National sovereignty and consumer sovereignty: Some consequences of Brazil’s economic opening

Brazil’s move toward greater openness in its foreign trade and capital account since the 1980s, reflects a weakening of the exercise of national sovereignty for economic objectives. In this paper, we argue that consumer sovereignty has been correspondingly increased. There are costs and benefits to Brazil from both kinds of sovereignty. Increasing constraints on macroeconomic policy making have been accompanied by an increase in the choices open to many individuals. The latter increase, however, has been limited by a highly skewed distribution of income, which has persisted despite the profound changes in economic policy.     

Achieving Temporal Ambidexterity in New Ventures

Organizations face a common intertemporal choice problem, where actions suitable in the shortterm are different from those that work in the longterm. Building on the organizational ambidexterity theory, we argue that organizations can reconcile their short‐term and long‐term tensions, but this does necessitate managerial endeavours that orchestrate this reconciliation. We introduce the concept of temporal ambidexterity and define four intertemporal tensions involving an organization’s objectives, resources, markets, and uncertainty. We examine how firms can address these tensions successfully in the context of new ventures, and to do so we focus on three managerial capabilities of founder‐CEOs: expertise breadth, external connectivity, and empowering leadership. Results from 243 new ventures in China suggest that temporal ambidexterity improves with these managerial capabilities, and more so for younger ventures. Our findings shed light on solutions and mechanisms by which intertemporal balance is fulfilled, particularly for new ventures in a dynamic environment.     

Factor taxation and labor supply in a dynamic one-sector growth model

This paper studies a class of AK-type growth models with factor income taxes, public capital stock and labor–leisure trade offs. While a higher capital tax rate reduces economic growth in the short run, the long-term growth effect is ambiguous and remains ambiguous even if the level of tax rate is larger than the degree of government externality. A higher labor income tax rate has ambiguous growth effects both in the short and long runs. However, if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for labor supply is sufficiently small, a higher labor tax rate always lowers economic growth in the long run, despite the existence of productive government taxation.     

International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences

This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country, two-good world with consumption home bias, recursive preferences, and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country׳s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, to compensate for the greater riskiness of the country׳s output stream. This risk sharing transfer raises the country׳s consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. In the recursive preferences framework here, volatility shocks account for a non-negligible share of the fluctuations of net exports, net foreign assets and the real exchange rate. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption and the real exchange rate.     

Quantifying the economic cost of children: a note on intertemporal equivalence scales

Static economic models based on complete demand systems are inadequate for estimating unconditional equivalence scales; in order to capture the effects of demographic changes on consumer behaviour, a life-cycle dynamic model is taken into account. In literature, studies have presented and evaluated longitudinal equivalence scales and intertemporal cost of children but these cannot be applied in practice when equivalence scales are utilised in poverty or income distribution analyses. This paper proposes intratemporal equivalent income scales, which are within period index numbers incorporating intertemporal consumer behaviour.     

The real effects of inflation in a developing economy with external debt and sovereign risk

In this paper we develop an intertemporal optimizing model to examine the real effects of inflation induced by monetary policy in an open developing economy with external debt and sovereign risk. The economy faces an upward sloping supply curve of debt. In our model, households require real balances in advance for consumption expenditures, and monetary policy involves targeting the inflation rate. We show that an increase in the inflation rate leads to a decrease in the stock of foreign debt. It also leads to a decrease in consumption, employment, capital accumulation and output in the long run. Our results show that the accumulation of foreign debt exhibits non-monotonic adjustment. Particularly, an increase in the inflation rate leads to a current account surplus followed by a deficit. Along with this non-monotonicity, our model also explains the positive correlation between savings and investment during the transitional periods (Feldstein–Horioka puzzle).     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

CGE EVALUATION OF A UNIVERSITY'S EFFECTS ON A REGIONAL ECONOMY: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF EXPENDITURE AND KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS

In recent years many universities have commissioned studies of the effects of their institutions on their local economies. Typically, these impact studies have concentrated on the demand-side stimuli to the regional economy that the university generates. Normally, the studies are undertaken with comparative-static input-output models. The present study employs a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to investigate supply-side as well as demand-side effects. There are a range of supply-side effects that have been investigated in the spatial econometrics literature. The supply-side impacts of the university that we examine in particular are a rise in the average skill level of the local workforce, and successful R&D outcomes. CGE modelling allows simulation of the associated productivity effects, while the dynamic features of the model allow for consequent effects on a region's population and capital stock growth rates to be taken into account.     

THE INTERNATIONAL CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES: A SCEPTICAL VIEW

The international current account imbalances, whereby the USA has a vast deficit and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters, have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for financial claims. There are as likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade.     

FDI与出口贸易结构关系研究(1978～2005年)——基于DLM与TVP模型的检验

本文分析初级产品、工业制品出口贸易结构及出口贸易方式结构变化,并研究其变化原因,同时借助分布滞后模型及变参数经济计量模型,探讨1978年以来FDI对出口贸易结构变化的影响。研究认为出口贸易存在巨大利润空间与政策空间,并促成外资流入规模逐年扩大;但伴随着外资的流入,出口贸易结构并未优化,需要通过政策措施调整FDI的流入规模与方向,进一步实现贸易结构升级。