Scenarios for a redistribution of unpaid work in the Netherlands

The consumer price index (CPI) is used in the United States to measure changes in the cost of living. Since the CPI is used to index the official U.S. poverty guidelines and to establish eligibility criteria for various public assistance programs, a change in the methodology used to calculate the CPI would impact the accuracy of poverty statistics and, more importantly, poor families' access to public assistance. Since the majority of these poor families are headed by women, the CPI becomes a critical issue for feminist economics. In December 1996 the United States Senate Finance Committee's Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index issued its final report which concluded that use of the consumer price index results in widespread substantial overindexing. This paper uses the basic needs budgets (BNB) to evaluate changes in the cost of living for low-income families. The author compares the cost of the BNBs for single-parent families in 1983 and 1996 and finds that the cost of the bundle of goods and services included in the BNBs has increased faster than the CPI. The author finds similar results for two-parent families.     

Using food prices and consumption to examine Chinese cost of living

This paper considers two approaches to examining potential bias in China's consumer price index: (i) inferring true changes in cost of living from consumer behaviour; and (ii) creating alternative price indices to compare with official indices. For (i), our semi‐parametric estimates agree with the recent finding of a large understatement in increases to the true cost of living. For (ii), we focus on food prices and explore potential causes of bias. We find some evidence of a new‐good bias. China's large‐scale migration also causes changes in the cost of living that are not reflected in the consumer price index.     

Output decline and recovery in the transiton economies: causes and social consequences1

This paper suggests that output in the transition economies of eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union is related to, firstly, macroeconomic stabilization, and secondly, the speed of transition. The statistical analysis suggests that those countries which have been most successful in reducing inflation have experienced a lower level of output decline and have been first to achieve recovery in real output. There is also strong evidence that the economies which have been boldest in adopting reforms have been most successful in limiting the fall in output and promoting growth. No support is found for the assertion that the faster the speed of transition the greater the adverse impact on basic social indicators, such as mortality rates.     

Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through

Recent research suggests that there has been a decline in the extent to which firms “pass-through” changes in exchange rates to prices. This paper provides further evidence in support of this claim. Additionally, it proposes an explanation for this phenomenon. The paper then presents empirical evidence of a structural break during the 1990s in the relationship between the real exchange rate and CPI inflation for a set of fourteen OECD countries. It is suggested that the recent reduction in the real exchange rate pass-through can in part be attributed to the low inflationary environment of the 1990s.     

消费者价格指数能反映生活成本吗 基于城镇各收入阶层食品生活成本估计

本文基于超级指数和可变偏好效用函数方法构建了1997-2011年中国城镇各收入阶层家庭食品消费生活成本指数,并在此基础上将各阶层生活成本指数与其消费者价格指数进行对比,检验消费者价格指数对生活成本的反映能力。样本期间内消费者价格指数与生活成本指数比较接近,可以较好地反映生活成本的变化。基于超级指数方法的结果显示,样本期间内替代偏差与家庭收入负相关,与通货膨胀正相关,而由于偏好改变所造成的偏差在绝对值水平上则与收入水平正相关。     

On the conversion of ruble trade flows into dollars

A simple approach is developed for analyzing the possible bias involved in converting CMEA countries' statistics on transferable ruble (TR) trade into dollars. This bias is a function of the degree of price distortion in TR trade and whether the conversion is made “backward” using the TR/dollar rate set by the CMEA, or “forward” using the country's official cross rate between the TR and the dollar. Illustrative calculations of conversion bias for the European members of the CMEA for 1983 show considerable differences in “forward” conversion bias among some of these countries, given identical hypothetical price distortions in each country's TR trade.     

Foreign output shock in small open economies: A welfare evaluation of monetary policy regimes

We examine the impact of negative foreign output shocks, which entail negative demand side effects by lowering exports and positive supply side effects by lowering oil prices, on the welfare of non-oil producing, small open economies under five exchange rate and monetary policy regimes. We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with parameter values calibrated for Hong Kong, Israel, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. We find that welfare levels among the five policy regimes depend on the economy's share of oil imports in world oil consumption. Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel, which have smaller shares, maximize welfare under the Taylor rule, which targets both CPI inflation and real output. South Korea, with higher shares, and Taiwan, with more rigid prices, maximize welfare under real output targeting. CPI inflation targeting, nominal output growth targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes generate lower welfare. However, optimal monetary policy, which generates the highest welfare, gives greater weight on real output than CPI inflation.     

Macroeconomic Management and the Transition to the Market in Vietnam

Vietnam′s macroeconomic performance during the transition to a market economy has been very strong, better than those of most economies in Eastern Europe and of the former Soviet Union. Vietnam grew at an average annual rate of 7% during 1989-1992; inflation declined from over 400% in 1988 to 17% in 1992; and exports increased at more than 30% per year during this period. The macroeconomic success can be attributed to the combination of good endowments and good policy. Vietnam′s output is concentrated in agriculture, services, and light industries, all sectors that responded quickly to price liberalization, strengthened property rights, and real exchange-rate devaluation. J. Comp. Econom., June 1994, 18(3), pp. 357-375. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433.     

Re-evaluation of Welfare Changes during the Transition in Poland

The costs of shortages/rationing are not captured by standard consumer price indices. Thus the change in real GDP per capita is an over-estimate of welfare losses in transition economies. In this study virtual prices are used to calculate new cost of living indices, making it possible to construct more accurate pre-reform and post-reform welfare comparisons. The results for Poland using virtual prices show 62-84% decline in welfare over the transition 1987-92. This welfare loss is approximately one-third of the value obtained using actual prices.     

Trade,structure and linkages in Costa Rica: An input-output approach

Input-output tables for Costa Rica are used first to assess the country's trade performance; it is argued that trade with the rest of Central America has produced a Costa Rican comparative advantage in consumer durables. The paper then uses the input–output tables to examine the economy's structure, which is shown to be block triangular. Finally, measures of linkages are derived from the tables and a critique of the growth-inducing linkage mechanism is presented.