中国数字经济 "十四五"发展趋势特征分析

"十三五"期间,我国数字经济持续快速增长,质量效益明显提升,截至2020年底,我国数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重达7.8％,发展活力不断增强.根据赛迪顾问调查数据,中国数字经济发展指数自 2018 年逐渐超越 GDP指数且差距不断扩大,2020年4季度中国数字经济发展指数达到161.1,三年增长逾60％,数字经济对GDP增长的拉动力日益增强,已然成为国家经济发展的关键引擎.     

完善我国教育投资的对策

1.加大教育投入力度,提高财政教育支出水平。教育支出占GDP的比重是衡量教育投入水平的重要指标之一。我国经济学家厉以宁等人实证研究得出结论,当人均GDP达到800-1000美元时,要实现教育与经济的良性发展,公共教育支出占GDP比重必须达到的下限为4.07％-4.25％,而我国目前2％左右的比重与之差距甚远。因此,     

地方财政风险何以积重难返

1.中国地方财政收入占GDP比重低。从各国经济发展的过程来看,随着社会经济的发展,财政收入占GDP的比重将逐步提高,达到一定比例则趋于稳定。目前大部分发达国家财政收入占GDP比重都已达到了30％~40％,发展中国家也基本在25％以上。我国财政收入占GDP的比重应提高到28％-30％为宜,但中国目前达到这一比重的地区寥寥无几。可见中国存在地方财政     

警惕“中国科技威胁论”

经合组织（OECD）发布的全球科技走向报告宣称．中国2005年的研发投入已超过日本．成为全球第二大研发投入国．这可以被看作是一种”中国科技威胁论”的炒作。按中国国家统计局发布的数字．2005年研发投入为人民币2450亿元．远远低于OECD公布的数据．仅占GDP的1．34％．低于世界平均1．6％和发达国家一般2％以上的水平．而日本研发投入占GDP的比重已超过3％。OECD有此结论是因为它把与中国相关的跨国公司研发费用也统计入内了。2006年2月份中国国务院发布的《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要》预计．到2010年．全社会研究开发投入占GDP的比重达到2％，到2020年提高到2．5％以上。     

全面建设小康社会的定性分析

1.实现全面建设小康社会的目标后,我国的经济发展将跃上一个新台阶。到2020年GDP总量将达到43200亿美元,在世界占第三位,仅次于美国和日本。我国经济占全球经济的比重,将由目前的3.4％提升到7.6％。再奋斗30年,到2050年比2020年再翻两番,我国的GDP将超17万亿美元。届时,我国的经济总量将超过日本,居世界第二位,我国经济占世界经济的比重将达到12％～16％。 2.实现全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标,一     

国际比较看我国教育

世界各国教育投资的增长快于经济的增长，反映在公共教育经费占GDP的比重逐步提高。如加拿大由1965年的6％提高到1995年的7．3％．美国由5．3％提高到1994年的5．5％；     

加快经济增长方式转变 实现经济又好又快发展

自2003年我国经济进入了新一轮的经济增长周期以来．宏观经济总体处于一种平稳快速的发展态势，2003年-2006年．我国GDP增长率始终在10％以上且略有提高，2007年上半年GDP增速达到了11．5％。但经济的高增长也付出了资源和环境代价。从资源要素的投入量看，我们的产出嫂宰是比较低的。2006年，中国GDP总量占世界的比重约5．5％，重要能源资源消耗占世界的比重较高，如能源消耗24．6亿吨标准堞，占世界的15％左右；钢消费量为3．88亿吨．占30％；水泥消耗12．4亿吨，占54％,2006年,全国单位GDP能耗指标，     

浅谈经济增长方式转变与经济发展

近几年我国经济进入了新一轮的经济增长周期以来，宏观经济总体处于一种平稳快速的发展态势，2003年-2006年，我国GDP增长率始终在10％以上且略有提高，2007年上半年GDP增速达到了11．5％。但经济的高增长也付出了资源和环境代价。从资源要素的投入量看，我们的产出效率是比较低的。2006年，中国GDP总量占世界的比重约5．5％，重要能源资源消耗占世界的比重较高，     

产业数字化需要生态融合共建

当前,数字经济已经成为国民经济重要组成部分,占GDP比重逐年增加,发展速度迅速.2020 年,数字经济总量39.2 万亿元,其核心产业 GDP 占比7.8％;产业数字化规模31.7万亿元,占数字经济比重81.9％,产业数字化升级正在各行各业广泛发生.     

教育产出结构对经济增长影响的空间异质性Lai Zhihua1,2,Wang Bifeng2

以内生经济增长理论为基础,构造了纳入不同层次教育水平(初等、中等、高等教育)人力资本的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数,重点分析物质资本、技术进步水平、一般劳动力、初等教育人力资本、中等教育人力资本、高等教育人力资本对经济增长的影响.研究结果表明:各投入要素对经济增长的作用表现出明显的区域性和不平衡性;各投入要素对经济增长的作用呈现出层次性和梯度性.从模型估计结果可以看出,物质资本对经济增长的贡献最高,一般劳动力次之,各层次教育形成的人力资本对经济增长的贡献最低;经济发达地区中等、高等教育形成的人力供给对经济增长发挥重要的贡献;而经济欠发达地区的这种影响并不显著,中等教育形成的人力资本供给匮乏.     

