Assessing the macroeconomic impact of alternative macroprudential policies

This article assesses effects on the wider economy and overall costs and benefits of two alternative macroprudential policies - loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital adequacy targets. It also traces the potential effects of such policies if introduced prior to the subprime crisis. The work is performed within the National Institute Global Econometric Model, with a focus on Germany, Italy and the UK. Detailed banking sectors and addition of a macroprudential block to our model enable effects of policies to be captured. A systemic risk index tracks the likelihood of the occurrence of a banking crisis and establishes thresholds at which macroprudential policies should be activated by the authorities. Capital adequacy impacts the economy by acting on the spread between borrowing and lending of corporates and households, while loan-to-value transmits through its impact on the housing market. We find generally loan-to-value policy has a lesser effect than capital adequacy on crisis probabilities and net benefits, but there is considerable cross country variation. We show that the introduction of macroprudential policy prior to the crisis would have led to improvement in a number of key macroeconomic measures and might thus have reduced the incidence of the crisis.     

INCOME UNCERTAINTY,CONSUMER DURABLES INVESTMENTS,AND HOME PRODUCTION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on home durable purchase decisions, and empirically evaluate the efficacy of consumer durable policies under uncertainty. A model of lumpy home capital adjustment shows that elevated uncertainty leads households to adopt a cautionary perspective and postpone their capital adjustment. We test this prediction using microevidence from China where both uncertainty and home production are substantial. We exploit a wide‐scale rebate program funded by the Chinese government as a natural experiment, and examine the impact on household investment. We find strong, significant, and robust evidence that greater income uncertainty inhibits durable adjustment. Our findings highlight the impediment that income uncertainty poses to investment in home durables, which are often considered as “engines of liberation” in emerging economies. (JEL E21, E64, J22, O16, O23, D91)     

Insurance of Household Risks and the Rebalancing of the Chinese Economy: Health Insurance,Health Expenses and Household Savings

This paper studies the effects of a public insurance system, the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) on household savings in rural China. We develop a theoretical model in which we explain the impact of health insurance on savings through the impact of health insurance on out‐of‐pocket (OOP) health expense given the household level of wealth and seriousness of illness. We test the model empirically using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. We run endogenous and exogenous quantile regressions to evaluate the effects of NCMS participation on the distributions of household savings and OOP health expense. The impact of NCMS varies with the seriousness of illness. The NCMS induces an increase in OOP health expense for mild illness and, inversely, a decrease in health payments for more serious illnesses. The NCMS also leads to a higher incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending. The impact of the NCMS, given a certain state of illness, also varies with the household level of wealth. Poor households face health expense for both mild and serious illnesses. As the NCMS has opposite effects on the OOP expense for these two kinds of illness, we observe no effect on poor households’ precautionary savings. Because the decrease in OOP health expense for mild illness is larger for less poor households, the NCMS induces a decrease in their savings. For the most affluent households, the higher decrease in OOP spending on most moderate illness is dominated by a sharp increase in catastrophic expense, causing an increase in savings. To significantly reduce household savings and enhance household consumption, the NCMS has to offer better coverage against both serious and catastrophic health risks.     

The Pattern of Household Savings During a Hyperinflation: The Case of Urban China in the Late 1980s

This paper presents evidence on household savings in urban regions of the Chinese provinces Sichuan and Liaoning, based on data from the State Statistical Bureau's Urban Household Survey for the late 1980s. In this period the Chinese economy was subject to extensive reforms that resulted in rapid economic growth followed by extremely high inflation. The high inflation rates gave the households strong motives to switch from financial savings to purchase of consumer durables, which also appear to be consistent with the structure of the observed data. By providing empirical evidence on the relative importance of savings by lower, middle and upper income groups for single-child families and for all households, this study also discusses whether savings decisions depend on the level of household income. Single-child families are focused, not only because of their growing dominance in the current Chinese society, but also to control for the effect of demographic disparities.     

Destined to Receive: The Impact of Remittances on Household Decisions in Armenia

The paper uses data from Armenia to test the implications of remittance flows on behavior of receiving households. We find that remittance‐receiving households work fewer hours and spend less on the education of their children. While saving more, these households are not leveraging their savings to borrow from the banking system to expand their business activities. This evidence suggests that the benefits of remittances might be overstated and emphasizes the importance of measuring their impact in a general‐ rather than a partial‐equilibrium context.     

Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong

In the wake of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the macroeconomic discussion has returned to the topic of proactive macroprudential policies. The use of loan‐to‐value (LTV) policies to curb booming property markets has long been used by Hong Kong's monetary authorities to actively manage the potential fallout from housing price bubbles. In 2013 the Hong Kong authorities supplemented the LTV policies with property transfer taxes. Here, we also analyse the merits of these tax‐based macroprudential policies in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Furthermore, we calibrate the impact of both countercyclical macroprudential policies employed in conjunction with forward guidance. We conclude that both policy approaches can limit the pace of housing price increases. As regards the comparison of LTV and tax‐based measures, it turns out that property acquisition taxes are more effective.     

