国际收入不平等变化的中国因素分析--基于控制人口因素的方法

中国的贡献是国际收入不平等程度从1978年到2000年呈下降趋势的主要动力,在20世纪80和90年代的部分年份中国因素的贡献率超过100%。通过控制人口因素的方法分析揭示,中国经济增长是中国因素变化的主要原因,人口增长是次要原因,但却是重要原因。20世纪80和90年代人口增长对中国因素变化的贡献率在31.8%和43.5%之间波动,经济增长的贡献率在56.5%和68.2%之间波动。所以,虽然中国因素推动国际收入不平等下降的主要源泉是经济增长,但人口增长的作用也非常重要。     

我国劳动力供给压力正在进入逐步减缓时期

多年来,在研究我国就业问题时,许多人认为21世纪特别是20世纪前20年就业压力仍然较大,未来十几年,中国平均每年净增人口仍在1 000万以上,到21世纪中叶人口总量接近16亿时才能缓慢下降。目前中国已进入由第二个人口增长高峰带来的第三个人口增长高峰期。人口增长意味着后备劳动力增加。当人口增长过快时,劳动力供给就会供大于求,劳动力价格就会随之下降,出现失业加剧等情况。然而,通过对近几年的统计数据和一些现象的分析,我们会发现,虽然我国就业压力仍然存在,但不会出现加大的趋势,而是出现了新的变化,主要反映在劳动力供给压力的减缓上。     

资本形成、工业化与经济增长:中国的转轨特征

把中国的经济转轨、增长与工业化联系起来是本文的一个尝试。作者认为 ,中国的经济增长在近年来越来越表现出静态的特征 ,至今尚不具备持续的动态改进的力量 ,而中国在 2 0世纪 80年代以后的转轨过程则又典型地表现为以新兴工业部门的进入和扩张为特征的持续的工业化过程。本文给出了一个帮助理解转轨后中国经济增长可持续性的概念框架和经验描述。在这个框架里 ,中国的经济增长在过去 1 0年来所表现出的下降趋势可以由过度的工业化进程来解释。     

中国造船业须高度重视汇率风险

进入二十一世纪以来,世界上发展中国家经济发展迅速,特别是中国和印度这两个人口超过10亿的大国,人均GDP以年均10%以上的速度增长(2007年中国经济增长达到11.4%),而亚洲经济、全世界的经济增长也很快。世界经济的高速增长,     

洪亮吉,中国的马尔萨斯

18世纪后半叶到 19世纪初 ,面对西方资本主义虽迅速发展 ,但人们生活状况却在恶化 ,由于大量失业人口导致社会动荡不安的局面 ,英国经济学家马尔萨斯 (Ｔ .Ｒ .Ｍａｌｔｈｕｓ ,176 6—183 4 )认真研究人口增长与经济发展和社会政治的关系 ,力图以人口理论来消弥欧洲社会改革要求。在 180 3年正式出版的《人口理论》这部著作中 ,他从“两个规律” ,即“食物是人类生存所必须”和“两性间的情欲是必然”的观点出发 ,提出由于人口增长呈几何增长 (即 1,2 ,4,8,16 ,3 2 ,6 4 ,12 8……式增长方式 ) ,而经济增长是算术增长 (即 1,2 ,3 ,4,5 ,6 ,…     

1996年-2010年世界经济发展趋势

1996年至2010年是跨世纪的重要时期。在这一重要时期,世界经济发展将出现一些新的特点和趋势。能否把握住这些特点和趋势,将决定一个国家或地区在下一个世纪的地位和命运。我们应未雨绸缪,早做准备,沉着应付,争取美好的前景。 一、世界经济进入新增长阶段,“可持续发展”成为众多国家追求的发展模式 进入90年代后,世界经济呈缓慢增长趋势。1991年比上年增长0.8％,1992年增长1.4％,1993     

中国的发展面临4大困境

<正> 中国科学院最近发表的一份国情分析报告认为,有4大困境摆在当代中国人及子孙后代的面前。第一困境:人口继续膨胀与迅速变化,就业负担沉重。中国自本世纪50年代开始工业化以后,同时进入有史以来基数最大、幅度最高、增长最快的人口倍增的特大台阶,突出表现在下世纪20年代到40年代相继进入人口三大高峰——其劳动年龄人口在2020年达到10亿,总人口在20至2030年至少达到15亿,老年人口在2040年也将达到3     

