POSSIBILITIES AND PROBLEMS OF RECONCILIATION OF THE SNA AND THE MPS

This paper reviews the underlying concepts and definitions of SNA and MPS in order to identify those areas where the differences in the content or classifications of the corresponding aggregates of these systems of national accounting can be eliminated or reduced in the course of the present or the future work on the revision of both SNA and MPS. This will bring the systems nearer to each other and improve international comparability of national income data. In cases where such a reconciliation is not feasible, the introduction of certain modifications or clarifications in the selected sections of SNA and/or MPS will be a useful step.
Pursuing this objective, the paper introduces the following classification of the intersystem differences:
—differences in the fundamental concepts and definitions;
—differences caused by the peculiarities in the
—institutional set up;
—so called "incidental" differences.
On examining the above classification the paper comes to the conclusion that each group requires its own approach. The second conclusion is that possibilities for reducing intersystem differences are more promising in the case of the third group.
The paper uses the simplified MPS matrix in order to demonstrate the usefulness of certain modifications in the MPS classifications. These modifications do not imply any deviations from the fundamental concepts and yet they could facilitate international comparability.
The paper also discusses certain modifications (or clarifications) concerning some aggregates which could be useful in the context of international comparisons.     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTIVITY IN SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1939–1963

This paper examines differentials in output, employment and productivity across seventeen service industries in the United States from 1939 to 1963. Included are 9 retail trades and 8 services mostly from the personal service group. The industries chosen were those for which it was possible to obtain from available data reasonably comparable measures of output and input for selected years since 1939. Also, they are industries for which it is possible to calculate a measure of real output that is not based on labor input.
Sixteen of the industries show positive rates of change of real output per man. Thus there appears to be no basis for assuming that productivity cannot or does not increase in industries providing services. However, the rate of increase for the group as a whole was not as rapid as in manufacturing or in goods production as a whole.
The data for the seventeen industries give strong support to the hypothesis of a positive correlation between industry rates of growth and rates of change of productivity. The correlations are of the same order of magnitude as those found by other investigators in studies of manufacturing industries.
The coefficient of correlation between growth of output per man and growth of output is .93; between growth of output per man and growth of employment it is .54 for 1939–1963. The comparable coefficients for the 1948–1963 period are .70 and .13.
The results also parallel those reported for manufacturing in one other respect, namely, the absence of any correlation between changes in output per man and changes in compensation per man.
The paper concludes with a discussion of the problems encountered in measuring changes in real output in these industries and presents some alternative estimates based on different concepts and different sources.     

INPUT/OUTPUT ANALYSIS—AN APPRAISAL IN THE CONTEXT OF AS YET AN UNFINISHED EXPERIMENT IN KENYA

The paper discusses the relevance of input/output tables as a tool for economic analysis and planning in developing countries. It contends that this is so only to the extent that the input out-put tables enable consistency of production accounts to be verified while providing a suitable basis for macro projections at the same time. As a by-product, such input out put tables, the paper adds, also provide a convenient framework for estimating the needs for extensions and improvements in basic statistics.
All these requirements, it is stated, can be fulfilled by a relatively aggregated format of an input/output table—which some of the developing countries are in a position to compile. However, the paper states, it is feared that the case for input/output analysis is not based on these requirements. The main force of arguments is in fact based on the uses of input/output tables for more detailed sectoral analysis and projections. The current state of basic statistics on some key sectors, it is stated, is not sufficiently sound to yield an end-product which is reliable. In the case of sectors where this is so the input/output analysis is not relevant either because of concentration of production in a relatively few establishments or because of limited amount of inter-sectoral interaction. It is further felt that if such arguments were to be accepted by developing countries the result would be a distorted disposition of statistical resources. Immediate needs of the developing countries require concentration of effort in development of more reliable and relevant series on basic statistics.     

Be productive or face decline. On the sources and determinants of output growth in Italian manufacturing firms

This article investigates the sources and determinants of output growth of Italian manufacturing firms. Applying stochastic frontier techniques, we decompose output growth into factor accumulation and TFP growth for the period 1998–2003. TFP growth is further decomposed into technological change, efficiency change and scale effects. Two key results emerge from the analysis. After confirming that both input accumulation and TFP growth are important in explaining output growth, we show that efficiency change (technological catch-up) is the most significant component of TFP growth in explaining output growth distribution. Furthermore, using a specific model of the asymmetric error component, we find that R&D spillovers, banking efficiency and public infrastructures have statistically significant and economically relevant effects on technological catch-up.     

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES: TESTS OF STANDARD ASSUMPTIONS

In this paper we use an input-output framework to examine two criticisms of standard measures of total factor productivity. These criticisms are (1) that the contribution of capital to productivity growth is underestimated, and (2) that the use of cost shares to weigh factor input contribution is questionable. Using various vertically integrated productivity measures we find that capital's productivity contribution is underestimated in the neoclassical formulation. We also find that in a Pasinetti-Rymes growth model, factor shares do not approximate output elasticities. We conclude that the argument made by Pasinetti, Rymes, and others is supported, that in long-run productivity analysis capital should not be treated as a primary input, but should be measured as an intermediate, produced input.     

