The development and use of machine tools in historical perspective

Improvements and diffusion of machine tools have had a major impact on productivity in manufacturing industry since the Industrial Revolution. The impact has been both direct and indirect. The direct impact consists of rising labor productivity through the use of faster, more accurate, more mechanized machines, and of the higher capital productivity through higher operating rates, greater reliability, and higher utilization rates. The indirect impact arises as the use of new or improved machine tools has necessitated or facilitated organizational changes affecting both labor, capital, raw materials, and energy. The magnitude of these impacts has varied over the years with the areas of application as new production methods have made possible entirely new products or lowered the cost of existing products sufficiently to create new markets. The first part of the paper contains a review of the historical development of machine tool technology since the Industrial Revolution, paying particular attention to the role of interaction between producers and users of machine tools. The second part focuses on the way in which recent development differs from that in earlier periods. In particular, it is found that the major changes in machine tool technology, from the so-called American System of Manufactures in the early 19th century to the development of ‘Detroit Automation’ in the 1950s, have tended to improve mass production methods. By contrast, the development of numerical control, beginning in 1948, has opened up the possibility of extending industrial production methods and automation to areas previously characterized more by handicraft methods. Even though this technology is not yet fully utilized, it is clear that the economics of industrial production has been revolutionized by the cost reduction of small scale production relative to large scale and the degree of flexibility offered by the technology. The third section of the paper deals with the present development trends, particularly discussing the increasing importance of flexibility and the shifting emphasis from development of individual pieces of machinery to integration and control of entire manufacturing processes, i.a. through the use of industrial robots. The reasons for the need for greater flexibility in manufacturing are also identified.     

ASSET FORFEITURE AS A LAW ENFORCEMENT TOOL

This article examines the impact on deterrence of laws that allow the seizure of assets used in the commission of a crime but owned by someone other than the offender. The results suggest that forfeiture can be used effectively, in combination with more standard tools (criminal fines or imprisonment), as a deterrent under certain conditions, but the risk of overuse is real. In particular, complete forfeiture (seizure of the entire value of the asset) is not generally socially optimal, but when enforcers are rent‐seekers who care primarily about the revenue generated by forfeiture, they will use the tool to the maximum extent allowed by law. (JEL H11, K14, K41)     

SIP墙板的综合性能分析

SIP墙板具有保温节能、施工方便和材料利用率高等优点,是一种综合性能很高的木结构复合材料。文章基于苏北速生杨木的已有科研及应用成果,通过参考轻型木结构的相关规程,针对SIP墙板的使用功能进行了讨论,评估该材料的综合性能并探讨了SIP墙板的综合设计方法。分析表明,SIP墙板轻质高强,具有良好的物理性能。     

Advancing into the 21st Century: Visions and Challenges Facing the Downunder Economy

Long-term visions serve to focus on essentials for sustained economic and social welfare. We now have to face up to the challenge of globalisation (growing international capital mobility), at a time when we are undoing our historic, self-imposed protectionism. This also creates new opportunities, in particular in the dynamic Asia-Pacific economies.
There still is a 'window of opportunity' before an aging population will become a dominant problem. In the next 25 years, business will have to cope with high real interest rates and major uncertainties that now surround environmental policies.
If we are to take on these challenges in constructive and beneficial ways, we have to develop an institutional order that enables the utilisation of knowledge by enterprising people. This requires a simple, transparent and reliable legal and regulatory framework, which supports competitive market processes, and the defence of openness to international trade and capital flows against particular interest groups.
It seems plausible that the Downunder economy can grow over the next 25 years at about 3.5 per cent per capita if the right institutional conditions are created. If we fail to do so, a growing share of the capital, the skills and the enterprise made Down-under will move to offshore locations which encourage a better use of knowledge and capital by enterprising people. This would deprive many of economic opportunity. The central challenge therefore is to develop a system of government and labour relations which makes the Downunder economy internationally attractive.     

