老年父母照料家庭与成年子女劳动供给——基于CFPS微观数据的分析

多代直系家庭成员之间紧密的社会经济联系是我国家庭文化的重要特征,因而老年人在家庭照料等方面具有重要的社会价值.文章利用2010年、2012年和2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据,构建面板模型并实证分析了老年父母的隔代照料及料理家务活动对子女劳动供给的影响.结果发现,老年父母的隔代照料显著提高了子女的劳动供给,其中男性劳动参与率提高了6.3％,女性提高了14.3％,并且女性的工作时间增加幅度远大于男性.此外,隔代照料对农村居民劳动参与率的影响大于城市居民,而对城市居民就业的影响主要体现在工作时间上,公共服务不均等以及就业能力和工作性质的差距是异质性产生的重要原因.文章从老年人影响青年人劳动力供给的角度,验证了老年人的社会价值,也从侧面说明了中国女性为何有条件更加“勤劳”.     

中国农村劳动力流动对儿童义务教育的影响——基于CFPS数据的经验研究

随着中国农村经济的发展和城市化速度的加快,大量农村劳动力流动到城市就业.父母劳动力流动对农村儿童义务教育的影响成为一个具有理论和现实意义的课题,也引起了政府和学术界的广泛关注.本文利用北京大学中国家庭动态跟踪调查的数据,使用多元回归的方法,就父母外出务工对处于义务教育阶段的子女教育质量的影响展开了经验研究.结果表明,父亲从事非农业工作会对子女的义务教育有正的影响,而母亲外出就业的影响并不显著,基于此,笔者提出了有针对性的政策建议.     

父代教育水平、代际传递与子代基础教育不平等

基于中国教育追踪调查数据,采用OLS和多元有序logistics回归分析方法,本文研究了教育代际传递在初等教育阶段的显著性及作用机制。本文研究发现：初中阶段存在显著的教育代际传递效应,父母受教育水平对子女学业表现具有显著影响。父母最高受教育年限每增加1年,子女平均成绩提高0.322分。其中,城市父母受教育水平对子女学业表现的影响强度大于农村;父亲受教育水平对子女学业表现的影响大于母亲;随着子女平均成绩的提高,父母受教育水平对子女平均成绩的影响强度趋于下降,表明学业表现欠佳的“后进生”受父母教育水平的影响更大。进一步的中介效应检验表明,父母教育水平通过影响教育期望和教育投入作用于子女学业表现。父母对子女的教育期望、子女自身教育期望和亲子互动都具有部分中介作用,中介效应占总效应比重分别是45.067%、43.329%和0.939%。基于2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据对机制的再检验再次证实中介效应的显著性。因此,要重视初等教育资源的合理配置,对普通家庭的孩子进行适度的政策倾斜;父母要注重家庭文化资本建设,既要提高对子女的教育期望,也要增加对子女的陪伴,担当起子女成长中的“重要他人”角色。     

义务教育费用减免与农村居民消费关系研究 ——基于CHNS数据的DID模型分析

本文运用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)微观住户数据,采用双重差分(DID)模型对农村居民消费受农村义务教育政策冲击所产生的效果进行经验研究.研究发现:农村义务教育费用减免政策对农村居民消费具有负向效应,主要表现在对低收入家庭消费的抑制作用上.这种负向效应更多地是由于农村低收入家庭增加了子女入学支出,在收入既定的条件下减少了消费支出.这说明要想提高农村居民的消费水平,绝非仅仅依靠减免农村义务教育费用一项政策可以改变的.     

技术冲击和劳动供给对经济波动的影响分析--基于可分劳动RBC模型的实证检验

文章根据国内外经济波动的不同特征,构建了用于研究中国经济波动的可分劳动RBC模型,并对改革开放以来的中国经济进行了实证检验,从供给角度考察技术冲击对中国经济波动的影响,并在RBC模型框架下分析了技术进步对中国劳动市场的影响。研究发现,一是在固定劳动和可分劳动RBC模型中,技术冲击可以解释中国经济波动的主要部分;二是可分劳动RBC模型的实证结果表明,劳动供给变动对经济波动的影响较小,技术进步对改革后的产出、居民消费和就业都产生了正向冲击效应。技术进步对就业增长效应较小,致使我国的劳动需求增长率明显小于劳动供给增长率,劳动市场供需严重不平衡,这也是导致就业波动较为平缓、失业问题日趋严峻的一个重要原因。     

引进国外解决就业难问题的工作分享方式

一、金融危机对就业带来的影响 金融危机的爆发有多种的原因，但是金融危机所带来的影响基本上是一致的。这次受美国金融危机的影响。全球就业环境也受到金融危机的巨大冲击，最突出的现象就是企业大规模的裁员。国际金融危机同样对中国的就业产生很大的冲击。大批农民工因企业裁员而返乡的现象是近十几年来罕见的。在我国，     

