我国股指期货市场与股票现货市场的价格关系——来自中国资本市场的经验证据

本文基于沪深300股指期货自2010年4月推出以来的日收盘价数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法分析股指期货市场与现货市场价格的领先滞后关系,结果发现:沪深300股指期货和沪深300指数现货价格之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,股指期货的价格引导着现货的价格,股指期货与现货指数之间存在着单向的因果关系,脉冲响应的结果也印证了期货价格对现货价格具有更大的冲击效应的结论。这说明股指期货的上市加强了现货市场的信息传导机制,股指期货市场的推进和健康发展有利于优化我国的资本市场结构。     

不同趋势下股指期货价格发现功能研究

本文利用沪深300指数和沪深300股指期货当月主合约的5分钟高频数据,采用线性和非线性Granger因果检验方法,对股指期货价格发现功能进行了研究。研究结果表明,在上涨趋势中股指期货收益变化领先于现货市场收益变化,股指期货具备价格发现功能;而在下跌趋势中,股指期货收益与现货收益互为Granger因果关系,股指期货市场收益与现货市场收益存在相互引导的关系。     

股票指数现货价格与指数期货价格关系的研究

股票指数期货市场是现货市场的产物，股指期货合约是以股票指数作为自己的标的物的，这决定了股指期货价格与股票现货价格之间必然存在十分紧密的关系。本文在考察指数现货与指数期货相关性的基础上，着重比较了两市场对新信息的反应速度。     

股指期货推出对现货市场影响分析——基于宏观变量剔除的实证研究

通过剔除国内经济形势、国际经济形势、投资者情绪及周内效应的影响,基于GARCH(1,1)和EGARCH(1,1)模型,对股指期货推出前后对中国现货市场价格波动性、信息效率以及现货市场非对称效应进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:沪深300股指期货的推出减小了现货市场的波动性,改善了现货市场的非对称效应,投资者对利好信息和利空信息的反应更趋理性。这表明沪深300股指期货已经初步发挥了现货市场稳定器的作用,股指期货的推出改善了信息传播的速度与质量,信息的变化能以更快的速度反映在现货市场价格上,增强了现货市场的信息效率。     

中美小麦期货价格与现货价格传递关系的比较研究

为研究我国小麦期货市场价格发现功能的发挥程度及此功能对现货市场价格的影响,本文运用Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等对中美小麦期货与现货价格传递关系进行了实证研究。结果显示：中美两国国内小麦期货与现货价格之间均存在明显的双向引导关系和长期均衡关系;我国小麦期货价格和现货价格对一个标准差信息冲击的反应均稍强于美国;我国小麦期货市场价格发现功能的发挥程度要优于美国。     

股票指数现货价格与指数期货价格关系的研究

股票指数期货市场是现货市场的产物,股指期货合约是以股票指数作为自己的标的物的,这决定了股指期货价格与股票现货价格之间必然存在十分紧密的关系.本文在考察指数现货与指数期货相关性的基础上,着重比较了两市场对新信息的反应速度.     

股指期货价格与股票现货价格的关系分析

股指期货市场是股票现货市场发展的产物 ,股指期货合约是以股票指数作为自己的标的物的 ,这决定了股指期货价格与股票现货价格之间必然存在千丝万缕的联系。文章在考察股指期货合理价格的基础上 ,着重讨论了股指期货价格与股票现货价格的趋合性以及二者变化的时间差     

沪深300股指期货上市后对中国股市影响分析

股指期货是股票现货市场衍生出的金融避险工具,是一种金融创新.它的推出是促进中国证券市场体制变革的里程碑,使我国证券市场告别单边市时代并趋向功能完整.但股指期货对中国股票市场的影响学术界存在不同观点.为此,本文通过收集股指期货推出前后相关数据,实证分析了其对标的股价指数系统风险影响以及对股票市场价格波动的影响.研究发现:股指期货的推出短期内确实造成了中国股票市场系统性风险增加;股指期货的推出使现货市场波动性减小;引入期货市场后,“旧信息”对波动性影响减小,其快速被市场吸收、反应,即信息流速加速;样本期内我国股市中不存在冲击影响的非对称性,没有杠杆效应.     

