A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT,OCCUPATIONAL CHOICES,AND JOB SEARCH*

This article examines career choices using a dynamic structural model that nests a job search model within a human capital model of occupational and educational choices. Wage growth occurs in the model because workers move between firms and occupations as they search for suitable job matches and because workers endogenously accumulate firm and occupation specific human capital. Simulations performed using the estimated model reveal that both self‐selection in occupational choices and mobility between firms account for a much larger share of total earnings and utility than the combined effects of firm and occupation specific human capital.     

The impact of job mobility on earnings: using occupational and industrial classifications to identify job changes

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median number of years that a US worker has been with their current employer is 4.4 years. Although many job changes may not be classified as ‘career changes,’ any type of job change may have an impact on a person’s future earnings. In the present study, the following three types of job changes are examined in order to determine which ones result in higher incomes: a change in occupational status; a change in industry; or a change in both. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), a log-linear wage regression with a correction for self-selection is estimated. Results suggest that changing jobs within the same industry or within the same occupation both increase a person’s income. However, a job change that is characterized by both a change in industry and occupation reduces a person’s income. The present study is one of the few studies to examine the effects of job mobility on earnings when mobility is defined in the context of changes in occupational and/or industrial classification.     

Occupational Change and Mobility Among Employed and Unemployed Job Seekers

We use data from the Labour Force Survey to show that employed and unemployed job seekers in Great Britain originate from different occupations and find jobs in different occupations. We find substantial differences in occupational mobility between job seekers: employed job seekers are most likely to move to occupations paying higher average wages relative to their previous occupation, while unemployed job seekers are most likely to move to lower paying occupations. Employed and unemployed job seekers exhibit different patterns of occupational mobility and, therefore, do not accept the same types of jobs.     

RISING OCCUPATIONAL AND INDUSTRY MOBILITY IN THE UNITED STATES: 1968–97*

We document and analyze the high level and the substantial increase in worker mobility in the United States over the 1968–97 period at various levels of occupational and industry aggregation. This is important in light of the recent findings that human capital of workers is largely occupation‐ or industry‐specific. To control for measurement error in occupation and industry coding, we develop a method that utilizes the PSID Retrospective Occupation‐Industry Supplemental Data Files. We emphasize the importance of our findings for understanding a number of issues such as the changes in wage inequality, aggregate productivity, job stability, and life‐cycle earnings profiles.     

OCCUPATIONAL PENSIONS, WAGES, AND JOB MOBILITY IN GERMANY

Pension‐covered workers in Germany are three times less likely to change jobs than workers not covered by an occupational pension scheme. This paper examines the effects of occupational pension coverage and pension portability loss on voluntary job changes using a sample selection model with endogenous switching. The model estimates, derived from western German panel data for 1985–1998, indicate that occupational pension coverage reduces worker mobility by imposing a capital loss on those leaving their job before retirement age. Moreover, pension‐covered workers receive a higher compensation, which discourages mobility. Making pensions portable increases mobility, but from a low initial level.     

Occupational mobility and the returns to training

The literature on the returns to training has pointed out that, immediately following a training episode, wages of participants in employer-sponsored training increase substantially while wages of participants in government-sponsored training hardly change. We argue that there is a potential selection issue—most of the government-sponsored trainees are occupation switchers while most participants in employer-sponsored training are occupation stayers. An occupational switch involves a substantial destruction of human capital, and once we account for the associated decline in wages, we find a large positive impact of both employer- and government-sponsored training on workers’ human capital.     

Job mismatches and career mobility

Does over-education assist or hinder occupational advancement? Career mobility theory hypothesizes that over-education leads to a higher level of occupational advancement and wage growth over time, with mixed international empirical evidence. This paper re-tests career mobility theory directly using a rich Australian longitudinal data set. A dynamic random effects probit model is employed to examine upward occupational mobility, considering two-digit occupational rank advancement and wage growth over three-year intervals. The ‘Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia’ data across nine years are employed, and a Mundlak correction model is adopted to adjust for unobserved heterogeneity effects and potential endogeneity, both of which are important to over-education analysis. Contrary to career theory, the results point to job mismatch as an economic concern rather than a passing phase, regardless of whether or not workers are skill-matched. Results further show the importance of adjusting for endogeneity.     

Educational mismatch and promotions to managerial positions: a test of the career mobility theory

Career mobility theory suggests that given a certain occupation, schooling improves upward mobility in terms of promotion and wage growth. We are the first to test the implications of this theory for over- and undereducation by means of direct information about promotions to managerial positions. Using German administrative data entailing an employer-reported – and hence objective – measure of educational requirements, we show that overeducated workers are indeed more likely to be promoted and that this career mobility advantage is more pronounced in the early stages of their working lives. By contrast, undereducated workers are less likely to be promoted to managerial positions. Moreover, in terms of wage growth, while overeducated workers benefit more, undereducated workers benefit less from promotions than their well-matched educational peers. Altogether, these findings strongly support the career mobility theory. Furthermore, by differentiating between internal and external promotions, we provide evidence that promotions are more likely for overeducated workers within the establishment, whereas the opposite applies for undereducated workers. This finding indicates the relevance of both over- and undereducation as signals of true ability to other employers.     

