Stochastic convergence in per capita energy consumption and its catch-up rate: evidence from 26 African countries

Using annual data from 1971 to 2014, we examine stochastic conditional convergence in per capita energy consumption for 26 low income, lower middle-income and upper-middle-income African countries. To do so, we use panel unit root tests that allow for cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks as well as the recently developed univariate Residual Augmented Least Squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root test with structural breaks. Although for most countries our evidence suggests stochastic conditional convergence, we find divergence for four countries including DR Congo, Senegal, Egypt and Botswana. Consistent with the neoclassical growth models we also examine the catch-up rate between energy consumption levels of African economies and that one of China and investigate its convergence properties. As African economies continue to grow, regional energy consumption disparity narrows, African energy consumption levels will catch up to the ones in China.     

Are OECD consumption–income ratios stationary after all?

This paper investigates the stochastic properties of the consumption–income ratio for a sample of 23 OECD countries over the period 1960–2005. For that purpose, we employ a battery of recently developed panel unit root and stationarity tests. Our findings from panel unit root tests which do not control for structural breaks appear in line with those from previous studies since they are clearly supportive of the unit root hypothesis. In stark contrast stand the results obtained from the application of a panel stationarity test with multiple breaks, which support the existence of regime-wise stationarity in OECD consumption–income ratios once we control for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. These findings are reinforced by the median-unbiased estimates of half-lives obtained from impulse-response functions which are found to be finite for the 23 OECD countries.     

Reexamining the PPP hypothesis: A nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test

In this study, we re-examine the PPP hypothesis in the light of the new developments in the unit root testing literature. The recent theoretical findings have pointed out that the real exchange rate series exhibit asymmetric nonlinear behavior. A unit root test applied to analyze the PPP hypothesis therefore, should also take into account this asymmetry inherent in the real exchange rate. Different unit root tests that consider the presence of these data features have been developed in the time series literature. However, a true attempt to test the PPP hypothesis should take a panel data approach. To this end, we propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test where the alternative hypothesis allows for symmetric or asymmetric exponential smooth transition autoregressive nonlinearity and provide its finite sample properties. We apply our test to the real exchange rates of the 15 European Union countries against the US dollar. While the results of the linear and symmetric nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root tests are against the PPP hypothesis, the asymmetric nonlinear heterogeneous panel test that we propose gives support for the PPP hypothesis as expected. Therefore, the conclusions drawn from the linear panel unit root tests or the nonlinear panel unit root tests that do not take asymmetry into account might be misleading.     

‘I’ve been to Bali too’ (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.     

Evidence on the Convergence of Per Capita Income: A Comparison of Founder Members of the Association of South East Asian Nations and the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation

This paper investigates the per capita income convergence patterns of a set of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. We obtained a time‐series analysis for stochastic convergence by applying unit‐root tests in the presence of two endogenously‐determined structural breaks. We then supplemented the results by tests that produced evidence for β convergence. The evidence shows that the relative per capita income series of ASEAN‐5 countries were consistent with stochastic convergence and β convergence, but this was not found for SAARC‐5 countries. For the ASEAN‐5 countries, the structural breaks associated with the world oil crisis and the Asian crisis impacted heavily on the convergence/divergence process.     

Removal of farm subsidies in a regional economy: a computable general equilibrium analysis

There are a number of studies that examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. The empirical findings from the extant literature for the PPP hypothesis are mixed. This article applies univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to real exchange rates for 15 Asian countries. The univariate LM unit root tests find evidence of PPP for two-thirds of the sample. The results from the panel LM unit root test support long-run PPP for the Asian countries in the sample. The results from the LM panel unit root tests differ from those of existing panel unit root tests of PPP for Asian countries that have not allowed for the existence of structural breaks.     

A REVISIT TO THE STATIONARITY OF OECD INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL UNIT‐ROOT TESTS AND THE COVARIATE POINT OPTIMAL TEST*

This paper re‐examines the stationarity of inflation rates in 19 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries with the use of cross‐sectional information. We employ the panel unit‐root tests that allow for cross‐sectional dependency and the covariate point optimal test. These tests have high power in common due to the exploitation of cross‐sectional information, and they can assist mutually to draw a concrete conclusion on inflation dynamics for all series in the panel. Our empirical results show that allowing for cross‐sectional dependency rejects the null hypothesis that all series in the panel have a unit root, implying that there is at least one stationary series in the panel. With the help of the results of the covariate test, we can distinguish the panel into a group of stationary and a group of non‐stationary series. For robustness, the two groups of series are re‐confirmed by the panel tests. Our results reveal evidence of mean reversion in inflation for 15 of 19 countries, which is significantly stronger as compared to that obtained by the state‐of‐the‐art univariate unit‐root tests.     

