制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易--基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架,运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与“一带一路”国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展,并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约,即相邻效应表现为竞争关系,并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言,中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的“竞争”作用,但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此,在推进“一带一路”战略时,中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与“一带一路”国家,特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益,以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。     

The preliminary effectiveness of bilateral trade in China’s belt and road initiatives: a structural break approach

This study aims to investigate the initial effectiveness of the international trade in the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), which encompasses 64 countries along the Belt and Road as part of China’s political and economic network for the years beginning with 2013. To determine the initial effectiveness in the international trade associated with the BRI, we adopt the traditional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the one-time structural breakpoint in the bilateral trade data between China and these 64 countries along the Belt and Road from 2010 to 2017. The results show that, for 46 (72%) countries, the trade flows with unit roots and the shocks of trade flows appear to occur more frequently following the announcements of the initiatives among these countries. As for the remaining countries, the trade flows exhibit stationary time series over the 2010–2017 period. Both the 21st century maritime silk road and the silk road economic belt initiatives have affected the bilateral trade volumes of these countries along with the belt and road initiatives, and bilateral commerce mechanisms are able to serve as a stabilizing force in accelerating the economic integration of countries along the route.     

Trade development between China and countries along the Belt and Road: A spatial econometric analysis based on trade competitiveness and complementarity

This paper empirically analyses the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on the trade development between China and the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). The study first measures the trade competitiveness and the complementarity between China and the countries along the B&R by using the trade competitiveness coefficient (TCC) and the trade complementarity index (TCI). Then a spatial gravity model is constructed to analyse the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on trade development between China and the countries along the B&R. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and spatial filtering technology to verify the robustness of the model. The results show that the GDP of China and the countries along the B&R, the land area of countries along the B&R, trade complementarity, common language, free trade agreements (FTA), and the B&R Initiative significantly promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, whereas the geographical distance between countries and trade competitiveness significantly inhibit it. Finally, to promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, the present paper puts forward suggestions including improving trade promotion policies between China and the countries along the B&R and vigorously expanding cooperation with complementary industries in the countries along the B&R to enhance trade dependence.     

TRADE,STRUCTURAL REFORM,AND INSTITUTIONS IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

Sub‐Saharan African countries have traditionally lagged the rest of the developing world in terms of overall trade relative to gross domestic product. But, there is growing interest among these countries to initiate trade policies and improve quality of institutions as a way to promote trade and boost foreign direct investment. This article extends the gravity model of trade to include proxies for trade reform policy and institutional quality among the 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for data spanning 1984–2006. Alternative methods of estimation based on ordinary least squares, Heckman two‐step procedure, and Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood produce predictions that are consistent with the standard gravity model. They further highlight the evidence of restrictive trade policies and weak institutions that contribute to the failure of ECOWAS countries to boost bilateral trade. (JEL F13, F15, O19, O55)     

“一带一路”沿线国家低碳发展效率测评及影响因素探究

基于1996-2015年“一带一路”沿线32个国家的面板数据,运用US-SBM模型与ML指数对各国低碳发展效率进行测评。在此基础上采用面板回归方法分析“一带一路”沿线国家整体低碳发展效率影响因素,得到以下结论：①“一带一路”沿线国家低碳发展效率在考察期内整体偏低,纯技术效率是引致各国低碳发展效率差异的主因;②技术进步是推动“一带一路”沿线国家低碳发展技术效率增长的重要因素,规模效率则是一大阻力;③资本投入、能源消费、碳排放及产业结构等均对“一带一路”沿线国家整体低碳发展效率表现出显著抑制力,而经济发展、技术投入、劳动力投入及对外开放则促进低碳发展效率的提升。据此,提出促进“一带一路”沿线国家低碳发展技术效率提升对策建议。     

