Measures to tame credit growth: Are they effective?

This paper focuses on policy measures taken to curb bank credit growth in the private sector in the pre-crisis period 2003–2007. Our analysis is based on an original survey conducted in 2010 on eleven central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The findings reveal substantial policy intervention: a total of 82 measures were implemented in CEE during the period considered. The paper presents a panel data analysis of the effectiveness of the policy measures adopted in the region. The overall results indicate that certain measures – particularly asset classification and provisioning rules and loan eligibility criteria – might have been effective in taming bank credit growth, especially if applied in the context of more general policy measures featuring a combination of various instruments. However, in countries in which the authorities managed to somewhat decrease the flows of bank credit into the economy, the measures were often circumvented via direct, cross-border credit from foreign banks and credit provided by domestic, non-bank financial companies.     

HOW SHOULD CAPITAL BE TAXED?

This survey discusses how capital should be taxed in advanced economies. We review the theoretical optimal tax literature, survey empirical studies on the distribution of capital and the distortionary costs of capital taxation, and analyze the desirability of specific taxes on capital income, wealth, property, inheritances, and corporate profits. Our overall conclusion is that capital taxation plays an important role in an optimal tax system, but only certain ways of taxing capital are able to strike a balance between optimality and administrative feasibility.     

MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY – A LITERATURE REVIEW

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the need to go beyond a purely micro approach to financial regulation and supervision. As a consequence, the number of policy speeches, research papers and conferences that discuss a macro perspective on financial regulation has grown considerably. The policy debate is focusing in particular on macroprudential tools and their usage, their relationship with monetary policy, their implementation and their effectiveness. Macroprudential policy has recently also attracted considerable attention among researchers. This paper provides an overview of research on this topic. We also identify important future research questions that emerge from both the literature and the current policy debate.     

Risky bank lending and countercyclical capital buffers

We study the properties of a monetary economy with an essential role for risky bank lending. Banks issue deposits and lend to entrepreneurs. Because banks׳ lending rate cannot be made contingent on aggregate shocks, and because banks face capital adequacy regulations, they require a capital buffer against loan losses. Capital adequacy regulations are modeled on the Basel-III rules, including a minimum capital adequacy ratio, an endogenous capital conservation buffer, and a countercyclical capital buffer. We find that a countercyclical capital buffer leads to a significant increase in welfare. It also reduces the need for countercyclical adjustments in policy interest rates.     

Inflation targeting and monetary policy in Canada: What is the impact on inflation uncertainty?

Inflation uncertainty has been demonstrated both theoretically and empirically to lower real output. This paper examines the impact of inflation targeting in Canada on inflation uncertainty, as well as persistence. Our results indicate that inflation targeting lowered inflation persistence, but actually increased uncertainty. Such an effect may be due to the failure of the previous formal target, the M1 money supply, to successfully combat inflation.     

Macroeconomic and financial stability in a monetary union: The case of Lithuania

In this paper, we study the implications of macroprudential policies in a monetary union for macroeconomic and financial stability. For this purpose, we develop a two-country monetary union new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints, to be calibrated for Lithuania and the rest of the euro area. We consider two different scenarios for macroprudential policies: one in which the ECB extends its goals to also include financial stability and a second one in which a national macroprudential authority uses the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) as an instrument. The results show that both rules are effective in making the financial system more stable in both countries, and especially in Lithuania. This is because the financial sector in this country is more sensitive to shocks. We find that an extended Taylor rule is indeed effective in reducing the volatility of credit, but comes with a cost in terms of higher inflation volatility. The simple LTV rule, on the other hand, does not compromise the objective of monetary policy. This reinforces the “Tinbergen principle”, which argues that there should be two different instruments when there are two different policy goals.     

Does GINI respond to income volatility in an asymmetric manner? Evidence from 41 countries

Previous studies that assessed the impact of income volatility (as a measure of economic uncertainty) on income inequality relied upon either cross-sectional data or panel data, mostly due to the lack of sufficient time-series observations. Now that enough time-series observations are available for many countries, we revisit the issue and assess the possible asymmetric effects of income volatility on income inequality in each of the 41 countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects in almost all countries, short-run impact asymmetric effects in 20 countries, and long-run asymmetric effects in 21 countries. There was much less support when we engaged only in symmetric analysis.     

中国行政垄断的收入与财富分配效应估算

改革开放以来我国行政垄断格局已受到冲击,但行政垄断行业的劳动投入与其高收入和高福利的不相称问题还很突出,直接导致了社会各阶层收入分配的不公与贫富差距的扩大。本文主要利用上市公司和个人收入、消费数据,分别估算并比较了行政垄断对城镇和总体居民的收入与财富分配效应。分析表明,行政垄断企业从消费者那里榨取了巨额的垄断利润,这一利益的转移以及所导致的收入与财富分配的不公效应,对总体居民的影响要大于对城镇居民的影响,而且收入水平越低的阶层受的影响程度越大,由此加剧了我国城乡尤其是农村地区低收入居民的贫困程度。因此,我国相关政策部门应把破除行政垄断作为建设和谐社会的重点予以高度关注。     

货币国际化扩张中的政策行为--基于最优铸币收入的动态分析

货币国际化为其政策主体带来的重要收益之一就是铸币收入。笔者从考察一种抽象的国际货币出发，在建立了相关收益及成本约束的基础上，得出了该货币铸币收入行为的一般性路径规律，即，其基础货币发行速度变化的最优（各期铸币收入现值最大化）动态路径，并对该路径模型作了从单周期到多周期的扩展性描述。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH: MEASUREMENT AND MODELS

Abstract. Analysts debating the consequences of a policy change for the wealth distribution may come to different conclusions because of different views about how the distribution should be defined and measured, or about the processes determining the distribution. The aim of this survey is to provide an analytical framework within which such conflicts may be assessed. The first part of the paper discusses conceptual issues in the definition of 'wealth', and compares methods of deriving estimates of wealth distribution. The second, and larger, part of the paper surveys lifecycle and intergenerational models of the distribution of wealth, including a discussion of the role played by inheritance. The presentation is largely theoretical. Indeed, one of the paper's conclusions is that empirical modelling of the wealth distribution is under-developed, at least for the purposes of addressing many topical policy issues.     

MONETARY POLICY IN A NON‐REPRESENTATIVE AGENT ECONOMY: A SURVEY

It is well known that central bank policies affect not only macroeconomic aggregates, but also their distribution across economic agents. Similarly, a number of papers demonstrated that heterogeneity of agents may matter for the transmission of monetary policy to macro variables. Despite this, the mainstream monetary economics literature has so far been dominated by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with representative agents. This paper aims to tilt this imbalance towards heterogeneous agents setups by surveying the main positive and normative findings of this line of the literature, and suggesting areas in which these models could be implemented. In particular, we review studies that analyse the heterogeneity of (i) households’ income, (ii) households’ preferences, (iii) consumers’ age, (iv) expectations and (v) firms’ productivity and financial position. We highlight the results on issues that, by construction, cannot be investigated in a representative agent framework and discuss important papers modifying the findings from the representative agent literature.     

Jealousy and underconsumption in a one-sector model with wealth preference

The present paper examines the effects of consumption externalities on economic performance in a one-sector model with wealth preference. The presence of the wealth preference generates a wealth effect in consumption growth, which plays a crucial role for consumption externalities to have impacts on the economy. Our main findings are: (i) regardless of the assumption of inelastic labor supply, the distortionary effect of consumption externalities stays in the long run; (ii) the income tax as well as the consumption tax can modify the efficiency; and (iii) the numerical simulations supplement theoretical findings.