The changing demand for skillsEvidence from the transition1

Transition has involved major job destruction and creation. This paper examines the skill content of these changes using a detailed three country firm survey. It shows that transition has exerted a strong bias against unskilled labour that has lost employment disproportionately. The skill content of blue collar work has shifted upwards. Shifts away from low‐skilled labour were accelerated by technological change. By 2000, the actual and desired levels of employment were close to each other but we find some evidence that technological changes had given rise to shortages of skilled blue collar workers. Although there is variation across the sampled countries, this appears to be explained by differences in the timing of reforms. The observed changes will have major longer run implications for the level and structure of employment and for inequality through the distribution of earnings.     

Does the Progressivity of Income Taxes Matter for Human Capital and Growth?

We develop a model with heterogeneity in skills to study the effect of tax progressivity on economic growth. The probability of becoming skilled depends positively on expenses on teacher time. We consider growth resulting from an externality due to skilled workers and from their employment in research and development. We show changes in the progressivity of taxes can have growth effects even when changes in flat rate taxes have none. The response is stronger with externality‐driven growth. Progressive taxation, often suggested to reduce inequality, can increase the long‐run skill premium and decrease the upward mobility of the poor.     

A Directed Search Model of Inequality with Heterogeneous Skills and Skill–Biased Technology

In this paper I analyse the directed search/matching problem in an economy with heterogeneous skills and skill–biased technology. A unique symmetric equilibrium exists and is socially efficient. Matching is partially mixed in the equilibrium. A high–tech firm receives both skilled and unskilled applicants with positive probability, and favours skilled workers, while a low–tech firm receives only unskilled applicants. The model generates wage inequality among identical unskilled workers, as well as between–skill inequality, despite the fact that all unskilled workers perform the same task and have the same productivity in the two types of firms. Inequality has interesting responses to skill–biased technological progress, a general productivity slowdown, and an exogenous increase in the skill supply elasticity.     

人工智能的财富分配效应研究*

人工智能对经济不平等的影响引起学术界的广泛重视，但是现有研究以分析其对劳动收入不平等的影响为主，关于人工智能对财富分配从而对财产性收入不平等影响的相关研究尚有欠缺。本文通过构建一个连续时间异质性个体动态一般均衡模型，将人工智能对生产技术的影响看作一揽子偏向性技术进步，研究人工智能技术对财富分配的影响。分析发现，人工智能对财富不平等的影响在短期和长期表现有所不同，短期中人工智能技术的应用会提高经济中财富分配不平等程度，而长期中其财富分配效应则取决于人工智能对不同类型技术进步的促进程度。核心机制在于，人工智能技术进步的多样性在短期和长期中对资本回报率产生不同影响，短期中各类技术进步总是会提高资本回报率，而在长期，不同类型的技术进步对资本回报率的影响出现差异。基于以上结论，本文就我国如何在应用人工智能促进增长的同时预防不平等程度扩大提出了政策建议。     

Globalization,Skill Accumulation and the Skill Premium

We analyze the impact of globalization upon the skill premium (inequality) in advanced countries from a two‐goods North–South model with skill accumulation. Globalization consists of an increase in the size of the South. Its impact on inequality depends on its intensity and on the pre‐globalization proportion of skilled workers. The post‐globalization inequality is a non‐monotonic function of the pre‐globalization proportion of skilled workers and of the globalization intensity. The impact is different for the generation in work and for the following generations. There is a threshold value of the skill endowment under (above) which inequality is lower (higher) after than before globalization.     

Skills,Tasks and the Scarcity of Talent in a Global Economy

The scarcity of talent is a tremendous challenge for firms in the globalized world. This paper investigates the role of labor market imperfection in open economies for the usage of talent in the production process of firms. For this purpose, I set up a heterogeneous firms model, where production consists of a continuum of tasks that differ in complexity. Firms hire low‐skilled and high‐skilled workers to perform these tasks. How firms assign workers to tasks depends on factor prices for the two skill types and the productivity advantage of high‐skilled workers in the performance of complex tasks. I study the firms’ assignment problem under two labor market regimes, which capture the polar cases of fully flexible wages and a binding minimum wage for low‐skilled workers. Since the minimum wage lowers the skill premium, it increases the range of tasks performed by high‐skilled workers, which enhances the stock of knowledge within firms to solve complex tasks and reduces the mass of active firms. In a setting with fully flexible wages trade does not affect the firm‐internal assignment of workers to tasks. On the contrary, if low‐skilled wages are fixed by a minimum wage, trade renders high‐skilled workers a scarce resource and reduces the range of tasks performed by this skill type with negative consequences for the human capital stock within firms. In this case, trade leads to higher per‐capita income for both skill types and thus to higher welfare in the open than in the closed economy, whereas – somewhat counter‐intuitive – inequality between the two skill types decreases, as more low‐skilled workers find employment in the production process.     

