我国转轨经济的基本模式及其研究方法

社会主义国家始于20世纪50年代的变革探索已延续了半个世纪，世界上30多个国家、1／4的人口卷入了这场探索，这些国家可以统称为转轨经济国家。它们的经济运行既不能简单地用发达经济、发展中经济来界定，也不适合用市场经济、计划经济来界定，而是体现出特有的转轨经济共性。转轨经济应该成为一个独特的研究对象，转轨经济的研究不能局限于从传统理论或已有体制的视角出发，而应该立足于转轨经济国家已经走过的实际历程，归纳可以作为规律性的东西，寻求方法论上的创新。     

浅析我国转轨经济的基本模式与研究方法

社会主义国家始于20世纪50年代的变革探索已延续了半个世纪,世界上30多个国家、1／4的人口卷入了这场探索,这些国家可以统称为转轨经济国家。它们的经济运行既不能简单地用发达经济、发展中经济来界定,也不适合用市场经济、计划经济来界定,而是体现出特有的转轨经济共性。转轨经济应该成为一个独特的研究对象,转轨经济的研究不能局限于从传统理论或已有体制的视角出发,而应该立足于转轨经济国家已经走过的实际历程,归纳可以作为规律性的东西,寻求方法论上的创新。     

对我国转轨经济基本模式的研究

社会主义国家始于20世纪50年代的变革探索已延续了半个世纪,世界上30多个国家、1／4的人口卷入了这场探索,这些国家可以统称为转轨经济国家。它们的经济运行既不能简单地用发达经济、发展中经济来界定,也不适合用市场经济、计划经济来界定,而是体现出特有的转轨经济共性。转轨经济应该成为一个独特的研究对象,转轨经济的研究不能局限于从传统理论或已有体制的视角出发,而应该立足于转轨经济国家已经走过的实际历程,归纳可以作为规律性的东西,     

转轨经济中的资本外逃研究

根据格雷戈里关于经济体制的四种属性和刘国光对经济体制的“五分法”，本文研究了转轨经济中普遍发生的资本外逃问题。由于转轨经济的现实同科斯定理所要求的理想状态存在巨大差异，较高的交易成本、市场不完全竞争和产权未被很好的界定，使得经济转轨不可能一帆风顺。作为经济转轨的成本之一，资本外逃抑制了转轨经济的正常增长，丧失了大量的税收，加剧了宏观经济的波动。本文分析了转轨国家资本外逃的现状和规模，揭示了资本外逃对于转轨国家的负面效应，从体制转轨的角度深入探讨了转轨国家出现资本外逃的原因，并就如何防范、减少资本外逃提出了对策建议。     

经济转轨时期需要强热政府

转轨时期，政府经济功能界定是一个重要问题。本文认为，基于中国作为一个转轨型的发展中的人品众多的社会主义国家这一基本国情，我们应着重从国有经济活动、市场完善、社会保障等方面入手，塑造一个适应经济需要的强热政府。     

经济改革和宪政转轨

本研究经济改革和宪政转轨之间的关系，论证国家之间和国家内部不同政治力量间的竞争是宪政转轨的推动力量。通过对俄罗斯和中国的例证，本分析了两种转轨模式下的特征和问题。结论是，在政治垄断下的经济转轨将被国家机会主义所挟持。经济转轨双轨制产生了宪政转轨的非常高的长期代价，大大超过它赎买既得利益平滑转型的短期好处。经济转轨是后社会主义国家的制度与WTO规则下的全球经济趋同的过程，而不是创造一个本质上不同的制度的创新过程。     

转轨国家中的通货膨胀

经济转轨国家发生的通货膨胀，是转轨过程中新旧体制摩擦所引起的经济失衡的集中表现，本文分析了东欧国家经济转轨中的通货膨胀现象及其成因，转轨国家治理通货膨胀的各项政策，最后总结了经济转轨中通货台理的特点。     

转轨进程中国有企业改革与财政约束关系研究——补贴还是课税

财政约束硬化是国有企业转换机制的重要前提条件,但是经济转轨国家的实践表明,财政约束硬化在大部分转轨国家都没有做到。尽管产权学论者和外部环境论者都给出了自己的解释,但都不说明政府为什么对硬化国有企业财政约束“知而不能为之”的原因。文章通过建立了政府、国有企业和民营企业三者间动态博弈模型研究发现,政府对国有企业预算约束是“软”或“硬”不能简单地一概而论,财政对国有企业的预算是“硬”还是“软”内生于经济体制改革的进程和改革的方式选择,以及国有企业本身的竞争能力。因此,转轨国家应该考虑国有企业自身竞争能力情况,在改革不同阶段采取灵活的财政手段,保证转轨过程中全社会福利水平的提高,从而顺利推进国有企业改革的进行。     

