低碳经济“脱钩”量化分解模型研究——基于IPAT方程的分析

在IPAT方程基础上运用LMDI分解法构建了低碳经济"脱钩"量化分解模型,并以山西为例进行分析。结果表明,1999～2009年间山西低碳经济已从"扩张负脱钩"和"无脱钩努力"阶段逐步改善为"弱脱钩"发展阶段;能源强度降低对低碳经济发展起到了关键性作用,产业结构和能源结构调整等其他措施效果并不明显。该模型的建立对科学评价减排措施和低碳经济发展具有重要的方法论意义。     

Global warming and economic externalities

Despite worldwide policy efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol, the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) remains a negative externality. Economic equilibrium paths in the presence of such an uncorrected externality are inefficient; as a consequence, there is no real economic opportunity cost to correcting this externality by mitigating global warming. Mitigation investment using resources diverted from conventional investments can raise the economic well-being of both current and future generations. The economic literature on GHG emissions misleadingly focuses attention on the intergenerational equity aspects of mitigation by using a hybrid constrained optimal path as the “business-as-usual” benchmark. We calibrate a simple Keynes-Ramsey growth model to illustrate the significant potential Pareto improvement from mitigation investment and to explain the equilibrium concept appropriate to modeling an uncorrected negative externality.     

三峡库区发展低碳经济的思路与对策

从资源环境的角度分析了三峡库区发展低碳经济的紧迫性以及低碳经济之路面临的诸多压力与挑战。提出了三峡库区助推森林重庆、促进低碳经济发展、构建生态文明社会的政策建议。     

Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they don't, mostly — they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them.Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth.The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low in a growing economy.     

Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution: A case study of the Netherlands

Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on CO₂ emissions only, but the Kyoto Protocol refers to other greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as CO₂. These are CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆. Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation. It is not yet clear, however, what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups. This paper examines and compares distributional effects of a CO₂ tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six GHG of the Kyoto Protocol. The study concentrates on the Netherlands in the year 2000. We established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the Dutch policy target. The distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input−output analysis and data on consumer expenditures. Our results show that taxation of multiple GHG improves not only the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a CO₂ tax. These findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non-CO₂ GHG in climate change mitigation.     

Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution: A case study of the Netherlands

Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on CO₂ emissions only, but the Kyoto Protocol refers to other greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as CO₂. These are CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆. Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation. It is not yet clear, however, what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups. This paper examines and compares distributional effects of a CO₂ tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six GHG of the Kyoto Protocol. The study concentrates on the Netherlands in the year 2000. We established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the Dutch policy target. The distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input−output analysis and data on consumer expenditures. Our results show that taxation of multiple GHG improves not only the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a CO₂ tax. These findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non-CO₂ GHG in climate change mitigation.     

Comparative assessment and essential analysis on new international GHG emission reduction proposals

Since Kyoto Protocol came into force on February 16, 2005, the endeavor by international society to combat the climate change has stepped into a new milestone. The greenhouse gas （GHG） abatement mechanisms in Kyoto Protocol have served a remarkable function but also been questioned during the practices of past three years about its environmental effectiveness. A lot of new international GHG emission reduction proposals are proposed from many new a.spects, some of which especially impose pressure on developing countries. So it is of great importance to research on these new proposals in time for negotiation beyond Kyoto and institution of Chinese relevant climate policies. As this paper focutses on the way of commitment distribution of mechanisms, the mechanisms here are categorized in one of two types： those distribute commitment based on countries and those based on sectors. Some of the typical mechanisms are selected to be analyzed comparatively, especially about their influence on developing countries,E-mail address： jiangdongmei@tsinghua.edu.cn     

对新疆发展低碳经济的思考

以低能耗、低污染、低排放为基础的低碳经济是人类社会的一大进步,国外已采取多种措施发展低碳经济,而环境恶化和能源短缺将是今后中国发展过程中最大的瓶颈。通过对新疆地区低碳经济发展的现状以及发展过程中的制约因素进行分析,提出了新疆地区加快发展循环经济的对策和建议,希望能对新疆低碳经济的发展提供一些参考意见。     

