Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight

The paper analyses the role of corporate foresight (CF) as a future intelligence gathering process, which has come into widespread use in a business context where it is confronted with specific contextual, processual and methodological challenges. The results of a 2005/2006 survey on CF by the University of St Gallen in co-operation with Z_punkt are used as a starting point to provide insights into the goals, methods and use of CF in large corporations. Taking into account the challenges facing CF and the factors considered critical for its success, the paper outlines a historical contextualisation of CF practices from the 1980s onward, identifying the underlying assumptions - the 'dominant logic' - and opting for a new model of CF as 'open foresight'.     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

‘Technology foresight towards 2020 in China’: the practice and its impacts

Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the ‘Technology Foresight towards 2020’ exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.     

Emergent foresight processes: industrial activities in wireless communications

Technology foresight has received growing attention among those involved in the shaping and implementation of science and technology (S&T) policies. However, although evaluative analyses of foresight exercises have supplied evidence on acclaimed benefits—such as the generation of future-oriented knowledge and strengthening of collaborative networks—they also point to challenges in translating foresight results into actions within research and technology development (RTD) organizations. In this article, we address these challenges by considering the work of the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF), which has sought to promote the conception, development, and diffusion of wireless communication technologies. Specifically, by contrasting this work with well-known government-initiated foresight exercises, we typify so-called explicit, emergent, and embedded foresight activities and explore their interrelationships. Our comparative analysis points to conditions under which policy interventions may not be needed for the emergence of foresight activities that exert a major influence on RTD agendas. It also suggests several context-dependent roles for public policy, among which government-driven foresight exercises and the catalysis of more narrowly focused activities are but two examples.     

我国绿色经济发展对策探讨

绿色经济是以福利最大化为目标的新经济模式。在论述发展绿色经济必要性的基础上,文章提出绿色经济发展一靠政府的支持和引导,二靠绿色产业的发展,三靠技术创新。     

我国绿色食品产业区域发展差异与策略

基于文献综述,构建了我国绿色食品产业区域发展能力评价指标体系,建立了以截面数据为基础的因子分析评价模型,并对我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的绿色食品产业发展能力进行了综合评价,对其主要影响因素进行了分析。最后,据此提出提高各区域绿色食品产业竞争优势的战略思路与对策。     

Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology

This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation.To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used.The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.     

德国绿色环境技术产业发展现状及政策机制分析

本文在调研德国绿色环境技术产业最新发展现状的基础上,对其技术创新情况和产业政策体制进行了总结分析。     

我国绿色食品产业发展“结构制约”的实证研究

从规模、结构、效率及协调等方面构建绿色食品产业发展分析框架,指出绿色食品产业发展是一个基于结构不断优化的产业演化过程。采用灰色关联分析与信息熵理论和方法对我国绿色食品产业发展的产品结构、地区结构、组织结构等的"结构制约"状况进行实证分析,并得出基本结论:在绿色食品产业快速发展中,产业结构性障碍矛盾突出。提出积极转变产业发展方式,通过调整与优化产业结构、改善效率以促进产业协调有序发展的政策建议。     

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

西部退耕农民社会保障问题研究

为退耕农民提供基本的生活和生产保障，才能使其全力地投入到退耕还林工作中去。本文主要从必要性、制度建设和相关配套制度三个方面来论述了如何为西部退耕农民建立一系列稳定的社会保障制度。     

我国绿色食品产业发展的空间分布差异及演变特征分析

建立信息熵模型对我国绿色食品产业发展的空间分布差异及时空演变特征进行分析,根据信息熵值进行产业发展类型区划分,讨论绿色食品产业地区结构的均衡程度及其与产业发展规模之间的内在联系。研究表明,我国绿色食品产业的地区结构具有显著的"不均衡"特征,其发展处于无序发展状态,地区优势不明显。特别是2007年以后,信息熵呈收敛下降趋势,表明我国绿色食品产业处于成长阶段,产业发展的地区分布结构有待调整与优化。     

我国绿色政府模式研究

文章阐述了绿色政府的内涵及国内外在构建绿色政府方面作出的努力．论述了在我国建设绿色政府的迫切性。在此基础上针对我国国情．首次提出了基于绿色政府文化和绿色政府考核体系的我国绿色政府建设模式．并对其内容作了简要叙述。     

试析绿色技术创新的制度障碍

绿色技术创新是实现可持续发展的条件。绿色技术是符合生态规律和经济规律的技术,是一种富有外部正效应的技术,也是一种具有更多规定性、需要更多投入、风险更大的技术。制度环境是影响技术创新的重要因素。在现行的制定环境下,不仅市场制度和社会调控制度存在不利于绿色技术创新的因素,而且急功近利的观念和教育体制也都存在阻碍绿色技术创新的因素。     

The responsibility of futurists in strategic foresight — Hungarian examples

The Futures Studies Department at the Corvinus University of Budapest conducted a few strategic foresight projects at the beginning of the twenty-first century. The goals of two projects were to increase the regional competitiveness of two towns in Hungary; whereas, two other projects dealt with the long-term, 15- to 20- year-long, macro-development opportunities of Hungary. They focused on defining social trends that influence the long-term decision-making environment of the regions and the country. The two types of experience made it possible to enhance strategic foresight by defining the role and responsibility of professional futurists and average, everyday people.     

绿色技术创新的路径思考——基于绿色壁垒的理性分析

排除贸易保护主义因素,绿色壁垒是可持续发展思想和环保意识提高的产物,对环境和技术具有正的外部效应。我国出口企业环境意识薄弱,缺乏绿色技术创新能力是遭遇绿色壁垒的根本原因。绿色技术创新是突破绿色壁垒的手段,推行绿色技术创新需要进行合理的制度安排、强化企业的内部动力机制和转变生产模式。