子女分工方式对农村老年人获得经济支持的影响研究

利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2009年在安徽省巢湖市进行的"安徽省老年人生活福利状况"抽样调查数据,在对当前农村老年人家庭子女给予父母经济支持分工方式分类的基础上,分析了子女不同分工方式对老年父母获得的经济支持的影响。相对于子女共同平均分担的分工方式,老年父母在子女不平均分担的分工方式下获得更多的经济支持;相对于只有儿子分担的分工方式,老年父母在有女儿参与分担的分工方式下获得更多的经济支持。     

目标牵引成长：父母设定高学业目标能提高子女人力资本吗

本文从一个崭新的视角——父母学业目标设定，探讨其在子女人力资本积累中的作用。利用2014年和2015年中国教育追踪面板数据，本文实证研究发现：父母设定高学业目标能显著提高子女的语数外学业表现。究其原因，这一结论能由父母改变资源分配决策和提高管教严格程度，以及使子女优化时间分配机制所解释。异质性分析表明，基准结论在父母近期设定高学业目标、父母受教育程度较高，以及子女年龄较大的样本中表现得更明显。本文的发现不仅丰富了父母行为决策影响子女人力资本积累研究，也为目标设定效果的文献做了有益的拓展。     

随机货币冲击下的中国经济波动研究——基于RBC模型

中国居民消费存在明显的现金先行约束.在真实经济周期(RBC)模型中通过现金先行约束引入货币冲击符合中国经济运行特征.笔者在真实经济周期理论框架内分析了外生货币冲击对中国经济波动产生的影响.研究表明,货币发行冲击主要影响消费、投资和通胀率的波动,而其他主要经济变量(产出、就业等)的波幅基本不变.     

国际金融危机背景下一些国家促进就业的做法及启示

2008年以来,国际金融危机对我国就业和劳动关系产生了一定冲击。为此,本文在分析国际金融危机对全球就业及劳工关系影响的基础上,对一些国家在促进就业方面采取的措施进行总结,以期为我国解决金融危机下的就业困境、建立和谐劳动关系提供借鉴。     

高校扩招背景下大学毕业生就业的经济学分析

本文尝试构建一个分割的劳动力市场模型,对我国高等院校扩招给大学毕业生、非大学毕业求业者、企业和社会在就业和工资等方面所造成的福利效应作一纯理论的分析.通过对模型中扩招前后均衡点的分析,我们发现,尽管高校扩招所带来的大学毕业生大量增加,从长期看为我国经济增长积聚了大量的人力资本,但就个人福利而言,投资于高等教育者其境况变坏,而没有上大学的人却境况变好.我们认为,要想方设法增加大学毕业生就业,使全社会潜在福利的增加变成现实的福利增长,需要进一步深化市场改革以拓宽市场规模,由此改善大学毕业生的就业状况并增加其收入.     

新疆大学生就业压力调查分析

自1999年高校实行扩招政策以来,大学毕业生人数不断增加,就业压力不断增大。本文借助新疆大学生调查资料,对新疆大学生就业压力的整体状况进行分析。分析得出：大学生综合素质不均、学校教学质量有待提高、社会就业条件较差等是造成目前新疆大学生就业压力增大的原因,今后应采取提高教学质量、加快第三产业发展、畅通就业输送渠道等措施来减轻新疆大学生就业压力,提高大学生对工作、生活的满意度。     

对影响我国大学生创业倾向的因素分析

大学生自主创业在20世纪末的世界各国已经成为一种趋势。近年来,在我国由于社会竞争的日益加剧和就业形势的日益严峻,尤其是20世纪90年代大学扩招的规模日益加大,创业正在成为越来越多的大学生在被动就业之外的另一项重要选择。大学生的创业倾向越来越明显,这说明中市场经济发展的日益成熟和大学生就业理念的转变。立足于对培养大学生创业倾向的建立以及对其影响因素的分析,探讨了大学生个体因素及家庭、学校、政府等各种不同的外部环境对当代大学生创业倾向的影响,力求通过对其提出合理化建议,以培养和促进大学生创业倾向的建立和不断发展。     

The effect of private high school education on the college trajectory

We use the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS) to estimate the effect of private secondary schooling on the average college trajectory of a student in the United States, examining college enrollment and degree attainment across the private and public sectors. We provide the first estimates of the effect of private schooling on college degree attainment using the most recent NELS survey. To account for potential non-random selection we exploit the variation in the grade spans of the students’ middle schools. Results indicate that private schooling has a significant, positive effect on college enrollment and degree attainment. The effect on college enrollment diminishes with time, suggesting that private schools influence degree attainment by getting students to college sooner.     

