OWN‐ AND CROSS‐PRICE ELASTICITIES FOR GAMES WITHIN A STATE LOTTERY PORTFOLIO

Lotto demand modeling typically focuses on a single game and evaluates whether estimated “effective price” (expected loss from buying one ticket) elasticity is consistent with net revenue maximization. However, a portfolio of several different lottery games is now usually offered to players and judging the effectiveness of agencies in generating revenue requires estimation of both cross‐price and own‐price elasticities. Here we employ data from Spain to derive elasticities. Results imply that games are under‐priced if net revenue maximization is the goal. But the cross‐price estimates suggest that the operator is successful in limiting the extent to which a large jackpot on one game cannibalizes same‐week sales of other games. The paper also analyzes the impacts from two increases in the level of entry fees introduced during the data period. These appear to have affected net revenue favorably. (JEL D12, G11, H27, H30, L83)     

REEXAMINING THE BORDER TAX EFFECT: A CASE STUDY OF WASHINGTON STATE

Without an income tax, Washington State relies heavily upon its sales tax revenue to fund public goods and services. Bordering Idaho and especially Oregon, where the sales tax is substantially lower, the juxtaposition of the different tax structures generates the border tax effect in Washington's border counties. Controlling for unobservable county‐specific characteristics and spatial autocorrelation, we find that the price elasticity generated by the sales tax discrepancy over the years 1992–2006 is ?3.11. We estimate that elimination of the sales tax differential between Washington and its neighboring states would generate tax revenue in excess of $145 million at the state level and over $21 million at the county level in border counties. (JEL C23, D12, E62, H71)     

MINIMUM WAGES AND HEALTHY DIET

A healthy diet is often unaffordable for low‐income individuals, so income‐lifting policies may play an important role in not only alleviating poverty but also in improving nutrition. We investigate if higher minimum wages can contribute to an improved diet by increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables. Exploiting recent minimum wage increases in the United States and using individual‐level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System we identify the causal effect of minimum wage changes on fruit and vegetable intake among low‐wage individuals in a triple‐differences framework. The estimated minimum wage elasticity of fruit and vegetable consumption equals 0.12. (JEL I12, I18, J38)     

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia: Evidence of state‐specific heterogeneity

This paper estimates country‐wide and state‐level income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia for the period 1999Q1–2013Q2 using the National Electricity Market data and the autoregressive‐distributed lag model. The results suggest that the long‐run income and price elasticities are inelastic and are statistically significant with theoretically consistent signs. The country‐wide income and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.41 and ?0.38, respectively. It is also found that there exists state‐specific heterogeneity in both speed and magnitude of the electricity consumption adjustment in response to changes in income and electricity price. These results have important policy implications, including the need to use state‐specific elasticities in the scenario analysis of the energy pricing policy.     

THE BUILT-IN FLEXIBILITY OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION TAXES IN NEW ZEALAND

This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in New Zealand, based on the 2001 tax structure and expenditure patterns. Using analytical expressions for revenue elasticities at the individual and aggregate levels, together with a simulated income distribution, values for New Zealand were obtained. Results using equi-proportional income changes suggest that the aggregate income and consumption tax revenue elasticities are both fairly constant as mean income increases, at around 1.3 and 0.95 respectively. This latter estimate assumes that increases in disposable income are accompanied by approximately proportional increases in total expenditure. If there is a tendency for the savings proportion to increase as disposable income increases, a somewhat lower total consumption tax revenue elasticity, of around 0.9, is obtained for 2001 income levels. However, non-equiproportional income changes are more realistic. Allowing for regression towards the geometric mean income reduces these elasticities, giving an elasticity for income and consumption taxes combined that is only slightly above unity. Examination of the tax-share weighted expenditure elasticities for various goods also revealed that, despite the adoption of a broad based GST at a uniform rate in New Zealand, the persistence of various excises has an important effect on the overall consumption tax revenue elasticity, especially for individuals at relatively low income levels.     

