Forecasting systems in managing hospital services demand: a review of applicability and a measure of utility.

A comprehensive literature review of forecasting methodologies and their specific applications to managing hospital services demand provided a credible base for the ensuing study of current forecasting usage. A sample of 40 hospitals was analyzed to measure the current perceived urgency to utilize forecasting systems. These findings were then compared with perceived actual usage. The incidence of formal forecasting systems actually being utilized was lower than the perceived need to use such systems. Identification of principal methodologies utilized and an assessment of computer-assisted forecasting indicated that a strong reliance on qualitative, manually-derived methodologies still remains. Correlation analyses of key exogenous variables indicated that the larger sized hospitals utilized computerized methodologies and had the highest measures of perceived need for, and actual practice of, formal forecasting programs.     

基于包容性发展的绿色水资源价格模型

初步界定了水资源包容性发展和基于包容性发展的绿色水资源价的概念和内涵,在分析我国水资源开发利用特点的基础上,应用自然资源定价理论方法,建立了基于包容性发展的绿色水资源价格模型,给出了一些确定模型参数的简化方法。     

水权与城市供水价格形成机制问题探析

水权制度通过水资源管理体制决定水价形成机制.城市水问题是由不合理的水价形成机制造成的.不涉及水权制度的改革和不正确的水权观念都不可能真正完善水价形成机制.水权理论的真谛在于水权的分散化和可交易化,由此设计的以最终用户水权为基础的城市供水价格形成机制才能真正解决城市水问题.     

GEFCom2012 hierarchical load forecasting: Gradient boosting machines and Gaussian processes

This report discusses methods for forecasting hourly loads of a US utility as part of the load forecasting track of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012 hosted on Kaggle. The methods described (gradient boosting machines and Gaussian processes) are generic machine learning/regression algorithms, and few domain-specific adjustments were made. Despite this, the algorithms were able to produce highly competitive predictions, which can hopefully inspire more refined techniques to compete with state-of-the-art load forecasting methodologies.     

ANALYSING IMPLICATIONS OF LIMITED WATER AVAILABILITY FOR GREAT BARRIER REEF CATCHMENTS

Dependence on water is one of the factors that can determine regional vulnerability in Australia. Climate change is predicted to change rainfall patterns in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region, and scarce water resources have the potential to make regional Queensland economies increasingly vulnerable. Understanding which economic sectors depend on water as an input factor helps in understanding sectoral and regional vulnerability, and thus in guiding regional policy aimed at structural change. Using a regional Queensland Input–Output (IO) model, this paper integrates water consumption of the GBR region and then compares monetary IO multipliers with water consumption multipliers. We argue that these IO multipliers can inform regional decision makers about potential future regional vulnerability by taking into account limited water resources.     

辽宁省水资源承载力及其可持续利用

辽宁省是我国淡水资源较为缺乏的省份。论文使用承载力分析方法,结合最新统计数据,对辽宁省水资源的配置情况进行了定量分析。结果表明:辽宁的水资源承载状况较为严峻,与人口总量比较起来,辽宁处于水资源承载赤字的状态下;从结构上看,辽宁的水资源在各城市间的分配很不均衡,其东部地区水资源情况要明显好于西部地区。在定量分析的基础上,本文进一步提出了辽宁省水资源可持续利用的若干政策思考。     

青山水库水文自动测报系统设计研究

青山水库是辽宁省葫芦岛市最大的水利工程,地理位置十分重要,对水资源的需求、水环境的改善及流域防洪体系的建设起到基础性保障。本文主要介绍了青山水库水文自动测报系统的必要性和覆盖范围及遥测站网布设和系统的设计。     

城市化与水资源开发利用的互动机理及调控模式

城市化与水资源开发利用均是影响城市与区域可持续发展的关键因素,二者之间存在着相互作用与反馈的机制。一方面,城市化引起区域用水总量、用水结构、用水效率等发生变化,并对这种变化产生胁迫与优化作用;另一方面,水资源开发利用对区域城市化具有支撑和约束作用,在水资源短缺地区可以成为城市化速度和规模的重要决定因素。本文探讨了二者之间的响应与反馈机理,并据此提出了调控模式与主要建议。     

麻栗坝水库水情自动测报系统及优化

本文是以云南省麻栗坝水库的水情测报为载体,研究开发水库水情自动监测系统中的工作体制和通讯方式优化,尽可能以较经济的方式达到充分利用水资源、洪水预报和科学调度的目的。     

王河小流域水资源的利用

王河小流域自然村水资源较为丰富,文中从水资源的开发与利用,保护管理等进行探索与研究。     

成都市适度人口容量研究:基于水资源约束的视角

城市化进程的加快带来了城市空前的繁荣,然而也给城市水资源带来了前所未有的压力.本文通过构建水资源约束下的适度人口容量模型,对成都市未来年份的适度人口容量加以预测,并在此基础上提出了相应的和谐发展对策.     

