山西经济增长的稳定性分析

经济增长的稳定性是评价经济增长质量的一个重要方面。文章对经济增长率进行了自相关系数检验 ,参照检验结论划分了经济增长率的波动周期 ,对比分析了各周期经济增长的稳定性 ,并对山西经济波动与投资波动的关系进行了定量分析 ,针对分析结论提出了提高山西经济增长稳定性的政策建议。     

中国经济波动的货币信贷解析

从1978年改革开放到2003年，25年中我国国内生产总值按照可比的价格计算几乎增长了10倍，平均经济增长率高达9．04％。然而我们也应该注意到在高速的经济增长后面，是剧烈的经济波动。国外学一般以经济波动标准差来衡量一个经济的稳定性，如果按照这个标准，改革开放以来的经济GDP偏差的标准差为5．01％，而同期美国的这个指标为1．66％，     

中国的实际经济周期与税收政策效应

本文构建了财政税收的实际经济周期(RBC)模型,实证研究了中国宏观经济波动的周期特征及税收政策的经济效应。研究发现:(1)引入财政收支冲击的RBC模型能够解释70%以上中国经济波动的特征事实,政府支出冲击加剧中国实体经济波动,而税收冲击对经济波动的影响不显著。(2)降低劳动收入和资本收入的税率都能促进经济增长和带动资本和劳动的供给增加,降低劳动收入税率有利于促进居民消费增长,降低资本收入税率则起到抑制作用,调整劳动收入税率的政策效果更强。(3)资本收入税率与社会福利呈正相关和非对称性,劳动收入税率与社会福利呈负相关和非对称性,技术冲击和财政冲击的共同作用使得结构性税收调整政策的福利效应具有非对称性,两种税率的同向变动对社会福利具有放大作用,两者的反向变动对社会福利具有削弱作用。     

消费与投资对经济增长的影响

改革开放以来,我国消费增长率、投资增长率变动不同程度的影响着我国经济增长,并且这种关系是动态的,而不是静止的。为探讨其动态关联关系,运用可变参数模型分析消费增长率、投资增长率对经济增长的动态影响,并结合实证分析结果对今后经济运行提出合理化建议。     

稳态通货膨胀下经济增长率的估计

本文从产品市场价格变动出发,解释了经济增长影响通货膨胀的原因,并讨论了稳定通货膨胀的经济增长率的概念。同时,利用季度数据从实证的角度分析了过去1 4年中国经济增长与通货膨胀之间的变动情况,估计出2 0世纪90年代以来中国“稳定通货膨胀的经济增长率”(SIRG ,SteadyInflationRateofEconomicGrowth)大致维持在9.8%左右     

中国经济能够实现持续增长吗?

为了证实我国经济增长的可持续性,文章以内生增长理论中生产性产品多样性模型为基础进行经济核算,提出了衡量TFP增长率变动趋势的三个命题。结合这三个命题,文章分别用技术吸收能力、研发支出/人均产出、研发支出/人均资本、投入到研发部门的劳动力数量以及劳动力份额作为TFP增长率的衡量指标,对近年来我国的TFP增长率进行了实证分析。结果发现,近年来我国的TFP增长率呈现出逐年攀升的势头。这表明我国经济具有持续的动态改进的力量。     

资本在产业间配置扭曲的度量

文章从资本配置角度出发,通过研究资本在产业间配置扭曲变动趋势,揭示资本在产业间配置扭曲变动规律,再结合日本和韩国转折期后产业结构变动规律,揭示资本配置改善对潜在经济增长率提升的空间大小。尽管我国存在着经济发展差异的因素,但从国际经验来看,通过资本在三大产业间配置效率改进来推动经济增长的空间已经不大,资本配置效率改善对提高我国潜在经济增长率影响不大。     

税率、公共支出政策对经济增长的影响分析

本文基于标准的新古典增长理论框架,生产函数采用柯布—道格拉斯形式,效用函数则是在Hendricks与Baier和Glomm所使用的效用函数基础上改进而来,数理模型的推导,则进一步放宽了Baier和Glomm推导运动方程时劳动供给 (或休闲) 不变弹性的前提条件,从而在劳动供给 (或休闲) 具有可变弹性的条件下推导得到关于经济增长率的运动方程,分别在两种情况下通过数值模拟分析税率及公共支出政策对经济增长率的影响.分析表明,在闲暇弹性恒定时,消费税率与经济增长率呈正向关系,而个人所得税率和资本收益税率与经济增长率呈反向关系,政府公共支出—税收比的变化对经济增长率的影响特征也很鲜明,政府生产性公共投资—税收比与经济增长率呈正向关系,而政府服务性公共支出—税收比变化对经济增长率几乎没有影响;在闲暇弹性可变时,不同的闲暇弹性参数情况下税收及公共支出政策对经济增长率的影响则更加丰富多彩.最后,基于分析结果提出相关政策建议.     

