Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply

This paper studies the demand for and supply of residential housing in urban China since the late 1980s when the urban housing market became commercialized. Using aggregated annual data from 1987 to 2012 in a simultaneous equations framework we show that the rapid increase in the urban residential housing price can be well explained by the forces of demand and supply, with income determining demand and cost of construction affecting supply. We find the income elasticity of demand for urban housing to be approximately 1, the price elasticity of demand to be approximately ?1.1 and the price elasticity of supply of the total housing stock to be approximately 0.5. The resulting long‐run effect of income on urban housing prices in elasticity terms is approximately 0.7, because the increase in income has shifted the demand curve outward more rapidly than the supply curve.     

Modelling Aggregate Demand for Labour: A Critique of Lewis and MacDonald

In a recent contribution to this journal, Lewis and MacDonald (2002) argue that Australian literature on aggregate demand for labour is permeated with misunderstandings and, as a result, existing empirical work has been misinterpreted. The objective of the present note is to argue that the interpretation of existing empirical studies, to the extent that they are based on a CES production technology, is broadly correct. We demonstrate that Lewis and McDonald have no basis for estimating anything more than the partial elasticity of labour demand, holding output constant, because their single-equation estimation does not identify the elasticity of demand for output.     

Offshoring, labour market institutions and the elasticity of labour demand

This paper analyses the evolution of the elasticity of labour demand and the possible role of offshoring therein using industry-level data for a large number of OECD countries. The first main finding is that the wage elasticity of labour demand has increased substantially since 1980, although some of this increase may reflect a trend increase in the speed of adjustment rather than an increase in the long-run wage elasticity. The evidence on the potential contribution of offshoring to raising labour demand elasticity is mixed. No association is found between increases in offshoring and demand elasticity during the second half of the 1990s, but there is a significant cross-sectional association between higher average offshoring intensity during this period and higher demand elasticity. We also find some evidence that strict employment protection legislation weakens the cross-sectional association between offshoring and higher labour demand elasticity, suggesting that the relationship between offshoring and the labour demand elasticity may depend on the national institutional environment.     

Inflation and the Exchange Rate: The Role of Aggregate Demand Elasticity

This paper examines the effect of aggregate demand elasticity on the exchange rate when inflation occurs. We discover that both the source of the inflation, whether demand-pull or cost-push, and the elasticity of aggregate demand with respect to the price level, are of consequence for the exchange rate. We obtain two primary conclusions. First, the effect on the exchange rate of cost push inflation is ambiguous and is partially determined by the price level elasticity of aggregate demand. In particular, and assuming that the two examined countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, we conclude that the nation with the less elastic aggregate demand function will see its currency appreciate relative to the other. Second, demand-pull inflation results in an unambiguous increase in the exchange rate but the size of that increase is partially a function of aggregate demand elasticity. Assuming again that two countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, that country with the more elastic aggregate demand will experience currency appreciation.     

Demand elasticities for international message telephone service

Using a point-to-point model of toll demand, this paper provides estimates of own-price demand elasticities for international message telephone service. The study improves on previous studies by using more recent data and endogenizing price. Consistent with earlier studies, the demand for IMTS is found to be price inelastic, about??0.28 on average, in the short-run and near unitary elastic,??1.04 on average, in the long run. Both the level and the elasticity of demand are found to be positively related to the size of the telephone network. The own-price elasticity of demand for a select group of countries is provided.     

Measuring income elasticity for Swiss money demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?

Recent time-series evidence has re-confirmed the forecasting ability of Swiss broad money. The same money demand studies and others, however, find that the income elasticity is greater than one. Such parameter estimates are difficult to reconcile with transactions demand theory. This study re-examines the estimates for income elasticity in money demand based on cross-regional evidence for Switzerland. Particular attention is given to the influence of regional financial sophistication. The cross-cantonal results find that the income elasticity lies between 0.4 and 0.6. This discrepancy between the two empirical methodologies has important consequences for the conduct of Swiss monetary policy.     