资本流动与经济转轨

资本流不仅仅是使得转轨国家产出增长，更重要的是它可以避免转轨国家转轨初期产业结构之存量调整；资本流出不仅仅是使得转轨国家产出减少，更重要的是它会加剧转轨国家转轨初期产业结构之存量调整。外资汉入劳动密集型产业虽然直接地避免了转轨初期的产业结构调整，但这还不是问题的全部，更重要的是，外资流入提高了均衡状态下资本密集型产业的比重，这又起到了避免转轨初期之产业结构调整的作用。对于转轨国家来说，资本流入具有增量调整之功效，有助于克服转轨经济之两难困境。     

财政补贴、竞争能力与国有企业改革

财政约束硬化是国有企业转换机制的重要前提条件,但是经济转轨国家的实践表明,对财政约束硬化在大部分转轨国家都没有做到.尽管产权学论者和外部环境论者都给出了自己的解释,但都不说明政府为什么对硬化国有企业财政约束"知而不能为之"的原因.本文通过建立政府、国有企业和民营企业三者间动态博弈模型研究发现,政府对国有企业预算约束是"软"或"硬"不能简单的一概而论,财政对国有企业的预算是"硬"还是"软"内生于经济体制改革的进程和改革的方式选择,以及国有企业本身的竞争能力.因此,转轨国家应该考虑国有企业自身竞争能力情况,在改革不同阶段采取灵活的财政手段,保证转轨过程中全社会福利水平的提高,从而顺利推进国有企业改革的进行.     

经济改革和宪政转轨

该文研究经济改革和宪政转轨之间的关系,论证国家之间和国家内部不同政治力量间的竞争是宪政转轨的推动力量.通过对俄罗斯和中国的例证,该文分析了两种转轨模式下的特征和问题.结论是,在政治垄断下的经济转轨将被国家机会主义所挟持.经济转轨双轨制产生了宪政转轨的非常高的长期代价,大大超过它赎买既得利益平滑转型的短期好处.经济转轨是后社会主义国家的制度与WTO规则下的全球经济趋同的过程,而不是创造一个本质上不同的制度的创新过程.     

Optimal dynamics of environmental quality in economies in transition1

Environmental pressures in the transition economies of the post‐Soviet era affect not only the quality of life for local populations, but also other key economic issues such as privatization and employment by posing obstacles to their progress. Most studies addressing the environment in transition economies are empirical or analyze the effect of environmental protection on economic variables without first establishing an underlying framework together with the optimal path of environmental quality during the transition. This paper presents such a framework and a policy rule for attainment of the optimal balance between capital and environmental quality in economies in transition. Furthermore, the model shows that pollution taxes or tradable pollution permits are by themselves insufficient to implement the social optimum in a decentralized economy. The results of the model are consistent with depressed economic activity in those economies during an initial phase, and with the diversity of environmental policies in both Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries and the Newly Independent States (NIS). JEL classification: Q20, P20, O13.     

Transition of China��s growth pattern

China has achieved hyper economic growth in the past three decades. The achievement, though spectacular, is nothing incomprehensible to modern economic theories. A number of characteristic factors, short-term or long-term, have been favorable to fast growth. The market-oriented reforms that started thirty years ago have installed the preconditions for the economy to benefit from these factors. As China rises to the rank of middle-income countries, some conditions that used to support fast economic growth are now undergoing profound changes. These changes have important implications on capital formation and productivity growth, the two major drivers of growth. With the era of hyper economic growth coming to its end, the growth pattern of the Chinese economy is in transition. That calls for a transformation of government’s role in the economy to answer the challenges of this transition.     

Population change and economic development in Indonesia

Standard demographic transition theory holds that transition takes place concurrently with socioeconomic development. Oshima has generalized that the pace of demographic transition in Indonesia has been slow and in keeping with standard theory. This article, however, challenges Oshima's contentions and points out that Indonesia has been able to attain a level of demographic transition with a lower level of economic development than that experienced by present-day developed countries during their transitions from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. Sections consider the theory of demographic transition, population and economic change in Indonesia, and the likely impact of demographic changes on the future of Indonesia's economy. The more rapid demographic transition experienced in Indonesia may be used to stimulate even faster economic progress in the country.     

