The impact of world manufacturing growth on Australia's trading position

Michal Kalecki's pricing analysis is found to provide a fruitful basis for an examination of the impact of world business cycles on Australia's international trade. Australia's terms of trade are found to move procyclically with world manufacturing production as implied by application of the analysis. Implications of the change in the terms of trade for domestic producers and consumers are developed by adapting Kalecki's analysis to an open economy context. Fluctuations in world manufacturing are found to have a negligible impact on Australia's export volume and a strong positive impact on her import volume as expected based on application of the adapted analysis.     

Kalecki on money and finance

It is argued that Kalecki had a greater appreciation of the role of the monetary sector than has been generally recognized, and that Kalecki presented ideas which can be seen as now embedded in the structuralist post Keynesian analysis of endogenous money and in the circuitist approach. Six key features of Kalecki's monetary analysis are identified. The paper outlines Kalecki's dismissal of the ‘Pigou effect’ and the ‘Keynes effect’, and then discussion the relationship between the ‘principle of increasing risk’ and the nature of the supply of credit. It discusses interest determination in Kalecki's writings and the manner in which he distinguished different types of money.     

Profits in the UK economy: some Kaleckian models ∗

Official statistics on profits in the UK economy during the 1980s show a substantial increase in the share of profits in GDP after 1981. However, these figures are based on companies' own returns which have been distorted by changes in accounting practices and taxation, privatization and the arbitrary allocation of profits by multinational companies. Kalecki's theory of profits provides a way of systematically determining gross profits in national income. However, the use of this method is complicated by the absence of data on the distribution of savings and consumption between wages and profits, and Kalecki's own estimates of the equation appear to be flawed in their statistical methodology.

A number of ways of overcoming the distributional problem are explored in this paper, using data from the sectoral capital accounts of the UK during the 1980s. The methodology suggested by Asimakopulos to estimate Canadian profits turns out to be the weakest on theoretical and statistical grounds. All estimates are highly correlated with the officially reported profit series. However, in real terms (defined in Keynes' wage units as a proportion of implied wage income), they all show a profits cycle in which real profits in the second half of the 1980s are lower than they were at the end of the 1970s. The conclusion that there was no upward trend in the profits cycle suggests that the UK government's supply-side policies, designed to make the economy more profitable, did not achieve this purpose during the 1980s.

This article is an investigation of what happened to profits in the UK using Kaleckian models of how profits are determined to supplement the rather unreliable data that is provided by the government's Central Statistical Office. In the course of the investigation, a number of different models derived from Kalecki's fundalmental profits equations are presented. Two of them turn out to have a high correlation with the official published data, but contrary to that information suggest that there has been no upward trend in profits.     

Lange's 1938 model: dynamics and the “optimum propensity to consume”

Abstract

Oskar Lange's 1938 article “The Rate of Interest and the Optimum Propensity to Consume” is usually associated with the original IS-LM approach of the late 1930s. However, Lange's article was not only an attempt to illuminate Keynes's main innovations but the first part of a wide project that included the development of a theory of economic evolution. This paper aims at showing that Lange's article can help in illuminating critical aspects of this project: in particular, Lange's idea that a synthesis between Kaldor's and Kalecki's theories and that of Schumpeter, might have been possible and that it represented (in intentions) a “modern” and consistent reconstruction of the Marxist theory of the business cycle. Section 2 clarifies Lange's early reflection on dynamics. Section 3 centres on Lange's 1938 static model and indicates the effects of a change of saving on investment. Section 4 suggests a dynamic reconstruction from which are addressed important arguments raised by Lange in a series of papers written between 1934 and 1942.     

From profit margins to income distribution: Joan Robinson's odyssey from marginal productivity theory

The point of departure for this paper is a 1941 Note on profit margins co-authored by Joan Robinson and Nicholas Kaldor that remained unpublished until 2000. Robinson's reviews of Henry Clay's The Problem of Industrial Relationships, Bresciani Turroni's The Economics of Inflation, and Roy Harrod's Towards a Dynamic Economics, along with her 1965 Cambridge Inaugural Lecture, may be interpreted as analogous documents that develop her critique of neoclassical wage theory and identify the money wage as the economy's ‘key’ price. These publications were critical steps toward the wage mark-up hypothesis and Post-Keynesian support of incomes policy to contain inflation. Robinson's Harrod review anticipated her later ideas about economic growth. With Kalecki's notion of ‘the degree of monopoly’ and her own concept of neo-mercantilism (from the Inaugural Lecture), these themes are nascent in the Robinson–Kaldor Note on profit margins.     

