Evolutionary macroeconomics: a research agenda

In this article, the goal is to offer a new research agenda for evolutionary macroeconomics. The article commences with a broad review of the main ideas in the history of thought concerning the determinants of economic growth and an introduction to the evolutionary perspective. This is followed by a selective review of recent evolutionary approaches to macroeconomics. These approaches are found to be somewhat disconnected. It is argued that the ‘micro-meso-macro’ approach to economic evolution is capable of resolving this problem by offering an analytical framework in which macroeconomics can be built upon ‘meso-foundations’, not micro-foundations, as asserted in the mainstream. It is also stressed that the economic system and its components are complex adaptive systems and that this complexity must not be assumed away through the imposition of simplistic assumptions made for analytical convenience. It is explained that complex economic systems are, at base, energetic in character but differ from biological complex systems in the way that they collect, store and apply knowledge. It is argued that a focus upon stocks and flows of energy and knowledge in complex economic systems can yield an appropriate analytical framework for macroeconomics. It is explained how such a framework can be connected with key insights of both Schumpeter and Keynes that have been eliminated in modern macroeconomics. A macroeconomic framework that cannot be operationalized empirically is of limited usefulness so, in the last part of the article, an appropriate methodology for evolutionary macroeconomics is discussed.     

Economic theory and comparative economic systems: A partial literature survey

This paper surveys the more abstract literature on the newly developing theory of economic systems. Works from both pure economic theory and comparative economics are discussed. The principal thesis is that, while these two literatures have developed rather independently, they share an amazingly similar framework. What is emerging is a full-fledged theory of economic systems. Emphasis is placed on the three component structures of economic systems—the information, decision-making, and incentive structures–and the normative evaluation of economic systems. J. Comp. Econ., Dec. 1978, 2(4), pp. 355–381. Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 024,053.     

State capitalism and the rent-seeking conjecture

The notion that state capitalism (an economic system “in which the state functions as the leading economic actor and uses markets primarily for political gain”) is a new form of capitalism emerging in the global arena has been recently advanced by several authors. This paper explores the problem of the nature of this system in the light of these claims to novelty. What are its main features as described by these authors? Is state capitalism distinctive from other forms of capitalism or other types of economic systems? Are we really witnessing the emergence of a new type of economic system? To address such questions the paper starts by trying to place the model of state capitalism within the traditional comparative economic systems framework. The inconclusive result leads to a different approach in which the concept of rent-seeking society is used to underlie the structural similarities between mercantilism, real life socialism and state capitalism. The article argues that the conjecture that what has been labeled “state capitalism” is yet another form of rent-seeking system is both robust and worth further investigating.     

A portfolio approach to the optimal mix of funded and unfunded pensions

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we address the optimal funding of pensions by means of portfolio choice approach. Considering the unfunded (Paygo) pension system as a ‘quasi-asset’ with hedging and diversification properties, we derive the optimal portfolio mix of funded and Paygo systems within a mean variance and Bell linear exponential models. Our analysis involves both analytical computations and empirical estimations of optimal values using real long-term data for equity, bonds and the Paygo asset for several OECD countries and several time periods covering the time span 1897–2016. We find that in most cases a mix of both systems is desirable with a larger magnitude of Paygo system in the case of the Bell framework as we capture attitudes towards asymmetry and tail risks that are typical to equity markets.     

Optimality properties of alternative systems of taxation of foreign capital income

Foreign source capital income taxes are examined from the point of view of optimal taxation. In the framework of a simple economy with international real capital flows, a taxonomy of alternative systems of such taxation is first presented, showing how crediting and other tax parameters induce what are called source-based, residence-based and related systems. Next, tax rates are determined that are optimal from a single country's point of view, given those of the others. The achievability of these rates under the various systems is analyzed. Finally, tax rates that are optimal from an international point of view are considered. Again, achievability of an international optimum under the various systems is considered, leading to the main conclusions that (i) a pure residence-based system in all countries can achieve an international fiscal optimum; (ii) it cannot, however, be sustained as an equilibrium.     