泰国国家食品营养规划及其对我国的启示

泰国历史上是一个农业国家,盛产香米,是全球粮食主要出口国家之一,鱼类资源也非常丰富,是鱼米之乡。20世纪初泰国只有800多万人口,第二次世界大战后,泰国人口迅速增长,目前接近4000万人;20世纪60年代泰国经济进入高速成长阶段,进入90年代泰国成功地由低收入国家进入到中等收入国家行列。从1961年开始配合泰国的经济成长和大量基础设施建设,泰     

保罗·罗默对新增长理论的贡献

20世纪50年代中期至60年代末期是经济增长理论的黄金时期,出现了以索洛(Solow)等人为代表的一批新古典经济增长理论的经济学家。但是,或许是由于新古典增长理论难以摆脱经济均衡增长的条件是被外生的人口自然增长率所决定的这个令人“不愉快的结果”,70年代初期以来,有关增长理论的文章突然从西方各主要学术期刊上基本消失了。直到80年代中期,在罗默(1986)和卢卡斯(1988)等人的论文发表以后,情况才有所改观。随后,经济增长理论研究进入一个新的发展阶段。     

英国:经济亮点明显 隐忧犹存

在全球经济出现下滑,欧元区经济难见持续复苏的背景下,英国经济一枝独秀,呈现出持续向好的趋势。高增长、低通胀、低失业率、财政状况改善成为2014年英国经济的四大亮点。2014英国经济的四大亮点经济增长强劲。2014年,英国经济复苏势头进一步得到巩固。英国国家统计局最新公布的数据显示,2014年第三季度英国国内生产总值(GDP)环比增长0.7%,实现连续7个季度正增长,且经济总量超过金融危机前水平。在12月初发布的英     

CAPITAL‐ AND LABOR‐SAVING TECHNICAL CHANGE IN AN AGING ECONOMY

Does population aging and the associated increase in the old‐age dependency ratio affect economic growth? The answer is given in a novel analytical framework that allows for population aging to affect endogenous capital‐ and labor‐saving technical change. In a steady state capital‐saving technical progress vanishes, and the economy's growth rate of per‐capita variables reflects only labor‐saving technical change. The mere possibility of capital‐saving technical change is shown to imply that the economy's steady‐state growth rate becomes independent of its age structure: Neither a higher life expectancy nor a decline in fertility affects economic growth in the long run.     

Endogenous Growth and Intellectual Property Rights: A North–South Modelling Proposal with Population Ageing

This paper studies the effect of intellectual property rights (IPR) on economic growth, in the light of population ageing, i.e., in a more realistic context. The analysis is motivated by the implications of population ageing on economic growth. Moreover, this study analyses this relationship in a north–south framework where there is a healthcare sector. We conclude that population ageing has no impact on the sign of the IPR effect on economic growth. However, it positively affects the steady‐state growth rate. Finally, under some conditions, the presence of the healthcare sector also increases the steady‐state growth rate.     

Human appropriation of net primary production in the United Kingdom, 1800-2000 : Changes in society's impact on ecological energy flows during the agrarian-industrial transition

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the United Kingdom's society's long-term intervention into the energy flows of domestic terrestrial ecosystems through the human appropriation of aboveground net primary production (aHANPP) covering the period 1800-2000. The depicted aHANPP trajectory and the historical development of its components are discussed in view of a continuously increasing population and the transition process from an agrarian to an industrial socioecological regime. During the 19th century, aHANPP shows a steady decline from its level of 71% in 1800. While even higher levels were reached during the mid 20th century, the trend during the last forty years of the period under investigation again shows a reduction of aHANPP, which lies at 68% in the year 2000. The high values of aHANPP in the United Kingdom are primarily attributable to the limited amount of forest in comparison to large agricultural areas. At the beginning of the studied period, the relative stabilisation or even decrease in aHANPP in comparison to population development was made possible through the area expansion of and productivity increases on cropland and permanent pastures. Later this was made possible through the outsourcing of biomass harvest, by satisfying local nutritional demands by means of overseas imports, and as from the mid 20th century through huge amounts of fossil fuel based inputs into agriculture (e.g. increased amounts of fertilizers and motorized traction) which allowed increases in biomass harvest to be decoupled from HANPP.     

IS HISPANIC POPULATION DISPERSION INTO RURAL COUNTIES CONTRIBUTING TO LOCAL ECONOMIC GROWTH?

