A technology replacement model with variable market potential — An empirical study of CRT and LCD TV

The rapidly changing economic environment and increasingly fierce competition indicate that companies must innovate in both their products and marketing strategies if they are to continue to flourish. Specifically, the ability to accurately predict the demand for products is crucial when firms decide to allocate their resources, especially in the fast moving high technology industries, where there is very high investment in R&D and production facilities. This study establishes a forecast model for technology replacement based on the diffusion model with population growth used for the variable market potential. The proposed model is then applied to investigate the CRT and LCD TV market.The results suggest that the new model is more accurate than the constant market potential model in fitting and forecasting performance. Consumers who purchase a TV for the first time are likely more attracted to LCD TV rather than CRT TV. As for those individuals who already own a CRT TV, the attraction is not strong enough to encourage them to replace their current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. Moreover, it is noted that the falling price of LCD TV is an essential factor in encouraging purchases.     

Combining conjoint analysis,scenario analysis,the Delphi method,and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan's TV market

In science and technology industries, innovative products are launched rapidly, making the lifecycle of new products ever shorter. Thus, it is important that companies understand consumers' needs and consider expert opinion when analyzing the development of a new technology. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives with regard to the development of a new product. Therefore, this research combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the Delphi method with the innovative diffusion model to analyze the development of Taiwan's TV market over the next 10 years. The results show that the outlook for demand for light-emitting diode (LED) TVs in Taiwan is very optimistic; sales of LED TVs will surpass sales of liquid crystal display TVs in 2015 in the optimistic scenario and in 2017 in the most likely scenario.     

Forecasting future demand for large-screen television sets using conjoint analysis with diffusion model

The methodological framework proposed in this paper addresses two limitations of the basic Bass diffusion model: that it does not reflect competition among products nor does it forecast demand for products that do not exist in the marketplace. The model consists of four steps. First, to investigate consumer preferences for product attributes, we use conjoint analysis to estimate the utility function of consumers. Next we estimate the dynamic price function of each competing product to reflect technological changes and the evolving market environment. Then we derive dynamic utility function by combining the static utility function and the price function. Finally, we forecast the sales of each product using estimated market share and sales data for each period, which are derived from the dynamic utility function and from the Bass diffusion model, respectively.We apply this model to South Korea's market for large-screen televisions. The results show that (1) consumers are sensitive to picture resolution and cost and (2) in the near future, should the market see the introduction of liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs with screens larger than 50 inches, the high resolution and steep price drop of LCD will lead LCD TVs to capture a larger market share than TVs with other display types. Finally, our results show that TVs with 40-inch screens are preferred over TVs with larger screens.     

中国手机电视的运营模式策略探析

中国手机电视业务的出现，加剧了手机发挥效用的环境条件的复杂性。当前中国手机电视运营遇到的问题主要有政策管制缺位及政策支持不力、手机电视接收终端技术不成熟、受众享用成本高、手机电视服务市场缺乏成熟的合作模式、手机电视节目内容严重匮乏、公共手机电视缺位等。政府应对手机电视业务给予政策支持。政府发展公共手机电视，市场发展商业性手机电视，并从传输网络、电视内容、收费模式等方面提出手机电视运营模式的发展方向。     

双寡头市场中电视媒体平台的质量水平及定价策略研究

本文以电视媒体平台为例,以竞争平台企业如何确定平台质量水平为出发点,建立了双寡头双边市场竞争模型,旨在给出双边市场价格结构的参考。本文主要运用完全信息静态博弈收益矩阵,试图找到纳什均衡。分析可得,媒体平台企业的主要收入来自于广告,其努力寻求更广泛的观众是为了拥有更多的广告收入。媒体平台企业为了吸引更多的广告商,最终会选择提高平台质量水平。     

Welfare gain from quality and price development in the Japan’s LCD TV market

We estimate the welfare gain from innovations in the LCD TVs that prevailed during the period 2005–2007 in Japan, via consumer surplus that we measure with the aid of discrete choice methods, using market data obtained from an internet price comparison service (Kakaku.com). Further, by the measured implicit values of attributes, we evaluate in monetary terms, the qualitative transition embedded in the attributes through the iso-consumer surplus planes. We thereby disaggregate the welfare gain into the qualitative and the budgetary components, which we call the quality gain, and the budget gain, respectively. The estimates show, along with the evolved process of innovation, that the quality gain was in the order of 381 KJPY, while the budget gain was 94 KJPY negative, which gives about 287 KJPY of overall welfare gain per consumer, during the period.     