Expanding New York State's Earned Income Tax Credit Programme: the effect on work,income and poverty

Given its favourable employment incentives and ability to target the working poor, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has become the primary antipoverty programme at both the federal and state levels. However, when evaluating the effect of EITC programmes on income and poverty, governments generally calculate the effect using simple accounting, where the value of the state or federal EITC benefit is added to a person's income. These calculations omit the behavioural incentives created by the existence of these programmes, the corresponding effect on labour supply and hours worked, and therefore the actual effect on income and poverty. This article simulates the full effect of an expansion of the New York State EITC benefit on employment, hours worked, income, poverty and programme expenditures. These results are then compared to those omitting labour supply effects. Relative to estimates excluding labour supply effects, the preferred behavioural results show that an expansion of the New York State EITC increases employment by an additional 14?244 persons, labour earnings by an additional $95.8 million, family income by an additional $84.5 million, decreases poverty by an additional 56?576 persons and increases costs to the State by $29.7 million.     

Modelling variety in consumption expenditure on food in India

In this paper we compute nutrient‐income elasticities for two macronutrients (calories and protein) and five micronutrients (calcium, thiamine, riboflavin, carotene and iron) using an all‐India sample of rural households for 1994. We show that in each case the respective elasticities are positive and significant. This lends support to our hypothesis that an increase in income would increase nutrient intake by varying amounts, contrary to some assertions. We then compute differences in the elasticity of substitution for non‐poor and poor across commodity groups and show that these differences, while significant, are small. This further corroborates our conclusion that increases in income of the poor would lead to greater increases in their nutrient intake as compared to the non‐poor, although the magnitudes will be small.     

ESTIMATING IMPORT AND EXPORT DEMAND ELASTICITIES FOR MAURITIUS AND SOUTH AFRICA

In this paper, we re‐estimate the import and the export demand functions for Mauritius and South Africa using time series data. We use the bounds tests for cointegration and find evidence of a long‐run relationship between import demand, income and prices for both countries. Our long run elasticities reveal that domestic income and relative prices have significant effects on the import demand for both countries, with income being the most important determinant. Furthermore, we find that while South Africa's export demand is not responsive to relative prices or income; for Mauritius income is statistically significant.     

VOTER PREFERENCES,INSTITUTIONS, AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM

The enormous impact that economic freedom can have on economic outcomes makes an understanding of the factors or forces affecting its level paramount. To what extent do citizen preferences regarding the role of government in the economy drive the level of or changes in economic freedom? We explore this question using a new index of voting in the U.S. Congress constructed consistent with the Fraser Institute indices of economic freedom. We use voting on national legislation to examine state‐level economic freedom to clearly separate the measurement of preferences from policies that at least partly reflect these preferences. We find that Congressional votes, both from the House and Senate, are related to increases in state economic freedom, and that the result is generally statistically and economically significant, and robust to inclusion of a variety of socioeconomic control variables. (JEL D72, H10, H50)     

Jackpot promotion model for Taiwan Lotto

Lotto was inaugurated in January 2002, and immediately became a popular activity in Taiwan; as the big craze following its initial introduction has subsided, the growth of Lotto game sales has slowed. To maintain lottery sales’ momentum, operators have conducted numerous jackpot promotions; this study examines the effectiveness of various jackpot promotional strategies. The analytical results can provide a valuable reference for operators and governmental authorities regarding ways of increasing lottery earnings. The empirical findings of this investigation include the following: (1) the effective price elasticity of Lotto is ?0.382; Taipei Fubon Bank can increase the revenue gained from Lotto by increasing the effective price; (2) operators can significantly increase lottery sales by declaring the jackpot as an unconditional added fixed or variable bonus.     

