压力测试在风险管理中的应用

压力测试作为一种风险管理工具,是VaR模型的有益补充。本文研究和评价了压力测试的作用,通过与VaR模型的缺陷进行比较,阐述了压力测试的特征,进而详细介绍了进行压力测试的程序和方法,指出压力测试在我国运用和发展的必要性。     

银行压力测试的方法和应用:优势与缺陷

为弥补银行监管真空、提升银行监管能力、改善银行经营水平,银行压力测试成为新一轮金融监管改革的热点。该文基于银行压力测试的基本概念和测试流程,介绍了银行压力测试在宏微观领域的具体应用,进而对银行压力测试的优势和缺陷进行简要评述,对完善我国银行压力测试具有较强的理论价值和现实意义。     

我国城乡居民通货膨胀承受力比较及压力测试

运用居民通货膨胀承受力测度方法,同时借鉴商业银行进行压力测试的思想与方法,对城镇居民和农村居民的通货膨胀承受力进行了测度与比较。通过构建城乡居民通货膨胀承受力压力测试模型,比较分析了决定城乡居民通货膨胀承受力的宏观经济因子,即城镇为政府财政支出和平均受教育年限,农村为固定资产投资增长率和平均受教育年限,依据情景分析法,分别对我国城乡居民通货膨胀承受力进行了压力测试分析,并结合压力测试结果和我国当前的实际经济状况,提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国大豆批发价格波动规律研究——基于GARCH模型

本文运用GARCH(1,1)模型考察了我国大豆批发价格的波动特征。研究发现,1999—2008年期间我国大豆批发价格呈随机游走趋势,其波动具有右厚尾特征和集群性,价格波动具有ARCH效应,波动冲击影响衰减较慢,近期波动有加剧趋势。     

基于混合正态分布的风险价值度量

利用参数方法计算VaR的关键在于对收益率分布形式的假定是否合理.为了充分反映金融收益的统计特性,并更好地刻画厚尾特征,本文在利用ARMA-GARCH模型过滤了收益序列的自相关和波动聚类特性后,采用混合正态分布模型分析资产收益的VaR度量,并对上证综指获得的日收益率序列进行了实证研究.比较分析混合正态分布和正态分布两种假定下的VaR.结果表明:混合正态分布假设能够反映收益分布5%的厚尾特征并准确地刻画1%的厚尾部分.避免了正态分布假设低估风险的缺陷,保证了VaR的准确性.     

股指期货冲击下标的指数波动变化研究——基于外生和内生结构变化模型的检验

本文首先使用带虚拟变量的GARCH（1，1）模型考察了期指交易对标的指数条件波动的影响，然后利用极值理论（EVT）建立了描述标的指数收益序列极端风险的厚尾指数，最后使用内生结构变化模型确定了期指交易冲击下厚尾指数结构变化点的数目及机制，并估计了各机制厚尾指数的均值水平。结果表明：内生结构变化对应于股指期货交易推出的时间，期指交易降低了现货市场的条件波动，增加了现货市场总体极端波动和左侧极端波动，而对右侧极端波动无影响。     

汇率波动稳态特征的实证研究及其启示

汇率分布具有厚尾特征，这类问题往往很很难用正态分布去描述，正是由于稳态分布能够很好地处理具有厚尾特征的分布，因此在金融领域中得到越来越广泛的应用。本文选取１５个主要币种对美元的汇率，在戴国强等（１９９９）研究的 ，进上步应用稳态分布实证研究汇率小波动的特性。本文的研究表明，１５种主要货币对美元的每日汇率所构成的时间序列均呈现狭峰、厚尾的特生，特征指数α〈２，具有稳态特征，偏斜度参数β指出汇率分布有     

