THE ACCOUNTS AND THE COMPUTER

(1) The primary contribution from the computer's application to the national accounts may well be to erode the line between micro and macro analysis. Key macro totals in the accounts sum individual company reports. The computer permits us to develop distributions of these reports. Such distributions, regularly presented, would permit discovery of the first forerunners of change, would help distinguish, e.g., widespread strength in an export drive or a profits surge, from participation by a few major concerns that dominate the aggregate.
(2) The strikingly different parameters in cross section and time series studies (e.g., price elasticity of housing) will in some measure reflect incomparability between the micro data that enter into each. The computer makes possible the use of the wide array of micro data that really underly the accounts to develop consistent analyses of time series (of both aggregates and distributions) and cross section analyses.
(3) The inconsistencies now imbedded in the accounts but gilded over by the abilities of the estimators are well-known. Discussions of wage price policy rest on data for wages that have no necessary compatibility with data on profits, etc. But since 1,500 corporations account for at least half of U.S. net income, sales, and investment, the computer can test the consistency of reports made by different units in these firms to different agencies—a process totally out of the question before the computer.
(4) The potential that the computer offers for prompt revisions in the accounts; for revisions by systematic rule; for tests of sensitivity of the entire set of accounts to particular tailor-made adjustments, is clear.
(5) Company purchase orders and accounts are increasingly recorded on cards or tapes. From these we may derive input-output detail and process detail that are light years better than those now feasible from intermittent survey aggregates.     

城市与区域关系演化过程及新时代特征

城市与区域关系是定位和指导城市与区域发展的立足点,理清城市与区域关系是实现科学发展的重要保障。分析城市与区域的基本关系及其演化动因和演化过程,以此考察我国传统的城市与区域关系特点,以及全球化与知识经济时代城市与区域关系的新特征和发展趋势,指出我国城市与区域关系处于区域框架指导下的城市主导发展时期;新时期,城市的功能性和区域的整体性是城市与区域关系的核心。在一定时期内,我国城市与区域对立统一关系依然存在,同时,随着城市实体地域与功能地域的空间扩展,城市与区域的边界趋于模糊,城市与区域地理单元走向交织缠绕和相互融合。     

唐山市跨世纪发展定位及经济社会发展战略优势与机遇

本文通过实地调研把唐山跨世纪经济社会发展的战略定位为环渤海地区经济核心区的重要组成部分,京津唐地区以能源原材料及深加工工业为主的新兴沿海港口城市,华北地区主要经贸中心之一和外向型经济的重要基地及冀东地区中心城市。围绕城市发展定位,今后唐山将积极发挥生产供应功能、双向服务功能和新港带动功能,并对进一步发展的战略优势和发展机遇及面临的挑战做了分析。     

POSSIBILITIES AND PROBLEMS OF RECONCILIATION OF THE SNA AND THE MPS

This paper reviews the underlying concepts and definitions of SNA and MPS in order to identify those areas where the differences in the content or classifications of the corresponding aggregates of these systems of national accounting can be eliminated or reduced in the course of the present or the future work on the revision of both SNA and MPS. This will bring the systems nearer to each other and improve international comparability of national income data. In cases where such a reconciliation is not feasible, the introduction of certain modifications or clarifications in the selected sections of SNA and/or MPS will be a useful step.
Pursuing this objective, the paper introduces the following classification of the intersystem differences:
—differences in the fundamental concepts and definitions;
—differences caused by the peculiarities in the
—institutional set up;
—so called "incidental" differences.
On examining the above classification the paper comes to the conclusion that each group requires its own approach. The second conclusion is that possibilities for reducing intersystem differences are more promising in the case of the third group.
The paper uses the simplified MPS matrix in order to demonstrate the usefulness of certain modifications in the MPS classifications. These modifications do not imply any deviations from the fundamental concepts and yet they could facilitate international comparability.
The paper also discusses certain modifications (or clarifications) concerning some aggregates which could be useful in the context of international comparisons.     

TALKING LESS AND MOVING THE MARKET MORE: EVIDENCE FROM THE ECB AND THE FED

This paper examines and compares the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and their effectiveness. First, we find that the surprise components of both monetary policy actions and statements have important but differing effects on asset prices, with unexpected communication having a much greater impact on longer‐term interest rates. Second, both the ECB and the Fed have proven to be equally successful in moving their domestic asset prices using either monetary policy or news shocks. However, the response of the American yield curve to the surprise component of Fed's statements is larger than the reaction of the European term structure to ECB's announcements. This result is intimately related to the amplitude of the policy rate cycle that is much larger in the US than in the euro area combined with the bounded support of the news shock. Third, we analyze the cross‐effects and show that the Fed has been more able to move the European interest rates of all maturities than the ECB to move American rates. This finding is tied to the predominance of dollar fixed income assets rather than to an attempt of the ECB to mimic the Fed.     