中国区域经济增长与税收收入增长研究

全国、东部、中部、西部地区的税收些入与GDP的总量、增量，以及宏观税负与GDP增长率之间虽然总量上的相关性都很强，但是增量相关性却很弱，影响税收收入增量变化的其他因素占比较大的份额。中国东部经济增长率普遍快于中西部地区，但税收收入增长率却正好相反，中西部地区快于东部地区，地区经济增长与税收收入增长之间是非同步的，或者说是逆向变动的。这是由于中西部地区的产业结构不合理，所有制结构调整滞后等原因所造成的。     

人口转变时期的经济增长与仿真

文章建立模型探讨人口转变时期人口变动对经济增长的影响。文章利用由Compertz函数的导函数衍生出的单峰函数模拟人口转变时期的人口生育率及人口参与率的变化过程。将具有人口转变时期人口变动生育率与劳动力参与率变函数引入经典的索洛模型,得到一个非自治的微分方程。该微分方程的解是渐近稳定的。文中利用数值仿真展现人口转变时期的人口变动与劳动力参与率变化对经济增长的影响。最后,通过比较常值人口增长率下人口增长与Logistic人口增长方式对经济增长的影响来探讨产生"人口红利"的原因及"人口机会窗口"的大小。     

Corporation tax revenue growth in the UK: A microsimulation analysis

This paper examines the built-in flexibility properties — as measured by the elasticity of revenue with respect to profits — of the UK corporation tax system. Emphasis is placed on determining some of the major influences on the extent to which total corporation tax revenue changes when profits change over the economic cycle. A microsimulation model, CorpSim, is constructed and used to obtain numerical results. In the model, corporations use group relief, capital allowances and losses in a tax-minimising manner. The growth of aggregate corporation tax revenue in practice in the UK appears to be highly volatile in relation to the growth of profits. High volatility in revenue elasticities is found to be especially associated with economic downturns. In mild economic downturns, corporation tax revenue elasticities may rise (because tax growth falls less than profit growth), but in more severe downturns, large but temporary decreases in revenue elasticities (and even negative elasticities) can be expected.     

Fiscal policies, environmental pollution and economic growth

This paper develops a model of endogenous economic growth with special consideration to the role of productive public expenditure and environmental pollution; and analyses the properties of optimal fiscal policy in the steady state growth equilibrium. We consider the level of consumption as the source of pollution. Government allocates its tax revenue between pollution abatement expenditure and productive public expenditure. Optimum ratio of productive public expenditure to national income is equal to the competitive output share of the public input, when productive public expenditure is depicted as tax revenue minus abatement expenditure. However, the proportional income tax rate exceeds the competitive output share of the public input. There is no conflict between the social welfare maximizing solution and the growth rate maximizing solution in the steady state growth equilibrium. The unique steady state growth equilibrium appears to be a saddle-point when the growth rate is above a critical level and the steady state equilibrium growth rate in the market economy is not necessarily lower than the socially efficient growth rate.     

燃油税经济效应的省际差异探析

现阶段我国开征燃油税存在的主要障碍是省际利益分割以及非车用油税收返还机制的构建.基于各省经济发展水平的差异,现有交通规费的规模和用油规模对各省经济发展的影响程度有所不同:部分省份的关联产品价格上升.资本要素流出.竞争力受到一定影响,特别是中等经济发展水平省份所受的影响较大.因此,根据各省经济水平,适当调整税负率结构,有助于提高社会福利整体水平,促进欠发达地区发展;在强要素替代弹性和商品替代弹性环境中开征燃油税更有助于资本收益增加和增强消费者选择优势.     

