Towards an integrated model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers, pressures and impacts. A feasibility study based on three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms

Effective policies to slow the rate of anthropogenic biodiversity loss should reduce socioeconomic pressures on biodiversity, either directly or by modifying their underlying socioeconomic driving forces. The design of such policies is currently hampered by the limited understanding of socioeconomic drivers of and pressures on biodiversity as well as by lacking data, indicators and models. In order to improve understanding of these issues we here propose a conceptual model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. The model is based on the drivers-pressures-impacts-states-responses (DPSIR) scheme and on the socioeconomic metabolism approach. The aim of the model is to guide research aimed at improving our understanding of socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers and to serve as a basis for the development of formal, quantitative models in that field. Based on three European long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) platforms, we analyze the model's applicability and suitability as well as data availability and research needs. These platforms are the Danube Delta Wetland System in Romania, the Doñana in Spain and the Eisenwurzen in Austria. An empirical analysis of the relationship between the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and breeding bird richness in the Eisenwurzen demonstrates the ability of HANPP to provide a link between socioeconomic pressures/drivers and biodiversity. The analysis of the case studies underlines the potential utility of the conceptual model to guide future research into socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. However, considerable investments in monitoring and reconstruction of past trajectories as well as in model development will be required before mathematical (computer) models of the interrelation processes between society and ecosystems can be successfully deployed.     

Driving forces of chemical risks for the European biodiversity

In the framework of the EU-funded research project ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks with tested Methods), an original method combining the DPSIR (driving forces–pressures–state–impacts–responses) framework and an analysis based on the distinction between the four spheres of sustainability (environmental, economic, social and political) has been developed. This paper presents the application of this method, called “the tetrahedral DPSIR” for the identification and analysis of driving forces of environmental chemicals risks for biodiversity, in Europe. The purpose of this methodology is to help reduce the pressures on biodiversity through modifying the driving forces behind them by offering scientific advice to policy makers. We frame our analysis in the context of the current policy, namely the implementation of REACH (Regulation on the Registration, Evaluation, and Authorization of CHemicals).     

Multi-level driving forces of biological invasions

Biological invasions are human-induced processes affecting biodiversity. Information on biological invasions can be organized following the categories of the DPSIR model. This paper examines the state of the art in the application of this model to the study and management of biological invasions.The paper focuses on driving forces and pressures, clarifying the different levels at which drivers operate and promote invasion processes. Identifying driving forces is necessary not only to understand the processes behind biological invasions but also to generate policy initiatives that address threats to biodiversity at different levels of governance. Thus driving forces and pressures on biological invasions are identified taking into account the multi-level character of such processes. The final section reviews the role that different stakeholders play in biological invasion management and finally elaborates a list of indicators derived from the analysis that can be used in decision making concerning invasion processes.     

基于能值分析的土地可持续利用态势研究

本文应用能值分析的理论和方法，构建了基于能值的标定土地可持续利用态势的若干指数，如土地利用总能值投入产出比，土地利用工业能能值投入产出比，土地利用环境负载指数以及土地可持续利用指数。作为案例研究，作者利用上述指数对1978－1999年中车农业土地的可持续性进行判定。结果表明，尽管粮食产量或农业产值等经济指标为土地利用总能值投入产出比和工业能能值投入产出指数前期剧烈下降，后期趋于平缓；土地利用环境负载指数持续上升的态势说明，中国农用土地的环境压力逐渐增大，土地可持续利用指数在前期呈现上升趋势，至1985的达到最高，此后呈持续下降态势，近年趋于稳定。这表明，由过度使用化石能量引起的环境负面效应对农用土地生态系统的压力不断增大，若不遏制这种发展势头，中国农用土地生态系统的可持续性将得不到延存。     

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach

Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to biodiversity and the functions of ecosystems. The stress on biodiversity is far beyond the levels imposed by the natural global climatic changes occurring in the recent evolutionary past. It includes temperature increases, shifts of climate zones, melting of snow and ice, sea level rise, droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. Natural systems are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socio-economic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyses observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses. The latter can be divided into mitigation and adaptation measures. Both strategies are needed, mitigation in order to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and adaptation in order to adjust to changes that have already occurred or cannot be avoided. One mitigation option, increased biofuel production, which is also a response to oil depletion, would change land use patterns and increase human appropriation of net primary production of biomass, thereby threatening biodiversity. By considering the first order and second order impacts of climate change on biodiversity when developing policy measures, it will be possible to integrate ecosystem and biodiversity protection into decision-making processes.     

城市建成环境对鸟类多样性的影响 机制研究评述及展望

城市化带来的环境变化是生物多样性的主要威胁， 但城市同样也是生物多样性保护的热点地区。因此，分析和预 测城市环境变化对生物多样性的影响对于维护城市生态系统服 务，提升人类福祉至关重要。目前，越来越多的研究对城市建 成环境进行了详细的分类，分别量化了各个城市特征对生物多 样性水平的影响。然而，对影响城市内生物多样性水平的因 素仍缺乏多尺度、全球性的分析。借助Web of Science和 CNKI，对来自全球37个城市的111篇文献进行了建成环境下 鸟类多样性研究方法和结果的系统性分析，并在归纳关键性城 市建成环境要素的基础上，提出了以生物多样性为导向的建成 环境优化策略，指出了鸟类多样性保护和城市可持续发展的未 来方向。     

Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO₂ emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.     

Analysing the evolution of industrial ecosystems: concepts and application

Industrial ecology and the industrial ecosystem approach (IE) are emerging concepts in ecological economics, environmental policy and corporate environmental management. The natural ecosystem model of diverse recycling and cascading material and energy flow systems has been used in industrial systems that are contrasting to this, operating with linear flows and unsustainable. Understanding the evolution of industrial systems over time toward sustainable or unsustainable ways of operating is important for learning about environmental performance analyses as well as for future planning of policy and management. The evolution over time of the Uimaharju forest industry park in Eastern Finland is studied. First, the system development is described by identifying the number of IE-type ‘roundput’ material and energy flows denoting waste utilisation and sustainable use of renewables. Second, development of the system over time is shown in terms of the number of the actors involved. This structural characteristic is termed system ‘diversity’. Third, the relation of the two is considered. Fourth, the drivers of the case system development are discussed. Fifth, an initial effort is made to calculate some of the environmental effects of the system during its development. An increase in roundput and diversity over time is observed. Diversity is affecting roundput. The park tends to enlarge its activities outside the industrial park boundary over time. While the system illustrates high roundput and high diversity, we can only speculate if these characteristics contribute to sustainability, because of difficulties in system boundary definition.