金融危机背景下银行类股票β值及其稳定性的实证检验

在金融研究中,风险和收益、个股与整个股市的波动一直是人们最为关注的问题。特别是在2007年8月美国次贷危机迅速蔓延后,各个公司更加重视股市波动的研究,以求最大限度地规避风险、获得最大收益。在金融研究中,人们通常用期望值表示收益,用方差和标准差来衡量风险。而在两者的关系研究中,资本资产定价模型反映了均衡状态下单个证券的预期回报与其相对市场风险值之间的关系,也描述了证券的风险溢价与市场组合风险溢价之间的关系。选择金融危机迅速传播后的2007年8月到2011年10月21日为研究时间段,选择上海证券交易所A股市场的浦发银行（600000）等14只银行类股票为研究对象,确定它们的值,研究银行类股票与整个股市波动的相关性,说明它们的风险溢价与市场组合风险溢价之间的变动关系。考虑到在所选时间段中,2010年3月开展的融资融券业务可能会对股票值的稳定性有所影响,因此,在求出这些股票的值后,还对这些股票值的稳定性进行了Chow检验。     

中国A股市场股票收益率风险因素分析:基于Fama-French三因素模型

本文以中国A股市场上市公司为样本,基于Fama-French三因素模型,实证分析了中国A股市场股票收益率的风险因子.研究结果表明,Fama-French三因素模型较CAPM模型能更好地解释中国A股市场的股票收益率;中国A股市场股票收益率存在规模与价值效应,股票(或股票组合)收益与公司规模呈显著负相关关系,而与公司账面市值比呈显著正相关关系.     

次贷危机在黄金、原油和外汇市场的风险传染和波动溢出

笔者通过向量自回归及多元广义自回归条件异方差模型,对比分析了2008年次贷危机前后黄金、原油和美元市场的相互联系,研究了次贷危机在这三个市场间的传导机制和波动性溢出效应.实证结果表明危机是由美元和黄金市场向原油市场传染的.这场危机不仅加剧了市场的剧烈波动,而且使市场间的风险相互溢出,同时影响多个市场.危机后黄金市场的风险较低,美元市场的波动最为剧烈.     

平均相关系数与系统性风险：来自中国市场的证据

本文研究了平均相关系数与系统性风险的关系,拓展了Pollet and Wilson(2010)的模型,找到了资产预期收益率与股票、债券平均相关系数的关系,更好地解决了系统性风险的度量问题。实证中,我们首先发现股票与债券市场的平均相关系数反映了系统性风险,而股票市场的波动并不能反映系统性风险;其次,股票投资者是风险偏好,但债券市场的投资者是风险厌恶的;最后,股票与债券的市场间相关系数未被定价,二者还具有较大的独立性。     

美国次贷危机的深层次原因与影响

自2007年夏美国次贷危机爆发至2008年7月,美国资产价格泡沫依次破灭,许多持有次级房贷的银行和与房贷相关的金融机构纷纷破产,金融产品的风险及流动性短缺进一步扩散,并引发了全球主要金融市场的持续动荡.到2008年7月,历时近一年的美国次贷危机和国际金融市场动荡一度似乎出现缓解迹象,甚至有些国际金融机构和学者乐观地估计美国次贷危机最严重的时期可能已经过去.但实际上今年以来美国房地产业持续低迷、房价继续下跌,在恐慌情绪下许多美国银行业股票被抛售,银行挤兑现象不断增多.从目前美国房地产市场     

由次贷危机看我国的房贷危机

2007年2月美国爆发了“次贷危机”,针对愈演愈烈的危机,我们应该冷静地对美、中两国的房地产金融、金融监管方面的态度、经济结构特点等三个方面进行比较分析,可发现虽然我国的房地产金融体系还不够完善,银行系统存在着较大的风险,但我国尚未形成房地产抵押二级市场,个人房贷的资金主要来源依然是居民的储蓄存款,并且中国和美国的经济发展模式不同,因此,当前中国不会发生类似美国的“次贷危机”的房贷危机。,     