Existence Value and the Contingent Valuation Method

People express concern about the possible extinction of animal species which they will never see, about damage to wilderness areas they will never visit, and so on. Such concerns are often interpreted by economists in terms of 'existence' or 'passive use' values. Three views have been proposed regarding the appropriate way of dealing with existence values in benefit-cost analysis. First, the existence values and concerns about environmental preservation that are not related to use may be disregarded. Second, concerns about environmental preservation may be taken into account, but not interpreted as existence values or evaluated in monetary terms. Third, the benefit-cost analysis may be modified to incorporate monetary estimates of existence values. Advocates of the third approach have developed a range of techniques for eliciting existence values, collectively referred to as the contingent valuation method. In this paper, the concept of existence value and the techniques of contingent valuation are surveyed, with the aim or providing a basis for comparisons of the three approaches described above.     

Technological progress and sustainable development: what about the rebound effect?

Sustainability concepts that rest on the idea of resource- or energy-efficiency improvements due to technological progress tend to overestimate the potential saving effects because they frequently ignore the behavioral responses evoked by technological improvements. Efficiency improvements also affect the demand for resources and energy, and often an increase in efficiency by 1% will cause a reduction in resource use that is far below 1% or, sometimes, it can even cause an increase in resource use. This phenomenon is commonly labeled the rebound effect, which is well-known among energy economists, but never attracted much attention in ecological economics. The paper starts with the traditional neoclassical analysis of the rebound effect in a partial equilibrium framework that concentrates on the demand of one particular energy service such as mobility or room temperature. It also provides an overview of some of the main empirical studies based on this model that mostly confirm the existence of the rebound effect, but are controversial about its actual importance. However, we have to go beyond the neoclassical single-service model in order to take care of the variety of possible feedback affecting energy use. The paper presents two important expansions of the single-service model in order to show the potential relevance of the rebound effect to ecological economics. First, it is shown that in a multi-services model it proves to be difficult to make general statements about the relevance of the rebound effect. In this case, the overall effect of an increase in energy efficiency on total energy use depends on the on the assumptions about the substitutability between the services considered and the direction of the income effect. Second, the paper also tries to take care of the fact that changes in resource use or energy use are frequently just ‘side-effects’ of other forms of technological progress. Especially technological change of a time-saving nature can have a large influence on energy use as many time-saving devices (for example, faster modes of transport) require an increase in energy consumption that is frequently reinforced by a ‘rebound effect with respect to time’. This effect will be especially strong when wages are high and, at the same time, energy prices are low, as is currently the case in most industrialized countries. Consequently, the paper also provides a strong argument for the introduction of energy taxes.     

Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century

The growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change. We present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting (MFA). On the grounds of published statistical data, data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources, we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass, fossil energy carriers, metal ores, industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005. This period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth. The paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy, population growth and primary energy consumption. We show that during the last century, global materials use increased 8-fold. Humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons (Gt) of materials per year. In particular, the period after WWII was characterized by rapid physical growth, driven by both population and economic growth. Within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials. Materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy, but faster than world population. As a consequence, material intensity (i.e. the amount of materials required per unit of GDP) declined, while materials use per capita doubled from 4.6 to 10.3 t/cap/yr. The main material groups show different trajectories. While biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth, the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace. We show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use, while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions. So far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development.     

二元经济中城乡混合基尼系数的计算与分解

关于基尼系数计算方法的文献已经十分丰富,但专门计算城乡混合基尼系数的理论方法,却一直没有得到很好的解决,这导致全国收入分配长期变化方面的某些研究难以深入。本文建立了城乡混合基尼系数的新算法,并给出新的分解形式,同时还提出并论证了度量城乡差距的新指标。该分解形式具有明确的经济含义和理论意义,并且不依赖于“城乡收入分布不重叠”的假定。利用这一分解形式的经济含义,我们分析了几个重要理论问题。最后,应用新算法计算并分解了中国个别年份的城乡混合基尼系数,以检验新算法的有效性。     

The environment as a challenge for governmental responsibility — The case of the European Water Framework Directive

The European Water Framework Directive is shaping a new conception of integrative water protection. In this article, the consequences of the Water Framework Directive in respect to national environmental policy will be discussed in referring to the notion of responsibility which is a central concept of political philosophy and theory. It will be shown that the new conception of integrative water protection entails a fundamental change in European water protection policy and also environmental policy at all. It implies that environmental policy has not only to prevent environmental damage but in particular has to warrant a good status of the environment, such that it must maintain a good status of water or even achieve it if this status does not exist. Achieving and maintaining a good status of the environment is, however, an encompassing task. Thereby, state power will eventually be overexerted. The threat of such overexertion has to be kept in mind in discussing the perspective of the so called New Environmental Governance. It will be pointed out that the New Environmental Governance is not primarily a form of some sort of democratic participation but rather designed to improve state power in environmental politics.     

