地方政府执行房地产调控政策分析

近年来,我国政府针对房价过高问题,陆续出台了一系列调控政策,但是执行效果并不理想。从地方政府行为动机角度出发,运用博弈分析方法,认为调控政策的有效执行受到外部损失、房地产行业税收贡献率、相应调控政策执行成本及对房地产开发商超额利润的惩戒力度等四个因素制约。中央政府对地方政府的政绩考核应以经济为主要指标,以房价调控绩效为辅助指标,调动地方政府执行政策积极性。只有这样,才能从根本上解决房地产调控政策制定与执行不统一的问题,达到对房地产市场有效调控的目标。     

零准备金制度下的货币政策操作框架研究

目前世界上越来越多的国家取消了对商业银行的法定准备金要求,不仅于此,英国、加拿大和澳大利亚等国家的中央银行还采用了通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架,从而主要通过调控短期名义利率来实现既定的目标通货膨胀率,如此操作不但较好地实现了对宏观经济的调控,而且,相比较正法定准备金制度下的货币政策操作,在零准备金制度下,货币当局主要通过引导市场主体的预期来实现政策目标,从而在减少货币政策操作成本的同时,也使得中央银行有了更大的政策实施空间。     

货币政策的数量型工具与价格型工具的调控绩效比较——来自动态随机一般均衡模型的证据

本文基于我国经济发展现实,构建了包含金融加速器、工资调整粘性以及消费惯性的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,从货币政策的冲击效应、非政策冲击下宏观经济波动幅度以及中央银行损失函数等三个方面对比了不同货币工具的调控绩效,研究显示,价格型工具的调控绩效优于数量型工具,而稳健性分析也对此提供了进一步证明。因此,中央银行应积极地运用利率工具以更有效控制通货膨胀和实际产出波动,维护宏观经济稳定。     

高速增长不等于过热 调整结构是90年代的重大课题——1979—1988:中国产业发展政策与经济增长的关系研究报告(摘要)

四、宏观经济政策模拟分析宏观经济政策是执行产业政策的重要于段。1979-1988年间,由于中国正处于由计划经济体制向市场经济转变的初始阶段,宏观经济政策主要仍以直接的指令性计划的形式实施。随着以放权让利为主要内容的改革逐步深入,1985年开始,中央财政收入占国民收入的比重不断降低,许多改革又需中央财政提供支持,因此,中央政府对经济的直接计划调控能力逐步减弱,而相应的间接宏观调控体系又未建立起来。可以说1985-1988年是中国宏观经济调控较为薄弱的时期。因此,本部分模拟的宏观政策仅为金融政策与财政政策的一部分。宏观经济政策模拟方案设计。为了较全面地模拟宏观经济政策支持产业政策、促进     

城市公用事业PPP监管体系研究

在分析中国城市公用事业PPP现行监管制度缺陷的基础上,提出应建立"监管法规政策完善、监管机构执行有力、监管绩效评价科学"的现代监管体系。其基本实现途径是,完善城市公用事业PPP监管法规政策体系,依据法规政策监管,实现监管有据;重构城市公用事业PPP监管机构体系,合理配置监管责权,实现运行高效;构建城市公用事业PPP监管评价体系,根据监管绩效进行奖励或问责,实现激励有效。     

土地政策参与宏观经济运行的空间经济学解析

我国土地政策参与宏观经济运行的实践表明，缺乏有力的理论支撑是土地政策无法因地制宜地对宏观经济运行进行合理、有效调控的重要原因。基于空间经济学视角，系统分析土地政策参与宏观经济运行的“规模报酬递增”与“区域非均质”特征，同时构建基于规模报酬递增的土地政策空间调控模型，揭示土地政策对宏观经济运行发挥作用的内在机制，进而为不同区域内差异性土地政策的制定提供理论依据。     

政策落实跟踪绩效审计的目标及审计路径 ——基于对审计署审计公告的分析与思考

政策落实跟踪审计是实现审计全覆盖、发挥审计促进国家治理、构筑国家经济安全防线的保障.文章通过对审计署近年政策落实跟踪审计实务的分析与思考,提出了政策落实跟踪绩效审计的目标及审计路径,即评价地方政府配套落实政策设计的合理性、执行的有效性、政策执行的效果.政策落实跟踪绩效审计的实质是评价地方政府的管理能力,是否用正确的方法做了正确的事.     