东道国科技创新、制度质量与中国OFDI门槛效应分析——基于“一带一路”视角

“一带一路”应当成为科技合作之路和创新之路。以2003-2017年“一带一路”沿线50个东道国面板数据为基础构建门槛回归模型，以东道国制度质量为门槛变量考察东道国科技创新对中国直接投资的影响。研究表明：东道国政治稳定程度、施政有效性、规制质量、法治程度、贪腐控制和公民参政与问责6个制度质量指标均存在单一门槛，说明东道国制度质量对其科技创新及中国直接投资具有影响。但是，6个制度质量指标的回归系数各不相同，说明东道国制度质量各指标的相关影响也不尽相同，中国企业在投资决策时应具体分析。最后，“一带一路”沿线国家科技水平普遍不高，而其较低的制度质量更是制约了各国科技创新，中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资时应注意防范“技术陷阱”。     

“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络结构特征及其对技术进步的影响——基于社会网络分析法的研究*

本文采用社会网络分析法探讨了2008—2018年“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络结构特征,测算沿线国家贸易网络中心位置对技术进步的影响,并对不同收入国家进行异质性分析。研究发现：“一带一路”沿线国家整体贸易结构比较松散,意大利、土耳其、韩国、俄罗斯、中国和新加坡等国家（地区）位于网络核心,共有23个国家（地区）发挥“中介”或“桥梁”作用,影响着其余沿线国家之间的贸易联系;超过四成的沿线国家（地区）与非贸易伙伴国具有较强的间接贸易关系。贸易网络中心位置的提升能显著促进母国技术进步,间接贸易影响母国技术进步的边际效应大于直接贸易;中高等收入水平国家直接和间接贸易地位和贸易强度的提升均显著促进了技术进步,低等收入国家贸易强度的提升也能促进母国的技术进步。     

The importance of the Logistics Performance Index in international trade

Logistics and transport increasingly play a pivotal role in international trade relations. The Logistics Performance Index (LPI) analyses differences between countries in terms of customs procedures, logistics costs and the quality of the infrastructure for overland and maritime transport. The aim of this article is to analyse the impact that each of these components has on trade in emerging economies using a gravity model. Furthermore, the study also attempts to detect possible advances in logistics in developing countries, which are grouped into five regions (Africa, South America, Far East, Middle East and Eastern Europe) by comparing the first LPI data published in 2007 with the most recent data, released in 2012. The results obtained reveal that improvements in any of the components of the LPI can lead to significant growth in a country’s trade flows. Specifically, LPI components are becoming increasingly important for international trade in many countries in Africa, South America and Eastern Europe.     

会计准则国际趋同与“一带一路”建设*——基于中国对“一带一路”沿线各国直接投资视角的研究

本文首先详细梳理了“一带一路”沿线国家会计准则的适用情况，在此基础上，本文采用我国对“一带一路”沿线各国的对外直接投资数据，实证检验了中国和“一带一路”沿线各国会计语言的相似性与中国对其对外直接投资之间的关系。本文用会计准则国际趋同作为会计语言相似性的衡量方法，研究发现，相似的会计语言能够促进我国对“一带一路”沿线各国的对外直接投资，并且这种促进作用在“一带一路”合作倡议提出之后更加明显。本文进一步研究发现会计语言影响中国对“一带一路”沿线国家与地区直接投资的机制主要是缓解了东道国企业与我国投资者之间的信息不对称。上述结果表明,“一带一路”沿线国家会计准则的国际趋同对“一带一路”建设有重要促进作用；会计作为国际通用的商业语言，对国家、地区乃至全球社会经济发展具有重要推动意义。本文结论为会计准则国际趋同与“一带一路”建设的研究提供了新的经验与证据。     

中国对外直接投资有助于沿线国家绿色技术创新吗——基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据的检验