ESTIMATES OF THE PRICE ELASTICITY OF SWITCHING BETWEEN BRANDED AND GENERIC DRUGS

We estimate price elasticities of switching from branded to generic drugs for two widely used drugs: Prozac and Zocor. We find the price elasticity of switching varies by drug and is between 0.01 and 0.10. While elasticity estimates for Zocor are robust to the inclusion of controls for supply‐side factors, those for Prozac are not. Our results indicate consumers in managed care plans are most responsive to differences in out‐of‐pocket (OOP) cost, and we estimate that a 10% increase in the OOP cost difference between Zocor and generic Simvastatin increases an individual's probability of switching to the generic by approximately 0.3%. This would result in a modest total savings of $36,700 among our sample of 114,218 privately insured Zocor users. Our finding that individuals are relatively unresponsive to the lower prices caused by generic introduction implies that policies targeting supply‐side behavior are likely to have a larger effect on generic uptake than price‐based inducements. If generic‐uptake did occur immediately within the first 18 months after generic introduction, the total savings among individuals and insurance companies within our sample would be approximately $7 million for Zocor and $255,000 for Prozac. (JEL I11, I18)     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES FOR DIETARY IMPROVEMENT AMONG FOOD STAMP RECIPIENTS

Most Americans need to consume more fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. This need is particularly acute among low‐income individuals. This study examines the cost‐effectiveness of two economic policies that use alternative policy levers available within the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly Food Stamp Program) to increase consumption of these under‐consumed foods. Data from three nationally representative surveys are used to estimate demand elasticities, marginal propensity to spend on food out of food stamp benefits, and consumption amount of and spending on under‐consumed foods among food stamp recipients. Results suggest that a 10% price subsidy would curtail consumption deficiencies by 4%–7% at an estimated cost of $734 million a year. When the same $734 million is used to finance food stamp benefits, consumption deficiencies are predicted to narrow by only 0.35%–0.40%. (JEL C34, D12, Q18)     

TAXES,INCOME, AND RETIREMENT SAVINGS: DIFFERENCES BY PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY INCOME

This article examines the determinants of and benefits from saving for retirement in tax‐preferred accounts by permanent and transitory income levels. We find that higher incomes (both permanent and transitory) are associated with a greater probability to contribute and larger contributions. We also find that tax benefits for retirement savings increase strongly with income, although the increase is slightly smaller when taxpayers are ranked by their permanent (rather than current) income. In addition, we find that a large portion of the benefits from the Saver's Credit go to taxpayers who would not be eligible based on their permanent income. Finally, we find that recent tax changes (including the introduction of the Saver's Credit) significantly increased contributions among low‐income households, although the effect was centered among those with only transitorily low income. (JEL H24, H31, E21)     

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF VALUING HEALTH INSURANCE ON LEVELS AND TRENDS IN INEQUALITY AND HOW THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT OF 2010 COULD AFFECT THEM

A substantial part of the U.S. inequality literature focuses on yearly levels and trends in pre‐tax, post‐transfer cash income and its distribution over time and finds that median income appears to be stagnating, with income growth primarily coming at higher income levels. When we use data from the Current Population Survey for 1995–2008 and add the value of employer‐ and government‐provided health insurance coverage, not only does it increase the upward trend in the level of resources controlled by Americans, but also reduces the level of inequality in these resources and its upward trend. We then provide a highly stylized example of this broader income measure's value in capturing the impact of two key provisions of the Affordable Care Act of 2010—an expansion in Medicaid and the provision of subsidies to lower‐income families for purchasing private coverage on state‐run exchanges. Even though these incremental expansions build on existing systems of government‐provided health insurance, we find that the vast majority of the benefits would still accrue to the bottom three deciles of the income distribution when we include the value of employer‐ and government‐provided health insurance in our expanded yearly income measure. (JEL D31, H51, I14)     

THE MORTALITY COST OF EXPENDITURES

This paper updates the mortality cost of expenditures, which has relevance to a broad range of policies, including regulations, wars, and COVID‐19 restrictions. Because changes in income lead to changes in mortality risk, health investments costing more per life saved than a threshold cost‐per‐life‐saved cutoff level are expected to increase mortality risk. This article discusses the mechanisms driving this relationship and provides recent empirical support. The 2019 cost‐per‐life‐saved cutoff level at which expenditures increase mortality risk has a lower bound of $83.1 million and an upper bound of $133.8 million, with a midpoint of $108.5 million. (JEL D61, I18, J17, K32)     

