经济开放与中国地区城乡收入差距——基于中国省级动态面板数据的研究

本文基于劳动、资本和全要素生产率,利用2001～2011年的省际面板数据研究经济开放对我国地区间城乡收入差距的影响,结果表明对外贸易和外商直接投资在不考虑劳动力流动的条件下对城乡收入差距有显著影响,人力资本、资本和全要素生产率在进出口中对收入差距影响不同,S-S理论在中国具有一定的适用性.     

偏向性技术进步与海洋经济绿色全要素生产率研究

本文利用方向性距离函数与 Malmquist-Luenberger （ML）指数,构建了海洋经济绿色全要素生产率测度及技术进步要素偏向判别模型。以 2006-2016年海洋经济投入产出相关数据为基础,系统地分析了不同时期我国海洋经济绿色增长的差异。研究显示：第一,从全国来看,我国海洋经济绿色全要素生产率呈现上升趋势。然而在资源环境约束下,海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的增长率呈现出先降后升的趋势。第二, 从地区视角分析,技术进步是11个沿海地区海洋经济绿色生产率增长的主要驱动因素,且技术规模的变化影响最为显著。第三,就技术进步的偏向性角度而言,海洋经济整体上呈现出海洋劳动与资源的依赖性特征,但是大部分沿海地区的海洋经济呈现出节约资本,使用劳动和资源的特征,证明我国节能环保政策初显成效。     

西部地区国有企业应尽快进入国际资本市场

在我国实行改革开放政策．进行社会主义市场经济体制建设的前期阶段，沿海地区在经济上取得了巨大的成功，但由于众所周知的诸多原因，西部地区较之于沿海经济发达地区却相对地更加落后了。西部地区的企业，尤其是国有企业在体制、思想观念的转变，以及具体参与国际市场竞争、产品进入国际市场方面都远远不及沿海地区的企业。如何缩小东西部地区的差距，使西部地区的国有企业尽快摆脱困境，拉动西部地区经济的稳步、整体增长，西部地区的国有企业必须利用西部大开发的有利政策，以及我国加入 ＷＴＯ后的有利的融资环境，尽快进入国际资本市…     

收敛还是发散?——中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述

本文考察了 1 980— 2 0 0 1年间中国地区经济差距的演变趋势 ,并对地区差距的形成渊源、未来发展战略的相关文献做了综述 ,最后提出了相应的政策建议。基尼系数的分解结果表明 ,中国地区经济的总体差距在 2 0世纪 80年代有所下降 ,但在 90年代却呈上升趋势 ,地区经济的总体差距主要来自沿海和内陆地区的差距 ,在各地区内部不存在所谓的俱乐部收敛。经济、地理、历史等多种因素使沿海地区处在了比较高的发展起点上 ,地区发展战略、全球化、经济自由化 ,要素市场的扭曲相互交织 ,对地区差距的形成产生了重要的影响。地区差距的缩小是一个长期任务。中央政府必须采取有效措施引导各地区推行区域经济协调发展战略     

基于社会机会函数的中国沿海地区包容性增长研究

包容性增长是确保所有人公平享有社会机会的一种经济增长方式。基于社会机会函数,采用机会曲线、机会指数和机会公平指数,分别从省级和市级层面测度中国沿海11省市2000—2014年的财政、教育、医疗、就业和生态机会,并给各项机会赋权得出包容性指数,结果显示:从机会的包容性来看,沿海地区财政机会在市域及省域之间均有较大差距;教育机会减少的同时教育机会包容性呈现逐渐低水平化趋势;医疗机会增长较快,具有良好的包容性趋势;就业机会相对稳定;生态机会趋于平等。从机会的地区性来看,沿海地区包容性指数整体水平在提高,江苏省呈全面均衡的包容性状态,但沿海地区整体而言未实现包容性增长。最后文章对政府如何实现沿海地区的包容性增长及反贫困提出了相关政策建议。     

基于规模报酬可变的要素集聚与区域生产率增长比较研究

笔者研究了我国地区要素集聚以及由此导致的地区间全要素生产率的差异.通过计算各省就业密度和就业集中度指数发现,在我国的确存在地区劳动力集聚的情况.通过计算各地区的劳均资本存量的绝对差距指数和相对差距指数以及运用马尔可夫转换矩阵的分析,发现我国资本存量在省际间具有明显的两极化趋势.根据面板数据模型估算的结果发现不同地区要素集聚的规模弹性效应差异很大,并且中、西部地区的规模弹性效应对全要素生产率增长的贡献高于东部地区,表明东部地区已经出现要素集聚过度的特征.     

