湿地旅游资源评价指标体系构建与应用

生态旅游是当前旅游的热点之一,而生态旅游系统中湿地旅游最为特殊。湿地是世界上不可缺少的生态系统组成部分,也是一种重要的旅游资源,科学、有效地对湿地旅游资源进行评价有助于促进湿地旅游地的可持续发展。但是目前对湿地旅游资源评价缺乏科学、合理、通用的评价指标体系,文章在参考国内外湿地旅游资源评价指标体系研究成果的基础上提出湿地旅游资源评价指标体系,构建4个层次31个评价因子,从旅游资源、区域条件及区位特征三个方面对湿地旅游的资源进行分析评价,并以盘锦市为例,对本指标体系进行了应用尝试。     

森林生态旅游可持续发展评价指标体系的构建

森林生态旅游可持续发展是当今学术界及旅游管理部门关注的热点话题,科学地制定森林生态旅游可持续发展评价指标体系对实施生态旅游可持续发展战略具有重要意义.本文述评了国内外有关生态旅游评价研究的成果.构建了森林生态旅游可持续发展的评价指标体系.     

广西大明山国家级自然保护区生态旅游资源及其评价

本文分析了大明山国家级自然保护区生态旅游资源的优势和特征,对保护区生态旅游资源进行定性描述评价、体验性美感质量评价、单因子的技术性评价、多要素组合的山地康复休疗条件适宜性评价及生物资源要素组合适宜性评价,最后还探讨了自然保护区旅游生态质量评价和旅游潜力综合性评价,为大明山生态旅游的合理开发与建设管理提供科学依据。     

对我国生态旅游发展问题的探讨

生态旅游是当前极具潜力的迅速发展的旅游形式。但是对于生态旅游的可持续发展仍然存在着相当大的错误认识。这和我们当前着力构建的和谐社会所要求人与自然和谐相处格格不入，本文简要分析了生态旅游和生态旅游资源的分类以度生态旅游资源的脆弱性和保护。     

养生旅游资源分类与评价指标体系研究

养生旅游是旅游业发展中的新业态。学术界对养生旅游的研究主要在开发层面,对于养生旅游资源本身的研究较为缺乏,尚未系统地阐明其分类标准和评价体系。根据养生旅游资源的属性、功能和相关国家标准,可对养生旅游资源类型进行划分,并运用专家打分法和层次分析法,确定评价因子及其权重,构建养生旅游资源评价指标体系,进而对养生旅游资源进行综合评价,以期为养生旅游开发决策提供依据。     

我国邮轮产业发展潜力测度研究

本文构建邮轮产业发展潜力评价指标体系,从港口支持条件、旅游资源潜力、旅游市场潜力、旅游企业运营能力、城市经济支撑能力、交通运输保障能力等六个方面进行评价分析。并以指标体系为基础,以我国八个发展邮轮产业重点城市为案例,以因子分析法为主线,进行我国城市发展邮轮产业潜力评价。依照评价结果,将研究对象分为三个潜力层级,并详细分析了各城市优劣势所在,为政府及有关部门决策提供了定量化的参考依据。     

梯田农业文化遗产旅游资源潜力评估研究

文章构建了梯田农业文化遗产旅游资源潜力评估体系和市场吸引力—承载力评估模型,并以湖南紫鹊界梯田为例,通过专家和游客问卷调查与评估打分得出其旅游资源潜力级别为:市场吸引力高,承载力中高,适合旅游开发。同时也发现其存在着资源较单一、资源内涵挖掘不够深入、农耕体验活动少、可进入性差、旅游服务配套设施不够完善、社区参与性不强、知名度有待提高等问题。本研究可为紫鹊界及其它梯田农业文化遗产的旅游开发提供参考。     

辽宁旅游循环经济评价指标体系构建初探

发展旅游循环经济是解决旅游与环境资源矛盾的有效途径,建立一个科学的旅游循环经济评价指标体系就可以判断旅游循环经济的发展水平,从而更好地对旅游循环经济的发展作出决策,以辽宁省为例,试构建了辽宁旅游循环经济指标评价体系,通过此体系对其目前发展情况进行测评,并提出建议及对策。     

中国地级及以上行政区旅游投资潜力测度与区域分异——基于Krugman地理本性论

基于Krugman"地理本性论"原理,构建了包含旅游资源禀赋、旅游区位与市场、商业基础条件、旅游政策四大要素的区域旅游投资潜力评价指标体系。在地理信息系统和地理计算模型支持下,分析了主要指标间的机理关系,计算了全国地级及以上行政区的观光、休闲和综合旅游投资潜力指数。研究发现:(1)观光和休闲投资潜力空间分布形态有明显差异。前者呈现相对破碎化、离散化的态势,而后者呈现更为明显的地域规律性,原因是优质观光景观的发育具有较大随机性,而休闲旅游受自然资源禀赋影响较大,在空间上具有较强连续性和自相关性。(2)旅游投资潜力空间分异显著。东部、中部、西部、东北逐次递减,五大城市群旅游投资潜力明显高于其他区域,且大部分城市群休闲投资潜力高于观光,预示着旅游产业发达地区的旅游活动正由观光转型为休闲。     