Convergence Across the United States: Evidence from Panel ESTAR Unit Root Test

Many empirical studies try to test whether there is income convergence across metropolitan areas in the continental United States. Drennan et al. (Journal of Economic Geography 4(5), 2004) claim that income among metropolitan economies is diverging for the period 1969–2001, after applying univariate unit root tests to the time series data. This paper brings new information to this area of study by using the nonlinear panel unit root test of the Exponential Smooth Auto-Regressive Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ESTAR-ADF) unit root test on the time series data for the period 1929–2005. Our results find evidence of stationarity for time series and thereby support beta and sigma convergence among states in a nonlinear setup. However, when the non-linear test encompasses cross section dependence as advocated by Cerrato et al. (2008), the evidence is attenuated.     

The intertemporal relation between government revenue and expenditure in the United Kingdom, 1750 to 2004

We examine the intertemporal relation between government revenue and expenditure in the UK during 1750 to 2004. We pay particular attention to long run trends by applying a battery of unit root and cointegration techniques to the data, and we use a modified Granger causality test on data spans organized around structural breaks in the series. The results suggest that, allowing for structural breaks, UK real revenue and spending are I(1) series and cointegrated and that Granger causality runs from government spending to revenue. As such, the ‘spend-tax’ hypothesis appears to best characterize the long run intertemporal relation between government revenue and spending in the UK.     

Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test

The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis in economics asserts that over time the relative price of primary goods relative to manufactured goods should experience a downward trend. To test the hypothesis, we must first establish the unit root properties of the relative price term and then regress the stationary series on a trend term. We use the quantile unit root test which allows for both smooth unknown numbers and the form of breaks in the trend function through a Fourier function to show that the relative price of 23 out of 24 primary goods is stationary. However, the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis is supported only in half of the primary commodities.     

Testing for unemployment hysteresis in nonlinear heterogeneous panels: International evidence

Nonlinear behavior of unemployment is well documented in the literature, and thus linear unit root tests may not be appropriate in this case. This paper tests for hysteresis of unemployment for 29 OECD countries through the use of a new nonlinear panel unit root test developed by Ucar and Omay (2009). The test examines the joint null hypothesis of linearity and a unit root against the alternative hypothesis of nonlinear stationarity. Large power gains are achieved by both combining cross-sectional information with nonlinearities in the data. In addition, after the unit root null being rejected, we use a sequential panel selection method suggested by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to classify the whole panel into a group of stationary countries and a group of non-stationary countries. The empirical findings show that the nonlinear panel test gives strong evidence in favor of the natural rate hypothesis of unemployment for 23 of 29 OECD countries, in contrast to those obtained by Chang's (2002) linear panel test that 17 countries display evidence of stationary unemployment.     

Quantile nonlinear unit root test with covariates and an application to the PPP hypothesis

In this article, we employ the methods initiated by Hansen (1995) to develop new quantile nonlinear unit root tests with covariates. The limiting distributions of our proposed tests are derived, which are dependent on nuisance parameter reflecting the correlation between the equation error and the covariates. To deal with this inferential difficulty, two alternative procedures based on either consistent estimate of the nuisance parameter or bootstrap implementation of the test are proposed. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed tests perform very well in finite samples and large power gains can be achieved by including correlated covariates in the testing equation. The proposed tests are applied to the PPP hypothesis. The empirical results indicate that the real exchange rates are not constant unit root processes.     

Unemployment by Gender: Evidence from EU Countries

This paper applies panel unit-root tests that allow for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence to examine the validity of hysteresis in gender unemployment rates and gender unemployment gap for a panel of 15 European countries. Addressing breaks, there is evidence to reject the null hypothesis of hysteresis for the unemployment rates and unemployment gap series. Allowing for both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneous structural breaks, this result is reverted, and we fail to reject the null hypothesis of unit root.     

Is income converging in China?

