Tackle China's Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening Up: Macroeconomic Outlook,Policy Simulations,and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018-2019)

Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China's economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in China's macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4%(6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for China's transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth.     

Research on the exports trade of Shandong agricultural products

This paper analyses the internal problems and external constraints against the further development of exports trade of Shandong agricultural products. The countermeasures in solving those problems and constraints are recommended to ensure a sustainable development of Shandong regional agricultural products exports.     

The Accounting Reform in the Brussels-capital Region： New Tool for Financial Analysis

In the last 20 years, public administrations in Belgium have completely reformed their accounting systems. The new system consists in combining double-entry general accounting with budgetary accounting, which is traditional in the public sector. The accounting reform of 2003 marks a turning point in the history of accounting of the federal State and federated entities （regions and communities）. The Brussels-capital region is the first federated entity to embark on the adventure and implement the new accounting system in 2006. The aim of this article is to introduce the legislative framework and the different implementation steps of the accounting reform in the Brussels-capital region and to provide a financial analysis of the region. The objective is to see if the region has a good financial situation. To do this, this paper analyses the data from the balance sheet and the income statements from 2008 to 2011. On one hand, it analyzes the evolution of the region＇s different results; and on the other hand, it presents different financial ratios. It also analyzes the evolution of the regional debt. This paper concludes that, although expenses and the debt are increasing, the situation of the region is not worrying, because of good budgetary performances, sophisticated financial management, and law loans rates. Even if the results of the analysis don＇t have to be interpreted as the same way as for a private company, the annual accounts provide interesting information that can be used to improve public finance.     

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.     

Analysis on financing, investing and operating activities of Target Corporation

The paper analyzes the financing activity, investing activity and operating activity of Target Corporation by comparing with other companies in the same industry. The analysis shows that Target overall is better at meeting it in short-term obligations as well as earning money for its investors. Target is a safe and consistent investment. The company should pay attention to interest rate changes because the company＇s majority of financing charges are based on floating-rate debt obligations.     

Modeling the growth and policy implications of Global System for Mobile Telecommunication （GSM） in Nigeria

This paper investigated the growth and policy implications of Global System for Mobile Communication in Nigeria. Stochastic economic modeling was used to analyze Nigeria＇s time series data. The models were adjudged reliable before they were used. The components of the model were defined and a prior expectation of the relationship among the variables explained for the purpose of giving the reviewers and users a deep insight into the phenomenon under study. The secondary data used for the study were processed using the E-View for windows electronic packages. The outcome of the empirical and stochastic investigations shows that Global System for Mobile Communication has a positive relationship with output growth in Nigeria. The impact is of a higher magnitude. The usage of Global System for Mobile Telecommunication led to 17 percent rise in the output growth. The findings suggest the need for the Nigerian Communication Commission （NCC） and the federal government of Nigeria to expand tele-density and directly make telephone communications cheap and accessible. To achieve this goal, more licenses should be given to GSM operators in order to allow for healthy competition among them. This will lead to improved quality of services, quality of product and consequently sustain the growth and development of the country.     

The effect of leadership on performance management, good governance, internal and external satisfaction in study programs

Rapid changes in business environment have increased the needs of graduates who have capabilities of anticipating to the changes. The faculty, especially at the level of study program, has an important role in affecting the quality of graduates, because the study program is the core element in the higher education institution which involves directly in planning, organizing, executing and controlling the teaching and learning activities. This dissertation is to examine the effect of leadership on performance management and good governance, and also to examine the effect of performance management and good governance on internal and external satisfaction. The data for this causal research is collected by questionnaire. Unit of analysis in this research is all study programs in all accredited faculty of economics in East Java. The respondents are academic staffs, students and administrative staffs in the study program. There were 83 of 125 accredited study program which has been successfully contacted and agreed to participate in the research. There were 900 students and 285 academic staffs filling up the questionnaires. The data analysis is conducted by Path Analysis with the SPSS 11.5 version software to measure construct validity and reliability and to test causal relationships between variables in the model. The findings of the research showed that： （1） Leadership affects performance management significantly; （2） Leadership affects good governance significantly; （3） Leadership affects internal satisfaction significantly; （4） Performance management affects internal satisfaction; （5） Good governance significantly affects external satisfaction; （6） Internal satisfaction does not affect external satisfaction. Based on the findings in this research, it is suggested that the study programs take into account the implementation of performance management in order to undertake improvement continuously considering that performance management supports the quality assurance activity. It is also suggested that the faculty implements good governance formally. However, the implementation should empower the study program to undertake the improvement.     