预算绩效评价体系中预算支出绩效的评价方法

借助于现代管理理念和技术手段的进步,绩效预算又重新开始为世界各国所重视。绩效预算通过建立、运用绩效评价体系,能够优化基本支出预算与项目支出预算,能够逐步建立起预算有标准、执行有约束、决算有考评的科学、规范的现代预算管理制度,实现政府预期的调控目标。可见预算支出绩效的评价在整个体系中十分重要,本文正是基于此原因对预算支出绩效的评价方法作出研究。     

抑过剩促内需保持"十一五"平稳发展

总结我国前几个五年计划,都出现过宏观经济政策的中途改变,即"中期变盘"问题.这一现象在"九五"和"十五"都相当明显,到计划执行的中期,宏观经济环境发生骤变,由此导致宏观经济政策发生较大变化."十一五"期间,宏观经济形势仍存在"中期变盘"的可能性.因此,要密切关注形势发展,准确把握调控的力度,提高国家宏观经济管理的水平.     

从传导渠道看土地调控政策效果

土地政策的宏观调控主要是运用经济、行政和法律等调控手段通过对用地总量和土地使用结构的调控对国家的产业结构和产业布局产生影响,其目的是实现宏观经济长期稳定增长、社会可持续发展.     

国债发行规模与GDP和财政支出的关系

国债作为政府筹集资金、缓解财政压力和实施宏观经济调控与现代金融管理的重要工具,适当的国债政策是实现财政政策和货币政策调控目标、促进经济增长的重要手段与保证。我国国债的发行对支持经济的发展起到了重要的促进作用。要优化国债结构,实现国债结构进一步的合理化,就需逐步扩大地方政府债券发行规模,规范国债市场运行,调整国债投资规模与方向,促进我国经济长期稳定发展。     

Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty on growth performance of Pakistan through developing a small macroeconomic model. The GARCH method has been used for construction of economic uncertainty variables related to macroeconomic policies. The structural outcomes clearly indicate that economic policy uncertainty affects negatively on real and nominal sectors of Pakistan. The forecasting of model and different policy uncertainty simulation shocks also indicated that an adjustment in economic policies due to change of policy objectives create uncertain environment in country, which not only deteriorates the investment climate of country, it also affects the economic growth. Our study concludes that economic uncertainty not only reduces the current investment and economic growth, it also affects the future decision of investment and economic growth. This study suggests that sustainable and steady economic policies always reduce economic uncertainty and promote the confidence of economic agents, which help in achieving the targets of investment, trade and economic growth. Our study also maintains the predictability and reliability of government policies for the accomplishment of macroeconomic goals and economic development of country.     

Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis

This study compares a central bank’s leaning against the wind approach with a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies under parameter uncertainty in an estimated DSGE model with two financial frictions. We show that uncertainty of the economic environment is an essential constituent in properly designing macroprudential policy. Although coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies minimizes the policymakers’ Bayesian risk, coordination and non-coordination risks threaten the goals of both authorities. The former describes the situation where the authorities partly resign from implementing the monetary policy objectives to stabilize macroprudential risk. The latter is when conducting a non-coordinated macroprudential policy induces higher total Bayesian risk than when only the central bank minimizes the expected total welfare loss. The robust Bayesian macroeconomic rules show that when financial shocks shrink the banks’ or entrepreneurial net worth, a contractionary macroprudential policy should be combined with an expansionary monetary policy. However, if capital adequacy ratio or risk shocks strike the economy, such a conflict in macroeconomics policy instruments disappears, thus synchronizing both policies.     