“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色转型给中国承担新使命、促进国内国际双循环和绿色发展创造了新机遇。基于中国对外直接投资（OFDI）特征,研究其对“一带一路”沿线国家绿色技术创新的影响及作用机制。研究发现,中国OFDI主要通过绿色技术溢出机制、增长机制影响“一带一路”沿线国家绿色技术创新;该绿色技术创新效应随着互联互通合作水平提升而显著增强,且对沿线国家绿色技术创新的改善效果主要体现在高收入组国家。     

贸易政策不确定性是否影响中国企业的对外直接投资概率*

本文基于中国企业微观数据，深入探讨了贸易政策不确定性对中国企业对外直接投资概率的影响。实证研究发现：贸易政策不确定性下降，能有效促进企业对外直接投资的发生，其影响机制是通过学习效应实现的。本文通过进一步检验，发现不同所有制类型、要素密集度、生产率的企业在面临贸易政策不确定性冲击时，其对外直接投资行为具有显著的异质性。该研究结论在考虑内生性问题、更换贸易不确定性的度量方式等稳健性检验后依然成立。     

Is trade in electrical and electronic products sensitive to IPR protection? Evidence from China’s exports

This article attempts to provide the first empirical evidence on the effect of intellectual property rights (IPRs) on China’s export of electrical and electronic products. It adopts a gravity model for unbalanced panel data of China’s 146 important trading partners over the period of 2002–2012. To eliminate the effects of FDI in determining the linkage between IPR and exports, the panel excludes the destination countries and territories that invest in China. The results reveal that the level of IPR protection in destination countries has a positive impact on China’s flow of exports. Further analysis on data disaggregated by IPR score demonstrates that a higher level of IPR protection in destination countries and territories is positively linked with China’s exports of these items in each of the IPR protection clusters and indicates a strong market power effect by the interplay between R&D expenditure and IPR in the destinations. Finally, both market power and market expansion effects are found to be prevalent in the destinations, as implied by the coefficient of IPR protection disaggregated by income level of China’s export destinations. The results generally resemble those in the literature that describe the linkage between IPR protection and trade flows.     

The Belt and Road Initiative and China's Export: A Soft Power Perspective

Using a newly built soft power index, we examine whether and how soft power affects Chinese firm-level export to the Belt and Road (B&R) countries from 2000 to 2016. We find that soft power has significantly positive effects on both export value and export product types for the B&R countries. These effects are more pronounced than those for non-B&R countries and differ not only between the "Belt" and the "Road" countries but also regional groups, firm ownerships, modes of trade, and sectors. Further analysis shows that soft power increases the intensive margin of exports by approximately three times that of the extensive margin. Thus, our findings provide a new perspective for understanding both the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the contemporary economic evolution occurring in China.     

“一带一路”倡议下中国口岸出入境货运量的时空格局演变探究

口岸作为国家指定的对外开放门户,承担着国与国之间货物运输和人员往来的重要功能。"一带一路"倡议的实施促进了我国口岸的发展,带动了口岸经济与区域经济的发展,反过来进一步加强了与"一带一路"沿线国家的合作。本文利用口岸运行指标中的出入境货运量数据,借助探索性空间数据分析方法,对我国2011—2017年31个省(区、市)的口岸出入境货运量的时空格局进行分析。结果表明:"一带一路"倡议提出后,尤其是2015年后,我国口岸出入境货运总量呈现快速增长态势且存在显著的空间正相关性;三类口岸(水运、陆运和空运口岸)中,水运口岸存在更显著的、更强的空间相关性;各类口岸出入境货运量中,东部沿海地区水运呈现正向空间集聚现象,西部沿边地区陆运呈现极化现象。此外,本文对全国31个省(区、市)的地区货运总量也进行了空间动态分析,发现也存在空间相关性,且集聚效应在"一带一路"倡议提出后不断增强。在此基础上,为了更好地服务于"一带一路"建设,本文提出了提升各类口岸运输能力的相关对策建议。     