“十二五”时期我国地方政府性债务压力测试研究

"十二五"时期地方政府性债务的风险压力与地方政府存量债务、公共投资的资金需求、地方政府投资能力、中央与地方事权与财力匹配格局以及政府与市场公共投资边界调整等因素密切相关。本研究报告围绕"十一五"时期存量债务影响、公共投资需求、公共投资能力三个方面对"十二五"末债务余额、债务率、偿债率等指标进行定量测算。文章对"十二五"时期我国地方政府债务压力状况,从四种情形分别进行了测算:(1)经济增长视角下债务动态测试;(2)中央与地方支出格局调整债务压力测试;(3)政府与市场边界调整对债务压力测试;(4)养老保险缺口资金显性化债务压力测试。根据测算结果,"十二五"时期我国地方政府性债务风险虽然总体可控,但部分指标揭示出债务压力持续走高,形势不容乐观,有必要多管齐下、疏堵结合,从制度建设、体制机制和政策管理等方面入手,缓解地方政府性债务风险压力。     

流动性风险压力测试的理论与实践

本文围绕流动性风险的特殊性及其压力测试的关键要素,对微观机构进行流动性风险压力测试的理论和实践进行了总结,并探讨了巴塞尔III的流动性风险监管指标与流动性风险压力测试的关系,给出宏观流动性风险压力测试最新进展和发展趋势,为中国银行业实施流动性风险压力测试提供借鉴。     

压力测试在银行风险管理中的应用

近年来压力测试因其衡量金融危机等极端环境下风险的特性在现代银行风险管理中发挥着越来越重要的作用,成为VaR等传统模型的重要补充。本文分别从压力测试的定义、国际实践规范、执行流程等角度对已有的文献和监管部门的调查研究报告进行了总结,并在此基础上归纳分析了压力测试的优缺点,讨论了压力测试中的实际操作细节及对于数据缺乏的发展中国家如何有效地实施压力测试。文章最后对宏观压力测试这一新的发展趋势进行了介绍和诠释,也提出了在压力测试中值得进一步研究的后续问题。     

Early warning system of finance stress for India

This paper develops a composite Financial Sector Stress Index (FSSI) for the Indian financial system as a whole by combining three sub-indices for currency markets, the banking sector and the stock market, to gauge the level of financial stress in the Indian financial system. Such a continuous-valued index can be used to track the varying magnitude and dynamics of financial stress in the country over time. The FSSI provides an ordinal measure of stress in the financial system. Changes in the FSSI are useful in assessing whether financial stress is rising or falling, and in ascertaining extreme events in the financial system. The paper, then, objectively identifies extreme stress periods in the financial system based on movements of the index. We recognise that such extreme/tail events pose special econometric challenges as they are rare events but with a big impact. Hence, we use a more robust and analytically sound technique of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to identify extreme events in the financial system. Once the extreme stress events are identified, we use a binary dependent variable model (logit model) to estimate the impact of various macroeconomic and financial variables on the probability of extreme stress in the financial system.     

Financial sector and output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered

We analyze the feedback mechanisms between economic downturns and financial stress for several euro area countries. Our study employs newly constructed financial condition indices that incorporate banking variables extensively. We apply a non-linear Logistic Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LVSTAR) model for investigating instabilities in the link between the financial sector and economic activity. The LVSTAR model allows for non-linear dynamics and regime changes between low and high stress regimes. It can also replicate the regime-specific amplification effects shown by our theoretical model. The amplification effects, however, change over time. Specifically after the Lehman collapse, we observe the presence of strong non-linearities and amplification mechanisms for some euro area countries. Thus, these strong amplification effects appear to be related to rare but large events, and to a low-frequency financial cycle. Prior to the financial crisis outbreak we find corridor stability even if the financial sector shock takes place in a high stress regime. More important seems to be the shock propagation over time in the economy. Only with the occurrence of rare but large events we find strong endogenous feedback loops and a loss of stability as described by the high stress regime of our theoretical model. The economy leaves the corridor of stability and is prone to adverse feedback loops.     

