Liquidity constraint,uncertainty and household consumption in China

This paper investigates the changing roles played by liquidity constraint and uncertainty in accounting for the dynamism of Chinese household consumption behaviour. Starting from the Euler equation-based model of Robert Hall, a framework encompassing an array of consumption models is developed and applied to Chinese data over the period 1961?1998. Empirical results reveal a regime shift in the early 1980s and imply that increases in the proportion of liquidity constrained consumers and increased uncertainty in the post-reform period are responsible for the extremely low consumption or high savings in China. Moreover, it is found that interactions between liquidity constraint and uncertainty reinforce each other's effects and lead to declines in both the level and growth of consumption.     

Reference Dependence Effects on WTA and WTP Value Functions and Their Disparity

In this study we investigate two reference dependence effects in a choice experiment. The first is the effect of the well-known distinction between gains and losses, the second is the effect of changing the reference value on willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept (WTA). The latter has to our knowledge not been studied before. We hypothesize that there are differences between WTA and WTP, and that both value functions and their disparity are affected by the absolute value of the reference point. We test our hypotheses using a choice experiment with trade-offs between changes in flood probabilities and costs. The choice experiments elicit WTP and WTA, using two flood probability reference values, yielding four separate value functions. Our findings show that a substantial WTA–WTP disparity exists, and that this disparity increases when moving away from the reference point. Also, both WTA and WTP value functions are affected by the flood probability reference value, and the WTA–WTP disparity increases when the flood probability reference point increases. Both findings suggest that welfare effects caused by changes in public good provision depend not only on the direction of change (loss aversion), but also the reference value. Moreover, our results show that the latter effect is larger for losses than for gains. We introduce the concept of reference point updating as a possible explanation for these findings.     

流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费

本文运用中国 1 96 1— 1 998年间数据 ,通过测试罗伯特·霍尔 (RobertHall)的消费函数及其扩展模型 ,分析了流动性约束与不确定性在中国居民消费行为演变中所起的作用。实证研究表明 ,随着中国经济改革的不断深入 ,中国居民消费行为在 2 0世纪80年代早期发生了结构性转变。流动性约束型消费者所占比重的上升以及不确定性的增大 ,造成了中国目前的低消费增长和内需不足。此外 ,我们还发现 ,流动性约束和不确定性之间的相互作用进一步强化了两者对居民消费的影响 ,导致了居民消费水平和消费增长率的同时下降。     

Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: evidence from Italy

I empirically investigate precautionary savings under liquidity constraints in Italy using a unique indicator of subjective variance of income growth to measure the strength of the precautionary motive for saving, and a variety of survey-based indicators of liquidity constraints. The main contribution of the paper is twofold. First of all, I attempt to differentiate between the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from the one due to liquidity constraints using an endogenous switching regression approach, which allows me to cope with endogeneity issues associated with sample splitting techniques. Second, I move one step further with respect to previous studies on consumption behaviour by taking explicitly expected liquidity constraints into account. I eventually found the precautionary motive for savings to be stronger for those households who face binding constraints, or expect constraints to be binding in the future. Indeed, a complementarity relation exists between precautionary savings and liquidity constraints.     

Over-savings and hyperbolic discounting

Hyperbolic discounting models are widely seen as implying that consumers do not save enough, in accordance with the observed low rates of savings of some households. This paper qualifies this view by showing that hyperbolic consumers may ‘oversave’ in the short run. The result extends to uncertainty on future income and does not depend on whether preferences are present-biased or future-biased. A generalized comparative statics analysis of self-control is introduced, and its relationship to the analysis of uncertainty on discount factors is emphasized.     

Liquidity shocks and equilibrium liquidity premia

We study an equilibrium in which agents face surprise liquidity shocks and invest in liquid and illiquid riskless assets. The random holding horizon from liquidity shocks makes the return of the illiquid security risky. The equilibrium premium for such risk depends on the constraint that agents face when borrowing against future income; it is insignificant without borrowing constraint, but can be very high with borrowing constraint. Illiquidity, therefore, can have large effects on asset returns when agents face liquidity shocks and borrowing constraints. This result can help us understand why some securities have high liquidity premia, despite low turnover frequency.     

Passive learning: a critique by example

In models of learning by experimentation that exhibit signal dependence, a benchmark using a passive learner has been proposed. The use of this benchmark is flawed – first, passive learning does not disentangle the effects of knowing that beliefs, as well as other state variables, might change, and we address this issue directly by introducing a naïve learner. Secondly, and more tellingly, passive learning does not do what it is supposed to do, namely help measure the gains from active experimentation; the naïve learner enables us to illustrate this point in the context of a particular example.     