Book Reviews

This paper reformulates Kalecki's investment models based on 'the principle of increasing risk'. First, it is shown that in his model risk can be interpreted as a conditional probability of bankruptcy of a firm, or the 'hazard rate' in reliability theory. Secondly, a simple static Kaleckian investment model is developed based on this interpretation. In the model, a slightly modified Kaleckian optimality condition for investment holds. It is also shown that, as Kalecki correctly pointed out, the principle of falling marginal efficiency of capital (or investment) is not required to obtain a finite level of investment. Finally, I consider sequential investment in an intertemporal model. In this model, a modified version of the Kaleckian optimality condition determines investment. In addition, as Kalecki emphasized, his increasing risk limits the level of investment even without increasing and convex adjustment costs associated with investment, by which the finite rate of investment is derived in the macroeconomics literature.     

International Competition and the Degree of Monopoly in Australian Manufacturing

Pricing behaviour in open economies is examined by adapting Kalecki's analysis of pricing in closed economies. The parameters of the resulting pricing equation are estimated using data for a sample of Australian manufacturing industries. These estimates are then used to calculate measures reflecting the degree of monopoly for an open economy, which are compared with the ratio of aggregate proceeds to aggregate direct costs as a measure reflecting the degree of monopoly for a closed economy.     

Of clouds and clocks and Keynes: conceptions of reality and the growth of knowledge function of money ∗

In this paper, John Maynard Keynes' General theoryand the concept of money are given an evolutionary interpretation. This interpretation is based on Karl Popper's delightful essay ‘Of clouds and clocks: an approach to the problem of rationality and the freedom of man’. The essay presents two things: Popper's conception of indeterminism and his general theory of abstractions. Popper's general theory concerns the role of abstractions and rule-governed, hierarchical systems of abstractions in structuring an indeterministic and uncertain world. He applies his general theory to science.Popper maintains that science is an abstract, rule-governed, linguistic process that facilitates criticism as a way of learning about our world. Popper calls this the growth of knowledge function of science. Popper's general theory can be applied to Keynes' General theory. Following Popper, I argue for a conception of the economy as a rule-governed, monetary language of commerce that facilitates critically minded inquiry in the domain of ordinary economic transactions. A monetary system facilitates the growth of commonsense knowledge in the economy. I call this the growth of knowledge function of money. An awareness of indeterminism and a growth of knowledge like function of money seem to pervade Keynes' General theory.     

Logic,rationality and knowledge in Ramsey's thought: reassessing ‘human logic’

This paper reconsiders Frank Ramsey's essay on subjective probability (1926) as a consistent way to articulate logic, rationality and knowledge. The first part of the essay builds an axiomatic theory of subjective probability based on ‘formal logic’, defining rationality as choice-consistency. The second part seems to open up different horizons: the evaluation of degrees of belief by ‘human logic’. Because of the interest Keynes (1931) had taken in ‘human logic’, it was considered to be a possible alternative to the formal logic underlying the neoclassical theory of individual behaviour. The analysis of Ramsey's method in the entire paper, the relation between logic and rationality it constructs and the conception of uncertainty it reveals, lead me to note on the contrary that Ramsey's human logic was a complementary logic rather than an alternative to formal logic. Defining a standard to evaluate beliefs formation according to a frequentist criterion, it completes a normative representation of rationality which supports an original theory of knowledge that appears more in line with further developments of neoclassical methodology than with Keynesian economics.     

The Impact of Technical Change and Profit on Investment in Australian Manufacturing

This paper combines W.E.G. Salter's analysis of capital-embodied technical change with Kalecki's analysis of financing investment from retained profits to provide a Post Keynesian model of investment with process innovation, which is applied to data from Australian manufacturing industries. The approach to process innovation taken in this study is to identify new capital stock introduced through physical investment, which results in the older vintage stock being decommissioned as technologically obsolete. In the estimated model, the profit factor is used as a measure of the ability to invest, and the rate of labour productivity growth factor reveals the inducement to invest as this rate acts as a proxy for technical change in the Kaleckian investment-ordering model. The two factors combine to explain the accumulation process, both level and variability, and its link to technical change. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that investment, incorporating technical change, enables industries to become sustainable into the uncertain future with varying states of investment instability.