The savings behavior of migrant workers : Turkish workers in W. Germany

This paper presents an analysis of savings behavior of Turkish households residing in W. Germany using survey data. It is found that there exists a statistically significant difference in the savings behavior of households who migrate from urban areas of Turkey and those who migrate from rural areas. The estimated savings function is non-linear with respect to household income. While education and the occupation of the head of household do not have statistically significant impacts on the savings of either group, age of the household's head has a statistically significant impact on the savings behavior of both groups.     

A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy

We construct a small‐open‐economy, new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general‐equilibrium model with real financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. The model incorporates rich interactions between the balance sheets of households, firms and banks, long‐term household and business debt, macroprudential policy instruments and nominal and real rigidities and is calibrated to match dynamics in Canadian macroeconomic and financial data. We study the transmission of monetary policy and financial and real shocks in the model economy and analyze the effectiveness of various policies in simultaneously achieving macroeconomic and financial stability. We find that, in terms of reducing household debt, more targeted tools such as loan‐to‐value regulations are the most effective and least costly, followed by bank capital regulations and monetary policy, respectively.     

WHY HAS HOME OWNERSHIP FALLEN AMONG THE YOUNG?*

We document that home ownership of households with “heads” aged 25–44 years fell substantially between 1980 and 2000 and recovered only partially during the 2001–5 housing boom. The 1980–2000 decline in young home ownership occurred as improvements in mortgage opportunities seemingly made it easier to purchase a home. This article uses an equilibrium life‐cycle model calibrated to micro and macro evidence to understand these developments. A trend toward marrying later mechanically lowers young home ownership after 1980. We show that the large rise in earnings risk that occurred after 1980 can easily account for the remaining decline in young home ownership.     

Do Germans Save to Leave an Estate? An Examination of the Bequest Motive

I investigate whether a bequest motive for savings influences the post-retirement wealth trajectories of German households. Two measures of the bequest motive are studied: the existence of children as the main group of potential heirs and the respondents' declared intention to bequeath. While having children has no significant impact on households' wealth trajectories, stated bequest intentions are associated with considerable heterogeneity in wealth holdings. The main conclusion from this study is that both the pure life-cycle model and the life-cycle model with bequest motives provide a valid basis for a theory of household wealth accumulation once the heterogeneity of preferences is acknowledged.
JEL classification : D 91; J 14     

Global banking and the conduct of macroprudential policy in a monetary union

This paper questions the role of cross-border lending in the definition of national macroprudential policies in the European Monetary Union. We build and estimate a two-country DSGE model with corporate and interbank cross-border loans, Core-Periphery diverging financial cycles and a national implementation of coordinated macroprudential measures based on Countercyclical Capital Buffers. We get three main results. First, targeting a national credit-to-GDP ratio should be favored to federal averages as this rule induces better stabilizing performances in front of important divergences in credit cycles between core and peripheral countries. Second, policies reacting to the evolution of national credit supply should be favored as the transmission channel of macroprudential policy directly impacts the marginal cost of loan production and, by so, financial intermediaries. Third, the interest of lifting up macroprudential policymaking to the supra-national level remains questionable for admissible value of international lending between Eurozone countries. Indeed, national capital buffers reacting to the union-wide loan-to-GDP ratio only lead to the same stabilization results than the one obtained under the national reaction if cross-border lending reaches 45%. However, even if cross-border linkages are high enough to justify the implementation of a federal adjusted solution, the reaction to national lending conditions remains remarkably optimal.     

The Impact of the German Child Benefit on Household Expenditures and Consumption

The German Child Benefit (‘Kindergeld’) is paid to legal guardians of children as a cash benefit. The benefit does not depend on household income or other household characteristics. I use exogenous variations in the amount of child benefit received by households in the German Socio‐Economic Panel to estimate the impact of a given change in the child benefit on food expenditures of households, the probability of owning a home, rent per square meter, measures of the size of the home, as well as parents’ smoking behavior and parents’ alcohol consumption. Households primarily increase per capita food expenditures in response to increases in child benefit, and they also improve housing conditions. The effect of child benefit on per capita food expenditures is larger for low‐income households compared to high‐income households. I do not find a significant effect of child benefit on parents’ smoking or drinking.     

The effects of elections on macroprudential policy

We provide evidence for a specific challenge in the design of macroprudential policy, namely political interference. Using panel data from 80 countries over the period of 1990–2016, we uncover the electoral cycles in macroprudential policy. We show that a loosening in macroprudential policy becomes more likely in the pre-election year, especially in countries with lower institutional quality. There is no evidence for the reversal of such actions in the post-election year. We also find that capital account openness, the history of macroprudential policy actions and inflation matter in determining the strength of electoral cycles in macroprudential policy, in addition to institutional quality. The electoral cycles are found to be stronger in countries that are financially less open, that relied less on macroprudential policy in the past, and that have lower inflation.     

