冯·杜能模型与城市商品房价格上涨机理

借鉴冯·杜能模型分析城市商品房价格上涨机理,可得出以下结论:当购买城市周边区商品房相比购买中心区商品房少支付的房价大于等于居住周边区所需多支付的居住成本时,理性购买者会作出购买周边区商品房的决策;随着周边区相比居住周边区居住成本的降低,周边商品房价格水平会趋近于中心区商品房价格水平;当周边区居住成本相对稳定时,周边区商品房价格水平受制于中心区商品房价格水平.随着城市的发展,商品房价格水平呈长期上涨趋势.控制城市中心区商品房价格与加速卫星城建设是平抑城市商品房价格的有效途径.     

Estimating Housing Price: Kriging the Mean

The price of houses and its evolution in recent years is one of the issues that citizens and, of course, political and economic authorities are worried about. In most of the developed countries the mean price (per square meter) of houses in an area is estimated by a simple average of single prices from a sample of houses that does not take into account the spatial correlation among the prices. As an alternative to this classic procedure, in this paper we propose a linear estimator of the mean price of houses, using the kriging estimator, which has been specially designed for the case of spatially correlated data in a given domain. This estimator is the best unbiased linear one and provides a more realistic estimate of the mean price of houses in the urban area we are interested in. Obviously, the modelling of the variogram function is a central point in the global estimation process.     

Are auction revenues affected by rising art buyers’ premia? The case of early American art

The steady rise in the premiums charged to art buyers at auction (above hammer price) has been underway since 1992. This article, using a stable and bounded sample of repeat purchase of American works created before 1950, reveals that this tact has reduced hammer prices for that art. However, renewed and hyper-competitive efforts to bring more and higher quality art to market by the two main houses, Sotheby’s and Christie’s, have resulted in general profitability. Nevertheless, we calculate that a rise in buyers’ premia at Sotheby’s, a publically traded company, has reduced revenues and profits below their potential in the absence of such increases.     

Pricing Discretion and Price Regulation in Competitive Industries

Price capped firms enjoy a large degree of pricing discretion, which may harm customers and competition. We study two alternative regulatory regimes to limit it: the first regime (Absolute) places a fixed upper limit to the prices charged in captive markets, while the other regime (Relative) constrains the captive prices relatively to the competitive ones. Under the Relative regime, captive prices are only weakly lower and competitive prices are always higher than under the Absolute regime. However, the number of competitors and/or their output may be higher under the Relative regime. While the effects on aggregate welfare are ambiguous, there is some evidence that the Relative regime is more likely to increase consumers’ surplus and social welfare the more efficient are the competitors.     

NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY*

The United Nations' newly completed study of purchasing power parities covering 34 countries varied in region, income level, and form of economic organization shows the systematic differences between the usual view of the structure of the world economy arising out of international comparisons based upon foreign exchange rate conversions and the structure one sees when actual prices are available. The real per capita GDP of developing countries is understated relative to developed countries when exchange rates are used in converting countries' national income accounts to a common currency, with the degree of understatement for any two countries being inversely related to the per capita income difference between them. The reason for this is that relative prices in the non-traded goods sector are lower relative to traded goods prices in low income countries. The systematic pattern observed in the 1975 data of the 34 countries has been extrapolated over time and space to get estimates of GDP for other years and countries. In the absence of detailed price data, the real shares of final expenditures devoted to particular components of the total can only be estimated as the proportion of own currency total expenditure devoted to the components. The observed differences in the pattern of prices of poor countries relative to rich for different components makes this clearly wrong for international comparisons, and in systematic ways. For example, (i) the relative price of services compared with commodities in poor countries is lower than in rich; so the apparent tendency of the share of services to rise as a country's income rises disappears when real quantities are considered; similarly, (ii) the relative price of capital goods is greater in poor countries compared with rich ones, so the difference in investment ratios out of GDP between rich and poor countries is understated.     

Housing prices and tenure choice with asymmetric taxes and progressivity

This paper studies the effects of tax schedule changes on prices and tenure choice in the housing market. It is shown that, given the present asymmetric treatment of owner-occupants vs. renters, an increase in the degree of progressivity is likely to lead to an increasein the prices of both owner-occupied and rental housing. A numerical example indicates that the effects may be quite large. Equilibrium prices are calculated based on the actual Swedish income tax schedules for 1971 and 1979. According to these simulations the tax changes that took place between these years caused the price of owner-occupied houses to increase by around 30 percent, and the rent level to increase by 2 or 3 percent.     

Has Canadian house price growth been excessive?

The dramatic rise in the ratio of Canada's average house price to average rent has led to speculation that there is a bubble in the Canadian housing market. Others have argued, however, that the currently high level of house prices may be rationalized by the low cost of financing, given the decline in interest rates over the last two decades. In this article, we assess these arguments through the lens of a simple asset pricing model applied to city‐level data. We quantify the extent to which excess growth in Canadian house prices depends on the nature of the current regime governing real interest rates, expectations of rent growth in different cities and variations in property taxes.     