Privatizations around the world: economic or political determinants?

The article examines economic, political, and institutional determinants of privatization using a panel of 50 countries over the period of 1988–2006. Our sample includes developed, developing, and transition economies. Privatization activity is measured by the number of privatization deals as well as the revenue raised and analyzed using the negative binomial regression and Tobit regression respectively. Although more privatization activity is usually taking place in countries displaying satisfactory economic performance in some respect, the role of economic factors turns out to be limited. The results identify a number of political and institutional determinants but some effects are specific to a particular type of economy. For example, in developing countries, right‐wing governments are associated with privatizations while new, not necessarily right‐wing governments, are behind privatization in Eastern Europe. The role of financial development is also varied, with sound financial institutions related to successful privatization in developed and developing countries but not in transition economies.     

The Washington Consensus revisited: a new structural economics perspective

The Washington Consensus reform resulted in economic collapse and stagnation in many transition economies and “lost decades” in other developing countries in 1980s and 1990s. The paper provides a new structural economics perspective of such failures. The Washington Consensus reform failed to recognize that many firms in a transition economy were not viable in an open, competitive market because those industries went against the comparative advantages determined by the economy’s endowment structure. Their survival relied on the government’s protections and subsidies through various interventions and distortions. The Washington Consensus advised the government to focus their reforms on issues related to property rights, corporate governance, government interventions, and other issues that may obstruct a firm’s normal management. Without resolving the firms’ viability problem, such reforms led to the firms’ collapse and an unintended decline and stagnation of the economy in the transition process. This paper suggests that the viability assumption in neoclassical economics be relaxed when analyzing development and transition issues in socialist, transition, and developing economies.     

Turkmenistan: From Communism to Nationalism by Gradual Economic Reform

Turkmenistan's economic performance during the first decade after independence is interesting because it is an extreme case, regularly ranking last among all the former centrally planned economies by transition indicators measuring speed of reform or degree of economic liberalization. This paper analyses the evolution of the economic system and Turkmenistan's economic development since 1991. The country's abundant resource endowment provided favourable initial conditions for pursuing an agenda that gave a low priority to economic reform, while emphasizing the country's neutrality and minimizing internal political change. Nevertheless, in 1997 the unreformed economy suffered a deep decline and, although it has enjoyed some recovery since 1999, the overall performance of GDP since independence is one of the worst among all transition economies. Although the government had achieved its external and internal political goals, the economic strategy appeared to be unsustainable.     

我国产业转移的影响因素、发展趋势及相关政策评析

19世纪后期以来,国际间的产业转移成为世界经济发展中的一个重要现象。我国不仅在改革开放后开始承接国际产业转移,而且由于国内发展差异巨大,在我国还出现了地区间的产业转移。与发达国家之间生产力发展水平上的差距,是决定我国承接国际产业转移的一般因素,而转轨经济的特殊性则使得政府成为影响我国产业转移的一个特殊因素。据此,预计我国产业转移将呈现如下趋势:第三产业将成为我国承接国际产业转移的主要内容;制造业则仍是国内产业转移的主要内容。而东部地区政府阻止纺织服装等劳动密集型产业向中西部转移、中西部地区发展总部经济等相关政策,是难以达到预定目标的。     

中国期货市场的回顾与展望

中国期货市场产生于中国由计划经济向市场经济转轨的过程中，其形成与发达国家期货市场迥然不同。随着中国经济的逐步市场化，中国经济的逐渐国际化，政府扮演的角色的重要程度势必越来越小，期货市场在市场经济中将会充分发挥其功能，成为中国市场经济体系不可或缺的组成部分。     

社会资本在农村集体经济改革中的演变与构建

狭义上的社会资本指网络关系、社会规范以及信任程度,中国农村集体经济在这些方面具有不同于西方国家的特点。论文分析了在中国改革开放这一制度变迁的过程中社会资本发生变化的机理及其对农村集体经济的影响。根据理论研究提出应重构农村集体经济社会资本,这对于建设和谐社会、实现经济转型和提高农民收入等具有重意义。政策含义是：培育农村经济中介和社会中介组织,建立发挥合作经济的作用,明确供销社和信用社合作性质,同时,基层政府和社区的互动应该有边界。