Prior Commitment and Uncertainty in Complex Economic Systems: Reinstating History in the Core of Economic Analysis

Conventional ‘neoclassical’ economics is very useful in understanding how prices are determined but less so as a general basis for understanding the economic behaviour we observe. What is not taken into account is that economic systems are dissipative structures that are complex, but incompletely connected, networks of rules. It is explained why a degree of prior commitment in decision‐making is inevitable in complex economic systems and the implications of this are examined. It is argued that economic analysis must begin with the reality that choices are made in relation to pre‐existing commitments, both with regard to economic structures built in the past and to prevailing systems of belief, when deciding what to do in a future characterised by uncertainty. It is explained how conventional economic incentives can be dealt with in such a complex historical context building upon the neoclassical perspective of Alfred Marshall over a century ago. It is argued that econometric modelling remains viable and useful in understanding behaviour in complex economic systems. It is shown how we can design and interpret time series econometric modelling from a complex systems perspective.     

Optimal dynamics of environmental quality in economies in transition1

Environmental pressures in the transition economies of the post‐Soviet era affect not only the quality of life for local populations, but also other key economic issues such as privatization and employment by posing obstacles to their progress. Most studies addressing the environment in transition economies are empirical or analyze the effect of environmental protection on economic variables without first establishing an underlying framework together with the optimal path of environmental quality during the transition. This paper presents such a framework and a policy rule for attainment of the optimal balance between capital and environmental quality in economies in transition. Furthermore, the model shows that pollution taxes or tradable pollution permits are by themselves insufficient to implement the social optimum in a decentralized economy. The results of the model are consistent with depressed economic activity in those economies during an initial phase, and with the diversity of environmental policies in both Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries and the Newly Independent States (NIS). JEL classification: Q20, P20, O13.     

DIVERSITY AND ECONOMIC EVOLUTION: FAILURES OF COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

This paper has two themes. First, diversity of relevant attributes driving the dynamics of socioeconomic systems, including industrial systems'is often needed to increase their likelihood of transiting to a superior state. However, systems left to their own devices do not always evolve to states where they possess sufficient or optimal diversity for further evolution or growth to a superior state. Evolutionary market mechanisms can be of this nature. Structural adjustment policies and globalization seem to be adding to industrial and other types of uniformity. Hence, real danger exists that global industrial structures influenced by field effects will become "piled up" and reduce the likelihood of the global economic system evolving to a superior economic state. Furthermore, diversity is an important driving force in other growth processes, e.g., those adding to the stock of knowledge. Second industrial diversity of techniques and behaviors may be potentially Paretian valuable as a means of optimal adjustment to continual technological change and as a manifestation of specialization according to differences in individual abilities and in those of organizations. Insofar as attempts at benchmarking try to ensure uniform adoption of "best practice" in industry, they are likely to be doubly damaging because short-run potential Paretian benefits are forgone, and in stifling industrial diversity they may also undermine industrial diversity as a source of future economic growth. (JEL D00, D89, O30, 014)     

Ecological pricing and economic efficiency

There is a need to accurately account for the contributions of environmental assets to the overall economy. Such accounting would permit policies that allow protection of important natural resources and aid the analytic process to determine an accurate basis for a sustainable economy. The aim is to develop an accounting framework for ecology that is sufficiently consistent with the economic framework that the two can be fruitfully combined. With appropriate definitions of the flows, the two systems can be connected into a common framework. No single measure of the system productivity and efficiency can be given for the combined system, however, until the ecosystem metabolism can be converted into economic terms. This could be done with a series of economic valuation techniques. Ecological prices could then be estimated and a single measure of ecological economic output could be given. With the net combined system input and output now in common terms, a technical system efficiency measure can logically be proposed. Because human activity inevitably involves dissipation, such emissions would now have a monetary price. Because such emissions are irrecoverable, the total output of the combined system is greater than it is under the current definition, giving rise to a technical system-wide efficiency measure.     