N‐FIRM OLIGOPOLY WITH GENERAL ISO‐ELASTIC DEMAND

In this note oligopoly with iso‐elastic demand is analysed. Unlike previous studies we consider general iso‐elastic demand rather than the case of unit elasticity. An n‐firm Nash‐Cournot equilibrium for the case of heterogeneous constant marginal costs is derived. The main result is a closed‐form solution that shows the dependency of the equilibrium on the elasticity of demand and the share of industry costs. The result has applications to a wide range of areas in oligopoly theory by allowing comparisons across markets with different elasticities of demand.     

Universal telecommunication service: A world perspective

Worldwide telecommunications demand is estimated in models for business and residential mainline telephone, and for mobile telephone service using separate models for developed and developing countries for the period 1996–2001. We test for cross-price elasticities between mainline and mobile service and find that the results are generally suggestive of current complementary relationships. We find residential monthly price elasticity to be no different than zero for a sample of developing countries, but the connection elasticity is statistically significant. Mobile monthly service elasticity is much larger than those for mainline service, suggesting that universal service in developing countries might be promoted more effectively with subsidies for mobile service. Income elasticities for the residential model are modest while the mobile service model income elasticity for developing countries is much higher. Expanding markets, income growth and enhanced education may be the ultimate universal service promoters.     

EFFECTS OF PRICE AND AVAILABILITY ON ABORTION DEMAND

Over 1.5 million legal abortions were performed in the United States in 1988. State-level regulation affecting the price or availability of abortion services may expand given recent Supreme Court decisions. This paper uses state-level data pooled over time to estimate abortion demand. Using single cross-sections of state data, past studies find abortion demand per 1,000 pregnancies to be price inelastic and find income elasticity to be positive and significant. The analysis here shows that price elasticity estimates in a single cross-section are sensitive to the choice of state characteristics used to control for "abortion attitudes" within a state. Ajixed-efects model design with pooled data gives more robust abortion demand price elasticity estimates. The results suggest that any new state regulations that increase the costs of obtaining abortions will reduce abortion use and increase unintended fertility .     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON SKILL SHORTAGES AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN NEW ZEALAND*

Qualification and occupation‐based measures of skilled labour are constructed to explain the skill premium – the wage of skilled labour relative to unskilled labour in New Zealand. The data exhibit a more rapid growth in the supply of skilled labour than the skill premium, and a very large increase in the real minimum wage over the period from 1986 to 2005. We estimate the rate of increase in the relative demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution. The data are consistent with skill shortages and a skill‐bias technical change. We examine the effects of the minimum wage, capital complementarity, and the exchange rate on the skill premium. We also test whether the demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution varied across industries and over time.     

Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries

This article uses a detailed breakdown of Swiss trade flows to identify how the impact of the two main determinants of Switzerland’s exports – foreign demand and the real exchange rate – varies across sectors and export destinations. Our main findings are that (i) both foreign demand and exchange rate elasticities vary substantially across both export sectors and export destinations. (ii) Foreign demand trends are more important for structural considerations than the exchange rate. This is due to the fact that exports of the two largest export sectors are relatively sensitive to long-run foreign demand developments while they are relatively insensitive to changes in the exchange rate. (iii) The sectoral structure of Switzerland’s exports has shifted towards goods that have a lower short-run demand elasticity and a higher long-run demand elasticity. Goods exports are thus less influenced by business cycle fluctuations while they benefit more from long-term growth trends. (iv) The export share of sectors with a relatively low exchange rate elasticity has increased. However, this result is mainly driven by the strong rise in exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as precision instruments and watches, which are also the two important sectors responsible for the Swiss trade surplus.     

Exchange Rate Changes and Pricing Behavior of US Exporters

This paper studies export pricing behavior following exchange rate changes in US manufacturing industries. Through a monopolistic model, the paper predicts that export prices should change, but less than proportionally, in response to exchange rate changes if either or both demand elasticity and marginal cost are variable. Cross-industry variation of such price changes can be explained by the difference in demand elasticities between the domestic and the export markets, the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. and the export share. These predictions are supported by the empirical findings of the paper.     