Public investment,taxation, and long-run output in economies with multi-level governments

This paper examines the dynamic effects of taxation and investment on the steady state output level of an economy. A simple neoclassical growth model with different tiers of government is developed. The initial focus is on governments that aim to maximise their citizens' welfare and economic performance by providing consumption goods for private consumption and public capital for private production. It is shown that a long-run per capita output maximising tax rate can be derived and that there also exists an optimal degree of fiscal decentralisation. The analysis then extends to the case where governments attempt instead to maximise their own tax revenue to fund expenditures which do not contribute to the utility of their citizens. Three different cases of taxation arrangement are considered: tax competition, tax sharing, and tax coordination. The modeling shows that intensifying tax competition will lead to an increase in the aggregate tax rate as compared to the cases of sharing and coordination amongst governments. These tax rates are both higher than the long-run per capita output maximising rate that was implied under the welfare maximising government scenario.     

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe: money demand,seigniorage and aid shocks

Zimbabwe experienced record hyperinflation of 80 billion per cent per month in 2008. This article uses new data from Zimbabwe to investigate money demand under hyperinflation using an autoregressive distributed-lag model for the period 1980–2008. The results produce plausible convergence rates and long-run elasticities, indicating that real-money balances are cointegrated with the inflation rate and signifying an equilibrium relationship between the two series. Evidence is also presented suggesting prices were driven by increases in the money supply rather than by changes in price setting behaviour. The article uses the estimated elasticity on the inflation variable to calculate the maximum level of seigniorage revenue that could be raised in the economy. Actual seigniorage levels increased dramatically after 2000, with inflation eventually exceeding the rate required to maximize this revenue stream. This is discussed in relation to international financing constraints and the collapse of the domestic tax base.     

Growth effects of a revenue-neutral environmental tax reform

This paper analyzes tax-policy measures within a two-sector endogenously-growing economy with elastic labor supply. Pollution is either modeled as a side product of physical capital used as a production factor in the final-good sector or as a side product of production. The framework allows us to analyze the consequences of isolated tax changes or of a revenue-neutral environmental tax reform for economic growth. Although pollution does not directly affect production processes, it can be shown that a higher pollution tax as well as a revenue-neutral environmental tax reform boost economic growth, whereas a tax on capital, consumption, or labor reduces the long-term growth rate of the economy.     

The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Sustaining Growth With Stability in India*

The performance of the Indian economy in recent years has attracted increasing international interest. This paper focuses on the role of fiscal and monetary policies in the evolution of the Indian economy over the years, with particular attention being given to the reforms undertaken in these policies since the early 1990s. The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies has been crucial in the sequencing of the economic reform process carried out since the early 1990s. Monetary policy aims to maintain a judicious balance between price stability and economic growth. With the opening up of the Indian economy and the spread of financial sector reforms aimed at functional autonomy, prudential strengthening, operational efficiency, and competitiveness of banks, considerations of financial stability have assumed greater importance in recent years alongside the increasing openness of the Indian economy. The biggest challenge facing the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in India is to continue the accelerated growth process while maintaining price and financial stability. Therefore, the self‐imposed rule‐based fiscal correction at both the national and subnational levels has to be consolidated and carried forward. The existence of a high level of fiscal deficit also contributes to the persistence of an interest rate differential with the rest of the world, which then also constrains progress toward full capital account convertibility. The success achieved in revenue buoyancy through tax rationalization and compliance has to be strengthened further.     

Public capital,deficit financing,and economic growth in a stochastic economy

This paper examines the relationship among deficit-financing fiscal policy, risk and economic growth in a stochastic endogenous growth model with private and public capital. We show that there are positive balanced-growth rate and a debt-to-GDP ratio that depend on deep parameters such as the income tax rate and the standard deviation of the growth rate of private and public capital. Investment and fiscal shocks influence the mean and variance of the growth rate and the debt dependency rate through portfolio changes and capital accumulation. In particular, an increase in the risk of private investment destabilizes the economy and reduces the mean growth rate if the portfolio change is drastic, and this increase in risk increases the debt-to-GDP ratio. In contrast, an increase in the income tax rate stabilizes the economy, increases the mean growth rate, and has a positive or negative effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio according to the ratio of public to private capital if the income tax rate is sufficiently small.     

The effects of economic conditions and tax structures on state tax revenue flow

Tax portfolio literature has focused on deriving the optimal composition of the tax structure for a particular state. However, tax revenue flow is influenced by both tax structure and economic conditions which are unique for each state. Therefore, the literature has been unable to generalize the characteristics of optimal tax structures. This paper examines the contribution of a state's economic condition, as well as the tax structure, to the growth and variability of tax revenue flow. In addition, the optimal tax portfolio is studied for changes in revenue growth targets and economic conditions.