Strategic group theory： A customer-oriented view

Barney and Hoskisson （1990） argue that the strategic group research has neither established the existence of strategic groups, nor their relationship to firm performance. The primary reason behind the unsatisfactory results is the lack of a theoretical framework： what strategic variables to include in the analysis and their relative importance; the definition of an industry, and how to make competitive strategy operational. First, the author presents a customer-oriented theory of management which submits that, like Procter and Gamble, understanding customers should be the primary focus of a business. Second, the author proposes an integrated approach to competitive strategy. Because customer-perceived quality is far more critical to long-term success than any other factor, it should be the centerpiece of competitive strategy. The author suggests that competitive strategy should be divided in two interdependent dimensions： external and internal. It is the external strategy that should be considered the primary dimension because it reflects the customers＇ perspective, and provides a sense of direction regarding how the internal resources should be used. Next, the author presents an operational framework of competitive strategy which proposes that the best route to market share leadership in consumer markets is competing in the mid-price segment, offering superior quality compared to competition at a somewhat higher price： （1） to maintain an image of quality, and （2） to ensure that the strategy is profitable and sustainable. Finally, the author offers a framework of business or industry definition that extends Abell＇s （1980） three dimensions to seven. He suggests that an integrated approach to market segmentation provides the foundation for conducting strategic group analysis in consumer markets. So, in strategic group research, we need a bottom-up approach that begins with a product-market segment. In each product market, real competition occurs at the brand level. This is the ground where actual competitive wars are fought, and this is where the rich dynamics of competition often come to light.     

Research on low-carbon development of electric power industry: from the perspectives of public policy

It is a fundamental way to achieve sustainable development and inclusive growth that China takes the low-carbon development path.And low-carbon development is an effective way to respond to many threats,including global climate anomalies,environmental degradation,and energy shortage.Low-carbon economy is policy economy to a large extent.Although the external environment demands low-carbon development of electric power industry,enterprises lack intrinsic motivation.Electric power industry is the pillar industry of China,and is one of the key industries for China＇s low-carbon development.The government needs to ensure its dominant position in the low-carbon development of electric power industry,and reform the government performance management system and promote the planning and management of electric power industry through appropriate public policy,in order to adjust the structure of the electric power industry and take a low-carbon development road with Chinese characteristics.     

A model of techno-economic evaluation for eco-industrial park project

An eco-industrial park or estate is a community of manufactaring and service businesses located together on a common property. The goat of ElP is to create a win-win harmonious development aspect of ecooomic development and environmental protection. This paper emphasizes that the external .effect of an EIP is its main characteristic of technoeconomic evaluation for eco-industrial park project. From the view of the property, rights, the EIP＇s product is typicalty public-private. The government should take some inca.rares for the quantitative analysis on ecological positive externalities of the enterprises in EIP, and also should adopt Coase＇s Theorem, which supports that the market transaction is the best way to deal with positive externalities （external economics or diseconoraics）, or Pigou＇s Theorem, which holds that the government anti-positive externalities programs are the best way to cope with positive externalities, to internalize the EIP＇s external effects, which is also a fundamental tool to encourage investors to actively invest in EIP projects, Furthermore. this paper thinks that the EIP ＇s income should be equal to the income of staple products of the private property, and that of its by-products of the public property. According to this principle, this paper has put forward three major indicators, net present value （NPV）, internal rate of renan （IRR）, and investment repayment period （IRP）, which are also extensively used indicators in ardinary project techno-economic evaluation model to evaluate EIP technoeconomic effects. Theoretically, the indicatory not only can be used in EIP project evaluation, but also can provide a quantitative measure toot for the government to support EIP＇s construction to the maximum. In the end. a case is analyzed.     