Financial Constraints and Investment Decisions

In what follows we show that liquidity constraints can affect a firm's investment even when the constraints are not currently effective. This happens when, at any given time, the firm believes that internal finance is likely to become a constraint in the future. In these circumstances, the value of the firm becomes a non‐monotonic functional form of the fundamental. Thus, in a dynamic setting, the potential barrier to internal liquidity expansion exerts a global effect on the firm's investment policy, lowering its desired investment profile (Classification JEL: E22, E51 ).     

Mechanism design with a liquidity constrained buyer: The 2×2 case

This paper studies the implications of buyers' liquidity constraints for the optimal selling strategy. The possibility that a buyer faces a binding liquidity constraint affects the seller's strategy in a nontrivial way. Specifically, when a seller has one unit of a good to sell to a buyer with a quasilinear utility function, the `no-haggling' result indicates that textbook monopoly pricing is optimal, absent liquidity constraints. Introducing a potentially binding liquidity constraint vitiates the no-haggling result, and can make it strictly beneficial for the seller to use nonlinear pricing, to commit to a declining price sequence, or to require the buyer to post a cash bond.     

Mixture periodic GARCH models: theory and applications

This paper discusses mixture periodic GARCH (M-PGARCH) models that constitute very flexible class of nonlinear time series models of the conditional variance. It turns out that they are more parsimonious comparatively to MPARCH models. We first provide some probabilistic properties of this class of models. We thus propose an estimation method based on the expectation-maximization algorithm. Finally, we apply this methodology to model the spot rates of the Algerian dinar against euro and US dollar. This empirical analysis shows that M-PGARCH models yield the best performance among the competing models.     

Liquidity Constraints and Business Cycles in Developing Economies

Open economy extensions of real business cycle models, even if generally successful, have met some difficulties replicating a few important stylized facts. In particular, these models tend to predict excessive consumption smoothing and consumption correlations across countries. The observed negative correlation between the trade balance and output in developing countries, the variability of the trade balance and its correlation with the terms of trade have also proven difficult to reproduce. This paper considers how introduction of incomplete markets in the form of liquidity constraints can alleviate these problems. This analysis suggests that adding liquidity constraints helps predict the variability of consumption relative to output. It also improves our estimate of the correlation between the trade balance and output. The model correctly replicates the small positive correlation between the terms of trade and the trade balance. However, it slightly underpredicts the variability of the trade balance when 50% of the consumers are assumed to be liquidity constrained.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E13, E32, E44.     

Quasi-hyperbolic discounting and retirement

Some people have self-control problems regularly. This paper adds endogenous retirement to Laibson’s quasi-hyperbolic discounting savings model [Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 (1997) 443–477]. Earlier selves think that the deciding self tends to retire too early and may save less to induce later retirement. Still earlier selves may think the pre-retirement self does this too much, saving more to induce early retirement. The consumption pattern may be different from that with exponential discounting. Other observational non-equivalence includes the impact of changing mandatory retirement rules or work incentives on savings and a possibly negative marginal propensity to consume out of increased future earnings. Naive agents are briefly considered.     

Do liquidity constraints generate excess sensitivity in consumption? New evidence from a sample of post-bankruptcy households

Previous work linking liquidity constraints to excessive consumption sensitivity have used household level information on wealth and assets to split the sample into households that are likely to be constrained from those with access to credit and liquidity. In this paper, we use the sample splitting methods of previous authors but refine the criteria by using direct information on whether the household filed for bankruptcy in the last 10 years. Legally, a flag can appear on a bankruptcy filer’s credit report for up to 10 years after bankruptcy. This bankruptcy flag affects an individual’s credit score, and therefore the individual’s access to credit, which may make post-bankruptcy consumers liquidity constrained. Our results indicate that post-bankruptcy consumers exhibit excess sensitivity likely due to the bankruptcy flag. Consistency checks confirm that the source of sensitivity is due to liquidity constraints and not other observationally equivalent behavior.     

Has Financial Deregulation Revived the Permanent Income/Life Cycle Hypothesis?

The permanent income/life cycle hypothesis is tested using Australian data for periods covering the regulated and deregulated financial systems. The hypothesis is rejected for the entire sample period. Further investigation reveals that the rejection is confined to the period in which the financial system was regulated. The evidence points to liquidity constraints as being the cause of this rejection although the existence of myopic consumers may also be a possibility.     