Do stress tests matter? A study on the impact of the disclosure of stress test results on European financial stocks and CDS markets

During the recent sovereign debt crisis, the European Banking Authority conducted two stress tests on European banks in order to gauge their capital needs, core Tier-1 ratios and ratios of resilience to adverse shocks. We assess the informational content of the disclosure of the stress test outcomes. We conclude that the stress tests conveyed new information and that the outcomes were not anticipated by the stock market but were partially anticipated by the credit default swap (CDS) market. However, while the stock market reacted to the disclosure of the stress test outcomes, in the CDS market there is some evidence of a ‘reverse’ reaction. Moreover, the publication of the outcomes of the stress tests had a stronger impact on the stock prices of riskier financial institutions. A similar pattern is evident in the CDS market, albeit narrowed to one of the stress tests and amid the financial institutions with higher perceived credit risk.     

Interactions between real economic and financial sides of the US economy in a regime-switching environment

This objective of this study is to examine the linkages between real (economic) and financial variables in the United States in a regime-switching environment that accounts explicitly for high volatility in the stock market and high stress in financial markets. Since the linearity test shows that the linear model should be rejected, we employ the Markov-switching VECM to examine the same objective using the Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo method. The regime-dependent impulse response function (RDIRF) highlights the increasing importance of the financial sector of the economy during stress periods. The responses and their fluctuations are significantly greater in the high-volatility regime than in the low-volatility regime.     

Does stock trading volume signal future dividends? Evidence from Iberian firms

Portuguese Economic Journal - In the study we test the theory that financial markets can provide relevant information about forthcoming corporate events. More specifically, we examine the ability...     

Financial conditions and the well-being of the real estate sector—A bottom-up default analysis on five ASEAN economies

This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross-border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well-being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom-up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities.     

论上市公司财务预测的审计鉴证

财务预测是对未来经济事项的反映,是企业管理当局根据其计划及经营环境,对未来财务状况、经营成果和现金流量所作的最佳估计。财务预测信息的本质是其内在的不确定性,模糊性和风险性。财务预测审计具有明显区别于以历史信息为主体的财务报表审计的特点,注册会计师一般只对涉及重大事件的财务预测信息及财务预测信息编制的基本假设、编制基础、会计政策和方法进行审计。     

中国的金融压力及其对宏观经济景气的影响动态

文章从外汇市场、银行体系和资产泡沫三个方面分别测度了中国金融市场面临的压力,并基于动态CRITIC赋权法构建出中国金融压力总指数,分析了中国金融压力变动特征在不同时期特别是金融危机前后的典型差异,以及金融压力变动对经济景气波动的时变影响.研究表明:(1)金融压力积聚对经济景气的抑制效应比金融压力释放的促进效应更加显著;(2)货币政策的滞后性和局限性会引发金融压力与经济景气的"顺周期"现象,继而可能放大金融压力对经济景气的影响;(3)各金融子市场压力对经济景气的影响均具有显著的状态依赖特征,且表现出不同的时变动态.文章认为,政策制定者应在密切关注金融压力演变动态的基础上,灵活运用多种政策工具对重点领域和薄弱环节进行预调微调,充分发挥宏观审慎政策在平抑金融顺周期波动、防范风险跨市场传播等方面的重要作用,以实现宏观经济与金融体系的双重稳定.     

Financial stress and economic activity in Germany

The financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that financial stress may be an important driver for economic activity. In this paper, I derive a financial stress index for Germany, using a dynamic approximate factor model that summarizes a stress component of various financial variables. Subsequently, I analyze the effects of financial stress on economic activity in a threshold vector autoregressive model. I find that if the index exceeds a certain threshold, an increase in financial stress causes economic activity to decelerate significantly, whereas if it is below this threshold, economic activity remains nearly unaffected.     

Effects of the US monetary policy shocks during financial crises – a threshold vector autoregression approach

This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy during periods of low and high financial stress in the US economy using a threshold vector autoregression model. There is evidence that expansionary monetary policy is effective during periods of high financial stress with larger responses having a higher proportionate effect on output. The existence of a cost channel effect during periods of high financial stress implies the existence of a short run output-inflation trade off during financial crises. Large expansionary monetary shocks also increase the likelihood of moving the economy out of a high financial stress regime.