Optimal modularity: a demonstration of the evolutionary advantage of modular architectures

Modularity is an important concept in evolutionary theorizing but lack of a consistent definition renders study difficult. Using the generalized NK-model of fitness landscapes, we differentiate modularity from decomposability. Modular and decomposable systems are both composed of subsystems, but in the former, these subsystems are connected via interface standards, while in the latter, subsystems are completely isolated. We derive the optimal level of modularity, which minimizes the time required to globally optimize a system, both for the case of two-layered systems and for the general case of multi-layered hierarchical systems containing modules within modules. This derivation supports the hypothesis of modularity as a mechanism to increase the speed of evolution. Our formal definition clarifies the concept of modularity and provides a framework and an analytical baseline for further research.     

Optimal unemployment insurance with heterogeneous agents

The framework of a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent model is used to study the optimal design of an unemployment insurance (UI) scheme and preferences for unemployment policy reforms. In a first step, the optimal defined benefit and defined replacement ratio UI systems are obtained in simulations. Then, the question whether switching to such an optimal system from the status quo would be approved by a majority of the population is explored. Finally, the transitional dynamics following a policy change are analysed. Accounting for this transition has an important influence on the support for a policy change.     

Complex Systems Applied? The Merger that made Glaxo SmithKline

With reference to the Glaxo SmithKline (GSK) case, and more widely, this paper asks 'what's going on?' when two separate corporations choose to combine their organizational and administrative facilities to pursue asserted shared corporate goals through merger. The paper explores whether complex systems thinking can help to capture and represent the interactions that occur across different classes of agent involved in the extended merger process. It is therefore explicitly concerned with the application of complex systems in socio-economic contexts as opposed to physical or natural systems. The paper argues that in order to understand the merger phenomenon, it is important to disentangle the revealed (as opposed to assumed) rationality of different classes of economic agent--operating across the corporate sector, across regulatory regimes, and from all sides of the market/exchange process. The analysis draws attention to the ways in which that rationality is both incentivized and (economically) expressed. Further, the paper uses the Instituted Economic Process (IEP) perspective to sketch an analytical framework representing the structures and structuring of interdependent markets in the pharmaceuticals sector. It argues that these interactions are responsible for instituting particular recurrent behaviours, appearing as event regularities in terms of outcomes. It further argues that these recurrent behaviours and interactions themselves change under pressure from various parts of the system and explores how these changes are revealed in this particular merger case. The analysis describes an unfolding situation which is inherently emergent, experimental, restless, and transformatory.     

Materials-product chains: Theory and an application to zinc and PVC gutters

A framework is presented for the analysis of economic and environmental impacts of policies applied to materials-product (MP) chains. This is based on materials flows, product flows, costs, prices and optimal management of an MP chain. The main differences compared with other studies focusing on materials flows is that here the link between products or services and materials is explicitly dealt with. The framework is developed on the basis of materials balance conditions, production functions allowing for substitution, and recycling of both materials and products. After presenting theoretical MP chain-models and analytical results, an application to the problem of choosing between zinc and PVC gutters is discussed. Here optimal MP chain management decisions are presented for various policy and strategy scenarios.     

Eco-efficient choice of cropping system for reducing nitrate-N leaching in an agricultural watershed

Eco-efficiency analysis framework was used to evaluate joint economic and environmentally optimal N application rates for alternative cropping systems managed in a watershed in Atlantic Canada. Eco-efficiency indexes were estimated as the ratio of economic returns from N fertilizer application to groundwater-N leaching associated with crop production. Trade-offs between crop yield and associated reduction in groundwater-N leaching were also estimated. Data for the analysis were generated using the soil and water analysis tool modeling, and allowed for evaluating crop yield and groundwater-N leaching effects for a given crop in rotations assumed to be managed at varying N fertilizer application rates. The cropping systems evaluated included: (i) corn-based cropping systems involving corn–corn–alfalfa–alfalfa–alfalfa (CCAAA, and CCCAA) rotations; (ii) potato-based cropping systems involving potato–corn–barley–potato–corn (PCBPC and PBWPC); and (iii) vegetable-horticulture cropping system involving potato–winter wheat–carrot–corn. Cropping systems were compared under conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT) systems. Estimated eco-efficient N fertilizer rates were substantially lower than current provincial nutrient management plan (NMP)-recommended rates, and estimated maximum economic rate of nitrogen fertilizer. However, the actual amounts depended on the crop and rotation system. CCAAA-CT was the eco-efficient choice of rotation system among the corn-based cropping systems considered. Similarly, PCBPC-CT was the eco-efficient choice among the potato-based production systems. In addition, when the NMP-recommended N rate was replaced by the eco-efficient rate for the vegetable horticulture cropping system, the eco-efficient cropping system shifted from a rotation involving CT to a NT system.     