INDUSTRIAL AND AGGREGATE MEASURES OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CHINA, 1982–2000

We estimate productivity growth for 33 industries covering the entire Chinese economy using a time series of input–output tables covering 1982–2000. Capital input is measured using detailed investment data by asset and labor input uses demographic information from household surveys. We find a wide range of productivity performance at the industry level. We then show how these industry growth accounts may be consistently aggregated to deliver a decomposition of aggregate GDP growth. For the 1982–2000 period aggregate TFP growth was 2.5 percent per year; decelerating from a rapid rate in the early 1980s to negative growth during 1994–2000. The main source of growth during the 1982–2000 period was capital accumulation, with a small negative contribution from the reallocation of factors across industries.     

CAN A MANUFACTURED GOOD CEASE TO BE A MANUFACTURED GOOD MERELY BY CROSSING A NATIONAL FRONTIER?

While economists often stress the importance of increasing developing countries' production and exports of manufactures, there are major inconsistencies in the definitions of 'manufactures' employed by national and international agencies. Specifically, developed and developing countries' production data is generally compiled using a far broader definition of manufactures than is employed for trade statistics. This limits the analytical utility of the output and trade data since they are not on a comparable base. An additional problem is that international agencies also employ different definitions of manufactures when compiling trade statistics. For some countries these definitional changes produce major differences in the value and share of manufactures exports and imports.
This study attempts to assess the analytical implications of six alternative definitions by comparing results when each is used to tabulate the 'manufactures' exports of 72 developing countries. The results show that the different definitions result in a discrepancy of $60 billion in developing countries manufactures exports. Sensitivity tests show that five or six products are responsible for the major discrepancies, with the key item being refined petroleum (SITC 332). These items are included in the UNIDO (trade) and most agencies output definitions, but are excluded from the trade definition used by UNCTAD, World Bank, and GATT.
The influence of the alternative definitions on some established country classifications, including UNCTAD's 'major exporters of manufactures', are examined. The results show that this country classification is out of date due to major shifts in the relative importance of individual exporters in the 1980s. However, even with the most recent trade statistics there would be important differences in 'major' or 'fast growing' exporters under alternative definitions of manufactured goods.     

我国农村居民收入增长来源的实证分析

长期以来,一方面,我国农村居民收入增长缓慢,而另一方面,国家支农政策不断出台,哺农力度持续加强。为解释这一现象,本文基于前期研究所构建的收入函数模型,对1985—2002年我国农村居民收入增长的来源进行了分解。结果表明:工业化是对农村居民收入增长贡献最大的因素;物质资本的高投入并没有带来收入的高增长;政府的政策效应正通过土地的产出增长显现出来;人力资本对农村居民收入增长的贡献率尽管位居第二,但其边际贡献率在所有要素中最高,并呈上升趋势,这意味着人力资本在不久的将来有可能成为对农村居民收入增长贡献最大的因素。     

长三角服务贸易选择分析过程研究

首先阐述服务贸易的模式及分类并对服务贸易的各分类进行解释接着指出长三角服务贸易发展趋势及存在问题;其次分析了中国服务贸易的进出口情况,并对中国服务贸易的分类进行进出口潜力判断,主要是为了估算长三角服务贸易潜力,并与长三角服务贸易潜力进行对比分析。最后确定长三角服务贸易发展的侧重点。     

Allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input–output analysis

We present and discuss a method that allows the disaggregation of national Ecological Footprints by economic sector, detailed final demand category, sub-national area or socio-economic group. This is done by combining existing National Footprint Accounts with input–output analysis. Calculations in the empirical part are carried out by using supply and use tables for the United Kingdom, covering the reporting period 2000. Ecological Footprints are allocated to detailed household consumption activities following the COICOP classification system and to a detailed breakdown of capital investment. The method presented enables the calculation of comparable Ecological Footprints on all sub-national levels and for different socio-economic groups. The novelty of the approach lies in the use of input–output analysis to re-allocate existing Footprint accounts, in the detail of disaggregation by consumption category and in the expanded use of household expenditure data. This extends the potential for applications of the Ecological Footprint concept and helps to inform scenarios, policies and strategies on sustainable consumption. The method described in this paper can be applied to every country for which a National Footprint Account exists and where appropriate economic and environmental accounts are available. The approach helps to save time in data collection and improves the consistency between Ecological Footprint estimates for a particular human society from different researchers. For these reasons, the suggested methodology includes crucial steps on the way towards a standardisation of Ecological Footprint accounts.     

Education production efficiency: Evidence from Brazilian universities

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the efficiency of higher education institutions in Brazil with emphasis on its determinants, taking particularly into account the relative efficiency of public and private institutions on the application of their resources. The availability of scores in standardized tests for Brazilian universities helps a lot with this task since they provide a widely accepted output measure. The difference between the scores of last-year and first-year students in ENADE is used to measure performance. There exists an entrance exam in Brazilian universities where they can screen out their students. Therefore we believe that students' characteristics should be considered a non-discretionary input and consequently explain the output. This specification implies that public institutions are more inefficient than private ones.     

