新世纪以来乡村地理学国际研究进展及启示

回顾和总结了新世纪以来国际乡村地理学研究的相关进展与动向,涉及乡村内涵和研究领域、研究理论和方法及其发展趋势。结果表明:新世纪以来国际乡村地理学研究开始转向探究乡村性的表现,即从原先关注乡村的物质性转向关注其政治经济结构与社会建设;在研究方法上,倾向于综合运用定性与定量相结合的多元方法。未来国际乡村地理学的发展方向与研究热点主要涉及全球化背景下的一些全球性议题,为此,乡村地理学研究亟需加强跨学科联系与合作,并注重研究尺度的外扩与内敛。最后,结合国际乡村地理学的最新研究进展,联系中国实际,提出了未来中国乡村地理学研究需要重点关注的方向。     

我国农业地理学研究的回顾和发展趋势

本文系统地回顾了农业地理学５０ 年的研究历程,对农业地理学理论体系的建立、农业地理学的生产应用和对国民经济的重要贡献作出了全面的总结。同时,在新世纪、新体制和新形式下,对农业资源综合评价及合理应用、农村产业结构调整与农业产业化、农村城镇化与工业化、农村生态环境建设与可持续发展、农村社会经济区域发展规划以及乡村地理学理论与方法等领域的研究和创新进行了展望。     

乡村旅游市场可持续发展的经济学分析

乡村旅游目前已经成为国内旅游业界、政府和学者共同关注的热点话题之一。然而由于我国乡村旅游研究的开展时间不长,在研究内容上更多的是乡村旅游概念的阐释、乡村旅游开发意义、乡村旅游发展模式等的探讨,在研究方法上较多地与地理学相结合,研究内容的狭窄与研究方法单一,缺少对乡村旅游较深层次的研究,显然不利于乡村旅游的可持续发展,为此,本文拟从经济学的角度,探讨乡村旅游的可持续发展。     

乡村旅游市场可持续发展的经济学分析

乡村旅游目前已经成为国内旅游业界、政府和学者共同关注的热点话题之一.然而由于我国乡村旅游研究的开展时间不长,在研究内容上更多的是乡村旅游概念的阐释、乡村旅游开发意义、乡村旅游发展模式等的探讨,在研究方法上较多地与地理学相结合,研究内容的狭窄与研究方法单一,缺少对乡村旅游较深层次的研究,显然不利于乡村旅游的可持续发展,为此,本文拟从经济学的角度,探讨乡村旅游的可持续发展.     

农牧交错带乡村空间发展类型及影响因素研究

乡村空间发展类型识别与划分一直是乡村地理学研究热点之一。文章以宁夏盐池县为例,利用引力模型、可达性测度模型和空间自相关模型识别该县乡村地域空间发展类型,通过地理探测器探测其影响因素,揭示影响农牧交错带乡村发展核心要素的空间分异状况。结果表明:乡村空间发展系统分析框架对于新时期农牧交错带村域空间发展类型的识别与发展振兴具有一定的适用性和导向性;宁夏盐池村域空间发展类型可识别和划分为4种乡村地域空间发展类型,分别为城郊融合类、集聚提升类、适度挖潜类、搬迁撤并类,并对分类因素进行了探测分析,以期对乡村振兴能够进行靶向治疗,促进乡村振兴战略的落实落地。该研究结果可为农牧交错带"乡村空间重构"和"乡村振兴规划"提供科学依据。     

国外人文地理学发展简介

地理学是研究地理环境(指自然地理环境)的变化发展规律以及人类活动和地理环境的关系的科学。其中,研究地理环境变化发展规律的是自然地理学,而研究人类活动和地理环境关系的就是人文地理学。但我国地理学界在解放后由于受苏联的影响,只注意了对人文地理学的一部分——经济地理学的研究,忽视了对人文地理学其他部分的探讨,以至影响了我国地理学的健全发展。现在,越来越多的地理工作者认识到这个问题,建议在我国开展对人文地理学的全面研究。因此,中国地理学会经济地理专业委员会在今年5月13日～19日于杭州召开了我国解放后的第一次人文地理学术讨论会。     

"人地关系地域系统"学术思想与经济地理学

人地关系地域系统的学术思想是吴传钧先生对我国地理学发展做出的重大贡献。人地关系地域系统学术思想主要来源于吴先生长期对经济地理学发展过程、研究对象和主要研究内容的探究与实践,人地关系地域系统的学术思想已成为我国经济地理学科建设的理论基石与工作指南。近些年以来     

20世纪80年代以来我国城市地理学研究的回顾与展望

在收集和整理1980一2000年国内主要地理及相关期刊和外文相关期刊的基础上，对80年代以来我国城市地理学的发展进行回顾。分别从城市空间结构、区域城镇体系、城市化、新领域与新方法以及其他相关研究等方面，总结我国城市地理学研究领域和主要研究成果，分析研究趋势，并借鉴国外的经验，展望我国城市地理学的发展。     

关于中国21世纪经济地理学发展的几点思考

在深刻认识我国经济地理学发展时代背景的基础上,对经济地理学的发展现状、发展趋势以及所面临的任务进行了若干思考.     

中国式现代化与我们的使命担当——对地理学、人文与经济地理学自主知识创新的讨论

中国地理学，特别是中国人文与经济地理学形成了具有鲜明特色的学科发展体系。党的二十大报告提出实现中国式现代化的历史使命。立足于地理学的学科定位和发展走向，着眼于经济地理学面向社会发展的现实需求，是正确理解和建构中国经济地理学自主知识创新体系的重要前提。首先，在讨论地理学发展战略、阐释地理过程和地理格局研究重点应从模拟和预判走向调控的基础上，文章认为：我国未来国土空间体系优化调控应成为地理学前沿命题。进而重点讨论了人文与经济地理学未来发展的5个创新方向，包括综合人文地理学将成为一个新的分支学科；人文地理学科中人口地理学的回归和振兴；做大做强政治、社会、文化地理学；重大生产力布局原理研究；国土空间体系优化的辅助决策方法论。中国地理学战略研究、国际代表性杂志和美国战略的主题词的比较表明：我国同美国战略的提法基本一致；美国战略研究同现实中国际发展前沿不相同；我国具有鲜明的研究特色且与目前现实发展的国际前沿有明显的差异性，创新地理学、人文与经济地理学自主知识具有现实基础和客观需求。其次，中国式现代化建设的使命任务与人文地理学发展规律在科学内涵、建设任务、发展路径和发展目标上高度契合。在科学内涵上，...     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.