Some Teaching Techniques for High School Economics

In this article two high school economics teachers describe several teaching techniques that have proven successful in their school. The use of a team approach is briefly explained, and the importance of student motivation is stressed. Among the methods included are skits, plays, the use of video tapes, simulations and games, and the analysis of important economic problems. The means by which the instructors are evaluating their course are set forth, with evidence that the experience helps to destroy commonly held myths about economics and greatly improves student understanding of basic principles.     

Merger Policies and Trade Liberalisation

This paper is about the interactions between trade policy and a narrow but important aspect of competition policy, namely merger policy. We focus on links between merger policies and trade liberalisation. We put special emphasis on the topical issue of the role that international agreements such as the GATT play when merger policies are nationally chosen. Of particular concern is the possibility that liberalisation of international trade will induce countries to use competition policies to promote national interests at the expense of others.     

Beyond the obvious: Examining ways of consolidating early detection schemes

In the domain of futures studies, the need to develop methods and concepts to identify risks or opportunities “early enough” has become an issue and almost a discrete sub-field with its own debates, specialties and schools of thought.Our examination of the literature in this domain shows that early detection, early warning or weak signal analysis, to mention just a few of the terms being used, tends to convey the idea that finding faint evidence of possible futures is actually rather easy. We, however, believe that it is far from being an off-the-shelf process for whoever wants to detect early signs of changes. At the very least it raises cost/benefit questions, and it may have some shortcomings which, if ignored, could substantially increase the vulnerability of an organization. Our goal in this paper is to explore ways of going beyond an overly optimistic approach and provide a basis for the pragmatic use of weak signals and similar notions in strategic management and policy-making processes.After browsing through the several approaches that propose methods for the “early” tackling of trends, uncertainties, risks or opportunities to come, we will focus on the approaches defined by 1) weak signals and 2) early warnings or equivalents for the analysis of possible futures. We will in particular examine how mainstream claims have been presented then improved in the last 25 years, as well as how some of the problems involved have been insufficiently addressed so far. We will then show how these problems (closely linked to how the early perception claims are configured — how they are framed and modeled but also made affordable and useful) can directly impact the performance and management style of the organizations and societal settings in which they are deployed. The concluding section will propose a pragmatic approach to the problems raised: paradigmatic weaknesses or forms of blindness. This precautionary principle should lead to a real option approach in terms of futures to be considered and evaluated, so as to enhance the chances of avoiding risks, as well as following up promising directions, radical innovations or, more generally, strategic decision-making processes in both the corporate and policy-making arenas.     

顾客价值模糊综合评价研究

顾客价值理论是目前市场营销学科的一个崭新领域,它适应本世纪充满竞争和个性化顾客的多变环境而产生,为企业经营者带来新的思维和理念。理论和实证研究表明：顾客价值是企业获得竞争优势的驱动因素,顾客满意和顾客忠诚是企业追求的最终目标,也是顾客价值提升的结果。本文在国内外文献研究的基础上,从品牌形象、顾客质量感知、顾客成本感知、顾客满意、顾客忠诚5个维度构建顾客价值评价体系,运用模糊数学和模糊熵的理论和方法,建立顾客价值的模糊函数、模糊综合评价模型和顾客价值计算方法。本文通过实证研究验证了顾客价值模糊综合评价的可行性和实用性,从而得出了具有指导和借鉴意义的结论。     

企业资源管理系统实施的经济评价研究

利用净现值评价法和期权定价理论,探讨了企业资源管理系统(ERP/ERPⅡ)实施的经济评价问题,选择了ERP/ERPⅡ项目实施后的综合效益评价的基本指标,分析了评判的详细过程,以此指导评判项目实施后企业的最终综合效益。     