电视平台竞争:从免费模式到付费模式

本文建立了一个电视平台竞争的理论模型。电视台、厂商和观众之间通过一个三阶段博弈决定了电视台的广告数量、收视费用(付费模式下)和节目质量。研究表明:虽然付费模式下电视台向观众收取费用,但是节目质量仍可能低于免费模式并且总是低于社会最优水平。当单个广告给观众带来的干扰成本和电视平台之间差异程度都充分小或者都较大时,付费模式下的社会福利比免费模式下更高。     

Predicting the competitive relationships of industrial production between Taiwan and China using Lotka–Volterra model

This work is the first to apply Lotka–Volterra model combined with genetic algorithm (GA) to predict the production relationships of high-tech industry among different areas. Previous studies analysed the trade interdependency among various countries, but few studies have highlighted the quantitative evidence of production relationships. Thus, this study utilizes motherboard shipment volumes to predict the competitive relationships of industrial production on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Specifically, this work uses simultaneous non-linear least square regression in combination with GAs for numerical parameter optimization of the proposed Lotka–Volterra model. The results of parameter estimation reveal that shipment growth in China substantially promotes that in Taiwan, whereas the shipment growth in Taiwan curtails that in China. The standard deviation of the estimated parameters from the 3000 iterated simulations is small, confirming the reliability and stability of our parameter estimations. According to equilibrium analysis, the results of Lyapunov function prove that the shipments of China and Taiwan will reach a stable long-term equilibrium. The potential production from China will ultimately be nearly 16 times as large as that from Taiwan. Finally, the analytical results of forecast accuracy confirm that Lotka–Volterra model performs better than conventional S-curve diffusion model in predicting motherboard shipments.     

企业价值链与商业模式创新的路径关系——基于电视传媒企业的分析

本文针对中国电视传媒企业内容同质化严重问题,以国内21家电视传媒企业为样本进行电视传媒企业价值链与商业模式创新路径之间关系的实证研究,验证电视传媒企业价值链类型与商业模式创新路径之间存在着正向关联性。研究结果表明,电视传媒企业可以通过选择和构建不同类型的价值链,锁定核心价值环节进行相应的商业模式创新。     

Modelling the relationship between future energy intraday volatility and trading volume with wavelet

Although the energy and stock markets are both characterized by volatility and liquidity, and there has been substantial research to explore the relationship between volatility and trading volume (TV) in stock markets, few researchers have investigated this relationship in energy markets. Moreover, studies that have explored this association within energy markets did not describe its nature or impetus. To redress this oversight, we investigate this relationship using intraday data from the oil and gas markets – the most liquid energy markets in the world. In this way, the current article extends the previous studies through the use of a frequency approach to propose an original analysis of the relationship between volume and volatility. More specifically, we employ a continuous wavelet transform to identify the lead–lag phase between volatility and volume. This framework supplants usual time series modelling, as it uses a measure of coherence for different frequencies and time-scales to capture further changes and time variation in the volume–volatility relationship. Our results provide supportive evidence for the well-known positive relationship between realized volatility and TV, thereby supporting the mixture distribution hypothesis. In particular, our results show that volume causes volatility only during ‘turbulent times’, while volatility causes volume during ‘good times’. Furthermore, there is no relationship between volume and volatility in the long term, due to the absence of noise traders and liquidity traders in the long run. These findings are helpful for investors and policymakers as they contribute to better forecast the TV and price volatility during turbulent and calm periods and over several investment horizons.     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

The economics of TV tune-in

TV tune-in, namely the preview of forthcoming programs, is an important type of TV advertising. We examine TV tune-in as a continuous variable. First, tune-in can increase profits when TV stations are sufficiently differentiated and the market is partially covered. Second, tune-in crowds out program quality. Third, tune-in lowers advertisement supply. Further, tune-in can increase profits in a partially covered market if firms are sufficiently differentiated. Otherwise, it leads to low profits. We also identify the effects of tune-in on consumer surplus and social welfare and suggest that tune-in should be prohibited whenever it lowers program quality and social welfare.     

Competitive diffusion of personal computer shipments in Taiwan

In this work, we explore the innovative growth of personal computer (PC) shipments from Taiwan. Using a revised Lotka-Volterra model, we estimate marketing diffusion by considering competition between desktop computers (DTs) and notebook computers (NBs). The parameters in the Lotka-Volterra model are calibrated with realistic shipment data by using ordinary least square estimation. The time trajectories of DT and NB shipments are then obtained numerically. We analyze the dynamic process of competitive relationship between the shipments of DTs and NBs. Comparisons between the well-known Bass growth model and the revised Lotka-Volterra model are also drawn. In addition, we also make an equilibrium analysis to see the character of the corresponding equilibrium point. Our research shows that there exhibits a prey-predator relationship between DT and NB products from the viewpoint of ecology. In management implication, we show how the competing interplay among the three factors of natural growth, niche capacity and interaction drives the growth of products of DTs and NBs. We also find that there exists a stable equilibrium state showing the growth-decline-plateau type of product life cycle for both DT and NB products from Taiwan, and giving an interpretation of migrating their manufacturing operations to Mainland China.     

