A reexamination of the Nelson-Plosser data set using recursive and sequential tests

The present paper applies to the Nelson-Plosser data set the recursive, rolling, and sequential tests proposed by Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (1992) for unit roots in the presence of mean or trend breaks. Unlike Perron's method, these three types of test endogenize the break point in the mean or trend and thus are more appealing in empirical studies. The (reverse) recursive test indicates rejection of the unit root null in industrial production and unemployment rate. The sequential test indicates that nominal GNP and common stock prices are stationary with a break in the mean.Helpful comments from G. S. Maddala and two anonymous referees are greatly acknowledged.     

The FMLS-based CUSUM statistic for testing the null of smooth time-varying cointegration in the presence of a structural break

In this paper we extend the FMLS-based CUSUM cointegration test (Xiao and Phillips, 2002) for testing the smooth time-varying cointegration null hypothesis. For this purpose we use Chebyshev time polynomials to specify time-varying coefficients under the null. We derive the limiting distribution of the statistic, which is pivotal with the order of the Chebyshev time polynomials, and we provide the critical values to conduct the proposed test.     

The KPSS test with two structural breaks

In this paper, we generalize the KPSS-type test to allow for two structural breaks. Seven models have been defined depending on the way that structural breaks affect the time series behaviour. The paper derives the limit distribution of the test under both the null and the alternative hypotheses and conducts a set of simulation experiments to analyse the performance in finite samples. Finally, we illustrate the application of the statistics through the analysis of real GDP and real per capita GDP for 22 developed countries.      

Assessing economic convergence in the EU: is there a perspective for the ‘cohesion countries’?

This article analyses the stochastic income convergence within the EU-15. The empirical analysis uses per capita GDP, in PPP and in constant prices of 2005 for the period 1950 to 2010. Apart from the traditional DF type tests we also account for possible structural changes. In this direction, we employ the Zivot-Andrews (1992) and the Lee-Strazicich (1999, 2003) testing procedures, for one and two breaks, endogenously determined. Furthermore, we apply the Carlino and Mills (1993) methodology proposed for the detection of β-convergence. The overall evidence supports the existence of two discrete clubs, the first by the ‘cohesion countries’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and the second by the remaining members. In particular, there is a clear evidence of convergence within each club, whereas between clubs there is a luck of catching-up effects. Furthermore, investigation of correlation between relative per capita GDP of each country and several factors that are often identified as growth stimulants, namely Total Factor Productivity, FDI, investment and openness confirm, with the exception of Greece, a strong association between these factors and the convergence process. However, progress in the convergence has not been uniform across countries and over time, reflecting the specific interactions between domestic and international factors and their impact on the convergence process of individual countries.     

Some cautions on the use of nonlinear panel unit root tests: Evidence from a modified series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relevance of applying nonlinear panel unit root test to examine the non-linear mean reversion behaviors of real exchange rates. We find that nonlinear panel unit root test may achieve lower power performance as compared to its alternative of linear panel unit test when the data generating process does not contain significant non-linear components. This finding post cautions to researchers in modeling and testing real exchanges behavior. We also develop a modified series-specific nonlinear panel unit root test and find evidence in favor of purchasing power parity hypothesis for China's four ASEAN trading partners in the period of February 1997 to August 2009.     

Is the consumption-income ratio stationary in African countries? Evidence from new time series tests that allow for structural breaks

This article examines whether the consumption-income ratio is stationary in 50 African countries. We use the residual augmented least squares (RALS-LM) unit root test that allows for structural breaks. The empirical evidence shows that the consumption income ratio is stationary around structural breaks in most (44 out of 50) African countries. This is consistent with the predictions of most economic theories. The general finding of mean reversion implies that (policy) shocks are likely to have only temporary effects on the consumption-income ratio in most African countries .     

Stock exchange mergers and return co-movement: A flexible dynamic component correlations model

The creation of a common cross-border stock trading platform is found, by use of a Flexible Dynamic Component Correlations (FDCC) model, to have increased long-run trends in conditional correlations between foreign and domestic stock market returns.     

Is income converging in China?

This study adopts a flexible Fourier unit‐root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to revisit the tendency towards convergence in real per capita income among provinces after economic reform in China. When a data‐generating process is non‐linear, a Fourier series not only allows for the possibility of an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown forms but also allows for the use of a low‐frequency component to capture multiple changes. Contrary to what the linear statistics suggest, our results from a flexible unit‐root test indicate that China's eastern and western regions are converging to their own specific steady states.     

HYSTERESIS IN UNEMPLOYMENT REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL LM UNIT ROOT TESTS WITH HETEROGENEOUS STRUCTURAL BREAKS

This paper applies the panel LM unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks in level by Im  et al. ( Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 67 (2005), pp. 393–419) to re-examine the validity of hysteresis in the unemployment rates of 19 OECD countries. Our empirical findings are favourable to the stationarity of the unemployment rates, i.e., the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected. Our results suggest that shocks to unemployment rates are temporary and soon converge when we control for breaks. A major policy implication of the study is that a fiscal or monetary stabilization policy would not have permanent effects on the unemployment rates of the 19 OECD countries.     

Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?

The goal of this paper is to examine whether per capita GDP for 15 Asian countries is panel stationary. We apply a panel test for stationarity that allows for multiple structural breaks developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (Econ J 8: 159–179, 2005). Our main findings are: (1) when we apply conventional tests, such as the ADF and KPSS univariate tests without structural breaks, we find little evidence for stationarity; (2) when we apply the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks, we find evidence of stationarity for 10 out of 15 countries; and (3) when we apply the KPSS panel test with multiple structural breaks, we find overwhelming evidence of panel stationarity of per capita real GDP for different panels of Asian countries.      

Panel unit root tests under cross section dependence with recursive mean adjustment

Utilizing recursive mean adjustment (RMA) we provide two unit root tests: the covariate RMA unit root test and the panel feasible generalized RMA unit root test. The proposed panel unit root tests are precise and powerful, especially when T > N.     

BOOTSTRAPPING COVARIATE UNIT ROOT TESTS: AN APPLICATION TO INFLATION RATES

This paper proposes a bootstrap procedure for the covariate point optimal tests (CP_T) of Elliott and Jansson. Although the covariate tests enjoy large power gains over the traditional univariate unit root tests, our simulations show that they still suffer from severe size distortions at finite samples. Through simulations, we demonstrate the superiority of the bootstrap procedure in the sense that it can yield desirable size and power properties for the CP_T tests when the Akaike's information criterion is used. Moreover, we show the empirical relevance of the bootstrap tests by applying them to inflation in the G‐10 countries, and then obtain strong evidence against the unit root hypothesis for most countries at the 5% significance level.