Trade and inequality in a directed search model with firm and worker heterogeneity

This paper integrates the insight that exporting firms are typically more productive and employ higher‐skilled workers into a directed search model of the labour market. The model generates a skill premium as well as residual wage inequality among identical workers. A trade liberalization increases the skill premium and likely increases residual inequality among high‐skilled workers. The calibrated model generates results consistent with the prior literature examining the effect of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement on the Canadian labour market: a significant decrease in employment in manufacturing, but only a small change in unemployment and wages.     

Endogenous human capital formation,distance to frontier and growth

We examine human capital's contribution to economy-wide technological progress through two channels – imitation and innovation – innovation being more skill-intensive than imitation. We develop a growth model based on the endogenous ability-driven skill acquisition decision of an individual. It is shown that skilled human capital is growth enhancing in the “imitation-innovation” regime and in the “innovation-only” regime whereas unskilled human capital is growth enhancing in the “imitation-only” regime. Steady state exists and, in the long run, the economy converges to the world technology frontier. In the diversified regime, technological progress raises the return to ability and generates an increase in wage inequality between and within groups – consistent with the pattern observed across countries.     

Globalization,product differentiation,and wage inequality

Abstract This paper develops a two‐country, general equilibrium model of oligopoly in which the degree of horizontal product differentiation is endogenously determined by firms’ strategic investments in product innovation. Consumers seek variety and product innovation is more skill intensive than production. Stronger import competition increases innovation incentives, and thereby the relative demand for skill. An intra‐industry trade expansion following trade liberalization can therefore increase wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. As long as some industries remain shielded from international competition, the welfare implications of globalization are found to be generally ambiguous.     

A model of wage and employment effects of service offshoring

This paper develops a two‐sector model of trade in goods and intermediate tasks that differ in tradability and skill intensity. A skill‐abundant country with high productivity is shown to offshore more unskilled tasks than skilled tasks, without relying on a particular correlation structure between tradability and skill intensity. With putty‐clay technology that allows retraining in the long run, transition from the non‐offshoring to the offshoring equilibrium generates wage and employment effects that switch from negative to positive as tradability declines, with the switches occurring at a higher degree of tradability for skilled tasks. This is consistent with the empirical literature.     

Capital–Skill Complementarity and Inequality in Sweden

Income inequality increased in Sweden during the 1980s and 1990s, as did the returns to higher education. The main conclusion of this study is that increased income inequality between high‐ and low‐skilled workers is demand driven and is due to the presence of capital–skill complementarity in production. Increased investments in new, more efficient capital equipment, along with a slowdown in the growth rate of skilled labor, have raised the ratio of effective capital inputs per skilled worker, which, in turn, has increased the relative demand (and market return) for skilled labor through the capital–skill complementarity mechanism.     

Data deepening and nonbalanced economic growth

As a newly emerging factor, data can promote economic growth by driving technological progress, and nonbalanced growth between digital industries and nondigital industries has been notable in recent years. This paper provides a novel growth model with two sectors that differ in the degree of data deepening and the factor structure of the production function. In the model, data in one sector is the by-product of economic activities not only in its sector, but also in the other sector. More importantly, data utilization within and across sectors can spur new ideas and promote technological innovation. The model indicates that increases in the stock of data in the two sectors have opposite effects on the allocation of skilled labor between the two sectors. The skill premium (the wage of skilled labor relative to the wage of unskilled labor) decreases with an increase in the fraction of skilled labor employed in the data-extensive sector. With credible parameter values, model calibration shows that faster growth of output occurs in the more data-intensive sector and the high skill premium persists in the long run.     

LONG‐RUN INEQUALITY AND SHORT‐RUN INSTABILITY OF MEN'S AND WOMEN'S EARNINGS IN CANADA

This paper examines the variability of workers’ earnings in Canada over the period 1982–2006. We decompose the total variance of workers’ earnings into a ‘permanent’ component between workers and a ‘transitory’ earnings instability component over time for given workers. We then investigate the statistical relationships between these components and indicators for the business cycle. The most marked change in earnings variances in Canada since 1982 is the general rise in total earnings variance, which is essentially driven by a quite dramatic rise in long‐run earnings inequality. The patterns across age categories of the two variance components are almost opposite. Long‐run earnings inequality generally rises with age, but earnings instability is seen to generally decline with age, so that earnings instability is markedly highest among entry age workers. Unemployment rate effects are positive on almost all variance measures, while higher unemployment is associated with widened long‐run earnings differentials and greater short‐run earnings instability.     