城乡一体化的理论渊源及其嬗变轨迹考察

运用历史分析法,以时间为经,以理论为纬,对城乡一体化的理论渊源及其嬗变轨迹进行了系统考察。结果表明:有关城乡联系的早期论述是城乡一体化的理论渊源,马克思恩格斯的城乡融合思想将其推向了一个新的高度,而由二元结构理论衍生的城乡偏向发展观却使城乡联系理论难以为继,可它又在一定程度上为其回归奠定了坚实基础,并使之更加深入发展,从而促成了今天关于城乡一体化的热烈探讨。最后,基于当前中国城乡关系的复杂性和特殊性,从理论和实践两个方面指出城乡一体化理论研究对推进中国城乡一体化进程的启示意义。     

中国建筑园林的南北差异

我国建筑和园林南北差异明显。在园林方面,南巢北穴,缘由不同;南敞北实,形式不同;南水北石,要素不同;南花北柏,植被不同;南私北皇,社会背景不同。在宗教建筑方面,南方多佛教名山和道教洞天福地,北方多佛教石窟。此外,在民居的空间布局和建筑形式方面、街坊格局方面,也有差异。建筑和园林的南北差异是我国地域文化景观的重要组成部分。     

THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE AND THE COASE THEOREM

This paper considers the relevance of the Coase Theorem to the analysis of sports leagues. It is widely believed that there exists an ideal competitive balance between teams in a sporting contest, and that without competitive restraints to redistribute resources championships will be too unbalanced. The paper reviews the empirical evidence on this issue to date, and then examines a model where the outcome may be either too little or too much competitive balance. Empirical evidence from English football suggests that the bias is likely to be in favour of too much competitive balance. The implications for European football in general and the Champions League in particular are then discussed.     

异质性企业贸易理论的起源与发展

本文旨在系统性地探究异质性企业贸易理论的起源与发展过程。首先对促使该理论诞生的实证挑战从企业的选择性出口、市场进入成本、资源再分配三个方面进行了综述;然后指出该理论发展的两条脉络和各自的理论基础,并在此基础上从平均生产率和贸易利得两个角度阐述了异质性企业贸易理论和新贸易理论之间的紧密联系,二者最大的差别便在于对边际生产成本的处理上,前者以边际成本的异质性替代企业的异质性,后者则忽略了企业之间的异质性。同时,针对国内学者的一些认识,本文也提出了自己的看法。     

改革开放30年来中国的城市化与城镇发展

改革开放30年是我国城市化发展与城市建设取得巨大成就的30年,30年来我国城市化水平不断提高,年均提升0.93个百分点,现已稳步迈人城市化加速发展时期,城市化发展速度比世界平均水平快2.14%,但城市化水平仍比世界平均水平低8.40%,花了近半个世纪进入城市化加速成长的中期阶段,约25年后进入城市化发展的成熟期.城市化发展道路的数度调整有力地推动着我国城镇化朝着健康方向发展,初步形成了产业分工合理、空间竞争有序、市场运行高效的城镇体系,城镇体系的合理化使城市群成为国家参与全球竞争与分工的基本地域单元,成为国家综合配套改革试验的先行阵地,主宰着我国经济发展的命脉.城市化研究的理论水平不断提高,相关研究机构与人才不断涌现.在取得巨大成就的同时,我国城市化进程中也不可避免的暴露出一系列亟待解决的现实问题,这些问题能否在新一轮发展中得以解决,直接影响着我国城市化发展的未来和美好前景.未来我国城市化道路的选择,将立足我国资源环境承载能力,以不断提高城市化发展质量为核心内容,形成由城市群和大、中、小城市、小城镇及城乡协调发展的健康城市化格局,形成资源节约、环境友好、经济高效、社会和谐的城市化健康发展新格局,走资源节约与环境友好的健康城市化道路.     

北京奥运会与上海世博会旅游业效应及对比分析

分析了2008北京奥运会和2010上海世博会将给旅游业带来的期间效应、长期效应以及空间效应，并对其影响力进行了比较分析。提出北京和上海应该借鉴2000年悉尼奥运会等活动的成功经验，延长事前效应和后续效应，以增强奥运会和世博会对旅游业的影响力。     

THE FED AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

This study asks whether the Federal Reserve has actively made monetary policy so as to aid the president's reelection. Using Shiller's smoothness "prior" to estimate the shape of cycles, the study finds a political business cycle in unemployment and a preelection increase in growth of the money supply. But the timing of these two cycles is inconsistent. Furthermore, little evidence exists of a cycle in the instruments of monetary policy. Thus, the Fed is not actively creating a political business cycle. Apparently, movements in real money that are not caused—but are not offset—by the Fed are an important cause of the political business cycle.
Elections influence Fed behavior. Monetary tightness occurs early in a presidential term, before reelection incentives become critical. This is due to the Fed's political weakness. Thus, the Fed's independence only partly insulates it from electoral pressures.