In the 1990s, rural counties in the United States, which had been losing population, became the destinations for an increasing number of Hispanics, slowing and in some cases reversing population declines. In this paper, we examine whether faster growth in the Hispanic population is linked to faster growth in income per capita in rural counties. Our results indicate strong support for the hypothesis that population growth caused by the increase in Hispanics, whether from international immigrants, migrants from within the United States, or from natural growth in families, has fueled increased economic growth in those small, rural communities whose populations had been in decline during the 1970s or the 1980s. (JEL J15, J61, R11)     

HIV infection and economic growth

This paper presents an endogenous growth model based on a simplified ‘learning by doing’ model. In this model, a negative shock, namely HIV infection, leads to a stationary active population. We show it is possible to neutralize the effects of the HIV shock while at the same time insuring steady economic growth. However, this result vanishes in the absence of a policy to fight against the HIV shock. Further, an increase of the HIV infection rate negatively affects the growth rate of the economy. This last finding implies that a high and sustainable economic growth rate is incompatible with a high incidence of HIV infection of the active population.     

FOREIGN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper examines the economic implications of institutional arrangements by which foreign investors are required to reinvest a certain percentage of their capital within the host country. Our analysis shows that foreign capital inflow can produce long-lasting economic benefits to the host country only when the foreign capital reinvestment rate is sufficiently greater than the host country's saving rate. In this case, the economy evolves into a unique steady state equilibrium, which is also asymptotically stable. The paper also presents several comparative static results regarding the responses of steady state capital-labour ratio and the proportion of foreign capital in total capital to changes in the population growth rate, the rate of capital depreciation, the host country's saving rate and the foreign capital reinvestment rate.     

It's a Sin—Contraceptive Use,Religious Beliefs,and Long‐run Economic Development

This study presents a novel theory on the interaction of social norms, fertility, education, and their joint impact on long‐run economic development. The theory takes into account that sexual intercourse is utility enhancing and that the use of modern contraceptives potentially conflicts with prevailing social norms (religious beliefs). The theory motivates the existence of two steady states. At the traditional steady state, the economy stagnates, fertility is high, education is minimal, and the population sustains a norm according to which modern contraceptives are not used. At the modern steady state, the population has abandoned traditional beliefs, modern contraceptives are used, fertility is low and education and economic growth are high. Social dynamics explain why both equilibria are separated by a saddlepoint‐equilibrium (a separatrix), i.e. why it is so hard to transit from the traditional regime to the modern regime.     

Income inequality and economic growth

Despite the extensive existing literature on income inequality and economic growth, there remains considerable disagreement on the effect of inequality on economic growth. Existing literatures find either a positive or a negative relationship. In this paper, we attempt to theoretically examine that relationship with a stochastic optimal growth model. We make the disagreement clear within a single model. We conclude (i) that both are possible – that is, higher inequality can retard growth in the early stage of economic development, and can encourage growth in a near steady state, (ii) that income redistribution by high income tax does not always reduce income inequality. Income inequality can be reduced by higher income tax in a near steady state, but it cannot be reduced in the early stage of economic development, and (iii) that two government polices – rapid economic growth and low income inequality – can be achieved by low income tax in the early stage of economic development, but both cannot be achieved simultaneously in a near steady state.     

Measures for knowledge-based economic development: Introducing data mining techniques to economic developers in the state of Georgia and the US South

The contribution of knowledge to economic growth and competitiveness has attracted increased attention. Publications with a topical focus on areas related to innovation have risen dramatically from 1963 to 2005, but more slowly in local and regional development journals. In contrast to the wide use of aggregate measures of innovation, this paper presents four cases presenting disaggregated knowledge-based approaches into the policy- and decision-making processes of economic developers in the state of Georgia and the US South. The first case uses information obtained from patents and publications to inform traditional out-of-area economic development recruitment strategies in a more knowledge-oriented direction. The second case exemplifies the use of data mining to identify top researchers as part of a strategic state economic development effort. The third case illustrates how local knowledge-based capabilities can be identified in cities not traditionally viewed as innovative. Nanotechnology-related knowledge assets in the southern United States are mapped and assessed in the fourth case. Disaggregated methods used in traditional strategies were most intuitively understood and used, but new knowledge measures were found to encourage local and state economic developers to begin to embrace new paradigms.     

Economic Growth with Foreign Capital

In growth theory, foreign investment places a small open economy in the international steady state. In applied growth theory, foreign investment is assumed to shift technology. The present growth model separates foreign from domestic capital and develops the steady state where both capital/labor ratios are stationary. A capital scarce country would attract foreign investment and may arrive at a steady state with perpetual foreign investment. Such a steady state foreign investment host is characterized by low saving and high labor growth rates, and source countries the opposite. Incomplete convergence characterizes economic growth with foreign capital.