沿海地区外向型经济的溢出效应与区域收入差距

现有区域收入差距的研究主要关注不同国家或一国不同区域在全球化过程中受惠程度的差异,一般不涉及区域发展之间的相互影响机制,不适合作为评价一国对外开放与区域收入差距关系的理论依据。本文从区域之间相互作用的机制出发,分析认为中国沿海地区外向型经济的溢出效应缩小了沿海与内陆地区的收入差距。因此,继续提高沿海地区的对外开放水平,促进沿海外向型经济对内陆地区的溢出效应,是区域和谐发展的重要途径。     

我国FDI区域分布的区位条件及其地理溢出程度的经验研究

依据企业选址理论,运用空间计量模型对我国29个省FDI的区域分布的区位条件进行了经验研究。一方面证明了各地区的经济总量、劳动成本、市场化水平、累积的FDI和开放程度等区位条件是决定FDI区域分布的主要因素,而基础设施和沿海地区哑变量的作用却不显著。另一方面证实了中国FDI区域分布的空间依存性的存在,并对我国FDI省际区域地理溢出的程度进行了估计;最后根据研究结论,提出了有关各地区,特别是广大中西部地区吸引更多FDI的政策建议。     

海洋环境规制、海洋科技创新与海洋经济绿色全要素生产率——基于DEA-Malmquist指数与PVAR模型分析

通过构建海洋环境规制、科技创新综合指数,运用DEA-Malmquist指数测算得到2006—2015年中国11个沿海地区(除港澳台外)海洋经济绿色全要素生产率,通过PVAR模型,考虑海洋经济期望与非期望产出,探讨海洋环境规制、海洋科技创新与海洋经济绿色全要素生产率之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:我国沿海地区间海洋经济绿色全要素生产率存在区域异质性,全国沿海地区宏微观层面存在"强"波特假说,具有时滞性,长江流域沿海地区只存在"弱"波特假说,就我国整体沿海地区而言,需要极大发挥政府引导作用,加强沿海区域间海洋环境规制强度与海洋科技创新协调度,进一步完善海洋保护税,促进海洋经济绿色全要素生产率,实现海洋经济高质量发展。     

我国吸引外资地区倾斜政策的障碍及对策

自改革开放以来,为吸引外商来华投资,我国政府制订了各种以地区倾斜政策为主导的优惠政策,这些在具体实施上偏重于地区倾斜的优惠政策在吸引外商直接投资中起了很大的作用,不仅使沿海地区有效地利用了港、澳、台资等,而且也带动了沿海地区经济和出口的发展。但是,地区倾斜政策在实施过程中也带来了一些副作用,主要表现在: 1.导致资金流向单一化。由于沿海地区享有优于内地的税收优惠政策、较多的进出口优惠政策等,大量的内地资金通过参股、增股等形式流向沿海并投资于一些急功近利的项目,而内地的基础设施本来就处于“饥渴”的状态,“资金沿海飞”加剧了内地基础设施的“瓶颈”现象;另一方面,内地为了抑制更多的资金流出,纷纷提高利率并发行高息债券,其结果造成了金融混乱。     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.     

Decentralization,social capital,and regional growth: The case of the Italian North-South divide

This paper aims to show how a region's constant level of social capital may have a very different impact on its economic growth depending on whether the central or the local level of government is responsible for regional policy.Our case study is the economic performance of Northern and Southern Italy in the post-World War II period, when a long phase of regional convergence came to a sudden halt in the early 1970s. We focus on the economic effects of the 1970s institutional reforms on government decentralization and wage bargaining. Our main hypothesis is that decentralization allocates the provision of public capital to institutions, the local ones, more exposed to a territory's social capital. Since social capital is lower in the Southern regions, decentralization made their developmental policies less effective from 1970 onwards, and regional inequality increased.We build an endogenous growth model augmented to include the interaction between social capital and public investment as well as the reform of the Italian labour market. We calibrate our model using data of the Italian regions for 1951–71. Our quantitative results indicate that decentralization triggered the influence of local social capital on growth and played a central role in halting the convergence path of the low-social-capital regions.     

中国科技企业孵化器绩效收敛性与时空特征研究

从规模效率、资本投入和社会贡献3个维度选取12个指标构建科技企业孵化器绩效评价指标体系，测度中国内地2007-2017年28个省份国家级科技企业孵化器绩效综合指数，运用多种模型对其动态演进、区域差异、空间相关性和收敛性等进行全面分析。结果发现，样本期内中国国家级科技企业孵化器绩效综合指数年均增长率高达9.43%，但从低水平跃迁至高水平难度较大，其概率介于20.90%~28.77%间，区域差异总体呈先上升后下降的“倒U型”趋势，各省科技企业孵化器绩效存在较为稳定的空间正相关关系，全国及东、中、西部地区科技企业孵化器绩效综合指数均不存在σ收敛，但存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛。最后，提出提升孵化器绩效水平、缩小各省孵化器发展差距的政策建议。     