忠诚顾客对竞争性营销说服的抵制——信息涉入度和产品知识的调节作用

有显著品牌忠诚的顾客会对外来的竞争性营销说服信息进行抵制,其进行抵制所采用的模式主要有偏好性拒绝模式、最小化影响模式和属性相对权重模式。笔者以国内皮鞋行业和皮鞋品牌为实验对象,探索了这三个模式中的调节变量。实证结果发现,顾客的信息涉入度对"偏好性拒绝模式"有显著的调节作用;顾客的产品知识对"属性相对权重模式"有显著的调节作用;但顾客的产品知识对"最小化影响模式"没有显著调节作用。     

A theory of innovation for process-based innovations such as nanotechnology

Many see Nanotechnology as the technology that will underlie the next Schumpeterian wave creating new opportunities for wealth and job creation. Further it is a process based or materials technology. Yet all currently used models of innovation are based on assembled products or service products and these simply do not recognize the differences in materials products nor the “enabling” nature of Nanotechnologies. If nanotechnology is poised to become the economic engine of this millennium and if current models of innovation, which are utilized, by policy makers and firm based strategist alike are based on technology product paradigms that are dissimilar to the realities of nanotechnology and other process-based technologies then there is cause for concern.Here the authors provide a model and supporting cases demonstrating a new process or materials based innovation model that is based on the tight coupling between product and process innovation of not only Nanotechnology-based products but other process-based products. This is an important finding, because it identifies and remedies a gap in the literature associated with earlier process and product innovation models. For process-based products like materials, food, chemicals and nanotechnologies any change to the manufacturing processes results in significant changes in end product features. The implications of this model to practice are considered.     

Genomics and proteomics: the next generation of health care

Biotechnology research will dramatically impact health care, and the pharmaceutical industry in particular, in the coming decade. Health outcomes may be improved in a cost-effective manner through the ability to selectively prescribe medications; safer, more effective treatment may reduce long-term health care costs. As genetic testing becomes the standard of care, new challenges will surface around how genetic information will be used or misused, and how and where health care dollars are spent.     

Judgment aggregation in search for the truth

We analyze the problem of aggregating judgments over multiple issues from the perspective of whether aggregate judgments manage to efficiently use all voters' private information. While new in judgment aggregation theory, this perspective is familiar in a different body of literature about voting between two alternatives where voters' disagreements stem from conflicts of information rather than of interest. Combining the two bodies of literature, we consider a simple judgment aggregation problem and model the private information underlying voters' judgments. Assuming that voters share a preference for true collective judgments, we analyze the resulting strategic incentives and determine which voting rules efficiently use all private information. We find that in certain, but not all cases a quota rule should be used, which decides on each issue according to whether the proportion of ‘yes’ votes exceeds a particular quota.     

Designing analytical data frameworks

The article is about design of analytical data frameworks that make optimal use of micro data available to serve the needs of the policy analyses and create a maximum number of data checks at the macro or meso level. As the SNA is one of the most extensive analytical data frameworks, the notions developed in this paper will be applied mainly to data segments of the SNA and in particular to a much used data segment of the SNA, i.e. the Supply and Use Table (SUT). The larger part of the paper focuses on defining a simplified SUT and using a so-called "system of classifications and correspondences," that is based on international SNA and classification standards but taking into account specific features of the economy of a country, data availability and the type of analysis served by the framework. The simplified SNA should be comprehensive, but should avoid unnecessary cross-classifications of data and details.     

当前做好报刊零售工作的几点思考

伴随着市场经济的发展,报纸之间的竞争已不再局限于报纸内容,而是将竞争上升到营销即报纸发行这样一个实现产品自身价值的层面。报纸作为一种信息传播工具,其传播对象是数以万计的读者,同时还要将广大的读者对其关注所产生的＂注意力经济＂即＂眼球经济＂销售给广告商。而面对科技高速发展的今天,报纸发行业所面临的不仅是来自各种报刊之间的竞争,还有来自于电视媒体、网络媒体等多种形式媒体之间的竞争。在中国报业正在面临深化文化体制改革的大背景下,必须在新的市场竞争中以完善发行管理做好报纸发行工作,从而更好地发挥报纸发行在报业经济中的作用。