比利时行业减排目标与措施（2008-2012年）

为履行《京都议定书》和《欧盟责任分担协议》,比利时必须在2008—2012年完成与1990年相比减排7．5％的目标。2006年9月比利时政府向欧委会递交了《比利时2008—2012年二氧化碳（CO2）排放限额分配国家计划草案》;2008年2月向欧委会递交了《比利时2008—2012年温室气体排放（GHG）限额分配国家额度计划》。本文介绍了该计划的主要内容,其中包括比利时联邦和各大区政府所采取的政策,特别是行业减排的目标和措施,如：能源生产、能耗、建筑、交通、工业、农业、林业及垃圾等。     

Decreasing energy use in buildings by 50% by 2050 — A backcasting study using stakeholder groups

This paper describes a backcasting study focusing on fulfilment of a national target to decrease energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings by 50% by 2050 compared with the consumption in 1995, and identifying possible measures for achieving it. A method based on a combination of backcasting methodology and focus group methodology was used. Two different scenarios were developed. They were used in discussions with stakeholders in the building sector, to explore and identify measures and actors important for target fulfillment. The main outcomes were ideas for strategies and measures needed to achieve the target. The current potential for target fulfilment was also analysed and discussed. The discussions in the different stakeholder groups were mainly concerned with changes in attitude and behaviour and the need for radical changes in social structures. For example, enhanced communication between actors in the building chain, and the need for relevant feedback in order to illustrate the link between the effort in decreasing energy use and actual outcome. The findings suggest that there is sufficient technical potential to achieve the target by 2050 but that this potential will not be realised to a sufficient extent. Achieving the target would be facilitated by policy that is oriented more towards identifying actors with direct influence to promote change. An analysis of incentives for these actors to act, and how different actors can cooperate for energy-efficient solutions should be integrated into the process of suggesting and implementing policy measures.     

Transition of the Chinese Economy in the Face of Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts in the Future

China joined the Paris Agreement, and the global 2°C and 1.5°C warming targets will be supported by China. In order to achieve these targets, China's CO₂ emissions need to be cut deeply by 2050. The present paper presents studies from the integrated policy assessment model for China (IPAC) team about the impact on China's economic development of deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in order to realize the Paris climate change targets. With the requirement of deep cuts in GHG emissions in China, China's economic development will also be impacted in moving toward a low‐carbon or zero‐carbon emission‐based economy by 2050. This means the Chinese economy needs a strong transition over the next three decades, a relatively short time. All sectors in the economy need to seek ways to reduce GHG emissions, and this could change activities, industry processes and technologies in order to make the deep cuts in GHG emissions happen. This is the meaning of the economic transition toward to a low‐carbon economy. The findings of the present paper include: a significant transition in the energy supply sector; a high rate of electrification in all end‐use sectors; and a technology transition in the transport sector. Transitions will also occur in the traditional industrial sectors, including steel making, cement manufacture, and the chemical sector. The availability of low‐cost renewable energy could change the allocation of industries, which could potentially have a strong impact on regional economic development. Deep cuts in CO₂ emissions in China need not be a burden for economic development, as the IPAC results show there will be a more than 1.5% increase of gross domestic product by 2050 in the deep cut scenario compared with the baseline scenario.     

Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.     

高碳经济如何向低碳经济转变

近年来,能源短缺和环境污染问题成为全球性焦点问题。尤其是在金融危机之后,各国在应对措施上,以开发清洁能源、新能源和节能减排产业等为基本内容的绿色产业革命正在悄然兴起,展现出向节能低碳经济转变的良好势头。其中,传统经济增长模式如何向低碳经济转移是关键。文章将传统经济模式定义为高碳模式。首先概述高碳经济与低碳经济,对二者的构成指标进行分析;然后对两种经济发展模式进行比较,分别从产业层面、机制层面与社会层面三大方面予以分析,找出二者不同之处;最后对高碳经济向低碳经济转变进行研究,指出应以产业结构转变为先带动其他层面,并提出了相应的措施。     

Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Robèrt et al. [2].     

Community foresight for urban sustainability: Insights from the Citizens Science for Sustainability (SuScit) project

A key strength of backcasting is arguably the emphasis it places upon envisaging longer-term distant futures, allowing participants and users to think beyond incremental changes in their current lived experience and to embrace the more radical and disruptive socio-technical changes which may be necessary to deliver sustainability. In so doing, however, backcasting may run the risk of obscuring significant differences in current lived experience, negating alternative problem framings and normatively derived views of what constitutes sustainability. This paper reports an innovative UK attempt to develop an inclusive ‘bottom-up’ community foresight process for urban sustainability research. Unlike most backcasting studies, the methodology was initially grounded in an exploration of the community participants' current lived experience and understandings of sustainability. Given the particular purpose of the study the primary outcome from the work was structured around the articulation of a ‘community-led’ agenda for urban sustainability research, rather than an explicit normative vision and transition pathway. However, the methodology could easily be adapted for use in other contexts, and showed potential to contribute to the formation of local ‘transition arenas’: facilitating network formation and building capacity for local sustainability initiatives and experiments.     

