Gender earnings inequality in the service and manufacturing industries in the U.S.

This paper compares earnings inequality between women and men in a growing sector of the U.S. economy – the service sector, and a shrinking sector – manufacturing. We examine the hypothesis that deindustrialization will reduce inequality, and find that the absolute magnitude of the gender earnings gap is, in fact, smaller in the service sector. Decomposition analysis is used to partition the gender earnings gap into three parts: (1) earnings differences due to differences in mean characteristics – such as education and experience; (2) earnings differences due to preferential treatment of men; and (3) earnings differences due to disadvantageous treatment of women. The latter two constitute estimates of gender discrimination. The results of this study suggest that, ceteris paribus, deirndustrialization will likely reduce the gender gap in hourly earnings. However, this will come at the cost of lower earnings for both males and females, with the drop in earnings being particularly large for males. While deindustrialization is predicted to reduce the absolute magnitude of male-female earnings inequality, evidence suggests that gender discrimination will persist – discrimination explains about 60 percent of the gender wage gap in both the service and the manufacturing sectors.     

Was deindustrialization in the UK inevitable? Some comments on the Rowthorn-Wells analysis

This paper starts by summarizing Rowthorn-Wells'analysis of deindustrialization and its links with trade. It then proceeds to give some critical comments on their specialization, maturity and failure theses. The main conclusion of the paper is that though the book is very interesting in its endeavour to link deindustrialization to economic development, it does not fully succeed in explaining the UK economic situation in the last two or three decades. The main problems of the book are seen to be its failure to fully integrate ‘negative deindustrialization’ in the theory of development, its passive treatment of the manufacturing sector and its focus on trade and balance of payments rather than industry and its structure.     

论产业结构低碳化及国际城市比较

低碳经济既是一种新的发展模式,又是一场新的国际经济政治游戏。文章借助国内数据证明了工业的碳排放强度大致是服务业的2.5～5倍,服务业比重每提高1个百分点,工业比重相应地每降低1个百分点,总体碳排放强度将平均下降0.8～1.6个百分点,这一过程可称之为产业结构低碳化。经过碳排放行业分布和就业结构的国际城市比较发现,我国在产业结构低碳化方面大大落后于世界先进水平,这使中国在低碳经济这一国际新游戏中处于不利境地。     

Strikes and deindustrialization in the European Community: 1970–86

Strike activity within the European Community was markedly lower in the 1980s compared with the levels experienced in the 1970s. Over the same period, deindustrialization proceeded apace. The findings of this article suggest that up to 20% of the reduction in work stoppages may simply have been due to the shrinkage of the manufacturing sector. Moreover, a concurrent finding is that strike-proneness within the expanding service industries did not fall in line with that of other areas of activity. These results suggest the need for a careful reappraisal of the meaningfulness of conventional macroeconomic strike models.     

部门间生产率差距、劳动力去工业化与结构性减速

基于中国劳动力就业结构出现过快和过早去工业化的迹象，本文从部门间生产率差距的视角，利用多部门一般均衡模型、数值模拟和计量实证分析方法研究发现：（1）理论上，当服务业劳动生产率增长慢于工业，部门间生产率差距将扩大，导致劳动力去工业化速率加快；且部门间生产率差距的存在使得劳动力去工业化对经济增长产生结构性减速效应。服务业部门生产率加快提升，部门间生产率差距将会缩小，从而减缓去工业化速率和降低结构性减速压力；工业部门生产率提升尽管会扩大部门间生产率差距从而加快劳动力去工业化，但在长期中起到均匀化经济增长速率的作用。（2）利用2001—2018年中国省级和城市级面板数据的计量实证分析发现，部门间生产率差距的存在导致劳动力去工业化的效应在全时段样本下显著，但劳动力去工业化对经济增长的结构性减速效应仅在2009—2018年区间样本下显著，表明近年来中国经济增长减速与部门间生产率差距及其导致的劳动力去工业化相关。（3）赶超成功与失败国家的经验比较也表明，工业与服务业部门劳动生产率的改善与协调是跨越中等收入陷阱以及跨越后实现持续赶超的关键。     

美国重振制造业及其对我国的启示

制造业是美国经济保持繁荣的重要力量,经历了起起伏伏的发展历程,20世纪80年代以来实行的"去工业化"发展道路,削弱了美国制造业竞争力。金融危机之后,美国通过一系列法案以刺激制造业发展,兴建制造业创新研究中心,希望以高新技术改造传统制造业,增加就业,推动美国经济走上可持续增长的繁荣之路。通过分析金融危机以来美国和旧金山湾区为重振制造业采取的各项措施和当前形势,对我国制造业发展提出以下建议:面向内需及亚洲市场,继续保持传统制造业的优势;加大先进制造领域投入,创建国家制造业创新中心;跟踪研究页岩气开采工艺和技术,谨慎大规模开发。     

Deindustrialization and Trade

This paper extends the Dornbusch–Fisher–Samuelson (1977) model to explain deindustrialization and trade; this extension follows Baumol's (1967) observation on the negative correlation between the size of the service sector and growth. It is shown that trade improves welfare through the exploitation of comparative advantages but accelerates the shift toward services, slowing down the rate of growth. Trade can decrease welfare if manufacturing activities with learning-by-doing move abroad. In this case, some experience is lost and all countries lose.     