技术进步的“体现观”与技术收敛测度指标构建

技术进步在经济增长与区域经济协调发展中的动力作用一直是人们关注的话题。区域间技术收敛是实现区域间经济收敛的必要条件。文章从经济增长理论中技术进步的分类出发,剖析了外生与内生、体现式与非体现式、资本偏向和劳动偏向等概念之间的关系,进一步给出了技术收敛的测度指标体系。文章认为,当前关于技术内生和外生的研究并没有与技术进步的"体现观"结合起来。新古典增长理论中所指的技术进步主要是非体现式的技术进步。内生增长理论中的体现式技术进步主要是体现在资本或劳动力中的技术进步。所以,技术收敛的分析应该在经济收敛分析方法的基础上,充分考虑体现在资本和劳动力中的技术和没有体现在要素中的技术,建立相应的测度指标体系。这种测度技术收敛的方法与一般性的技术收敛测度相比具有明显的优点,对相关的产业技术政策、人力资本流动政策以及产业转移等政策的制定具有重要的指导意义。     

The effects of the GSTP on trade flow: mission accomplished?

This paper investigates whether the Global System of Trade Preferences among developing countries (GSTP) achieves its intent to increase the trade of capital goods between member countries. For this purpose, trade data disaggregated by the degree of commodity differentiation and various GSTP regional dummies are employed in a gravity equation. Estimation results say that the value of trade between GSTP member countries has increased significantly since the formation of the GSTP in 1989, and the trade of differentiated commodities has increased remarkably compared with other commodities. Therefore, it can be asserted that the mission of the GSTP has been accomplished successfully.     

Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth

In this paper economic growth is interpreted as a sequence of transitions between distinct growth regimes that countries visit with different frequencies. Countries featuring similar growth dynamics are endogenously grouped into three different clusters. The first cluster comprises successful countries that are characterized by lengthy periods of high or very high growth. Moderately successful countries in the second cluster experience both periods of reasonable growth and periods of stagnation, whereas failing countries in the third cluster suffer from highly volatile growth rates with frequent episodes of crisis. Successful countries are characterized by better initial conditions, policies and institutions compared to the other countries. Neither initial conditions nor institutions distinguish moderately successful from failing countries; what makes them different is policy in the form of investments into infrastructure and human capital, trade liberalization and limited policy volatility.     

Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal

The aim of this study is to investigate whether openness, export shares or trade balances affect regional growth in Portugal. Human capital is also considered as a conditional factor to growth, expressed by the rate of success in high school education. Thus, we analyse whether the combination of international trade and human capital is relevant to explain regional growth in Portugal and how it affects the convergence process between regions. In the empirical analysis, interaction terms are introduced to explore the existence of different performances between regions of the Littoral and the Interior. As an alternative to the traditional approach that considers the population growth rate, we include the share of sectoral employment aiming to capture labour specialisation in the main sectors of economic activity and measure its impact on regional growth.The empirical analysis estimates the conditional convergence model of the Barro's type, applied to the Portuguese NUTS3 regions for the period 1996-2005. The GMM estimation approach applied to regional panel data reveals that factors associated with external trade, human capital and sectoral labour share (especially of the industrial sector) are relevant to explain regional growth and convergence in Portugal.     

Preferential trade and mis-invoicing: Some analytical implications

This paper examines how different trade policies affect illegal trade practices, foreign exchange market and the degree of illegal capital outflow. It builds up a three-country preferential–non-preferential trade model where low or zero tariff prevails in the preferential trade channel and higher tariff is exercised in the non-preferential trade channel. We show that initially the preferential trade channel is likely to encourage illegal capital outflow and non-preferential trade channel is conducive for illegal transactions in foreign exchange in the local market. But finally a low tariff regime takes care of both illegal capital outflow and black market for foreign exchange.     

Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model of Unified Germany

The paper sets up a two-region endogenous growth model to discuss growth and regional convergence of unified Germany. It emphasizes the role of private and public capital accumulation during the developing process. The theoretical part derives fiscal policy rules which establish convergence of regional output per capita and convergence of regional human wealth. To assess the speed of convergence the model is calibrated with German data. Given a fiscal policy rule that is consistent with the data on government spending in East and West Germany after unification the model suggests that East Germany will reach 80 per cent of West Germany's income per capita between 20 and 30 years after unification and that actual transfers are approximately sufficient to equalize regional human wealth. The results are compared with an extension of the model that includes wage-setting behaviour and unemployment in the eastern region.     

Convergence as a heterogeneous process: what can be learnt about convergence in EMU from regional experiences?

We augment the existing literature on regional convergence by uncovering a number of stylized facts on the heterogeneity of regional convergence processes in the absence of currency devaluation as a key policy instrument, and use them to highlight reform strategies that are most likely to be conducive to a successful catching-up of the periphery countries of EMU. We show that regional convergence processes in Europe were extremely heterogeneous, highly discontinuous and strongly concentrated during the last two decades. These stylized facts question the focus of the traditional literature on average (β-)convergence and suggest substantial nonlinearities in regional convergence processes that have yet to be understood in detail. Our results further suggest that growth strategies based on increasing human capital investments and innovation capacities are the most likely to be successful in triggering convergence of lagging regions in currency unions.