This study adopts a flexible Fourier unit‐root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to revisit the tendency towards convergence in real per capita income among provinces after economic reform in China. When a data‐generating process is non‐linear, a Fourier series not only allows for the possibility of an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown forms but also allows for the use of a low‐frequency component to capture multiple changes. Contrary to what the linear statistics suggest, our results from a flexible unit‐root test indicate that China's eastern and western regions are converging to their own specific steady states.     

STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND UNIT ROOTS IN AUSTRALIAN MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES

Abstract.  We examine the unit root properties of 16 Australian macroeconomic time series using monthly data spanning the period 1960–2004. In addition to the standard Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, we implement one- and two-break endogenous structural break ADF-type unit root tests as well as one- and two-break Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests. While the ADF test provides relatively little evidence against the unit root null hypothesis, once we allow for structural breaks we are able to reject the unit root null for just under half of the variables at the 10% level or better.     

Convergence in income inequality? evidence from panel unit root tests with structural breaks

This paper empirically tests whether there is evidence of convergence in income inequality, as predicted by several versions of the neoclassical growth model, using a large panel of annual data for the 48 contiguous states in the US over the 1916?C2005 period. By implementing the panel LM unit root test developed by Im et?al. (Oxford Bull Econ Stat 67:393?C419, 2005, Panel LM unit-root tests with trend shifts, Mimeo, 2010) that allows for the presence of structural breaks and heterogeneity in the panel, we find overwhelming evidence in support of convergence in income inequality. In addition, the results are robust to alternative inequality indicators used, different notions of stochastic convergence defined, and additional cross-sectional correlation considered.     

A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries

Existing tests of the unit root hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis of exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) nonlinearity implicitly assume symmetry under the alternative. This paper proposes a simple unit root test against the alternative of symmetric or asymmetric ESTAR nonlinearity. In the event that the unit root hypothesis is rejected, a simple test of symmetric versus asymmetric ESTAR nonlinearity is also proposed. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are straightforward to establish and finite-sample performance is studied with Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical application involving the real exchange rates of four Nordic countries against the U.S. dollar illustrates the usefulness of the new tests.     

Do shale gas and oil productions move in convergence? An investigation using unit root tests with structural breaks

This paper investigates the long-run trends of shale gas and shale oil productions by applying univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM), GARCH-based, and PANICCA unit root tests to discover the mean-reverting behaviors. We employ monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016 of shale gas withdrawals and shale oil productions in the U.S. The empirical results both on specific state/oil well and panel data show that most structural breaks emerge around 2007–2011, during which shale energy was massively produced in the U.S. and the global financial crisis and energy shock occurred. Our results also indicate that most external shocks are transitory and the trends soon converge, and that cross-state/well factors have greater potential as temporary shocks than the state-specific/well-particular components. For robust analysis, we conduct additional LM tests of natural gas and crude oil productions for a comparison with the unconventional shale energy. The unit root test of Narayan and Popp (2010) on shale gas and shale oil productions help us to find more stationary evidence. Overall, we present powerful findings of the mean-reversion property and propose critical implications for authorities and market participants.     

Convergence in Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions Among G7 Countries: A TAR Panel Unit Root Approach

The subject of this paper is the examination the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions of the G7 countries during the 1960–2005 period in a nonlinear panel analysis framework. In this approach, first the linearity of the series was tested, and when the linearity was rejected, the threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root test, which splits the data into two regimes, was employed to examine the stationarity properties of the series. Because the null of linearity was rejected in the first step, we tested the stationarity of the series using the TAR panel unit root test. In the TAR panel unit root test, we found that the United Kingdom was the transition country whose per capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions determined the switch from one regime to the other. The results showed that convergence existed in the first regime and divergence, in the second. When we tested whether absolute or conditional convergence existed, we found that the per capita CO₂ emissions were conditionally converging in the first regime.     

Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?

The goal of this paper is to examine whether per capita GDP for 15 Asian countries is panel stationary. We apply a panel test for stationarity that allows for multiple structural breaks developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (Econ J 8: 159–179, 2005). Our main findings are: (1) when we apply conventional tests, such as the ADF and KPSS univariate tests without structural breaks, we find little evidence for stationarity; (2) when we apply the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks, we find evidence of stationarity for 10 out of 15 countries; and (3) when we apply the KPSS panel test with multiple structural breaks, we find overwhelming evidence of panel stationarity of per capita real GDP for different panels of Asian countries.