嘉兴物流业在“转方式、调结构”中对地方经济增长的影响与策略

嘉兴市在＂转变经济增长方式、调整经济结构＂等宏观经济政策的调控下,采取了许多行之有效的策略,使物流业得到了全面的发展,既拉动了地方经济有效增长,推动了地方社会经济又好又快发展,又进一步提高了城市综合竞争力,提升了城市的形象与品味,实现了嘉兴市成为长三角地区与浙北地区的重要物流枢纽与物流中心的重大突破。     

财政政策转变:从积极到稳健的效应分析

1998年开始,我国实行了以增加投入、扩大内需为主的积极财政政策。实践证明,积极的财政政策为我国有效抵御亚洲金融危机冲击,推动经济结构调整,促进经济持续稳定快速发展等方面,起到了重要作用。但同时也出现了一系列负面影响。目前,我国提出从2005年开始实施稳健的财政政策。如何实现财政政策的转型,这是我国宏观调控政策实施过程中面临的一个重要课题。本文在对积极财政政策分析评价的基础上,从调控政府支出、推进结构性税制改革、控制赤字、转移财政政策功能及支持中小企业发展等方面,提出了我国实施稳健财政政策的思路和对策。     

J2EE架构下“两型社会”建设绩效评价系统的构建研究

全面推进"两型社会"建设,是湖南顺应全球经济一体化的发展趋势、抢占新一轮经济增长点的必然选择。文章从长株潭城市群发展战略目标出发,挖掘影响"两型社会"建设的绩效评价结果的主要因素,并采用J2EE技术平台、基于B/S结构、遵循MVC设计思想,构建一个包括评价数据采集管理、绩效考核管理、综合评估管理、数据统计与分析、系统管理等六大功能模块的综合绩效评价系统,实现对"两型社会"建设进程的动态监测和跟踪评估,力求其评估结果为"两型社会"建设的宏观调控、预测与决策提供理论和实践依据。     

Is there aJ-curve for the economic transition from socialism to capitalism?

It is often assumed that the process of transition from socialism to capitalism involves a dislocation and disorganization of the economy in the early stages of the transition. Thus, it is argued, economic performance will at first worsen and then gradually improve as the new system takes hold. This paper argues that, based on evidence from Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, there is no evidence for such aJ-curve phenomenon. Using a simple macroeconomic model, we show that, in these three reforming countries, the decline in production can be explained by exogenous shocks to the balance of trade, to investments and to autonomous consumption. This finding also suggests that macroeconomic policy in these countries may be too restrictive to permit a recovery of employment and production.     

Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach

It is a well-known fact that the housing market, with its associated mortgage securities, plays a crucial role in modern economies. The recent crisis of 2007, triggered by the U.S. real estate bubble, confirms this key role and suggests the importance of regulating mortgage lending. This paper investigates these issues by designing a housing market with a linked mortgage lending instrument in the Eurace agent-based model. Our results show that the presence of a housing market in the model has relevant macroeconomic implications, driven mainly by the additional amount of endogenous money injected into the economy by new mortgages. This additional money generally helps to support and stabilize aggregated demand, thus improving the main economic indicators. However, if the regulation of mortgage lending is too lax, involving an increase in the debt-service-to-income ratio (DSTI), then the additional supply of mortgages no longer enhances macroeconomic performance, and the stability of the economic system is undermined. Based on a number of recent discussions, a regulation of stock control that targets households’ net wealth (a stock), rather than income (a flow) is designed and analyzed. The results show that regulation of stock control can be combined effectively with DSTI to increase the stability of the housing market and the economy as a whole. Interestingly, the regulation based on stock control also directly affects mortgage distribution among households, avoiding excessive concentration. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that the use of a mild flow control regulation, coupled with a stricter stock control measure, fosters sustainable growth and eases first-time buyers access to the housing market, encouraging homeownership.

     

“后危机”时代下我国财政政策的选择

为了应对1997年的亚洲金融危机和2008年的国际性金融危机,我国先后采取了两次积极的财政政策.文章通过对这两次积极的财政政策的背景和内容进行比较,分析我国在宏观调控中的新特点.并通过对第一次财政政策的退出机制的分析,认为我国在“后危机”时代仍应继续实施积极的财政政策.     

货币供应量对价格体系的传导效应分析

货币作为中间目标变量存在于经济生活中的任何一部分。国民经济的健康运转离不开货币,而货币政策作为重要工具在宏观经济调控中起着举足轻重的作用。本文选用2004年1月-2014年3月货币供应量与价格指数的季度时间序列数据,通过非线性平滑转换模型,实证研究了货币供应量与价格体系之间的动态关系,得出我国货币供应量对价格体系具有较强的传导效应。在基于以上研究结果的基础上对我国货币政策提出了相关的政策建议。