韩国KOSPI200股指期货和现货的协整关系研究

近年来,韩国股指期货市场取得了巨大成功,而我国股指期货也即将上市。因此,对韩国股指期货和现货市场的研究对发展我国股指期货有不可多得的借鉴意义。本文以韩国KOSPI200指数期货和现货为研究对象,选取韩国证券期货交易所的KOSPI200股票指数期货和现货每日收盘价格数据,通过协整理论来分析KOSPI200指数期货和现货价格之间是否有长期稳定的均衡关系。研究结果表明两者之间确实存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并建立误差修正模型来反映这种关系,模型具有较好的拟合度。期望此研究对我国即将推出的沪深300指数期货有一定的参考价值。     

上证50股指期货核心功能研究

上证50股指期货的出现对股票市场的价格形成机制和市场风险规避能力产生了重要的影响.本文将研究上证50股指期货的核心功能,一方面通过ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验验证了上证50股指期货和现货之间的价格发现功能,发现上证50股指期货对现货具有价格发现功能,现货对期货没有价格发现功能;另一方面通过使用OLS模型、VAR模型和ECM模型等静态套期保值模型研究上证50股指期货和现货之间的套期保值功能,发现上证50股指期货的套期保值的有效性较好,并且给出上证50股指期货市场的最优套期保值比率,用于实现现货市场风险的有效转移.     

股指期货对现货市场的信息传递效应分析

本文研究了股票指数合约的交易对现货市场的影响以及股指期货是否有助于现货市场在信息传递速度与效率方面的提升.利用了GARCH模型,修正GARCH模型,TGARCH模型及极端值模型,通过对香港恒生H股指期货合约引入前后样本的实证分析发现,在期货合约未上市前,波动性干扰反应在时间上的持续性效果较持久.反之,在股价指数期货合约推出后,可以观察到波动性干扰因子的影响会更快速的反应到经济体系中,显示此时的波动过程更趋稳定.由此推论出期货交易的进行加速了信息传递的效率.亦即开放期货合约的交易,对于其标的现货市场的信息传递以及市场波动性,皆具有正面的贡献.     

沪深300指数期货与现货的相互引导关系研究

沪深300指数期货是中国证券市场上目前唯一的一款股指期货产品,通过Granger因果检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应与方差分解等计量方法对其日交易数据的实证研究表明:沪深300指数期货、现货市场价格是协整的,且二者存在双向引导关系;沪深300指数期货市场对长期均衡偏离的调整力度更强,调整速度更快,对信息反应的效率更高,但在短期波动影响中,指数期货、现货市场总方差中来自期货市场的平均贡献为47.52%,来自现货市场的平均贡献为52.48%,指数现货市场对新信息融入的贡献度更高,其冲击对期货、现货市场的影响也更强烈、更持久。     

Price and volatility dynamics between securitized real estate spot and futures markets

This study is among the first to examine the price, volatility and covariance dynamics between securitized real estate spot and futures markets. It provides a distinctive and yet complementary perspective on the predictability of real estate spot return and spot volatility based on the information from the spot market alone. The results show that for the EPRA/NAREIT Europe index, the spot market tends to lead its futures market in the long run during the sample period, which can be attributed to a rather illiquid real estate futures market in sharp contrast with a voluminous spot market. Furthermore, we find the V-shaped asymmetric effect of the basis on the futures market volatility, which represents the primary channel of strong volatility transmission between securitized real estate spot and futures markets during the whole sample and the post-crisis period. This sheds light on the hedging effectiveness for the REIT index.     

