On Constructive Technology Assessment and Limitations on Public Participation in Technology Assessment

The paper reviews selected literature on the theory and practice of constructive technology assessment (CTA), which represents a promising approach for managing technology through society. CTA emphasises the involvement and interaction of diverse participants to facilitate 'upstream' (or anticipatory) learning about possible impacts of technology and socially robust decision-making. The paper seeks to identify limitations of CTA, as these relate to the broadening of debate about nascent, controversial technology. In particular, it considers the relevance of CTA to the achievement of more democratic decision-making about technology. In addition, the paper directs attention towards differences in participants' discursive capacities and rhetorical skills that may affect the role and contribution of non-expert citizens in technology assessment. The paper draws upon the debate between Habermas and Foucault to suggest promising avenues for future research based on technology assessment conceptualised as discourse. It concludes that the theory and practice of CTA may be improved by addressing explicitly possible structural limitations on the broadening of debate, whilst invoking a notion of technology assessment as discourse to point up cultural, subjective or cognitive limitations on agency.     

Rethinking constructive technology assessment as democratic, reflective, discourse

This paper conceives technology assessment potentially to be a constructively democratic, reflective and discursive process. The paper reviews selected literature focusing on the notion and practice of constructive technology assessment (CTA). CTA aims to produce better technology in a better society, and emphasises the early involvement of a broad array of actors to facilitate social learning about technology and potential impacts. The paper presents a new perspective of CTA based on a discussion of contiguous research on the social implications and control of technology, reflexivity and reflection in the ‘risk society’ (Beck), and on public understanding and participation in science and technology. The paper concludes that the future development of CTA is well served by improved articulation or revision of core elements of the approach, for example by emphasising a concern for interaction and socio-technical criticism based on democratic principles. In addition, to conceive of CTA as a discursive activity may facilitate the analysis of the limitations in practice on the role of non-experts participating in technology assessment and the capacity for self-reflection of all actors.     

Towards New Forms of Participatory Technology Development

Technical change is crucial for sustainable development. Yet, it is unclear what kind of technology policy would suit such development. In this article constructive technology assessment (CTA) is offered as a model. CTA proposes broadening design by bringing together all interested parties early on and throughout the design process. CTA activities are not automatically directed at substantive goals such as those incorporated in the notion of sustainable development. The purpose of CTA is to shape technology development processes in such a way that social aspects are symmetrically considered in the process itself. To evaluate and shape CTA processes three criteria are offered: anticipation, reflexivity and social learning. These criteria are applied to three case-studies to illustrate their usefulness.     

Technology assessment network building: The International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions

With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994.     

科技安全风险评估及监测预警系统构建研究

科技领域安全是国家安全的重要组成部分，而复杂的国际局势、严苛的技术限制以及当代科技面临的颠覆性发展趋势已引发一系列关涉科技安全的重大问题，给我国国家安全和公共安全带来严峻挑战。从风险评估与安全预警视角出发，依循“变量识别—数据评估—安全预警—预案调用”的预警思路，运用专家访谈、扎根理论和层次分析法，构建科技安全风险评估框架，并提出科技安全监测预警系统构建逻辑。其中，科技安全风险评估框架主要包括要素性、自反性、自主性、保障性风险4类关键指标；监测预警系统建立在风险评估框架基础上，主要包含警情评估、警情报告、管理决策、应急预案4个子系统。基于研究结果，针对我国科技安全监测预警系统构建提出相关建议，以期为我国科技治理及保障科技安全提供新思路。     

城镇生态系统健康评价实证研究

采用生态系统健康理论分析城镇生态环境问题具有较强的理论意义和现实意义。本文着重构建了城镇生态系统健康评价的指标体系和模糊评价模型，提出了评价标准。以江苏茅麓镇为例，对其生态系统健康进行评价，指出其制约因子并提出了相应调控对策，以期为茅麓镇优化生态系统结构和完善系统功能提供科学依据。     

区域技术预见的结果评价及其启示

区域技术预见在我国不能得到广泛推广应用的一个重要原因,是实践者没有明确预见活动能为区域发展带来什么样的结果。因此,从分析区域预见活动的投入入手,探讨了区域技术预见可能为区域带来的结果以及对结果的评价,并进一步提出了有效实施区域技术预见的策略,从而为区域实施预见活动提供有益的指导。     