Occupational Mobility and Wage Inequality

In this article we argue that wage inequality and occupational mobility are intimately related. We are motivated by our empirical findings that human capital is occupation specific and that the fraction of workers switching occupations in the U.S. was as high as 16% a year in the early 1970's and had increased to 21% by the mid-1990's. We develop a general equilibrium model with occupation-specific human capital and heterogeneous experience levels within occupations. We find that the model, calibrated to match the level of occupational mobility in the 1970's, accounts quite well for the level of (within-group) wage inequality in that period. Next, we find that the model, calibrated to match the increase in occupational mobility, accounts for over 90% of the increase in wage inequality between the 1970's and the 1990's. The theory is also quantitatively consistent with the level and increase in the short-term variability of earnings.     

A better job thanks to personal networks? An evaluation for migrants who arrived in France before age 18

It is more difficult for migrants than natives to find a job in their host country, so many of them have to accept, at least temporarily, a job that is below their level of qualification. This represents a waste of human capital for society and can undermine social cohesion. Relying on social relationships might help them to bypass some of the obstacles that prevent them from finding a job that matches their skillset. We focus on migrants who arrived in France before the age of 18 years, who were educated entirely or partially in France. We use the rich French Trajectories and Origins dataset for 2009 to study the impact of personal contacts on the quality of the current employment. We measure the job quality using an indicator based on the educational requirement for a given occupation. To address the endogeneity between our dependent variable (holding a suitable job or not) and the variable of interest (employment found through a personal contact or not), we use the variable ‘sibling(s) in France’ as an instrument: this variable influences an individual’s probability of finding a job through contacts but does not influence directly the quality of the employment. Our results indicate that for these migrants, finding a job through personal contacts strongly and positively impacts the occupational status attained: it raises both women’s and men’s probability of holding a suitable job by more than 0.40 points.     

An Analysis of the Impact of Health on Occupation

Maintaining individuals with health limitations in the labour force is a challenge of growing importance. Determining the effect of health on occupation may tell us how people adapt to their limitations, and what types of jobs make this harder or easier. This paper uses the first 14 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey to examine the effect of health and changes in health on occupation for the working‐age population. I use dynamic panel models which account for selection into employment. Two measures of occupation are used to capture two aspects of occupation highlighted in the literature as being linked to health: physical job demands and status. The results of the analyses provide some evidence that a health shock reduces the likelihood of manual employment for younger men, suggesting that younger men may adapt to a health shock by reducing physical job demands. Worsening health and work‐limiting long‐term conditions are found to have a negative effect on occupational status for men and women, suggesting health selection into lower‐status jobs, and an adverse effect of poor health on occupational mobility.     

The visible and the hidden behind migrants’ human capital

The paper explores differences in human capital between the Israel-born and immigrants within the Jorgenson and Fraumeni model. Using a unique ‘imputed education’ method, the study answers whether the immigrants’ level of education, in fact, reflects their human capital. The results show that immigrants during their first years do not work in an occupation that fits their education; this holds their estimated human capital below that of the Israel-born. Over the years, the gap between immigrants and non-immigrants in per-capita human capital contracted from 30 percent to 14 percent on average, or, using the imputation method, from 23 percent to 9 percent. In addition, the gaps between the immigrants and nonimmigrants and those between original education and imputed education contract at higher education levels. Some immigrants were able to find an occupation that matched their education and to integrate into the local job market, and the per-capita human capital of immigrants and nonimmigrants converged.     

Multigenerational Mobility Among Males in India

Most studies of intergenerational mobility focus on adjacent generations, and there is limited knowledge about multigenerational mobility—status transmission across three generations. We examine multigenerational educational and occupational mobility in India, using a nationally representative data set the India Human Development Survey that contains information about education and occupation for three generations. We find that mobility has increased over generations for education, but not for occupation. We also find that there are stark differences across social groups, with individuals belonging to socially disadvantaged communities lagging behind in social progress. Multigenerational mobility for Muslims in education and occupation has decreased in comparison to Hindus over the three generations. While we find that there is an increase in educational mobility for other disadvantaged groups such as Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes compared to General Castes, we do not find evidence of increased occupational mobility over the three generations.     