Economic Growth and Investment in Education: How Allocation Matters

This article proposes an approach to answering two questions: first, does investment in education help growth; second, does the allocation of investment in education matter? I develop a model where individual ability is heterogeneous and education both trains students and reveals their suitability for further training. I use UNESCO data on educational enrollments and spending to estimate the efficiency of existing educational allocations in a panel of countries. A cross-country growth decomposition regression shows that the correlation of human capital capital accumulation and GDP growth is not significant in countries with poor allocations but is significant and positive in countries with better allocations.     

人口老龄化、公共人力资本投资与 经济增长*

本文利用内生化老龄化的世代交叠模型,探讨了老龄化社会中为了促进经济增长可选择的公共人力资本投资的最优相对规模和结构。本文研究表明,公共人力资本投资相对规模（即占GDP比例）和公共健康支出占比（即占公共人力资本投资比例）均与经济增长呈倒U型关系,且最优值通过老龄化对经济增长的作用表现出来。即当老龄化对经济增长有促进（抑制）作用时,政府促进经济增长的政策是提高（降低）人力资本投资相对规模和公共健康支出占比。基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,老龄化不利于经济增长,公共人力资本投资相对规模及公共健康支出占比偏大,均处在倒U型曲线的下降阶段,分别通过挤出对经济增长更具促进作用的私人投资、公共物质资本投资和公共教育支出而不利于经济增长。本文的政策含义是,政府需提高公共教育支出占比,引导和鼓励更有效率的社会私人资本进行人力资本投资,以逐步降低公共人力资本投资的相对规模。当前公共物质资本投资则需继续加强。     

SUGGESTIONS FOR TREATMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS—WITH ILLUSTRATIONS FROM INDIAN DATA*

After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling. To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.     

城乡教育差距与收入差距关系及其成因探究

利用相关年份省级面板数据，研究我国城乡教育差距与收入差距之间的关系。固定效应模型回归结果显示，与城乡基础教育阶段差距相反，中等教育阶段的差距随收入差距和经济水平增长率变化呈现先减小、后增大的非线性变化趋势；政府来源和非政府来源教育经费对不同阶段的城乡教育差距有显著而不同的影响。其成因是城乡收入差距过大导致教育资源分配不平衡、教育机会不均等。     

China’s catch-up to the US economy: decomposing TFP through investment-specific technology and human capital

We implement a neoclassical growth model that incorporates investment-specific technology (IST) modifying capital investment in the law of motion of capital and bifurcates productivity into human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) in the production function. We focus on the role of changes in the quality-adjusted price of investment goods on China’s growth by comparing the effects of IST and human capital on the decomposition of US and Chinese productivity. The results show that both human capital and IST play an important role in the decomposition of US TFP. For China, human capital accounts for an increasingly higher portion of Chinese TFP for the period 1952–2009; however, IST contributes to the explanation of TFP only after the 1979 reforms. The analysis is extended by considering the impact of IST in the consumer’s investment decision and by projecting both countries’ GDP while modelling unbalanced Chinese growth using catch-up. Our model predicts that the Chinese economy will surpass the US economy in 2024.     

Factors of production,productivity, institutions,and development: Evidence from Brazil

The economic growth and development literature emphasizes that investment in technology and physical and human capital is essential for achieving higher levels of development. Political and economic institutions are also relevant in this process. With a sample of 5,503 Brazilian municipalities, this study carries out a development accounting exercise and measures the effects of institutional quality on per capita gross domestic product (GDP), physical capital intensity, human capital stock, and productivity. The empirical results indicate that institutional quality affects GDP per capita mainly through human capital accumulation and total factor productivity.     

High skills pay off: the changing wage structure during economic transition in Poland

Economic transition turns the inherited wage structure upside down. Changes are rapid and dramatic. The Polish example shows that even in the first year of market-oriented reforms, there was a marked increase in earnings inequality, a dramatic rise in the wage premium for white-collar skills, and a significant jump in the returns to education. In contrast, skills acquired under the old system lost their value. It is younger workers who are rewarded with higher wages. The changes are spearheaded by the private sector, where inequalities and the educational premium are higher than in the public sector. Privatization, thus, has its social aspects in that it strengthens the incentive for human capital investment. This paper documents these changes and sets out possible explanations.     

"科教兴新"的数量分析--教育对经济的作用

在新经济条件下，人力资本对经济有重要的推动作用。人力资本积累途径有许多，教育是最重要方式之一。教育对经济的作用分为内部作用和外溢作用。新疆作为一个教育相对落后的地区，应继续加大教育投资，调整教育结构，改善教育环境，充分发挥教育的规模效应，推动新疆经济的新一轮快速增长。     

The economics of education and policy: Ideas for a principles course

There are many aspects of the “economics of education” that would make excellent examples for introductory economics students. The author presents two topics that are central to the economics of education and to human capital theory: the economic benefit (or “returns”) to schooling and educational attainment as an investment. There are two key concepts the author hopes students get from this discussion. The first is that there are both private and social benefits of schooling whence we derive the rationale for government intervention. The second is that educational attainment is an investment decision with both costs and benefits, and some risk.