The possible effects on the future management of local Italian authorities following the use of financial derivative instruments

The appeal from municipalities, provinces and regions to financial derivative instruments is tied to the need of overcoming the situations in a state of urgency inherent in a balance. On average, one local Italian authority in twenty has decided to underwrite a derivative product, giving life to a number of contracts that had a value of over 35 billion euro with an average value of 6.5 million for each contract until 2007. The boom of swaps has, since 2000 on, experienced a peak period from 2003 to the end of 2005, in which the Euribor rate touched a very low level, maintained itself for long periods at around 2% and fallen in some cases even under this value. Many of the contracts completed before 2006, which link the debt of local authorities to variable rates, but also many of those completed from 2006 onwards that moved debt onto fixed rate, which are now a source of loss for the balance of local authorities that have underwritten them. In the 2002-2008 period, the number of the stipulation of contracts local authorities reported to the Ministry of Economy and Finance is about 900, corresponding to more or less 150 per year, which affected 18 regions, 44 provinces, 532 municipalities and 4 mountain commtmities, for a total of 594 authorities. Therefore, the local authorities have approached the derivative instruments in an often approximate way without a real awareness, both for the conditions that were being negotiated and the effects that they would have produced in perspective. The purpose of this work is to highlight the consequences of the use of derivative instruments on the future management of local authorities.     

Green technical innovation, environmental expenditure, and the environmental Kuznets curve： a dynamic s model

The relationship between the emission of pollutant and economic growth has attracted a lot of attention in the environmental debate of the recent decades. Based on some theoretical and empirical research on environmental Kuznets curve （EKC）, this paper introduces the environmental technical innovation and environmental investment into Salow growth model to discuss the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission of pollutant By the dynamic simulation and parameters analysis, the results of the model indicate： （1） when ＂green＂ technical progress and environmental investment are fixed, the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission shows the linear relationship; （2） ＂green＂ technical progress can lead to the positive growth rates with a decreasing level of emission, which is compatible with an EKC; （3） the proportion of the environmental investment can lead the different growth rates and level of emission. These results can explain that developing countries are ＂too poor to be green＂.     

Quest beyond the Middle Income Status

Over a period of three decades from 1980 to 2010, China, the world＇s most populous country with one-fifth of the global population, managed to grow its real GDP by almost ten percent per annum, or expand the size of its economy by more than seventeen fold. The persistent hyper economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions of people from poverty and developed the country from one of the world＇s poorest economies to a global economic powerhouse and manufacturing base. The prolonged economic growth with such speed and scale is unprecedented in human history.     

The Motivation Factors of Sales Personnel in Financial Institutions

The motivation is an employee＇s internal relationship in the form of behaviour directed towards a specific goal and is manifested as an important factor for overall organisation performance. The goal of any business is to motivate employees to perform work with the maximum results. The work motivation is complex and dynamic feature of human resources and influences to motivation are very broad and diverse. The material forms of motivation are different compensation that employees receive for their work in the company. They appear in the financial and non-financial forms （paid or in the form of various services）. The goal of this research is to identify the main factors of human resources motivation in financial institutions （banks）. The questionnaire will be used as a research instrument and consists of two parts. The first part of the questionnaire will focus on socio-demographic characteristics and the second part concentrates on the motivation variables of material and immaterial character. Applying adequate knowledge discovery research methods will be identified as the main motivation components of selling persons in financial institutions.     

Coal price fluctuations and the impact on financial risk Evidence from China＇s coal listed companies

With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China＇s coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.     

Effect of total resource allocation effect and economic growth：Chinese experience of 1978-2004

The analytical method of total resource reallocation effect is an evolution of the analytical method of the factors of economic growth. Since the marketization reform in China in 1978, market mechanism has played a more and more important role in resource allocation, and Chinese economy has developed greatly, which is called ＂the Chinese Miracle＂. This paper analyzes the economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004 with the analytical method of total resource reallocation effect. The result shows that the annual growth rate of total resource reallocation effect was 0.2%, which was 5.1% of the comprehensive productivity and 0.21% of the gross output growth, i.e. the total resource allocation played a weak role in the economic growth in China. When analyzing it in Chenery＇s multinational model, we find that Chinese comprehensive productivity growth rate was higher than that in all the income phases of the model, but the total resource allocation effect was obviously lower than that in all the income phases of the model. It indicates that the total resource allocation in China has a great potential, and that to accelerate marketization reform is one of the important issues for Chinese economic development.     