…technical progress cannot be regarded as automatic and independent of accumulation. (Salter, 1966, p. 72)     

Consumption in Contemporary Capitalism: The Backward Art of Living

Western economies have undergone a significant transformation over the last half a century as they have moved away from a commitment to full employment, going from activist fiscal policy to its abandonment with the adoption of budgetary austerity. This is not because of any technical or physical incapacity to achieve full employment. Analyzing the broad macroeconomic experience of Canada and the United States in the post-WWII era, the article finds that this growing unemployment has essentially resulted from a deliberate policy choice not to stimulate sufficiently demand via fiscal measures. Learning from the experience of the Great Depression, Michal Kalecki had offered an explanation for this type of policy response in favor of rising long-term unemployment. This article recognizes the relevance and appropriateness of Kalecki's analysis and seeks to determine whether the Minskian institutional proposal for achieving effective full employment (via government as the employer of last resort) would withstand an original Kaleckian critique.     

‘Anecdotal myths’: Tinbergen's influence on Harrod's growth theory

Abstract

In the history of economic theory, Harrod's transition from the explanation of business cycles in An Essay on the Trade Cycle (1936) to his well‐known growth theory in ‘An essay in dynamic theory’ (1939) has always been surrounded by some degree of speculation. One of the topics in that area of speculation concerns the (degree of) influence exerted by Tinbergen on the development of Harrod's growth theory during the 1936–9 period.

This paper argues that Tinbergen's influence on Harrod's work mainly took place on formal, mathematical, grounds, leaving methodological matters untouched. This matter is of some importance in understanding the success of what was initially considered by others as a ‘dynamic’ extension of the Keynesian research programme and later evolved, through the work of Tinbergen and Solow, into a neoclassical growth theory.     

Trade Unions Face a New Western Capitalist Society

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen was hostile to work in economic theory that is based on the notion of a continuum of agents. In this essay, I use this hostility as a point of departure for an exploration of his views concerning representation, language and theory as they pertain to what he saw as economic science. In particular, I view his methodological stance to the "doing of economics," as expressed primarily in his epistemological writings, in the light of Richard Wollheim's reflections on "art and its objects."     

On Lionel McKenzie's 1957 intrusion into 20th‐century demand theory

In this essay, we read McKenzie's 17 paragraphs of 1957 on “Demand Theory Without a Utility Index” as an opening to the narrative of 20th‐century demand theory and as a lever for the understanding of what has now reached culmination as the neoclassical theory of demand. In tracking the influence of these paragraphs on both theoretical and applied work, we also use them as a foothold for reflection on the process of theorizing to argue for the view that one cannot neglect the (changing) problematic that the theory is adduced to address, that the historical narrative behind a particular theorem is indispensable in understanding the theorem itself. This implicit theorizing of the process of theorizing then forces us to consider Stigler's distinction between textual and scientific exegesis and confront it to a second‐order level of theorizing, and thereby bring out the continuity, possibly not quite seamless, between a theorem and its history.     

The Scottish Tradition in Economics and the Role of Common Sense in Adam Smith's Thought

This essay examines the notion of a 'Scottish Tradition' and the role of common sense in Adam Smith's thought. It is a contribution to the contemporary literature on the 'Scottish Approach' and on the historical investigation of Adam Smith's intellectual background. It argues that a notion of common sense was behind Smith's view of science and that it may provide an epistemological foundation for the Scottish Tradition. The essay attempts to show how the notion of common sense may be seen as a way of emphasising the role of reason and judgement in the conceptualisation of phenomena with pragmatic and aesthetic content.     