Can conditional cash transfer programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks?

Income shocks on poor households are known to induce parents to take their children out of school and send them to work when other risk-coping instruments are insufficient. State dependence in school attendance further implies that these responses to short-run shocks have long-term consequences on children's human capital development. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, where the condition is on school attendance, have been shown to be effective in increasing educational achievements and reducing child work. We ask the question here of whether or not children who benefit from conditional transfers are protected from the impacts of shocks on school enrollment and work. We develop a model of a household's decision regarding child school and work under conditions of a school re-entry cost, conditional transfers, and exposure to shocks. We take model predictions to the data using a panel from Mexico's Progresa experience with randomized treatment. Results show that there is strong state dependence in school enrollment. We find that the conditional transfers helped protect enrollment, but did not refrain parents from increasing child work in response to shocks. These results reveal that CCT programs can provide an additional benefit to recipients in acting as safety nets for the schooling of the poor.     

Effects of Economic Shocks on Children's Employment and Schooling in Brazil

This paper uses longitudinal employment survey data to analyze the impact of household economic shocks on the schooling and employment transitions of young people in metropolitan Brazil. The paper uses data on over 100,000 children ages 10-16 from Brazil's Monthly Employment Survey (PME) from 1982 to 1999. Taking advantage of the rotating panels in the PME, we compare households in which the male household head becomes unemployed during a four-month period with households in which the head is continuously employed. Probit regressions indicate that an unemployment shock significantly increases the probability that a child enters the labor force, drops out of school, and fails to advance in school. The effects can be large, implying increases of as much as 50% in the probability of entering employment for 16-year-old girls. In contrast, shocks occurring after the school year do not have significant effects, suggesting that these results are not due to unobserved characteristics of households that experience unemployment shocks. The results suggest that some households are not able to absorb short-run economic shocks, with negative consequences for children.     

高校扩招引发教育信号贬值的机理分析

本文运用劳动市场信号发送理论,分析我国高校扩招引发的教育信号贬值的内在机理.扩招降低了进入大学的学习成本,导致了教育信号的过度投资及分离均衡的教育水平提高(即就业门槛提高),文凭的信号作用贬值.扩招后不同群体的信号投资方式和境遇不同,大学生的信号投资激励增强,而高中生缺乏信号分离自己.信号投资的一个重要特点是,通过雇主与雇员的相互博弈过程会产生自增强效应.如果高校不断扩招,会导致信号投资的不断攀升,形成信号投资泡沫.     

The relative importance of demand and supply shocks some international evidence

In this paper the contribution of demand and supply shocks of the fluctuation of output and employment is analyzed using quarterly data for four countries (USA, UK, FRG and Switzerland) covering the period 1966 to 1988 in a long run restricted VAR framework for employment, output, the interest rate and inflation. For the USA output and employment fluctuations seem to be dominated by supply shocks in theshort and long run, whereas interest and price level variations are dominated by demand shocks. The result obtained with German and Swiss data are, however, different with two respects: The contribution of demand shocks to output and employment fluctuations are substantial up to a time horizon of eight quarters and price level variations, are at least in the short run, dominated by supply disturbances. Finally, the analysis of the UK data shows the US pattern of results for employment and the price level, but demand shocks are important for output up to four quarters and interest rate movements are dominated by supply shocks.     

What are the determinants of hiring? The importance of product market demand and search frictions

In this article, we study the importance of product market demand and search frictions for hiring. We use a search-matching model with imperfect competition in the product market to derive an equation for total hiring in a local labour market, and estimate it on Swedish panel data. If product markets are imperfectly competitive, product demand shocks should have a direct effect on employment for given levels of prices and wages. Our main finding is that product demand has such a direct effect on hiring. This highlights the importance of taking imperfect competition in the product market into account in studies of employment dynamics and hiring. We also find that, for given levels of prices, wages, and product demand, the number of unemployed workers in a local labour market has a positive effect on hiring, suggesting that search frictions matter. Quantitatively, product demand shocks seem to be more important for understanding the variation in hiring than shocks to the number of unemployed workers.     

Technology shocks around the world

This article investigates the effects of a permanent technology shock on labor input in the major seven developed countries. The recent empirical literature which uses Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) with long-run restrictions has argued that technology shocks lead to a persistent and significant decline in employment in most of the G7 countries. We claim that the international transmission of shocks prevents the use of existing SVAR models, but also suggests alternative specifications to properly uncover their effects. We show in a quantitative two-country model that a measure of labor productivity aggregated across countries is more immune to persistent, if not permanent, shocks and allows to accurately identify the responses of the labor input to a technology shock. Using labor productivity at the G7 aggregate level, we find that the response of employment changes critically in most of the major seven developed countries.