Premature Deindustrialization and the Defeminization of Labor

There is growing evidence of two related global processes happening. The late industrializers are deindustrializing at earlier stages of development than their predecessors, and the global trends in the gender composition of manufacturing and industrial employment are evolving. What is less well known is how these two trends are related to one another. Starting from the premise that industrial upgrading has been observed to have a male bias, we test the hypothesis that premature deindustrialization is likely to amplify that bias. For the empirical test and simulation, we use an economy’s global competitive position as a proxy for the deindustrialization regime type. To get to this position, we bring together the work of Nicholas Kaldor, feminist scholarship, and structuralist critiques. The results for sixty-two countries, spanning the years from 1990 to 2013, support our hypothesis that premature deindustrialization is likely to amplify the male bias of industrial upgrading.     

Growth of business services: A supply‐side hypothesis

This paper aims to explain why and how the service sector may grow faster than manufacturing. It develops a two‐sector, closed‐economy model, having a manufacturing sector and a service sector. Accumulation of human capital serves as the basis of growth. The analysis focuses on business services, while household services are also considered. It is argued that differences in returns to scale between the two sectors and employment frictions in manufacturing explain why the growth rate of the service sector may be higher. The model also features that within the service sector the business services sub‐sector may grow faster than household services.     

去工业化与鄱阳湖生态经济区建设研究

去工业化主要指以就业份额和产值份额不断下降而体现的制造业的萎缩和转移,是工业化高度发达的产物。发达国家或地区的去工业化往往意味着发展中国家或地区的工业化。鄱阳湖生态经济区作为一个后发展中地区,国内外去工业化趋势下的低碳经济、新国际劳动分工和绿色消费为其提供了难得的机遇,但也蕴含着承接产业转移的经济基础薄弱、产业风险巨大以及市场失灵与政府干预两难处境等挑战,需要加大公共宣传、优化引资环境、制定适宜的产业政策,以推动鄱阳湖生态经济区建设。     

Transition in Importance of Service Sector in Indian Economy: 1968–69–1993℃94

The importance of service sector in terms of its share in national income/GDP has been growing progressively in Indian economy throughout the post independence period. The objective of this paper is to make an assessment of the importance of the service sector which accounts the value added originating from service sector in total value added produced, needed directly and indirectly to produce gross output in Indian economy during the period 1968–69 to 1993–94. For this purpose, an index of vertical integration has been constructed which provides a dimension-free measure of the multiplier of each industry on the value-added originating from the service sector to total value added. Empirical part of this study shows that Trade, Other services, Electricity, Railway Transport Services, Chemicals and Construction played a role of key sector in terms of importance of Service sector as input for their production throughout the study period of the Indian economy. They provided strong stimulus to the economy by inducing greater value addition to service sector. In general, services industries appear to be the highly growth- inducing sector in so far as it helps higher value addition to other industries.

     

去工业化及其在中国的适应性研究——基于结构失衡视角

去工业化是工业化进程中的一种经济结构失衡现象,体现在要素配置结构、产业结构、区域经济结构、价值链结构等方面,这种失衡给国民经济发展带来了严重后果。产业结构理论、产业转移理论、结构主义发展理论、极化理论等是研究去工业化问题的重要理论来源。基于结构失衡视角,中国不仅存在某种形式的整体性去工业化,也存在明显的区域性去工业化。在当前发达国家再工业化呼声日益高涨的国际背景下,对中国去工业化问题进行深入研究,无论是对防范未来的可能危机还是对优化经济结构、转变经济增长方式都具有重要的现实意义。     

The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector

This paper analyses the economic effects of the oil and gas sector (energy booms) on manufacturing output in two energy producing countries: Norway and the UK. In particular, I investigate whether there is evidence of a 'Dutch disease', that is whether energy booms have had adverse effects on manufactures. In addition to energy booms, three other types of structural disturbances are identified; demand, supply and oil price shocks. The different disturbances are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a vector autoregressive model. Overall, there is only weak evidence of a Dutch disease in the UK, whereas manufacturing output in Norway has actually benefited from energy discoveries and higher oil prices     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION TO SOUTH KOREA

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model and studies structural change in a small open economy with two tradable sectors, agriculture and manufacturing, and a non‐tradable sector, services. In addition to obtaining results for a falling employment share of agriculture and a rising share of services, we demonstrate analytically the hump‐shaped share of manufacturing by identifying two countervailing effects: the productivity effect and the Balassa–Samuelson effect. The first effect, arising from differential rates of productivity growth among sectors, increases the share of manufacturing; the second effect, together with low rates of substitution between products, enhances the service sector and eventually draws labour from the manufacturing sector. At the aggregate level, however, the economy maintains a constant rate of growth. We calibrate the model with data from South Korea and find that the calibration fits the country's historical path of structural change.     