Gordon's accumulation theory: The highest stage of stadial theory

This essay examines the intellectual antecedents of David Gordon's social structure of accumulation (SSA) approach. It argues that Gordon's systematic treatment of long periods of growth and stagnation is the culmination of a long Marxist tradition which began early in the twentieth century with the work of Hilferding, Bukharin, and Lenin. Contemporary Marxist analyses of the recovery of capitalism from the great depression of the late nineteenth century parallel that developed by Gordon for the post-World War II period. Gordon's approach is genealogically linked to these turn of the century analyses through the work of Ernest Mandel on late capitalism and through the American monopoly capital school. Gordon's key contribution is to transform the early Marxist theory of the highest stage of capitalism into a general theory of capitalist stages     

Japanese Consumption,External Disequilibrium and their Statistical Measurement

Georgescu-Roegen's work is usually divided into two categories, his earlier work on consumer and production theory and his later concern with entropy and bioeconomics beginning with his 1966 introductory essay to his collected theoretical papers published in the volume Analytical Economics. Most economists usually praise his earlier work on pure theory and ignore his later work which is highly critical of neoclassical economics. Those economists sympathetic to his later work usually take the position that he “saw the light” and gave up neoclassical theory some time in the 1960s to turn his attention to the issues of resource scarcity and social institutions. It is argued here that there is an unbroken path running from Georgescu's work in pure theory in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s, through his writings on peasant economies in the 1960s, leading to his preoccupation with entropy and bioeconomics in the last 25 years of his life. That common thread is his preoccupation with “valuation.” The choices our species makes about resource use and the distribution of economic output depends upon our valuation framework. Georgescu-Roegen's work begins in the 1930s with a critical examination of the difficulties with the hedonistic valuation framework of neoclassical economics, moves in the 1960s to the conflict between social and hedonistic valuation, and culminates in the 1970s and 1980s with his examination of the conflict between individual, social, and environmental values. This paper traces the evolution of Georgescu-Roegen's thought about valuation and the environmental and social policy recommendations which arise out of his bioeconomic framework.     

Gender and economics; Islam and Polygamy - a question of causality

Beginning by contrasting and comparing the fields of (feminist) anthropology and economics, this essay is a response to parts of Barbara Bergmann's article, “Becker's Theory of the Family: Preposterous Conclusions.” In attempting to expose the fallacies in Becker's discussion of the altruism of polygamous families, Bergmann stereotypes polygamous families and conflates Muslims and polygamous societies in the process. Further, she assumes oppression, arguing that most women in the polygamous families (i.e., Muslims) under discussion have an “abysmal status.” This essay argues for acknowledging our social location as researchers, not overgeneralizing about highly diverse societies and the varieties and experiences of women's lives, not assuming oppression, and viewing neither Islam nor polygamy as necessarily central determinants of the conditions of women's lives. Qualitative and quantitative examples of variations in African, Asian, and Middle Eastern women's lives are given – intersecting Muslim/non- Muslim, polygamous/nonpolygamous, Arab/non-Arab, poor/not-so-poor/ rich, rural/urban, and high/low “status” (with variations in health, politics, economics, and family life within and among countries).     

China: Towards a new model of development

This essay argues that changes in China's circumstances require a different model for the Chinese economic development. Because China's circumstances are different from that of other countries, the model for China inevitably needs to be different from that of elsewhere. In line with the central ideas, the essay discusses extensive issues regarding China's economic development such as export growth model, innovation, property rights, tax policy, social insurance, etc.     

Friedrich List and the Imperial origins of the national economy

This essay offers a critical reexamination of the works of Friedrich List by placing them in the context of nineteenth-century imperial economies. I argue that List's theory of the national economy is characterised by a major ambivalence, as it incorporates both imperial and anti-imperial elements. On the one hand, List pitted his national principle against the British imperialism of free trade and the relations of dependency it heralded for late developers like Germany. On the other hand, his economic nationalism aimed less at dismantling imperial core–periphery relations as a whole than at reproducing these relations domestically and expanding them globally. I explain this ambivalence with reference to List's designation of imperial Britain as the prime example of successful economic development and a model to be emulated by late industrialisers. List thereby fashioned his ideas on national development out of the historical experience of an empire whereby he internalised its economic logic and discourse of the civilising mission. Consequently, List's national economy culminated in an early vision of the global north–south relations, in which the global industrial-financial core would expand to include France, Germany and the USA, while the rest of the world would be reduced to quasi-colonial agrarian hinterlands.