城市旅游生态文明建设和可持续发展研究——以新疆乌鲁木齐为例

随着我国城市化进程的不断深入,生态破坏和资源短缺问题逐渐成为城市可持续发展的瓶颈,为了使城市的可持续发展得到实现,城市必须加强生态文明建设。旅游生态文明的建设成为城市实现"生态文明"和可持续发展的重要手段,而城市旅游生态文明指标体系是对城市生态文明建设进行评价和实施的依据。构建了旅游生态文明评价指标体系,用于城市旅游生态文明系统的综合评估,并以乌鲁木齐市为例,进行了实证研究。将生态文明建设理念融入城市旅游发展实际中,为城市旅游生态文明建设和可持续发展的实现提供理论指导和实践建议。     

A THEORY OF MAN AS A CREATOR OF THE WORLD*

The present paper proposes a theory of man, wherein man constructs models of the world based on past experiences in social situations. The present theory considers experiences, or chunks of impressions, as primitives instead of an objective game, which is assumed to be given in the standard game theory. Agents construct models of the world based on direct and indirect experiences. Each model comprises a structural part and a factual part. The structural part is represented as a game, while the factual part is represented as a strategy profile of this game. In constructing a model, an agent might use certain axioms—for example coherence, according to which the model should be able to explain his or her own experiences; conformity to a solution concept; and minimality with respect to some simplicity measure. A few applications are presented to demonstrate how this theory works.     

PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

A TREATMENT OF ABSOLUTE INDICES OF POLARIZATION*

Absolute polarization indices remain unchanged under equal absolute augmentation in all incomes. This paper identifies the class of absolute polarization indices whose orderings of alternative income distributions agree with the rankings generated by nonintersecting absolute polarization curves. We explore the possibility of using the Kolm (1976) – Blackorby‐Donaldson (1980) ethical absolute inequality index in polarization measurement. We establish that although inequality and polarization are dissimilar concepts, different absolute inequality indices can be employed to design alternative absolute polarization indices. A numerical illustration is provided using Indian data and it is shown that inequality and polarization are different issues in income distribution analysis.     

大国货币崛起的中国道路：人民币孕育成长百年历程*

经历四十余年改革开放，中国经济迅速崛起，作为主权货币的人民币逐步迈向世界货币舞台。基于此，人民币如何走上与欧美主要货币比肩的大国货币道路便引起人们的广泛关注。本文试图就此谈些看法。本文认为，若要客观准确地分析和评判人民币迈向大国货币之路，必须着眼于历史逻辑与理论逻辑的统一视角。仅从理论逻辑看，英镑美元道路似乎是人民币迈向大国货币的必然选择，但若着眼于历史逻辑，此种选择的合理性则会大打折扣。历史地看，中国货币制度长期由超大规模经济与低值货币本位加以塑造而呈现出十分独特的格局，由此决定其具有更多服务于国内经济民生的特质，这与一些欧美国家货币动辄充当对外扩张与建立世界霸权的工具形成鲜明对照。人民币制度无疑受到中国货币传统的影响，特别是经历近代以降百余年来的民族危亡与自强图存，作为该制度的肇建者，中国共产党人深知币制独立与币值稳定之重要，因此自始至终以服务国内经济民生为要而缓图国际使用，结果出现经济规模与主权货币国际化的不对称格局。最终，问题就归结为如何客观认识这种不对称格局，也就是说，对于人民币成长为大国货币而言，这种格局是“悖论”还是“特色”？本文的结论是：人民币成为大国货币是中国经济崛起的结果而非前提，因此须在基本条件上合理安排迈向大国货币的次序，特别是要审慎把握国际使用的节奏，走出大国货币成长的中国道路。     

A MODEL OF OVERCONFIDENCE

People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Moderate overestimation of ability and overestimation of the precision of initial information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output (and utility); however, extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists find that moderate overconfidence is both pervasive and advantageous.     

中国城市化快速发展的机制研究

中国城市化进入快速发展阶段,经济全球化和经济转型深刻地影响到城市化机制。文章建立了不确定条件下农村剩余劳动力的城市化决策模型,解释了制度创新对城市化的作用模式。在对传统工业化与城市化之间数量关系进行计量分析的基础上,提出了城市化快速发展主要由第三产业推动的观点。并根据工业制成品的进出口差额,粗略估计了封闭条件下中国的工业产值,计算了国际贸易对城市化水平的贡献程度。研究表明,城市化快速发展更多依赖于国际贸易和制度创新。     

跨国公司与地方关系的研究综述

跨国公司与地方关系的相关研究脉络,主要呈现出两条主线:一条主线是"地方"内涵的发展,从传统理论对空间地理的忽略,到后来受关注,再到最近在产业集群相关研究中的兴起;另一条主线是全球与地方的关系演变,从二元对立到统合处理,从抽象的伞球与地方关系具体到企业与地方关系.当前,围绕"跨国公司与地方关系"的研究大致可分为两大类研究视角:一类着重从地方的角度去看全球化的作用与地方的优势,另一类是从全球化的经济体系去审视地方的角色.