Informality and Long‐Run Growth

One of the most salient features of developing economies is the existence of a large informal sector. In this paper, we use quantitative theory to study the dynamic implications of informality on wage inequality, human capital accumulation, child labor, and long‐run growth. Our model can generate transitory informality equilibria or informality‐induced poverty traps. Its calibration reveals that the case for the poverty‐trap hypothesis arises: although informality serves to protect low‐skilled workers from extreme poverty in the short run, it prevents income convergence between developed and developing nations in the long run. Then we examine the effectiveness of different development policies to exit the poverty trap. Our numerical experiments show that using means‐tested education subsidies is the most cost‐effective single policy option. However, for longer time horizons, or as the economy gets closer to the poverty trap threshold, combining means‐tested education and wage subsidies is even more effective.     

A Dynamic Incentive‐Based Argument for Conditional Transfers*

We compare the long‐run effects of replacing unconditional transfers to the poor by transfers conditional on the education of children. Unlike Mirrlees’ income taxation model, the distribution of skill evolves endogenously. Human capital accumulation follows the Freeman–Ljungqvist–Mookherjee–Ray OLG model with missing capital markets and dynastic bequest motives. Conditional transfers (funded by taxes on earnings of the skilled) are shown to induce higher long‐run output per capita and (both utilitarian and Rawlsian) welfare, owing to their superior effect on skill accumulation incentives. The result is established both with two skill levels, and a continuum of occupations.     

Persistent income gaps in an occupational choice model with multi‐goods

In this study, we propose a theory to explain why income gaps persist. We model a simple overlapping‐generations economy with three consumption goods and two types of workers. We find that high‐skilled workers have comparative advantage in skill‐intensive jobs and low‐skilled workers in less skill‐intensive jobs. This pattern of comparative advantage determines occupational choices by workers. Combined with human capital accumulation, the occupational choices widen income gaps between families. At the same time, the relative price of skill‐intensive goods declines owing to productivity improvement. The decline holds back income gaps from exploding. The implications of skill‐biased technological change are also examined.     

Intra‐industry Trade Liberalization: Why Skilled Workers are More Likely to Support Free Trade

This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical analysis that connects the prevalence of intra‐industry trade with increased wage inequality from trade liberalization in both skilled and unskilled labor abundant countries. The Stolper–Samuelson effect is incorporated into an intra‐industry trade liberalization (intra‐ITL) hypothesis where skilled labor opposes protectionism in all countries engaged in intra‐industry trade because skilled workers gain at the expense of unskilled workers from multilateral trade liberalization within the skill‐intensive sector. We examine empirical evidence on whether skilled individuals are more supportive of trade liberalization than unskilled individuals across 31 countries with different levels of intra‐industry trade and skill endowments. We find that the extent to which countries engage in intra‐industry trade in high‐tech commodities is strongly linked with the intensity of opposition to protection by skilled labor. Regression results strongly support our hypothesis that skilled workers, almost everywhere, are more likely to support free trade.     

Selective Immigration Policies and Wages Inequality

We quantify the overall impact of immigration on native wages in France from 1990 to 2010. Our short‐run simulations indicate that immigration has decreased native wages by 0.6%. We find on average no impact of immigration on wages in the long run. However, we show that the long‐run effects of immigration on wages are detrimental to high‐skilled native workers and benefits to low‐skilled native workers. Our structural estimation allows us to evaluate the impact of “selective” migration policies. In particular, we find that selective immigration policies toward highly educated workers reduce the wage dispersion of French native workers.     

SHORT- AND LONG-RUN DECOMPOSITIONS OF UK WAGE INEQUALITY CHANGES

This paper focuses on the decomposition of observed increases in UK wage inequality since 1979 into the component factors of competition from low‐wage imports and technological change. Building on recent work by Abrego and Whalley, we argue that the length of production run and degree of fixity of factors is crucial in such analyses. If the response of labour markets to date is a short‐run response, in which factors and output have not adjusted fully, then analysis of the causes of increased inequality is substantially altered relative to a long‐run factors mobile world.     

Does Trade Increase Inequality when Skills are Endogenous?

The paper explores the role of government policies in a situation where the wage gap between high‐skilled and low‐skilled workers is widening owing to increasing foreign competition in low‐skilled intensive goods. A two‐period, three‐sector general‐equilibrium model of a small open economy is developed in which individuals choose whether to invest in skills or not. The government influences individual decision‐making through its tax system. The paper shows that increasing import competition or lowering taxes on skilled workers widens inequality when the skill distribution is exogenous (the direct effect), but often the opposite occurs through the indirect effect, that is through the additional incentive to become skilled. Numerical results indicate that there exists a nonmonotonic relationship between the terms of trade and inequality. The indirect effect tends to dominate the direct effect when import competition is intense, and vice versa.