Housing prices and crime perception

In this article, we combine data from the housing market with data from a victimization survey to estimate the effect of crime perception on housing prices in the City of Barcelona from 2004 to 2006. Using dwelling data and a hedonic price model (using both OLS and quantile regressions), in the first stage, we estimate the shadow price of the location of dwellings. In the second stage, we analyse the impact of crime perception, after controlling for other district characteristics such as local public spending and immigration, on this locational valuation. After accounting for the possible endogeneity of crime and housing prices, our findings suggest that crime exerts relevant costs beyond its direct costs. Indeed, a one standard deviation increase in perceived security is associated with a 0.57 % increase in the valuation of districts. Moreover, in districts perceived as being less safe than the average for the City of Barcelona, houses are highly discounted. Less safe districts have on average a valuation that is 1.27 % lower.     

GIS-Based Hedonic Pricing of Landscape

Hedonic prices of landscape are estimated in the urban fringe of Dijon (France). Viewshed and its content as perceived at ground level are analyzed from satellite images supplemented by a digital elevation model. Landscape attributes are then fed into econometric models (based on 2,667 house sales) that allows for endogeneity, multicollinearity, and spatial correlations. Results show that when in the line of sight, trees and farmland in the immediate vicinity of houses command positive prices and roads negative prices; if out of sight, their prices are markedly lower or insignificant: the view itself matters. The layout of features in fragmented landscapes commands positive hedonic prices. Landscapes and features in sight but more than 100–300~m away all have insignificant prices.     

Congestion pricing of Canadian airports

Abstract Under congestion pricing, Canadian airports would annually save between $72 and $105 million. Social costs per landing and takeoff decrease about $300 at Toronto and Vancouver and $50 at Calgary and Montreal. Slot constraints fail to eliminate this airport congestion. Congestion prices are lower on average than existing weight‐based prices. Current airport capacity accommodates at least five more years of traffic growth before congestion reaches current levels. Substantial welfare gains occur even if dominant airlines already internalize their self‐imposed delays. This article calculates equilibrium congestion pricing schedules, traffic rates, queuing delays, layover times, and connection times by time of day.     

The Entry Cost Shock and the Re‐rating of Power Prices in New South Wales,Australia

Australia has long been the beneficiary of low, stable power prices. A decade‐long state of oversupply underpinned this result and while plant capital costs had been rising, the cost of capital had been declining. These offsetting effects locked the wholesale market into an average cost of $35–$40/MWh. However, from 2007, a simultaneous and sharp rise in new entrant plant capital costs and the cost of capital occurred. The combined effects crept up on the industry while it was in a state of oversupply. This ‘entry cost shock’ disrupted a 7 year long equilibrium price, with average power system cost rising to $60/MWh.     

RIGID PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SCANNER DATA

This article uses weekly scanner data from two small U.S. cities to characterize time and state dependence of grocers' pricing decisions. In these data, the probability of a nominal adjustment declines with the time since the last price change. A store's price for a particular product typically goes through several price changes in rapid succession before settling down. We also detect state dependence: The probability of a nominal adjustment is highest when a store's price substantially differs from the average of other stores' prices. However, extreme relative prices typically reflect the store's recent changes instead of changes in average prices.     

The Demand for Australian Rules Football*

Declining attendances at Australian Rules football games organized by the VFL recently have become the focus of much concern. An econometric analysis of the demand for football is presented, using annual average attendance data for the years 1950–86. It is found that increases in admission prices had a significant negative effect on demand, and increases in real income a positive impact. Amongst other variables of importance in explaining demand are lagged attendance and uncertainty of outcome. Elasticities of demand are calculated and it is shown how they might be used to predict attendance under different pricing scenarios.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE SOURCES OF STAGFLATION AN EXAMPLE: FRANCE AND GERMANY, 1971–79

Stagflation is a combination of an increasing rate of inflation with a decreasing rate of real growth. It appears when the inflationary gap of production costs raises faster than the inflationary gap of expenditures on Gross Domestic Marketable Product. The decomposition of these two gaps into their main elements gives then the possibility of determining the sources of the inflationary increase in costs and the causes of the relative retardation of the inflationary increase in expenditures. The main cause of stagflation in 1974 for France and Germany was the huge rise in oil prices which had not been immediately followed by an equal rise in prices of their exports. The inflationary rise in wages is an almost permanent factor of stagflation in France; in Germany its responsibility is involved only before 1975. In France the insufficient increase in the inflationary gap of expenditures was mainly due to the restrictive monetary policy and to the official price regulation. In Germany the restrictive monetary policy also contributed to the slowdown in demand in 1974 and 1975. In 1977, on the contrary, the main cause of stagflation was the slackening of export demands due to the world recession and the revaluation of the DM.     

NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

With few exceptions, only cormmodity flows and values which can be determined by means of commodity flows (flows of goods and services) are calculated in constant prices in the official national accounts of the Federal Republic of Germany. Figures an the industrial origin and the final use of the national product are published, the former according to thirty industries, the latter according to the major types of uses of which in particular private consumption expenditure has been further analysed. The computations at constant prices are based on market prices and not on factor costs. It is only on this basis that a uniform valuation of the production and the expenditure side can be made since the turnover tax, which is the most important indirect tax, is contained in the elements of final demand in varying shares and cannot be eliminated (the tax is part of the price and has cumulative effect). The computation at constant prices presupposes a breakdown of the values in current prices according to quantities and prices. This raises a number of problems, e.g. because seller and buyer may consider differing aspects-production costs, technical attributes, etc., on the one hand, and use etc., on the other hand. In part there exist only vague ideas, or no ideas at all, as to what is to be considered-from a theoretical point of view-as quantity and price. In other cases the two values can only with great difficulties, if at all, be quantified, or there exists no market price and only the production costs are available. The author deals in greater detail with differences in quality and new commodities, the determination and treatment of quantities and prices for services, in particular for trade services (services attached to goods), the computation of government services at constant prices considering the development of productivity in public service, the determination of the values calculated as balances, above all the treatment of changes in the terms of trade for net exports of goods and services, the computation of the contributions of industries to the gross domestic product and, finally, the reconciliation of the production and the expenditure side. In a third section the author deals with index formulae and the base year. In the majority of cases values are deflated; partly, however, they are currently adjusted by means of volume and quantity data. On the production side the two methods are in part combined. In a concluding section a survey is provided of the computation methods used in the Federal Republic of Germany and on the available material for the computations. Mention is made of depreciation at constant prices.     

LARGE FIRMS AND PRICE CONTROL

With the increase in the rate of inflation in recent years, most economists have probably come to accept the need for price control, even though they might oppose it in more normal circumstances. However the view is still very wide- spread -among economists and probably among politicians and the general public – that for an effective system of price control to exist, it is only necessary to control the prices charged by large firms. It is believed that smaller firms will then follow suit, either because they are forced to by the competition of large firms or for some other reason. Recent experience in the U.K. seems to refute this thesis conclusively. It is in the sectors in which small firms predominate that prices rose most rapidly during the two or three years preceding the imposition of price control; this has continued since price control was imposed in November 1972. No explanation of this is attempted, but it is argued that if price control is to be effective it must be extended to all firms irrespective of size. This would raise administrative problems, but it is suggested that these could be dealt with. The character of inflation, like other aspects of the economic situation, can change rapidly. It is possible that with the introduction of the three-day week in British industry in February 1974 (as a consequence of the miners’strike) and the continued rise in import prices (especially the price of oil) the high profits which characterised the years 1971, 1972 and 1973 in Britain will prove to be temporary. However the basic point remains. During these years, the rise in profits added significantly to the increase in retail prices, and this rise took place not only in sectors where large firms are found but also in sectors characterised by the predominance of small and medium-size firms.     

How and where the R&D takes place in creative industries? Digital investment strategies of the book publishing sector*

The innovative and strategic models of creative industries (CIs) in the digital economy are capturing an increasing interest in recent years. Yet, most of the literature deals with creation and talent and very little with technological and innovation perspectives. Innovation is in general considered from a single viewpoint: a means to develop new creative contents. This article investigates an important issue that has been surprisingly neglected in scientific literature and public reports: the topic of R&D and technological innovations in CIs. The article characterises how and where R&D takes place in the book publishing industry. A systematic identification of R&D developments concerning e-book technology has been achieved using an original methodology set up to feature the technological strategic evolutions. The results provide a reliable cartography of the value chain through an adaptation of the open systems interconnection layers model. This framework helps to understand the new digital ecosystem of the book publishing sector and the strategies carried out by the editorial houses.     

Nominal rigidities and retail price dispersion in Canada over the twentieth century

Abstract We introduce a new data set on over 230,000 monthly prices for 10 goods in 50 Canadian cities over the 40‐year period from 1910 to 1950. This information, coupled with previously published price information from the late twentieth century, allows us to present one of the first comprehensive views of nominal rigidities and retail price dispersion over the past 100 years. We find that nominal rigidities have been conditioned upon prevailing rates of inflation with a greater frequency of price changes occurring in the 1920s and the 1970s. Additionally, the process of retail market integration has followed a U‐shaped trajectory with many domestic markets being better integrated – as measured by the average dispersion of retail prices – at mid‐century than in the 1990s. We also consider the linkages between nominal rigidities and price dispersion, finding results consistent with present‐day data.     

IMPACT OF HIGHER NATURAL GAS PRICES ON THE NORTHEAST REGIONAL ECONOMY

This paper examines the impact of higher natural gas prices on the Northeast regional economy. While there is a common belief that higher gas prices will further disadvantage the already high-energy-cost Northeast, recent analysis suggests the opposite conclusion. Simply stated, by virtue of using relatively little natural gas, industry in the Northeast will likely experience an improvement in its competitiveness as gas prices rise; at the same time, the region could contribute relatively little to the higher revenues for gas producers. In contrast, by virtue of high population, high income, political strength, and improved competitiveness, the region will likely receive at least its proportionate share of these revenues as they are recycled throughout the national economy