Optimal savings with taxable and tax-deferred accounts

We solve and estimate a life-cycle model with earnings risk and liquidity constraints in the presence of tax-deferred retirement accounts (TDAs). We explicitly consider two very different types of households (with TDAs): direct and indirect stockholders. The latter hold stocks only through TDAs and, consistent with the data, save considerably less than the former, who hold stocks both inside and outside these accounts. We find that TDAs promote higher wealth accumulation but only marginally higher net savings. Consumption increases mostly during retirement, as desired, but the effect is largest for those households with higher savings rates already.     

On Intertemporal Subsidy-Free Prices and Economic Depreciation: Constrained Market Pricing Revisited

The constrained market pricing approach to regulating monopolies maintains that prices should be subsidy-free, lying between the often expansive bounds of stand alone and incremental costs. For a simple two-good/two-period model of a monopolist subject to a zero profit constraint, it is shown that subsidy-free prices are those which rise to the amortized opportunity cost of the currently optimal asset configuration required to meet both current and future demand, providing—in some circumstances—justification for accelerated depreciation. Such intertemporal subsidy-free prices recognize that the stand alone cost of existing assets to current consumers depends on the value of those assets to future consumers. Hence, if a feasible resale price for the fixed costs of capacity exists within or between periods, then intertemporal stand alone costs and intertemporal incremental costs are driven to equality.     

LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS,HOUSEHOLD WEALTH,AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP REVISITED

The existence of liquidity constraints for entrepreneurs has been challenged by the finding that business entry rates are invariant throughout most of the asset distribution and increase dramatically only at the top of this distribution. We reexamine the liquidity constraint hypothesis in three ways. First, we separately examine those who do and those who do not experience a job loss to reveal generally increasing entry rates through the wealth distribution for both groups, and show why these groups should be separately analyzed. Second, we use a two‐period simulation of the Evans and Jovanovic model to shows how exogenous wealth shocks can accurately identify the presence of liquidity constraints. Third, we provide new evidence from matched Current Population Survey data to show that housing appreciation measured at the MSA‐level is a significantly positive determinant of entry into self‐employment, after controlling for changes in local economic conditions.     

Schumpeter’s Split Between “Pure” Economics and Institutional Economics: Why Methodological Individualism Was Not Fully Considered

While Joseph A. Schumpeter is classified as a pioneer of evolutionary economics in a wide sense and of entrepreneurship and innovation management in a narrower sense, Schumpeter is less known for his contributions in the area of scientific methodology and history of science. The paper deals with methodological premises in Schumpeter’s scientific positioning. In 1908, in his Das Wesen und der Hauptinhalt der theoretischen Nationalökonomie, Schumpeter developed and pioneered his methodological individualism which is very much acknowledged. However, comparing these early positions with methodological writings in his History of Economic Analysis (1954) shows that he has not really shifted from methodological individualism to an institutional perspective that addresses the academic interplay and sees economic action rooted in historical predispositions, paths and social constraints.     

Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: Evidence from rural Pakistan

This paper investigates precautionary saving under liquidity constraints in Pakistan using household panel data. In particular, while it estimates Kimball's [Kimball, M.S. Precautionary saving in the small and in the large. Econometrica 1990; 58; 53–73.] prudence parameter based on a framework that is similar to Dynan [Dynan, K.E. How prudent are consumers? Journal of Political Economy 1993; 101; 1104–1113.], this study deviates from the framework by explicitly considering liquidity constraints, as in Zeldes [Zeldes, S.P. Consumption and liquidity constraints: an empirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy 1989; 97; 305–346.]. By doing so, this paper attempts to differentiate the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from that caused by liquidity constraints. Furthermore, endogenous liquidity constraints are used in order to resolve issues of selection biases. We find substantial evidence of the presence of precautionary saving in Pakistan. More specifically, the estimated prudence is significantly higher for liquidity-constrained households as compared with unconstrained ones. The finding suggests that the precautionary saving motives appear stronger when households see that their access to credit markets is limited.     

Collateral restrictions and liquidity under-supply: a simple model

We show that very little is needed to create liquidity under-supply in equilibrium. Credit constraints on demand by themselves can cause an under-supply of liquidity, without the uncertainty, intermediation, asymmetric information or complicated international financial framework used in other models in the literature. We show that the under-supply is a non-monotone function of the demand distortion that causes it, a result that may have interesting implications for emerging markets economies. Finally, when we make the credit constraint endogenous, the inefficiency can be large due to the presence of a multiplier. The authors thank the very helpful comments of Andres Velasco, Herbert Scarf and all the participants of the Mathematical Economics Seminar at Yale.