Profiling mobile TV adopters in college student populations of Korea

By profiling demographic characteristics, perceived general adoption attributes, perceived value-based adoption attributes, motivational needs, mass media use, and content interest, this exploratory study examines the nature of four categories of mobile TV adopters — current, potential, continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups. Despite the limited sample size (N = 214), there are some meaningful findings. First of all, the non-adoption rate of mobile TV of the continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups is higher than the adoption rate of the current and potential user groups. Less than half of the respondents (N = 34) who had used TV on a mobile device were unwilling to use it again in the next twelve months, and almost half of those (N = 102) did not have the intention of using it within the coming year. The results suggest that the discontinuous group seems to have been dissatisfied with the actual mobile TV use when compared with their expectations and evaluations, while the potential user group is more likely to have high expectations and positive evaluations before the adoption and use of mobile TV. All user groups were unwilling to pay the fee, despite the current and potential user groups perceiving the exceptional values. No differences were found in the personality trait of innovativeness and mass media use behaviors among the four groups.     

竞争力平价与人民币均衡汇率研究

传统的汇率决定理论认为，一国货币汇率的衡水平是由购买力平价、利率平价和货币相对供求等决定的。大多数实证研究表明，这些均衡汇率理论只是强调单一因素，同现实相距甚远。本文构建了多因素国际竞争力平价模型，认为均衡实际汇率随着国际竞争力的相对变化而变化，国际竞争力相对提高，该国货币升值，反之则反之。本文利用主成分分析法，从影响人民币汇率的多因素中构造国际竞争力这个指标，实证研究表明人民币实际有效汇率与国际竞争力之间存在协整关系，然后再基于这个协整关系式计算人民币的均衡实际有效汇率，并据以判断人民币汇率偏离均衡水平的程度。     

A graphic representation of the Nash and Lindahl equilibria in an economy with a public good

In an economy with a public good the noncooperative Nash equilibrium and the cooperative Lindahl equilibrium are represented graphically. The Nash equilibrium is shown to be non-optimal, while the Lindahl equilibrium is shown to be optimal. Simple stability analyses are undertaken. Finally, the two equilibria are compared. It appears that more public good will be allocated in the Lindahl than in the Nash equilibrium, and that in a sufficiently large economy a transition from a Nash to a Lindahl equilibrium will be advantageous for everyone.     

基于演化博弈论的农产品质量安全研究

首先对国内外将博弈理论用于农产品质量安全领域的研究成果进行回顾总结,指出大多研究都采用经典博弈理论的缺陷,尝试运用演化博弈理论深入探讨农产品供应链的策略空间以及演化趋势。通过农产品质量安全演化博弈模型的构建和分析,得出农产品供应链市场的演化相图以及在每一个平衡点的演化稳定特性,很好地揭示了农产品供应链的演化进程,为有效制定相关政策保障农产品质量安全提供了科学依据。     

结构性通货膨胀的一个基本理论分析框架——基于状态空间时变参数模型的实证

以实体经济的部门瓶颈制约模型、货币视角的资产市场均衡模型为基础构建了一个结构性通货膨胀理论分析框架,并利用状态空间时变参数模型计量方法进行了实证检验。结果显示,农业部门瓶颈制约明显,产品供给弹性低,当需求短期内增加,农业劳动力、农产品价格上涨的结构性通货膨胀特征明显;同时,当货币流动性出现过剩,充足的流动性会将结构性通货膨胀推向更高水平,国内货币流动性、外汇储备则起到推波助澜的作用。     

交易成本对易货经济的影响——瓦尔拉斯均衡“不成立”的一种情形

本文首先用一种新的解析几何方法在易货经济 (即两种商品的纯交换经济 )条件下的一般均衡框架下揭示了价格与消费者的马歇尔需求之间的函数关系。在此基础上 ,由个人承担的交易成本被直接置入。然后 ,本文证明 :如果交易成本的固定项不为零 ,供、求函数将不连续 ;如果同时有非无穷小比例的人口进行同步化决策 ,那么瓦尔拉斯均衡将会被破坏     

Learning by replicator and best-response: the importance of being indifferent

This paper compares two learning processes, namely those generated by replicator and best-response dynamics, from the point of view of the asymptotics of play. We base our study on the intersection of the basins of attraction of locally stable pure Nash equilibria for replicator and best-response dynamics. Local stability implies that the basin of attraction has positive measure but there are examples where the intersection of the basin of attraction for replicator and best-response dynamics is arbitrarily small. We provide conditions, involving the existence of an unstable interior Nash equilibrium, for the basins of attraction of any locally stable pure Nash equilibrium under replicator and best-response dynamics to intersect in a set of positive measure. Hence, for any choice of initial conditions in sets of positive measure, if a pure Nash equilibrium is locally stable, the outcome of learning under either procedure coincides. We provide examples illustrating the above, including some for which the basins of attraction exactly coincide for both learning dynamics. We explore the role that indifference sets play in the coincidence of the basins of attraction of the stable Nash equilibria.