Hourly wage rate and taxable labor income responsiveness to changes in marginal tax rates

Recently, a voluminous literature estimating the taxable income elasticity has emerged as an important field in empirical public economics. However, to a large extent it is still unknown how the hourly wage rate, an important component of taxable income, reacts to changes in marginal tax rates. In this study we use a rich panel data set and a sequence of tax reforms that took place in Sweden during the 1980s to estimate the elasticity of the hourly wage rate as well as the taxable labor income elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax rate. We also estimate elasticities with respect to the non-labor income in a way that is novel in the literature. While carefully accounting for the endogeneity of marginal tax rates we find a statistically significant response in wage rates both among married men and women. The estimates of the hourly wage rate elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax rate fall in the range of 0.14–0.16 for males and 0.41–0.57 for females, whereas the corresponding taxable labor income elasticity estimates hover between 0.19–0.21 for males and 0.96–1.44 for women. Moreover, for men we find that the taxable labor income elasticity with respect to non-labor income is statistically significant; the point estimate being ? 0.07. This implies that the compensated taxable labor income elasticity is about 5 percentage points higher than the uncompensated one. In general, we consider the estimates for males to be more certain and robust than the estimates for females.     

THE SHORT‐RUN EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF RECENT MINIMUM WAGE CHANGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

This paper presents early evidence on the employment effects of state minimum wage increases enacted between January 2013 and January 2015. As of 2015, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases (defined as those exceeding $1) reduced employment among low‐skilled population groups by just over 1 percentage point. Smaller minimum wage increases, as well as increases linked to inflation indexation provisions, appear to have had much smaller (and possibly positive) effects on employment over our sample period. The estimates thus raise the potential importance of nonlinearities in the minimum wage's effects, which are consistent with standard models of the labor market. (JEL H11, J08, J23)     

WHO PAYS NO TAX? THE DECLINING FRACTION PAYING INCOME TAXES AND INCREASING TAX PROGRESSIVITY

Using federal individual income tax data, this paper presents the first long‐run estimates of the fraction paying no income tax. Between 1985 and 2015, the fraction of working age adults paying no tax increased from 20% to 36%. A decomposition shows that almost all of this increase resulted from changes in tax policy, especially from more generous tax credits. Increasing tax progressivity over the last three decades also resulted from more generous tax credits. The substantial federal tax changes enacted in 2017 are forecasted to temporarily increase both the fraction paying no tax and individual income tax progressivity. (JEL H22, H24, H31)     

MINIMUM WAGES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

This study is the first to explore the relationship between minimum wage increases and state gross domestic product (GDP). Using data drawn from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 1979 to 2012, I find no evidence that minimum wage increases were associated with changes in overall state GDP. However, this null finding masks substantial heterogeneity in the productivity effects of minimum wages across industries and over the business cycle. Difference‐in‐difference‐in‐difference estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a short‐run 1% to 2% decline in state GDP generated by lower‐skilled industries relative to more highly skilled industries. This differential appears larger during troughs as compared to that during peaks of the state business cycle. (JEL J3, J4, L5)     

Consumption,Income, and Wealth: Evidence from Age,Cohort, and Period Elasticities

This paper examines the relationship between non‐durable consumption, income, and wealth (housing and financial) allowing explicitly for generational heterogeneity. A framework is proposed to disentangle cohort, age, and period effects and the empirical analysis is based on the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data. We find that there are significant generational differences and the results highlight the range of elasticities implicit in results presented, thus far, by age groups. Moreover, we find supporting evidence of humped shaped age profiles for the elasticity of consumption with respect to income and the importance of financial wealth for those aged 60+. The framework also allows us to generate cohort profiles which draw attention to the negative role of housing wealth for generation X, and period profiles which reinforce the role of financial wealth for the baby‐boom generation.