Spatial decomposition analysis of water intensity in China

The shortage of water resources has become a burning issue constraining China's sustained development with significant differences in water intensity among regions and provinces. Quantifying the driving effect of spatial differences in the country's water intensity is very important to the dual implementation actions of water resources and intensity in each region. Spatial analysis reveals the variations among regions, identifies contributing factors, and helps us to better understand the scope for improvement compared to temporal analysis. This paper constructs a Spatial Index Decomposition Analysis (S-IDA) model based on the conventional IDA model referenced in the literature and divides China into six regions according to The 13th Five-Year Plan of Water-Saving Society Construction. We mainly examine the following four parts. First, the driving factors of the spatial difference of water intensity in the six regions are decomposed into intensity effect and structure effect. Second, we measure three industrial differences of the intensity effect and the structure effect in the six regions. Third, we decompose the drivers of the spatial differences of water intensity for provinces within the six regions into the intensity effect and the structure effect. Fourth, we select the results in 2015 to point out the key task of reducing water intensity in the six regions and in all provinces of those regions. The results underscore that each region should formulate and implement a sound water resource policy with differentiation and relevance according to actual conditions and provide a quantitative basis and support system so that regions can learn from each other about specific water-saving measures. These findings provide an insightful understanding of the spatial difference of water intensity and also a quantifiable justification for making building-specific water resources policies, which are discussed at the end of the study.     

The role of judgment,assumptions, techniques,and confidence limits in forecasting population

This paper discusses the fundamental role judgment and assumptions play in forecasting population. It is suggested that so-called “projections” operationally are usually either forecasts or extrapolations. Specific projection methodologies and techniques are shown to embody assumptions. A simple typology of such assumptions is presented as a guide to evaluate forecasts. Tests of projection technique accuracy are cited and it is concluded that such tests cannot succeed due to the assumption factor. Finally, time series forecasting techniques are criticized because their terminology with respect to confidence limits about a forecast is misleading.     

A priority-based multi-objective framework for water resources diversion and allocation in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Because of the degradation of the social-ecological-economic-environmental (SEEE) system, water scarcity has been a growing source of conflicts over the globe. Further, the uncertainty arising from complex water resource scenarios increases the conflicts between the different water users and destabilizes water allocation systems. In this study, a priority-based multi-objective programming (MOP) model (quantitative path) with fuzzy random variables (FRVs) is established for a water resource diversion and allocation (WRDA) problem. To determine the priorities of the multiple objectives, a priority-determination approach (qualitative path) is designed, comprising of a pressure-state-response (PSR) multiple attribute assessment system and a technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS)-based evaluation method. Then the MOP model is transformed into a solvable goal programming (GP)-based model. Because of the inclusion of FRVs, the obtained results can be adjusted to local conditions in view of social, economic, environmental and ecological objective priorities. Therefore, they are more applicable than traditional weight sum or Pareto multi-objective WRDA methodologies. A case study from the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP-MRP) in China is given to demonstrate the practicability and rationality of the proposed methodology in obtaining scientific WRDA plans.     

太湖流域排污权交易制度框架设计

以行政区划为单元的水环境管理体制是造成太湖流域水污染加剧的重要原因之一。排污权交易制度是污染治理的有效手段,水环境的治理应该以流域为单元,充分利用市场机制配置水资源,构建覆盖整个流域的排污权交易市场。本文从法规政策、监测技术、市场潜力和试点经验等方面分析了太湖流域实施排污权交易的有利条件。在此基础上,构建了由排污权交易一级市场和二级市场组成的流域排污权交易制度。     

城市地质灾害勘察中地球物理方法的应用效果

城市地质灾害大多数都是由于人为引起的,常见的有地震、地面变形、泥石流、水土流失、地下水资源恶化、海水入侵等,具有一定的潜在性、突发性、隐蔽性以及危害性。地球物理技术对地质灾害的监测、预报以及防治具有积极的作用。本文就城市地质灾害勘察中地球物理方法的应用效果进行了研究分析,从而促进地质灾害勘察工作有序进行。     

A UNIFYING VIEW ON MULTI‐STEP FORECASTING USING AN AUTOREGRESSION

Abstract This paper unifies two methodologies for multi‐step forecasting from autoregressive time series models. The first is covered in most of the traditional time series literature and it uses short‐horizon forecasts to compute longer‐horizon forecasts, while the estimation method minimizes one‐step‐ahead forecast errors. The second methodology considers direct multi‐step estimation and forecasting. In this paper, we show that both approaches are special (boundary) cases of a technique called partial least squares (PLS) when this technique is applied to an autoregression. We outline this methodology and show how it unifies the other two. We also illustrate the practical relevance of the resultant PLS autoregression for 17 quarterly, seasonally adjusted, industrial production series. Our main findings are that both boundary models can be improved by including factors indicated from the PLS technique.     

水平衡测试在秦皇岛市节水工作中的应用

文章阐述了水平衡测试的概念和作用,重点介绍了秦皇岛市现行的水平衡测试方法和取得的巨大经济效益。认为只有扎扎实实开展好水平衡测试工作,才能真正把水资源的可持续利用落到实处。     

基于多属性决策的城市水资源分配方案的选择

如何在各成员间进行使用权的合理分配是城市水资源管理亟需解决的关键问题.利用多属性决策方法,对城市水资源分配方案的选择进行了研究.研究过程中,提出了应将城市居民,三次产业的生产者,地方政府和相关领域专家纳入水资源分配的决策者集;同时,应在兼顾效率、环境和公平的基础上形成备选方案的属性集;并且,通过实例分析,说明了最优分配...     

基于水耗视角的产业结构调整——以北京市海淀北部地区为例

产业结构调整受到水资源条件的重要影响.本文以北京市海淀北部地区为例,运用灰关联分析法,深入分析了海淀区产业结构调整与用水量的关系;并在综合考虑海淀北部地区产业发展现状及目标要求的基础上,提出了低水耗视角下海淀北部地区应鼓励引进的产业目录,对其他类似地区在水耗视角下的产业结构调整策略的制定具有一定的借鉴意义.