企业人力资本投资的困境

本文以产权理论为依据,分析了企业人力资本投资的困境.人力资本的天然私有性使得企业进行培训投资的直接结果是受训者人力资本水平的提高,企业在与培训后雇员的谈判关系中处于不利地位,企业必须将培训的部分收益给予雇员,形成企业人力资本投资的困境,从而对企业事前的培训投资产生一定的扭曲.只有当预期未来收益足够高时,企业才会提供培训.各种影响企业获得收益的因素都会对企业的培训产生影响.     

The timing of childbearing: The role of human capital and personal preferences

As significant as the shift from quantity to quality in fertility decisions, a rise in the median age at first birth has been commonly observed in the more developed world. This paper attempts to understand the latter demographic trend from the empirical perspective. We first construct a conditional hazard model that incorporates determinants of birth spacing, with a primary emphasis on human capital and personal preference factors. We then examine the importance of these factors, using a rich data set comprised of a selected sample of women from various cohorts reported in the 1980 Taiwan Census. Our results show that, in addition to the age at marriage, human capital factors such as the woman’s education, job security and occupation are all significant in influencing the first spacing. The roles played by these human capital factors become even more important for the second spacing. In the third spacing, the relative importance of education and occupation still persists, while gender preferences become much stronger. Overall, while job security shortens the timing of childbearing, better education and occupation as well as more girls from previous births all lead to delays in births. As for preference factors, we find that elementary school teachers have a shorter birth-spacing compared to junior high school teachers, indicating possible personal preferences for children that are consistent with women’s job selection.     

基于职业倦怠的员工职业稳定性研究

我国正处于社会和经济的转型期,职业的不稳定性和不安全感逐步增加,职场竞争激烈,职业焦虑严重,职业倦怠已成为职场人工作和生活中不可回避的问题。最新权威调查显示,我国正进入"职业倦怠"的高峰期,七成以上的职场人士产生了工作倦怠。职业倦怠因工作而起,又反作用于工作。本研究对职业稳定性的理论进行了梳理,从职业倦怠角度分析了员工职业稳定性下降的原因。这些因素说明员工个体因为工作负担过重、缺乏工作自主、薪资待遇不合期望、缺乏职业安全感、缺乏挑战性的工作以及个人能力得不到发挥等对员工的职业稳定性有着密切的关系。员工职业的不稳定,将使企业面临巨大的人才流失的压力。为此,本研究提出企业要想确保员工队伍的稳定,就应该关注员工的职业匹配度和职业延展度,规划好员工的职业生涯,通过多样化的工作设计,为员工提供更多的职业发展机会。同时,提倡成功标准多样化的企业文化,引导员工正确认同自我价值,企业才能成功地留住员工。     

OCCUPATIONAL SPECIFICITY OF HUMAN CAPITAL*

We find that returns to occupational tenure are substantial. Everything else being constant, 5 years of occupational tenure are associated with an increase in wages of 12%–20%. Moreover, when occupational experience is taken into account, tenure with an industry or employer has relatively little importance in accounting for the wage one receives. This finding is consistent with human capital being occupation specific.     

Human capital and the re‐employment of retrenchment labor in urban China

The inefficiency of state‐owned enterprises, followed by the economic reform in urban China, resulted in large‐scale retrenchment during the late1990s. The laid‐off workers were middle‐aged, not well educated and had accumulated a lot of firm‐specific human capital that was unlikely to be of value in the product market. In this study, we investigate how differently human capital affects laid‐off workers’ occupation choices: self‐employment, re‐employment and remaining unemployed. Using 2002 Chinese Household Income Project and 2009 Urban Household Survey datasets, we find that although general human capital measured by education is positively related to the probability of finding a job, it is negatively associated with the probability of self‐employment. Displaced workers with more sector‐specific work experience are more likely to be self‐employed than to be employed by others. Government‐sponsored training significantly increases the likelihood of finding a job. Health is positively associated with re‐employment.     

Training Systems and Labor Mobility: A Comparison between Germany and Sweden*

The mobility effect of general and specific training is a key issue in the debate on the design of educational systems. Using data from two retrospective life‐history surveys, we compare general school‐based vocational training and specific apprenticeship training with regard to inter‐firm, inter‐occupational and inter‐industrial mobility. The results show that workers with school‐based degrees display greater occupational mobility, while no difference in firm and industrial mobility can be discerned. This suggests that apprenticeships do not eliminate job search at labor market entry, that they reduce occupational mobility, and that responsiveness to structural change is similar under both training systems.     

Waiting as a signal: Why women are delaying fertility?

Gone are the days when women got married and reared children at the age of 20 in developed countries. Nowadays, women are attending college and developing a career just like men. In this paper, we provide an alternative theory on why women choose not to put their early career on hold in order to have a child. Differing from the traditional human capital theory in the literature, we focus on the role of asymmetric information in the job market. We show that under asymmetric information, women have incentives to signal their career commitment. This causes a delay and a decline in fertility and a rise in educational attainment. We also examine different pro-natal policies. We find that policies subsidizing only early fertility are more efficient.