Land and the transition from a dual to a modern economy

Tenurial contracts in agriculture can be an initial source of wealth accumulation for dynasties of poor, credit-constrained individuals. The income from such contracts can be invested in education of offspring, who then can find work in the formal manufacturing sector. This process allows the economy to develop into a modern economy with a large manufacturing sector. An excessive number of poor individuals competing for scarce land, however, drives up the rental price of land, which then slows the process of accumulation and forces the economy to converge to a less efficient dual equilibrium. In such cases, a policy of land redistribution coupled with a temporary education subsidy may be needed to push the economy to a modern equilibrium.     

THE CLASHING CULTURES OF MARKETING AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING

It has became fashionable to recommend ‘marketing’ to any public sector organization in financial difficulties or suffering from an image problem. Yet there are important tensions between the culture of marketing, derived mainly from Anglo-Saxon models of manufacturing management, and the ethos and practice of public service management. We build upon Senge's model of a learning organization to question whether the use of conventional marketing approaches can be an aid to the most ambitious forms of organizational learning. A new public marketing is proposed which locates the concepts and techniques of marketing strategy within a learning model which makes explicit the political values and processes of public sector agencies. Such an approach requires a major rethink in the approach to marketing currently found in the UK public sector.     

Premature deindustrialization

I document a significant deindustrialization trend in recent decades that goes considerably beyond the advanced, post-industrial economies. The hump-shaped relationship between industrialization (measured by employment or output shares) and incomes has shifted downwards and moved closer to the origin. This means countries are running out of industrialization opportunities sooner and at much lower levels of income compared to the experience of early industrializers. Asian countries and manufactures exporters have been largely insulated from those trends, while Latin American countries have been especially hard hit. Advanced economies have lost considerable employment (especially of the low-skill type), but they have done surprisingly well in terms of manufacturing output shares at constant prices. While these trends are not very recent, the evidence suggests both globalization and labor-saving technological progress in manufacturing have been behind these developments. The paper briefly considers some of the economic and political implications of these trends.     

Innovation and productivity in manufacturing and service firms in Catalonia: a regional approach

This article analyses the determinants of research and development (R&D) and the role of innovation on labour productivity in Catalan firms. Our empirical analysis found a considerable heterogeneity in firm performances between the manufacturing and service industries and between low- and high-tech industries. The frontiers that separate manufacturing and service industries are increasingly blurred. In Catalonia high-tech knowledge-intensive services (KIS) play a strategic role in promoting innovation in both manufacturing and service industries, and driving growth throughout the regional economy. Empirical results show new firms created during the period 2002–2004 that have a greater R&D intensity than incumbent firms (54.1% in high-tech manufacturing industries and 68.8% in high-tech KIS). Small and young firms in the high-tech KIS sector are very prone to carrying out R&D and they invest more in innovation projects. R&D expenditures, output innovation, investment in physical capital, market share and export have positive effects on labour productivity in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Firm size, on the other hand, has a positive effect on productivity in manufacturing industries but not in services.     

对我国服务业FDI影响因素的实证分析

在经济服务化的背景下,服务业已逐步取代制造业,成为世界外国直接投资结构中的主流.创造吸引国际服务业FDI的有利环境,从而实现对服务业国际产业转移的顺利承接对于促进我国服务业的进一步增长、结构优化升级具有着重要作用.针对我国服务业FDI主要的影响因素进行了实证分析,并给出了相应的政策性启示.     

去工业化、经济增长与区域协调发展——基于土地资源错配的视角

针对我国近年来的“去工业化”现象，本文通过280座城市的面板数据，以及城市地形和省级审批建设用地占比构造的工具变量，从土地资源错配视角考察了去工业化对经济增长和区域协调发展的影响。实证结果发现，在当前经济发展阶段工业化对经济增长仍然具有显著的积极影响，过快、过早地去工业化不利于保持经济持续增长和实现区域协调发展，而土地资源在地区间和部门间的双重错配是导致我国出现过早去工业化的重要原因。进一步的分析表明，较高的城镇化水平以及发达的生产性服务业有助于增强工业化对经济增长的推动效应。本文为新时期保持制造业比重基本稳定，推动我国经济持续稳定增长，推进区域协调发展以及促进土地资源优化配置提供了经验证据。