我国地方产业集群内创新行为模式与创新动力的获得路径探析

在大量实地观测和深入调查工作基础上，本文探究了我国地方产业集群内可能的一般创新行为模式及创新动力的生成机制问题。研究发现，我国地方产业集群内基于不同分工形态和相互依存状态的企业网络类型差异，影响了网络内微观创新动力的获得能力，技术不确定性和制度不确定的交互作用加剧了这种影响力的复杂性。主核心企业领导型企业网络对于现阶段我国多数地方产业集群内创新动力的获得具有独特的推动作用和现实意义。构建与主核心企业领导型企业网络相匹配的内外创新分工合作网络，是改变我国地方集群内普遍“集体创新动力缺失”现象的必然选择。     

套利行为、技术溢出介质与我国地方产业集群的升级困境与突破

我国地方产业集群内微观企业创新动力的集体缺失与升级动力不足,是与转型背景下集群内模仿--套利行为的普遍盛行至为相关.而这种模仿--套利机制得以实现的关键在于我国地方产业集群内基于人力资本介质流动和产品介质反向工程的特有技术溢出渠道.从实践来看,以人力资本为介质的流转渠道是其主要方式.本文通过构建一个先入企业与跟随企业的两方动态博弈模型,解析了这种模仿--套利机制与人力资本介质流动技术溢出效应的交互作用,以及其对双方企业自主创新动力产生抑制作用的内在机理,指明这种状况下集群微观企业创新动力集体缺失困境形成的必然性.并针对我国地方产业集群内模仿--套利机制的成因进行分解,据此提出扭转这种困境的相应对策.     

产业集群风险的形成机理及控制研究

支撑地方经济的产业集群其形成和发展是把双刃剑,它在大力提升区域经济竞争优势的同时,也会由集群内群体性风险的突变性传导诱发该区域乃至多个相关区域的集群经济灾难。目前,国内外对产业集群的形成机理、作用机制以及动力机制研究较多,对集群风险的生成及扩散过程缺乏深入研究。笔者试图在对产业集群风险的生成机理解析基础上,具有针对性地提出了规避和化解产业集群风险的相应解决措施和思路。     

产业集群生成与发展的动力探源

产业集群的竞争优势来源于其动力机制,集群的动力包括生成动力与发展动力。产业集群的生成动力包括资源禀赋、社会文化、政府支持、企业间的柔性合作等多方面的因素,其发展动力来自于专业化生产的优势、集群学习效应、凝聚效应等方面。产业集群生成与发展动力的研究对于促进产业集群的形成、推动产业集群的发展提供了理论依据。     

论产业集群的创新模式

聚集机制是产业集群形成、发展的动力所在。产业集群的形成是各种聚集机制共同综合作用的结果，不同类型产业集群创新模式各不相同。技术创新群集现象下的创新集群是产业集群技术创新规律作用的结果。产业集群的地理集中性与网络结构是企业采取合作创新的重要促成因素，以合作创新为主要形式的产业集群内企业的技术创新活动形成了一种独特的集群式创新形式和集群创新网络。它是产业集群竞争力的重要源泉。     

论低碳产业集群的动力机制——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

发展低碳产业集群对于实现中国低碳经济目标有着极其重大的作用。本文论述了我国低碳产业集群动力机制的内涵,认为可持续发展观念是低碳产业集群的思想基础,政府的政策和制度创新对产业集群企业和公众的低碳活动起着激励作用,经济绩效是低碳产业集群的直接动力,技术创新是低碳产业集群发展的关键因素;而国内外低碳环境的压力和产业集群外公众的市场取舍与监督构成了外部动力。各种动力互相配合作用,推动了低碳产业集群快速发展。     

产业集群技术溢出的正向利用机制与创新绩效——兼论如何减小技术模仿等负效应

产业集群中的技术溢出具有促进技术转移和诱发技术模仿的正、负两面效应,无节制的技术模仿将导致产业集群内部的核心大企业和中小企业同时出现技术创新动力不足的问题。本文基于集群企业的组织间关系构建了集群网络的持续创新模型,以大连保税区汽车产业集群为例进行实证分析,探索产业集群技术溢出正向利用机制生成的基本规律和主要途径。研究认为,组织间学习和网络能力在产业集群有效技术溢出的正向利用过程中各自发挥了关键性作用,克服技术模仿等造成创新集群动力缺失的关键在于形成核心大企业与中小企业的协同创新态势。本文最后对研究结论进行了深入讨论,尤其针对如何有效减少技术模仿等负效应的产业集群发展难题,分别从集群企业长期收益与短期收益的取舍、破解集群企业创新动力不足,以及平衡集群中的竞合关系这三个方面,为管理实践和政策设计提供了科学依据。     

我国装备制造业产业集群发展模式及对策

推动我国装备制造业产业集群的发展,要有较强技术能力的大型企业对技术进行集成和创新,通过大企业的结构升级,带动产业集群的形成;要引导装备制造业集群要素网络链接模式向基于价值链主导的模式发展,在装备制造核心企业之间搭建开放性、网络化的生产组织;要使社会网络层成为装备制造业集群网络结构的支撑,让区域社会创新网络的发育和形成成为集群发展的外部动力。     

发展临空产业集群的动力机制研究

临空产业集群是指航空运输相关产业或依赖于航空运输的产业在临空经济辐射区域内形成的产业集群。临空产业集群是临空经济发展到较高阶段的表现,其形成和发展过程具有一般企业所不具备的动力机制。临空工业自身的特点决定其需要通过产业集群获得竞争优势,这是产业集群形成的内因;航空物流枢纽的货物集散功能增强了临空企业的集聚节约增量;而机场与产业集群的良性互动及地方政府的大力支持和积极推动是临空产业集群形成的外部动力。     

产业集群技术创新动力机制研究综述

随着国家推动产业技术创新联盟战略的实施,产业集群对我国经济发展起到了十分重要的推动作用,大大提升了企业的竞争力。产业集群技术创新的动力机制是产业集群发展的核心问题。如何通过技术创新来提高产业集群的自主创新能力,实现集群可持续发展成为摆在我国各产业集群面前的重要任务,因此,对产业集群下企业技术创新的动力机制的研究也是本文的重点。文章还研究了产业集群技术创新的概念、特征、形成路径和分析模型。最后从国内外研究现状进行理论总结和评述,并提出一些问题和研究展望。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.