Why don’t households see the light?: Explaining the diffusion of compact fluorescent lamps

Starting in 2009 the EU ban on the sale of incandescent bulbs will force households to purchase energy-saving compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). The impact of the ban on consumers will depend on the nature of current barriers to the use of CFLs. This paper employs a Double-Hurdle model to identify distinct barriers to household consideration of CFLs and to the subsequent intensity of adoption using a large survey of German households. Barriers to CFL consideration are found to be low for all households, except those with very low incomes. Barriers to CFL consideration are, however, strongly linked to the residential characteristics of low-income households like small size and to the lack of household knowledge of energy consumption. CFLs use will increase after the ban mainly through a rise in the intensity of adoption. But the ban will be costly to consumers because the range of applications where households chose to employ CFLs is limited, particularly for high income households.     

CHINESE REGIONAL INEQUALITIES IN INCOME AND WELL-BEING

Dividing China into seven regions reveals rural income and consumption divergence for both 1980–2005 and 2000–05. But while real rural consumption growth averaged 7.7 percent over 1985–2005 in the eastern coastal region, it averaged 6.5 percent uniformly in the interior. In evaluating well-being, such rapid improvement in all regions arguably overshadows negative connotations of divergence. Twenty years of household survey data reveal dramatic increases in rural household savings, as rural consumption improved more slowly than income in some periods. This raises questions about the suitability of consumption as a basis for measuring well-being and its distribution. Increased savings appear to be transient, as some households save while others dissave to purchase durables and afford lumpy services like education and healthcare—supplies of which became more plentiful in the 1990s. The paper argues that more meaningful measures of regional disparities come from differences in regional poverty headcounts. It also suggests that higher regional inequality and accompanying interregional migration indicate that inequality plays an important positive role in inducing economic actors voluntarily to move to more productive locations and activities as a mechanism for ensuring sustainable improvements in individual well-being.     

Credit policies,macroeconomic stability and welfare: The case of China

Using a new Keynesian DSGE model with credit constraints, we study the impact on macroeconomic volatility of a macroprudential credit policy of the type implemented by the Central Bank of China. We find that the countercyclical credit policy plays a non-negligible role in stabilizing the real economy, and that this effect is distinctly more pronounced when credit conditions are looser. By means of a second-order approximation method, we show that the macroprudential credit policy can significantly boost welfare, benefiting the entrepreneurial sector more than the household sector. The results can yield insights for the institutional and policy setting of China and other emerging countries.     

ANNUITIZED ASSET ADEQUACY IN JAPAN: THE DEMAND FOR INDIVIDUAL PENSIONS

In this paper, I analyze the impact of social security wealth, retirement payments, and living expenses during retirement on people's retirement savings in general, and on their individual pension holdings in particular, using micro data from a 1996 Japanese household survey. I confirm a replacement effect of social security on saving for all types of households and on individual pensions for self‐employed households only. This suggests that the social security assets of self‐employed households are less than their optimal level of annuitized assets and that they would increase their demand for individual pensions if social security benefits were to be reduced.     

Fertility and Economic Growth: Do Immigrant Maids Play a Role?

A significant source of child-care services in East and South-East Asia are provided by immigrant maids. Using a modified version of the model used in Galor and Weil (1996), the present paper analyses the impact of this source of child-care services on women's labor market participation, fertility behavior and the household purchase of child-care services. The results show that a lower price for the maid service leads to a lower savings rate, a higher demand for children and less time being spent with children. We also find that hiring immigrant maids leads to lower economic growth in the long run.     

Assessing Macroprudential Policies: Case of South Korea*

In this paper, we develop methods for assessing the sensitivity of capital flows to global financial conditions. We use these methods to assess the impact of macroprudential policies introduced by South Korea in 2010. Relative to a comparison group of countries, we find that the sensitivity of capital flows into South Korea to global conditions decreased in the period following the introduction of macroprudential policies.     

How men matter: housework and self-provisioning among rural single-mother and married-couple families in Vermont,US

This paper compares married-couple households and single-mother households in the same rural area of the United States with respect to both housework and other efforts household members make to provide through their own labor goods and services they would otherwise have to purchase in the market. I argue that single mothers are disadvantaged in ways not fully captured with reference to income levels alone (on which the concept of the feminization of poverty usually depends). I also seek to study the strategies single mothers employ to ensure the completion of necessary tasks of housework and childcare, as well as those of home repair and self-provisioning. Finally, I examine some of the costs of these various strategies in order to create a fuller understanding of the lives of single mothers.