中美房地产市场泡沫的对比探析

近几年我国的住房价格表现出了比较强烈的涨势,住房价格的异常波动带来了高杠杆率,大量场外资金加杠杆投机推动产生大量房地产市场泡沫,部分城市的房地产市场泡沫破灭会对我国宏观经济环境造成严重冲击,甚至有可能引发次贷危机.美国房地产市场上信用衍生产品的滥用催生了房地产市场泡沫,在紧缩的货币政策与资金链条断裂的作用下爆发次贷危机,对我国房地产市场的发展有一定的警示作用.当前我国住房市场存在着金融体系杠杆率过高、金融创新发展过快、房地产市场供求失衡等问题,形成了爆发次贷危机的隐患.我国政府对房地产市场有较强的掌控能力,虽然存在住房价格泡沫,但出现大型次贷危机的可能性较低.政府及金融监管部门应当采取加快去杠杆速度、审慎推进金融创新、实施严格限购限贷政策等有效对策,缓解房地产市场泡沫的不断扩张.     

房价波动、隐含担保与银行系统性风险*

银行对房地产行业的信贷优先倾向导致信贷投放向房地产业集中,房地产价格波动对金融系统性风险的影响日益突出。本文基于银行与房地产两部门或有权益资产负债表分析框架,从资产和负债两个方面研究房地产部门对银行的风险传导机制,构造银行对房地产部门的隐含担保比例作为度量风险传导强度的指标,运用TVP VAR方法刻画2002—2016年我国房价波动与房地产部门、银行系统性风险的动态演变路径。研究结果表明,我国房地产风险主要通过银行信贷从负债项进行风险传导,房地产部门风险对风险传导强度的影响存在明显的结构性突变,银行系统性风险存在非线性加速恶化特征。本文最后提出要稳定房价、拓宽房地产融资渠道、降低地方政府对土地财政依赖等建议。     

美国次贷危机的生成机制与扩张效应

房地产泡沫破裂是美国发生次贷危机的根源。美国次贷危机之所以快速向系统性金融危机演变,关键原因是次级抵甲贷款债券及其衍生品具有内在的风险扩张机制。次贷市场不透明和缺少流动性保障的交易机制、评估普遍存在“助涨杀跌”的顺周期效应、金融机构风险管控不力、营销模式隐含了很高的道德风险等制度性因素,也对次贷市场的风险集聚和危机爆发起到了推波助澜的作用。美国次贷危机最终有可能导致全球经济危机和经济衰退。     

汇率与股价波动研究——基于中国与日本高频数据的ARCH检验

次贷危机发生前，汇率与股指存在ARCH效应，且均有不对称信息的冲击，波动存在持续性的影响；次贷危机发生后，汇率与股价都不存在ARCH效应，系统性风险和非系统性风险暴露出来使得汇率对股市的波动影响降低，从而促进投资者风险得到有效对坤。     

Return and volatility spillovers effects: Evaluating the impact of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

This study investigates the impact of the recently introduced Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Using high frequency data and dynamic forecasting techniques, we find that the new Stock Connect does contribute to the increasing importance of the Chinese mainland stock market and economic activity. A weak and unstable cointegration relationship is found after this event. Additionally, the Stock Connect has also increased the conditional variance of both stock markets. We observe a leading role of the Shanghai stock market to the Hong Kong stock market in terms of both mean and volatility spillover effects after the Stock Connect. Our study indicates that the opening up of stock markets in China could enhance the leading power, influence the risk level and improve the market efficiency of the Chinese mainland stock market, since the volatility spillover effect from Shanghai to Hong Kong is strengthened. Besides, our results have important policy implications, especially on how policy makers should deal with the increased market interconnectedness and for portfolio managers in choosing potential hedging instruments. The success of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect provides valuable operational experience for the forthcoming Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect which could further improve the market efficiency in China.     

Are securitised real estate markets efficient?: New international evidence based on an improved automatic Portmanteau test

We re-examine the efficiency of real estate markets based on the Escanciano-Lobato (2009) autocorrelation test which we improved by means of wild bootstrapping. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we find that the wild bootstrap-based autocorrelation test has very good performance even in small samples. We apply the improved test to examine the efficiency of 14 international securitized real estate markets—Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States. Our results show that only six of these markets—Australia, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Sweden and the United States are efficient while the rest are inefficient. We also find that the degree of efficiency or inefficiency of each of these markets varies considerably across time. These findings indicate that real estate markets are relatively less efficient as compared to stock and bond markets in general and may also offer an explanation as to why existing studies on real estate market efficiency have mixed results.     