Carbon offsets as an economic alternative to large-scale logging: a case study in Guyana

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic viability of carbon-offset projects that avoid logging in Guyana's forests. The results of this case study illustrate the cost effectiveness of alternative land-use options that reduce deforestation and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This analysis demonstrates that using Guyana's rainforests for climate change mitigation can generate equivalent revenue to that of conventional large-scale logging without detrimental environmental impacts. At a 12% discount rate, the break-even price for carbon is estimated to be about US$ 0.20/tC. This estimate falls toward the low range of carbon prices for existing carbon offset projects that avoid deforestation.     

发达国家低碳经济发展战略走向及思考

全球气候变暖的趋势下,西方发达国家纷纷推出低碳经济发展战略与政策。这些政策措施主要表现为：改造传统高碳产业,加强低碳技术创新;积极发展可能源能源与新型清洁能源;应用市场机制与经济杠杆,促使企业减碳;加强国际范围内的减碳协作等。对我国发展低碳经济的启示是：必须尽快提出低碳经济战略,建立起低碳经济法律保障体系,加强低碳技术创新与制度创新,大力发展低碳产业群,激励企业从事低碳生产与经营等。     

西部地区土地资源可持续利用评估系统研究

土地资源利用系统是一个复杂而巨大的社会、经济和生态系统,传统的定性与定量方法难以有效地解决土地资源利用系统的问题.本文从区域可持续发展理论出发,以系统动力学的理论与方法为系统分析和建模的主要方法,建立了土地资源利用系统主要因果关系模型、土地资源利用动态流模型和动态仿真模型,通过计算机实现了土地资源利用系统的政策分析和动态模拟,得出优化方案.为成功解决西部土地资源利用的矛盾问题提供一种思路,从而为促进西部经济、社会、环境协调发展做出相应的贡献.     

Environmental cost-benefit analysis of alternative timing strategies in greenhouse gas abatement: A data envelopment analysis approach

Assessing the benefits of climate policies is complicated due to ancillary benefits: abatement of greenhouse gases also reduces local air pollution. The timing of the abatement measures influences both the economic costs and ancillary benefits. This paper conducts efficiency analysis of ten alternative timing strategies, taking into account the ancillary benefits. We apply the approach by Kuosmanen and Kortelainen [Valuing Environmental Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Ecological Economics 62 (2007), 56-65], which does not require prior valuation of the environmental impacts. The assessment is based on synthetic data from a dynamic applied general equilibrium model calibrated to The Netherlands. Our assessment shows that if one is only interested in GHG abatement at the lowest economic cost, then equal reduction of GHGs over time is preferred. If society is willing to pay a premium for higher ancillary benefits, an early mid-intensive reduction strategy is optimal.     

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization

This paper presents an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue. We first describe the motivation behind this scenario exercise and introduce the main scenario features and characteristics, in both qualitative and quantitative terms. Altogether, we analyze three ‘baseline’ scenarios of different socio-economic and technological developments that are assumed not to include any explicit climate policies. We then impose a range of climate stabilization targets on these baseline scenarios and analyze in detail the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The scenarios were developed by the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework that encompasses detailed representations of the principal GHG-emitting sectors—energy, industry, agriculture, and forestry. The main analytical findings from our analysis focus on the implications of salient uncertainties (associated with scenario baselines and stabilization targets), on feasibility and costs of climate stabilization efforts, and on the choice of appropriate portfolios of emissions abatement measures. We further analyze individual technological options with regards to their aggregated cumulative contribution toward emissions mitigation during the 21st century as well as their deployment over time. Our results illustrate that the energy sector will remain by far the largest source of GHG emissions and hence remain the prime target of emissions reduction. Ultimately, this may lead to a complete restructuring of the global energy system. Climate mitigation could also significantly change the relative economics of traditional versus new, more climate friendly products and services. This is especially the case within the energy system, which accounts for the largest share of emissions reductions, but it is also the case in the agriculture and forestry sectors, where emissions reduction and sink enhancement measures are relatively more modest.