中国与G-7的双边服务贸易成本的测度与决定因素——基于改进引力模型的应用

对中国双边服务贸易成本的测度和对其决定因素的探寻可以更好地为服务贸易流动提供解释,对中国服务贸易开放有重要的政策启示。笔者基于改进的引力模型,测度了1999年～2007年间中国与G-7的双边服务贸易成本,并利用面板数据对其进行分解,以此寻求影响中国对外服务贸易成本的因素。结果表明:中国与G-7的双边服务贸易成本总体呈下降趋势,并且在加入WTO后有加速的迹象;空间距离与服务贸易壁垒是双边服务贸易成本存在的主因,与贸易国的人均收入之差及共同的海陆边界有助于降低双边服务贸易成本,共同的贸易集团对于两国服务贸易成本的影响并不明显。     

The gravity model analysis: an application on MERCOSUR trade flows

This paper explores the determinants of bilateral trade flows between Mercosur countries. To this aim, a gravity model is applied to annual bilateral exports between 75 countries in 1980–2008. The model is augmented with variables that are relevant in determining the volume and direction of international trade using two alternative estimation methods; pooled ordinary least squares and panel fixed effects. The results reveal that the influence of the agreement on trade has been positive but moderate. As a whole, Mercosur has had positive effects, and this agreement can be reinforced with the deepening of their relationships and the entry of new members.     

The impact of the ACFTA on ASEAN–PRC trade: estimates based on an extended gravity model for component trade

This article uses an extended gravity model to examine the impact of the free trade agreement between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on their trade flows and patterns. New determinants are utilized to capture the growing importance of global production sharing and intraregional trade in parts and components in East Asia. We show that the free trade agreement leads to substantially higher and more pronounced bilateral trade flows between ASEAN and the PRC than what a conventional gravity model predicts and the increase is concentrated in ASEAN countries that have stronger industrial linkages with the PRC.     

中国对外直接投资对进出口贸易的影响分析

笔者在分析对外直接投资对进出口贸易影响机制的基础上,使用1993年～2009年中国对105个国家(地区)直接投资和进出口贸易的面板数据,应用动态VAR模型和面板格兰杰因果检验方法对我国的情况进行实证研究。结果表明:我国对外直接投资与出口及进口之间均存在双向格兰杰因果关系,对外直接投资是贸易创造型的,但这种创造效应还较为有限。因此,应积极发展对外直接投资,并发挥其与贸易的良性互动关系。     

“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国国家风险评级与对策研究

为了使中国企业在“走出去”的过程中合理识别和评估东道国的国家风险，提高国家间投资合作的效率，本文以中资企业对外投资中面临的国家风险为主要研究对象，构建了中国对外直接投资国家风险评价体系。从投入产出角度，运用超效率DEA模型与Malmquist指数相结合的分析方法，从静态与动态的时间角度对2014—2018年“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险进行实证分析。研究发现：从静态层面看，中南亚区域呈现较高的国家风险，我国应加强与东道国联系，重点关注东道国投资环境的变化；欧洲地区特别是中东欧国家更适合中国企业对外投资，合作规模有待进一步扩大；西亚地区投资风险两极分化，我国应密切关注高风险国家投资风险的隐患，并建立相应的补偿机制。从动态层面看，通过Malmquist指数分析可知，研究年份间“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险在逐步改善，国家管理的整体趋势向着良好的方向发展。基于分析结果，本文提出了相关的政策建议。     

“一带一路”归国学术人才学科分布分析

运用简历分析研究方法,对中国109所"211工程大学"教师的简历进行大数据分析,研究了来自"一带一路"沿线国家和地区的归国学术人才的学科分布情况。研究结果显示:来自"一带一路"沿线国家和地区的归国学术人才主要来自新加坡、俄罗斯和以色列,主要流入北京、上海和江苏;来自"一带一路"沿线国家和地区的归国学术人才的学科背景主要是工学和理学,具体的专业方向是材料学、工程技术类、电子信息类、土木类、化学、生物学和物理学。