓶颈，在考虑养老金投资股市的特殊性的基础上对其进行修正和改进，提出准确性和适应性更强的VG—GARCH-VAR模型，并结合压力测试对未来构建养老金投资股市市场风险分析与控制体系给出方向性建议。     

Population,pensions, and endogenous economic growth

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy and obtain the following results. First, the effect of a decline in population growth on labor productivity growth is positive and quantitatively significant. In our benchmark, it is predicted to increase from an average annual growth rate of 1.74% over 1990–2000 to 2.41% in 2100. Second, institutional characteristics of the pension system matter both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, the assessment of pension reform proposals may depend on whether economic growth is endogenous or exogenous.     

扩大中国养老保障覆盖率的对策分析

中国目前的养老保障覆盖率远低于世界发达国家的平均水平。随着中国经济的持续增长,如何在国家财政可承受的范围内,尽快而有效地扩大包括非城镇人口在内的养老保障覆盖率,是一个亟待研究和解决的问题。文中分析比较了中国与美国、德国、英国、法国、日本、新加坡、智利等国养老保障体系的异同点,探讨了人口与GDP,养老金债务与GDP之间的关系,提出了扩大中国养老保障覆盖率的建议性对策。     

A two-step hybrid investment strategy for pension funds

We propose a two-step hybrid investment strategy suitable for pension funds. Our method consists of an active component (an optimization-based approach to decide the asset allocation), followed by a passive strategy (an index-based approach). We test our strategy with data from the Chilean pension system using two different risk metrics and we show that our approach, in three out of five cases, yields results that are better than those generated by the Chilean fund administrators. In the two cases where our approach underperformed we show that it was the result of excessively tight constraints set up by the regulator.     

养老社区服务意愿与市场需求分析——基于调查问卷的天津市个案研究

随着老龄化程度的不断加深,养老问题成为社会及学界关注的焦点。养老社区作为一种新的养老模式在国内仍处于试水阶段。采取问卷调查的形式详细分析养老社区消费群体的消费特征,包括年龄结构、收入结构、教育程度和消费理念等,深入分析对养老服务的需求程度和养老社区发展的市场前景。