碳排放权交易市场的信息流动关系——基于EUA市场和CER市场的实证研究

基于Granger因果关系检验方法和MGARCH-BEKK模型,从报酬溢出和波动溢出的角度,研究国际碳排放权交易市场中的主要商品———EUAs和sCERs各自的期货价格与现货价格之间以及两者的期货价格之间的信息流动关系。结果表明:两个市场的现货市场始终都处于价格信息中心,期货市场的价格发现功能较弱甚至未体现;信息波动溢出方面,EUA市场中期货市场处于波动信息中心,而CER市场中现货市场处于波动信息中心;EUA的期货市场与CER的期货市场之间存在相互的价格溢出效应与波动溢出效应,但EUA市场的期货价格对CER市场具有更大的波动溢出效应。     

期货市场与现货市场之间的价格研究--中国农产品市场的经验

本文借助于信息共享模型与波动溢出效应模型对我国大豆和小麦的期、现货市场之间的价格发现进行了多层次的实证研究,定量描述了期、现货市场在价格发现中作用的大小,深入刻画了我国农产品期、现货市场之间的动态关系.研究结果显示:大豆期、现货价格之间存在双向引导关系,小麦仅存在期货对现货的单向引导关系;期、现货市场均扮演着重要的价格发现角色,且期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位;期、现货市场之间均存在双向波动溢出关系,但现货市场来自期货市场的波动溢出效应均强于期货市场来自现货市场的波动溢出效应;并且,随着期货市场的发展,期、现货市场之间的波动溢出程度均呈逐渐增强态势.     

Impacts of derivative markets on spot market volatility and their persistence

In this article, we investigate the impacts of futures and options markets on the volatility of the underlying market. Unlike earlier studies, the focus is on their persistence over time. Tests on the Hang Seng index yield several interesting results that often contrast with previous findings. Empirical results suggest that the quality of new information generated by derivative trading determines the impacts on the spot market volatility. The futures market provides new, material information reducing spot market volatility. The Options market, on the other hand, generates noisy information and distorts price, which is followed by an increase in volatility and a decrease in its sensitivity to price change. While the impact of futures persists, that of options mostly disappears as the market matures. Our conjecture is that the futures market is mainly driven by informed, experienced participants, while the options market attracts new, inexperienced investors.     

Information Transmission Between NSE50 Spot and Derivative Platforms in India: An Empirical Study

In this study, we examine the information transmission process between spot, futures and options segments for the NIFTY 50 index. The data is used from 2003 to 2013. Empirical results show that the spot market leads the price discovery process followed by the futures market and then the options market. The spot market again leads in the volatility spillover process while options dominate the futures contracts. There is a univariate skewness spillover from spot as well as futures to the options platform. Further, long term bidirectional kurtosis spillover is observed between spot and futures with former playing a more dominant role.

     

Intraday return and volatility relationships between the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets

This paper analyses the intraday lead-lag relationships between returns and volatilities in the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets. Using hourly data, we jointly analyze the interactions between markets, estimating a bivariate error correction model with GARCH perturbations which captures stochastically the presence of an intraday U-shaped curve for both spot and futures market volatility. Our findings show a bidirectional causal relationship between market volatilities, with a positive feedback. This two-way transmission of volatility is consistent with market prices evolving according to a long-run equilibrium relationship, and shocks affecting both markets in the same direction. Our empirical results also support a unidirectional cross interaction from futures to spot market returns. This pattern suggests that the futures market leads the spot market in order to incorporate the arrival of new information.     

Volatility–volume co-movements: evidence from China metal markets

This article investigates the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading activity for three heavily traded metal products on the Shanghai Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Using models based on vector autoregression and generalized method of moments, we show, in particular, that futures trading activity has a strong impact on both spot and futures price volatility in copper and aluminium markets. Futures trading activity leads spot market volatility in copper and aluminium markets which suggests that futures markets have a destabilizing effect. In order to disentangle the effect of different traders’ types on asset price movements, we decompose futures trading into speculators’ and hedgers’ trading and investigate their contributions to volatility. As a robustness check, we investigate the impact of endogenous structural breaks on the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading.     

Volatility–volume causality across single stock spot–futures markets in India

This study examines the causal relationships between volatility and volume across spot and futures market for the 50 constituent stocks of the CNX NIFTY Index. Granger non-causality tests implemented using vector autoregression (VAR) and asymmetric VAR models indicate the presence of significant causal relations from both the spot and futures volume to both the spot and futures volatility. Bidirectional causal relationships between spot and futures volume were observed for almost all stocks but few stocks displayed a similar relationship between volatilities. The results highlight the importance of volume in absorbing information and its behaviour as the conduit of information.