The flexibility of household electricity demand over time

Empirical estimates of long run effects on residential electricity demand from changes in the electricity price are usually estimated by cross-sectional variation in the current stock of electric household appliances across households at a certain point in time. Here, we use a discrete–continuous approach modeling the long run effects by investments in new appliances. We apply the annual Norwegian Survey of Consumer Expenditure for the period 1975 to 1994 to estimate the short and long run own price elasticities in the two approaches. We find the estimated long run elasticity only slightly more price elastic than the short run. We also find that the long run elasticity does not differ significantly between the two approaches. The reason for both results is that, since there is no alternative source of energy for these appliances, there are no substitution effects.     

Estimation of an implied price elasticity of demand through current pricing practices

Researchers have long pursued better methods to estimate price elasticity of market-level demand. Due to a plethora of empirical problems, the estimates produced in many empirical studies leave researchers with wide confidence intervals that do little to clarify demand conditions. As a result, these estimates are of limited practical use to the firm facing a firm-level demand. Here, a non-statistical methodology based on seller optimization behaviour is applied that creates an ‘implied elasticity’ of firm-level demand that is robust, intuitively plausible and free of oppressive data requirements. These elasticities are tested in an applied setting against pricing managers’ surveyed estimates for customer price sensitivity for freight rail transportation services and it is found that the estimate is consistent with their pricing behaviour. This methodology is recommended for creating a simple, plausible starting point estimate for firm-level price elasticities, or using this calculation as an input to statistical studies.     

The role of labour demand elasticities in tax incidence analysis with heterogeneous labour

Whether labour bears full burden of household level income and consumption taxes ultimately depends on the degree of substitutability among different types of labour in production. We find more variation in incidence patterns across households with less than perfectly substitutable heterogeneous labour than with perfectly substitutable homogeneous labour in production. This finding is based on results obtained from homogeneous and heterogeneous labour general equilibrium tax models calibrated to decile level income and consumption distribution data of UK households for the year 1994. We use labour supply elasticities implied by the substitution elasticity in households' utility functions and derive labour demand elasticities from the substitution elasticity in the production function. First version received: March 1998/Final version received: April 1999     

Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price

This article considers the impact of match results on the stock returns of English football clubs. We propose that the magnitude of the response to a given result depends on the importance of the game, which is measured in two ways. First, we consider the extent to which the clubs are close rivals vying for similar league positions, as winning such games is particularly significant. Second, we argue that each individual game becomes more important for those clubs likely to be promoted or relegated as the season draws to a close, since a given match will have increasing information content concerning the final league position of the club. Using a fairly large panel comprising data for 19 clubs, we find some support for the notion that stock prices are affected more by the results of important matches than matches of lesser importance. We also observe that the difference between the number of points the club secures from a given match, and the number it was expected to secure, affects its stock price, as does the number of goals that the club under question scores in the match, relative to its competitor.     

中国钢铁长期需求:影响因素与政策选择

近年来,我国钢铁工业得到了长足的发展。但随着国内外市场供求关系变化,钢铁工业供求结构不相适应的矛盾日益显现。钢铁工业要实现可持续发展,必须重视对市场长期需求规律的研究,将数量增长和产品结构调整相结合。本文利用协整方程对市场经济条件下经济增长等因素对我国钢铁工业推动作用进行动态分析,探讨钢铁市场的长期需求规律,对于当前钢铁产业政策发展导向、政策选择等提出建议。     

Estimation of the effects of price on apartment water demand using cointegration and error correction techniques

Water price is a key instrument in regulating water demand in the residential sector. Many empirical studies have assessed the effects of price through quantifying the price elasticity of water demand. However, most of these studies have mainly focused on the single-family housing rather the multifamily housing. An in-depth understanding of the price elasticity of multifamily housing water demand is paramount for water planners in order to properly manage water use in the fast growing intensive housing developments in urban areas. This study investigates both the long-term and short-term price elasticities of water demand in the residential apartments in Auckland central city. Using 6 years of monthly time series data, the price elasticities were estimated through cointegration and error correction methods. The results showed that the price elasticities of water demand were ?0.14 and ?0.12 in the short term and the long term, respectively. The price is inelastic yet negative and statistically significant, thus it can play a role in demand management.