International intellectual property rights: Effects on growth, welfare and income inequality

What are the effects of strengthening developing countries’ protection for intellectual property rights on economic growth and income inequality in the global economy? To analyze this question, we develop a two-country R&;D-based growth model with wealth heterogeneity. In this growth-theoretic framework, we show that strengthening patent protection in either country increases economic growth and income inequality in both countries. Furthermore, we derive the Nash equilibrium level of patent breadth and find that it is sub-optimally low relative to globally optimal patent breadth due to the positive externality effects that are captured by a spillover parameter.     

Missing women in Indian districts: a quantitative analysis

The ratio of women to men in India reveals socially determined excess female mortality. The cultural and economic variables used to explain variations in the juvenile sex ratio are interrelated with each other and with other demographic and economic variables, and show large regional differences within India. Our empirical study is built on an extension to Sen's entitlements framework and spatial lag and spatial error econometric procedures. We find that low female labour participation (FLP) is an important determinant of anti-female child bias in regions characterised by both Indo-Aryan and Dravidian kinship systems, but where Indo-Aryan kinship predominates, mainly in Northern India, the effect of FLP is much more significant.     

The effects of economic conditions and tax structures on state tax revenue flow

Tax portfolio literature has focused on deriving the optimal composition of the tax structure for a particular state. However, tax revenue flow is influenced by both tax structure and economic conditions which are unique for each state. Therefore, the literature has been unable to generalize the characteristics of optimal tax structures. This paper examines the contribution of a state's economic condition, as well as the tax structure, to the growth and variability of tax revenue flow. In addition, the optimal tax portfolio is studied for changes in revenue growth targets and economic conditions.     

The economic viability of the railways of tropical Africa

Loss of traffic and growing deficits of most of the railway systems in tropical Africa have led to questions about the economic viability of the systems, and the need for choosing between governmental efforts to revive and continue them or phasing them out, as has been done in Sierra Leone. Analysis of costs of rail transport and the relationship of rail and road transport costs suggests that the systems are economically justifiable, particularly with adjustment of cost and revenue data to reflect true economic costs and optimal rate structures. Analysis of the density of traffic on the major routes leads to the same conclusion although some individual lines may not be justifiable on economic grounds.     

收入不平等与经济增长：移动的库兹涅茨曲线*——新时期收入分配改革的思路与意义

准确判断收入不平等对经济增长的影响，对于客观评价中国各个阶段的收入分配制度改革尤为重要。本文在统一增长理论的框架下引入收入不平等因素，构建了一个人口数量、不平等和经济增长同时内生的理论模型，并利用CGSS数据构造收入不平等指标，使用中国省际非平衡面板数据进行经验检验。研究发现：收入不平等与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系。更重要的是，随着经济发展水平的提高，倒U型曲线将逐渐向左移动，即最优的收入不平等程度随着经济发展水平的提高而逐渐降低。这一发现意味着改革开放以来，中国各个时期的收入分配制度改革均是在特定历史条件下的最优选择。本文的结论具有深刻的政策含义：为了提高经济增长率，需要进一步巩固“脱贫攻坚”成果，逐渐加大收入分配调节力度，使收入分配制度改革紧跟经济发展的步伐，根据经济发展水平不断缩小收入不平等程度。     

Designing social security - a portfolio choice approach

Public social security systems may provide diversification of risks to individuals’ life-time income. Capturing that a pay-as-you-go system (paygo) may be considered as a “quasi-asset”, we study the optimal size of the paygo system as well as the optimal split between funded and unfunded pension saving by means of a theoretical portfolio choice framework. A low-yielding paygo system can benefit individuals if it contributes to hedge other risks to their lifetime resources. Numerical calculations indicate that optimal social security systems should be at least partly paygo financed in many economies. The optimal magnitude of the paygo system depends on the specified risk concept as well as the stochastic properties of stock market returns and implicit paygo-returns.