我国省际企业自主创新投入产出效率的综合评价

本文利用国家统计局发布的年度大中型工业企业自主创新的统计资料,构建因子分析评价模型,分别对全国不同省份企业自主创新投入、产出状况进行综合评价。在此基础上,进一步对比企业自主创新投入产出综合评价指数、排序位次的变更情况,从而获得企业技术创新投入产出、创新效率的基本评价,并构建出不同省份企业创新效率的四维矩阵。实证结果显示,在技术创新投入要素和效率提升的基础上,实现低投入—高产出将是省际企业自主创新应该共同实现的发展路径。     

区域自主创新的绩效评价——以福建省为例

评价区域自主创新的绩效,对于改善创新管理、进一步提高创新系统的效率具有重要意义。本文基于技术创新的链式模式和创新活动过程的阶段性特征,提出了评价区域自主创新绩效的方法和概念模型;并以我国福建省为例,利用1995--2006年福建省区域自主创新的相关数据,运用DEA方法,对福建省创新过程中的知识创新、技术开发、设计制造、市场实现等环节的绩效进行了评价和分析。研究结果表明：福建省自主创新系统中的知识创新活动仍处于技术效率最佳和规模收益不变状态,继续增加知识创新资源投入仍将是合理的;技术开发活动已进入了规模收益递减阶段,规模无效率状况严重;设计制造活动的综合绩效较高,但2006年已出现规模收益递减现象。最后,提出了适当增加知识创新投入比例、提高技术交易的实现效率、增加技术改造资金投入比例等提高福建省区域自主创新绩效的对策建议。     

基于过程模型的企业技术创新能力指标体系研究

通过引入过程模型,将企业技术创新视为一个不断持续改进的系统过程。通过对技术创新的过程进行分析,将技术创新能力分解为:信息能力、创新管理能力、创新资源投入能力、技术创新实现能力和技术创新绩效能力5个方面,并在此基础上提出了比较全面的技术创新能力评价指标体系。     

湖北省高技术产业技术创新绩效评价研究

根据高技术产业投入和产出特点，构建了技术创新绩效评价指标体系，运用灰色关联模型，在分析科技投入对创新产出影响的基础上，对2006-2011年湖北省高技术产业创新绩效进行了综合评价。结果表明：湖北省高技术产业的技术创新绩效总体呈上升趋势，但在2009-2010年有较大幅度下降，主要原因是人力资源和资金投入大幅度下滑；湖北省高技术产业存在科技成果转化能力弱、资金投入较少、技术创新激励机制不够完善等问题。最后提出相关建议，为全面提升湖北省高技术产业技术创新绩效提供决策参考。     

出口中学、自主研发与中国高技术企业的创新绩效

出口贸易引致的技术溢出和研发投入实现的自主创新是企业提升创新绩效的两个重要途径。该文利用中国1.4万家高技术企业2005-2008年调查数据的实证分析表明,研发投入的增加会显著提升企业的创新绩效,而"出口中学"的观点却缺乏经验证据的支持。由于代工所产生的"锁定"效应,企业的创新绩效反而随出口规模的增大而下降。人力资本水平的提升会放大出口贸易与自主研发对创新绩效的影响。     

工业综合竞争力评价——基于我国12省数据的分析

省级区域工业综合竞争力水平差异是近年来学术界关注的一个重要问题。在已有研究成果的基础上,构建省级区域工业综合竞争力评价指标体系,运用因子分析和聚类分析方法对西部12省份工业综合竞争力进行实证分析。结果表明:生产规模、生产绩效、生产技术创新和可持续性是影响省级区域工业综合竞争力的三个主因子;省级区域工业综合竞争力水平参差不齐,差距依然较大;大部分省级区域在三个主因子方面的工业竞争力存在自身的不均衡。最后,提出着力实现产业规模化生产、努力提高生产绩效、进一步提升科技创新和生产可持续性能力等政策建议。     

协同创新、区域一体化与创新绩效——对中国三大区域数据的比较研究

协同创新是区域协同发展的内在动力。运用2002-2014年京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大区域省际或各地市数据,应用复合系统协同度模型与数据包络法度量协同创新度和创新绩效,构建了协同创新对创新绩效影响的计量模型;应用空间计量技术对区域一体化与创新绩效的关系进行分析。结果表明,除珠三角外,长三角和京津冀协同创新活动对创新绩效无显著影响;区域一体化程度越高,区域内部创新绩效分布越均衡;"企业自身投入"与"政府资助"等内生要素是促进区域一体化和提升创新绩效的主要动力。因此,应促进区域内部生产要素自由、合理流动,实现创新资源有效溢出,提升区域发展内生动力,加深区域一体化程度,提高创新效率。     

基于TOPSIS法的区域企业自主创新能力评价及比较研究

定量研究不同区域企业自主创新能力之间的差异和特征对加强区域创新能力建设具有重要意义。基于《中国企业自主创新能力分析报告》,从技术创新能力的角度构建了区域企业自主创新能力的测度和评价指标体系,并运用TOPSIS法对我国内地31个省级行政区域的企业自主创新能力进行了综合评价,对不同区域企业自主创新能力的差异和特征进行了比较分析。     

价值管理视角下的中小企业自主创新能力评价研究

价值管理对中小企业实现自主创新活动价值最大化具有重要意义。将价值管理评价指标与自主创新能力评价指标相结合,建立了从财务、客户与市场、内部经营、学习与成长4个层面反映企业潜在技术创新资源、技术创新活动、技术创新产出能力、技术创新环境的指标体系,运用BP神经网络对中小企业自主创新能力进行了评价及实证分析,在此基础上,结合价值管理理论提出了提升中小企业自主创新能力的对策性建议。     

供给侧改革视域下高技术产业创新投入要素与成果产出关系研究——来自我国医药制造业的耦合证据

高技术产业创新投入与成果产出关系研究是提升产业创新效率的重要依据。在文献回顾的基础上,构建了我国医药制造业创新投入与成果产出指标体系,并引入耦合模型对医药制造业2005-2017年的创新投入产出数据进行实证分析。研究结果揭示了我国医药制造业创新投入与成果产出的综合水平、耦合关联度及耦合协调度,可为高技术产业技术创新与发展提供理论和实证支持。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.