多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中的应用研究

目的多指标决策分析法作为一种重要的决策分析方法,其在卫生技术评价中的应用引起了国内外许多学者的关注。本文主要研究多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中应用的可能性。方法选取多指标决策分析的两种类型,将其应用于具体的卫生技术评价案例中进行分析。结果在满足一定的假设条件下,多指标决策分析可以应用于卫生技术评价。结论在卫生技术评价中引用多指标决策分析,仍有许多相关问题有待深入研究和探索。     

Social Licence in Design: Constructive technology assessment within a mineral research and development institution

Technological innovation in the minerals industry must be driven by the need to improve performance according to social, as well as environmental, safety, efficiency and production criteria. This paper outlines the possibilities and rationale for incorporating constructive technology assessment (CTA) into technology research and development within the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Minerals Down Under National Research Flagship (MDU). MDU represents an $80 million per year investment in transformational mineral technology. The paper reports on the development of a process called Social Licence in Design to address the future social challenges and opportunities of the technologies that may arise during implementation. Social Licence in Design utilises social research techniques to account for the perspectives and values of decision makers and likely stakeholders. Interviews with senior technologists and social scientists within MDU reveal the institutional context into which the Social Licence in Design process is to be situated and highlight key factors that may inhibit or enhance its uptake. Despite the long history of CTA the paper is the first to report on the incorporation of a CTA process to address the social implications of technology development within a mineral R&D institution.     

OECD规制影响评价制度及其对中国重大科技决策评价制度之启示——兼论《科技进步法》第十三条

重大科技决策评价制度在保障重大科技决策的科学性、民主性方面发挥着关键作用，然而我国现行《科技进步法》第十三条对重大科技决策评价的相关规定过于抽象和单薄，有必要加以完善。在行政行为类型化理论中，科技决策作为一项具体行政行为是规制的一种表现形式。通过对规制影响评价制度的确立背景、运作流程及成效进行分析发现，规制影响评价在OECD成员国中已经取得明显实效并得到广泛认可。同时，我国重大科技决策评价制度在现有法律规定上至少存在如下三方面不足：尚未构建完整的事前事后评价机制；现有重大科技决策咨询制度可操作性不强；现有相关制度保障尚不健全。因此，从完善我国重大科技决策评价制度角度出发，提出如下3点建议：在现有事前评价的基础上增加事后评价机制；从整体上完善重大科技决策评价法律保障；细化重大科技决策评价所需的程序性规范。     

Technology and military criteria: broadening the theory of innovation

The assessment and forecasting of technological innovation should include an evaluation of both civilian and military criteria. While the underlying economic causes of technological innovation generate considerable interest, these evaluations only rarely pay adequate attention to military factors. Spinoffs from military work to the private sector often circumvent the market constraints on technological development, suggesting the limitations of purely economic analysis.Military resources provide the greatest support to civilian technologies that are concurrent with military interests. Likely areas of military-civilian synergism can be identified through the evaluation of military interest. This includes rapid mobilization of large forces of personnel and materials. Among the areas of concentrated interest are the centralization of command and control, and its support requirements of transportation, communication, standardization, and subordination. Also, the nature of violent conflict and the organization of large military forces frequently argues for the removal of human intervention through technology. The corresponding civilian interests include business criteria for obtaining economies of scale, expanding revenues, and reducing labor cost through labor productivity.This paper explores the possibility of broadening the economic theories of technological change by incorporating military influence. The theory presented views military and civilian technology as encompassing both unique and overlapping design criteria. The overlapping region defines technological criteria likely to experience faster than average development. Specific military criteria are derived from the functional requirements of violent conflict—military strategy, tactics, and organization. Compatible and incompatible civilian criteria can then be explored.     

What drives innovativeness in industrial clusters? Transcending the debate

The paper throws new light on the debate about the role playedby local knowledge spillovers (LKS) as a driver of regionalinnovative activity. It transcends the regional level of analysisthat has been commonly adopted in the literature so far, usinginsights from the evolutionary theory of the firm. This makesit possible to derive a typology of mechanisms through whichregional agglomeration may stimulate learning and innovationat the firm level. When this typology is brought to bear onthe extant approaches in the debate, the contrasting viewpointscan be reconciled to some extent. The main conclusion is thatlittle theoretical ground for the LKS debate remains.     

Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测——以液晶显示技术为例

基于TRIZ和产品技术进化理论,建立了产品技术成熟度预测模型,提出以专利数据库为数据源、以技术进化标准曲线图为对标的产品技术成熟度预测方法。以液晶显示技术为例,剖析了该方法在高新技术企业中的具体应用。研究结果表明:液晶显示技术已进入成熟期后期、即将步入退出期,应开发新生代核心技术进行激进创新,使产品技术进化路线移入新一轮S型曲线。     

An Empirical Assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy*

In the 18th century, a fierce political debate broke out in Sweden about the causes of an extraordinary depreciation of the currency. More specifically, the deteriorating value of the Swedish currency was blamed arbitrarily on monetary causes (e.g., the overissuing of banknotes) and on non-monetary causes (such as balance-of-payments deficits). This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of this so-called “Swedish Bullionist Controversy”. The results of vector autoregressions suggest that increasing amounts of paper money did give rise to inflation and a depreciation of the exchange rate. Conversely, non-monetary factors were probably less important for these developments.     

Integration of Technology Assessment in R&D Management Practices

This paper addresses the question of how technology assessment (TA) can be best integrated in the managment of R&D both at the laboratory and the policy level. The main objective is to present a conceptual framework to situate and evaluate the actual and possible TA infrastructure in Europe. The paper consists of three distinct sections. In section one, the concept and practice of TA are briefly introduced with an emphasis on their actual institutionalizations in Europe. Section two presents a conceptual framework of R&D managment at four levels: the R&D environment, the R&D institution, the R&D process, and the R&D project. The relationship between TA and R&D management is explored for each of the four levels. Finally, in section three the concept of and motives for TA integrated within the laboratory work of scientists and engineers are presented. The basic argument of this paper is that by promoting the integration of TA in R&D managment practices, a significant contribution can be made to (1) increasing the cost-efficiency of research and (2) increase the social responsiblity of scientists. The authors therefore draw up a conceptual framework for the development of R&D-integrated TA practices called Integrated Technology Assessment (ITA).     

环境规制科技政策对科技进步与经济增长的影响

基于事件系统理论构建系统性、多层次性和综合性的政策量化分析框架，从政策属性、政策目标和政策工具3个维度对我国1985—2015年制定的198条环境规制科技政策进行量化研究。基于政策评估中的工具理性和价值理性两个层面，从环保科技进步效果和经济增长效应两个维度对环境规制科技政策有效性进行评估。研究发现，我国环境规制科技政策工具及政策工具协同对环保科技进步和经济增长的影响存在显著方向性差异。为此，进一步讨论了我国环境规制科技政策工具及工具协同的政策有效性评估结果，可为我国环境规制科技政策的完善和有效实施提供决策依据。     

Should the Cost-of-living Index Provide the Conceptual Framework for a Consumer Price Index?

In some countries, the cost-of-living (COL) index serves as the conceptual framework for the CPI, but it has been rejected in others. This paper reviews issues that have arisen in the statistical agency debate and in the economics literature on the COL index, including rhetorical matters which have influenced the debate. I contend that COL theory is useful as a decision-making framework in estimating components of the CPI, and that COL index theory provides appropriate guidance for measuring consumer inflation, contrary to the view that has been adopted for the European HICP and expressed by an advisory committee for the RPI.     

欧洲卫生技术评估网络发展概况

面对医疗技术更新、民众医疗服务需求提升和医疗投入有限等多重卫生系统压力,欧洲国家力图在其卫生政策制定、管理、报销或监管过程中利用卫生技术评估（Health Technology Assessment,HTA）方法,在充分进行医疗组织、经济、社会和伦理等方面论证的基础上,综合透明、科学和可靠的证据,确定卫生政策优先领域,推动卫生体系的健康可持续发展。欧洲在卫生技术评估方面的有益经验,对我国强化卫生技术评估理念和做法,支持卫生政策制定,具有积极的借鉴意义。     

区块链技术国外研究述评

区块链技术为多种服务提供了一种新型信任机制，具有很强的催化效应，可能对多种社会服务带来颠覆性影响。基于国际组织和各国政府对区块链技术的预判与实践，分析Web of Science中有关区块链技术的研究论文。研究认为，目前区块链技术研究主要聚焦在隐私保护、智能合约、资源损耗、安全性和扩展性等方面，存在理论研究落后于实践发展、过多集中在比特币环境、一些重要问题尚未涉及、缺乏承载相关研究成果的重要期刊等问题。对此，提出区块链技术的研究者应该加强产学研合作、拓展研究内容、关注未来应用、打造一批重要刊物等建议。