国际对冲基金的中国资产配置研究

"热钱"进入的状况和影响目前正在受到国内各界的广泛关注。文章借用以指数收益推算要素敞口的方法,研究了"热钱"的典型代表———国际对冲基金在中国金融市场上的投资活动和资产分布。从全球对冲基金行业来看,尚不存在大规模投资于中国大陆市场的迹象。全球对冲基金业绩仅与中国股票市场存在较微弱的正相关关系。就大中华区而言,大陆股票、香港股票和台湾股票市场是这一地区对冲基金的主要活动场所。没有发现对冲基金在行业意义上进入中国债券、期货和房地产市场的证据。文章还分析了国际对冲基金进入中国的主要渠道和目前国内对对冲基金的监管现状,并提出有关政策建议。     

Asymmetric spillover effects between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets: evidence from quantile lagged regression

This article surveys the asymmetric spillover effects between the mainland China-based Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) and the Hong Kong based Hang Seng Index (HSI) using a quantile lagged regression model. Compared to previous studies, this article, based on data before and after the 2008 global financial crisis, presents a more detailed analysis, as we investigate the spillovers in terms of returns, volatilities and exchange rates between the renminbi (RMB) and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) throughout the entire conditional return distribution, including the central quantiles, which are closely related to the normal circumstances, and the extreme quantiles, which correspond to the bear and bull markets. First, we find that the return spillovers from its lagged returns or from the other index not only vary across time but also depend on stock state. Second, while return volatility may boost the stock market in a bull market, it accelerates the decline in a bear market. Third, the depreciation of the RMB relative to the HKD does not significantly affect current returns for the HSI, while it negatively affects current returns for the SCI in a bad state after the crisis. The findings presented in this article will facilitate investors’ understanding of the two stock markets.     

额外印花税与房价变动：基于香港的实证

房地产业在香港经济运行中占有不可忽视的地位。近年来,香港房价不断上涨引起了香港特区政府及香港社会各界的广泛关注,为保证香港房地产市场的平稳发展,特区政府实施了额外印花税等调控房地产市场的政策。本文分析了额外印花税影响房价变动的理论路径,并以香港2009—2012年房价变动的时间序列数据进行了实证检验。结果显示：额外印花税对香港房价的抑制作用不显著,额外印花税的实施并没有扭转房价持续走高的局面。     

In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns

We examine how fluctuations in financial and housing markets in the United States affect asset returns and GDP in Hong Kong. In contrast to studies using linear specifications, which find that the United States and Hong Kong are virtually delinked in terms of the asset markets, our regime‐switching models indicate that an unexpected change in US stock returns, followed by the TED spread, has the most significant effect on Hong Kong asset returns and GDP, typically in a regime of high return and low volatility. For in‐sample one‐step‐ahead forecasting, the US term spread is the best predictor.     

美国次级房货危机对中国房货和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

An empirical examination of factors driving the offshore renminbi market

Following the 2010 establishment of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, renminbi deposits there quickly rose above RMB 1 trillion. In this article, we examine fluctuations between the offshore value of the renminbi in Hong Kong and its onshore value in mainland China. The size of the spot market spread appears to be influenced by stock market sentiment as reflected in the spread between A-shares listed in Shanghai and H-shares listed in Hong Kong. There is also some evidence of a link between the spread and the pace of renminbi deposit growth in Hong Kong.     

美国次级房贷危机对中国房贷和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

The integration of direct real estate and stock markets in Asia

Currently, there exists relatively little research investigating the long-term association between stock and direct real estate markets. Using appropriate transaction-based property indices, this study focuses on the relationship between stock and direct real estate markets in nine Asian countries from the period 1980 to 2012 through both linear and nonlinear cointegration techniques. We find empirical evidence of linear cointegration of stock and property markets in Taiwan, fractional cointegration in Singapore and Hong Kong and no evidence of cointegration in China, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea. It is concluded that segmentation of property markets from stock markets does not appear to be linked to the differences in the maturity of national financial markets and that the differing degrees of integration across Asia may instead be reflective of a range of factors impacting upon the underlying economic structures in each country.