ARDL Investigation of Macroeconomic Mechanisms on ASEAN-5 Stock Earnings Equation

The objective of Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） investigation of macroeconomic mechanisms on ASEAN-5 stock earnings equation can contribute to analyzing and demonstrating macroeconomic forces acting a statistically and economically significant effect on rate of return of securities for a given time through the application of the ARDL approach to cointegration when the variables are mixed degrees of integration in cointegrated time series, i.e. I（0） and I（1）. This results in a long-run or a short-run relationship between macroeconomic force acting for a given time affecting 24 quarterly rates of return for listed companies in Information and Communication Technologies OCT） sector of Stock Exchange of Thailand （SET）, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index （KLSE） index （Malaysia）, Financial Times Share Index （FTSI）, Philippine Stock Exchange （PSE）, and Jakarta Composite Index （JKSE） （Indonesia）. The impulses of three ASEAN macroeconomic forces---GDPt, EXt, and INTt acting for a given time influence the earnings of selected 23 1CT returns for listed companies on both domestic investments and outsider investments in the same period. This paper has investigated how other-concerning macroeconomic force acting might interrelate with rate of return of securities in the ICT sector, debt and financial innovations, in line with some significant formalized facts. The funding of capital inflow in part of ICT securities was statistically globally significant to recognize significant achievement in ICT specific pathways to distinction as the science of accomplishment. The public sector performing as a key purchaser of ICT security solutions related to integrate the ASEAN exchange members into modern capitalization can lead to adverse effects, such as risky investment-hub interventions due to the mixing financial systems in three ASEAN regional integrations through investments.     

Intermediate Inputs and External Economies

Is the degree of external economies （at the industry level） higher than the degree of internal increasing returns （at the firm level）？ If so, what is the exact source of this difference？ In the general equilibrium model in which firms producing final goods choose the degree of specialization of their technologies, external economies arise from the usage of intermediate inputs and the existence of internal increasing returns. It is frequently assumed that increasing returns are absent at the firm level while present at the industry level. In this model, the existence of increasing returns at the form level is necessary for the existence of external economies at the industry level. We show that the degree of external economies increases with the level of linkage effects. However, a higher linkage effect does not always lead firms to choose more specialized technologies.     

烟台地区耕地资源态势及宏观驱动力研究

According to the statistics of cultivated land in Yantai area during the Reform and Opening-up over the past 20 years and with the detailed survey and changing data of land use during the recent live years, this paper reveals the basic characteristics of the resource utilization, the basic process of the changes, regional differences, and current direction of cultivated land In addition, this paper makes a preliminary research on the major driving factors and the influence mechanism for the changes in the cultivated land area. and reaches the following conclasions： （1） There was a trend of obvious fluctuant decrease in cultivated laud area during the past 20 years. The changes of cultivated land have undergone the process - slow decrease,steep decrease, slow decrease. And there were three peak periods of cultivated land loss around 1985. 1987-1996 and 1991-1993 respectively （2） The decreased cultivated land was mainly converted into land for industry and mining, residential area. and all kinds of traffic and orchards. The increase of cultivated land mainly came from exploitation and land and arrangement and reclamation of industry and mining land （3） The economic development. population growth and policy are the dominant macro-driving factors for the decrease of cultivated land area in Yantai. The obvious sudden changes during the change process of cultivated land acreage are relevant to the national macro.policies background The rapid decrease of cnltivated land area is synchronous with the overheated economic growth resulting from the direct investment in fixed assets. Spatial distribution of the decrease in cultivated land is congruous with the differences in speed and the scale of economic growth between the different regions of Yantai area. Furthermore. the decrease in cultivated land caused by population increase cannot be ignored.     

Pattem and mechanism of urban spatial growth in Nanjing City, 1979-2007

Urban spatial growth has become a hot topic of geographic science and urban research. Exploring the patterns and mechanisms of urban growth is the prerequisite to understand the urbanization process of China. The paper provides a spatial analysis method of using Remote Sensing （RS） and Geographic Information System （GIS）. and presents major patterns and mechanisms of urban spatial growth during the period from 1979 to 2007 in Nanjing City. Firstly, the paper introohwes the data, study area and methodology of the research. Then. the patterns of urban spatial growth are identified Subsequently, the main mechanisms of urban spatial growth are analyzed Finally some conclusions are drawn definitely. The features of urban spatial growth in Nanjing are as follows： during 1979-1988, urban spatial growth of each district was stow. and the inner growth was in excess of suburban growth; during the period of 1988-2000. urban growth of suburban was in excess of inner city. the most insensitive growth appeared in the southeast, and the growth of each aspect was relatively insensitive expect ecst and west; during the period of 2000-2007, urban growth of suburban was violent, the most insensitive growth appeared in the southeast. and the urban growth of each direction was insensitive except the west. The mechanisms of urban spatial growth are complex, the main ones of which are social and economic development. Besides. the guiding of urban planning and influence of urban spatial structure are quite obvious.