Estimating total factor productivity growth in Singapore at sectoral level using data envelopment analysis

Trends in total factor productivity growth (TFPG) are examined in the ten major sectors of Singapore. Data are drawn from the Yearbook of Statistics, Singapore, (various issues) and Economic Survey of Singapore series ranging from the year 1985 to 2000. Due to the heterogeneous characteristic of each sector and non-availability of reliable input price data, this study uses a non-parametric, frontier methodology known as data envelopment analysis (DEA) to obtain the Malmquist Productivity Index at the sectoral level. The results can help Singapore identify the ‘best practice' sector and laggards in three aspects: efficiency change, technical change and TFPG, which is the qualitative productivity improvements needed for long-term economic growth. The three sets of productivity estimates are adjusted for effects of inflation and business cycles so that they are more reliable for policy implications. This exercise will provide a platform for more detailed study on the determinants of TFP growth in different sectors and at the firm level in Singapore.     

Declining output growth volatility: A sectoral decomposition

A decomposition of the U.S. aggregate output growth volatility using two-digit industry-level data shows that more than 60% of the post-1983 reduction in aggregate output growth volatility is attributed to the lowered comovement in total factor productivity (TFP) growth between industries. In contrast, stabilized input and TFP growths within an industry contribute little.     

A decomposition of the predictive content of the term structure for output growth in Canada

The purpose of this study is to identify the underlying economic disturbances that drive the predictive content of the term structure for future output growth and those that may distort its information content. The study uses a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model of a small and open economy for Canada that takes into account its relationship with financial markets in the USA and that Canada is a relatively large exporter of commodities. The model is used to decompose the sources of the variation of the slope of the yield curve and the correlation between the term spread and output growth. Monetary policy disturbances in both Canada and the USA, as well as short-term interest rates, are found to trigger excessive volatility in short-term rates and the term spread that do not contribute to the predictive content of the term spread for future output growth at horizons relevant for monetary policy analysis. However, innovations in output growth, inflation and other macroeconomic variables do not distort the forecast power of the term spread. Unlike the evidence for the USA, disturbances in nominal long-term yields are found to contribute about the same amount to the predictive content of the term spread as unexpected movements in monetary policy.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Dispersed consumption versus compressed output: Assessing the sectoral effects of a pandemic

I process credit-card consumption data through an input–output model of sectoral linkages to impute the sector-level output responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. The sector-level consumption responses are highly dispersed and even positive for some. Yet, all sectors suffer from output losses. Production of intermediate goods stabilises output. Consequently, the sectoral dispersion of final consumption is higher than the sectoral dispersion of output produced. Sectors that provide intermediate goods are affected less by the pandemic. Many service sectors face the largest losses in output since they depend the most on final consumption.     

中国中小板上市公司产业创新的绩效研究

创新是经济增长的真正源泉,而产业创新是技术创新、产品创新、市场创新等的系统集成,是国家竞争力的基本决定因素。本文构建了包括创新外溢效应、创新投入、创新产出和产业效应等变量的分析框架,通过对中国中小板上市公司2006、2007、2008年的创新活动调查分析,检验了创新绩效与上述因子之间的关系。研究表明:企业绩效与创新投入、创新产出呈现显著的正相关性,而与创新环境与行业背景如政府支持力度和创新机遇等之间没有显著相关性甚至呈负相关,与外溢效应呈显著的负相关性,与创新人力资本投入、公司年龄、公司Q值也呈现负相关关系。     

Decomposing growth in revenues and costs into price,quantity and total factor productivity contributions

This article employs the superlative Fisher and Törnqvist indexes for exact decomposition of growth in nominal revenues and costs. The findings confirm the well-known result that these indexes very closely approximate each other, implying that the mathematically simpler and computationally easier Törnqvist is the more practicable index. Moreover, this article's nominal growth decomposition yields all the results from the more common real growth decomposition and is also more informative for policy purposes. Application to the US agricultural sector during 1948–2001 shows that of the 3.31% average annual growth in revenues, TFP growth contributed 1.90 percentage points (pct. pts.); growth in output prices added 1.43 pct. pts.; while growth in input quantities contributed?–?0.02 pct. pts. (i.e. fewer inputs). Therefore, real output growth (or revenue growth less output price growth) was 1.88 pct. pts., revealing that TFP's 1.90 pct. pts. growth contribution was fully responsible for real output growth with fewer inputs. Since revenues measure incomes, these results suggest that policy should focus more on measures to foster TFP growth than on specific price or quantity instruments to enhance income growth.     

Classification of natural language messages using a coordination game

The role of natural language communication in economic exchange has been the focus of substantial experimental analysis. Recently, scholars have taken the important step of investigating whether certain types of communication (e.g., promises) might affect decisions differently than other types of communication. This requires classifying natural language messages. Unfortunately, no broadly-accepted method is available for this purpose. We here describe a coordination game for classification of natural language messages. The game is similar in spirit to the “ESP” game that has proven successful for the classification of tens of millions of internet images. We compare our approach to self-classification as well as to classifications based on a standard content analysis. We argue that our classification game has advantages over those alternative approaches, and that these advantages might stem from the salient rewards earned by our game’s participants.